My federal election guide is at long last open for business – note the link on the sidebar below the Crikey Daily Mail ad. It could have done with another proof read, so apologies for any broken links, misplaced slabs of text or references to Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister that might remain. Entries will be progressively updated/corrected/tarted up in the weeks to come.
Miscellaneous recent happenings:
• Nominations have closed, and the ballot paper draw will be conducted tomorrow. The Australian Electoral Commission informs us there are 14,030,528 names on the electoral roll: click here for astoundingly detailed age and gender breakdowns by electorate.
• The Age reports the High Court will hear a constitutional challenge by GetUp! against the closure of the electoral rolls on the evening the writs are issued, as provided for by the Howard government’s 2005 electoral law changes.
• ABC TV’s The Gruen Nation and The Chaser’s Yes We Canberra! cleaned up in the ratings on Wednesday, recording 1.6 million and 1.5 million viewers respectively. This brings to mind a growing field of study in the United States on the impact of “soft news” (usual suspects: Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert) as a bona fide campaign information source for those bored by or cynical of the established news media institutions.
• As in 2007, Google has put together an election site which will come into its own, at least for my purposes, when polling booth locations are added as promised “closer to election day”.
Horse race stuff:
• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports Labor internal polling has them at 50-50 in Hasluck and Swan, but trailing 53-47 in Canning. Labor are also said to be expecting a Greens preference split of about 65-35 compared with 76-24 in 2007. It is noted that a lower flow of Greens preferences is expected in Hasluck in particular as both the Greens and the Liberals have endorsed Aboriginal candidates.
• This is how Brisbane academic and blogger Mark Bahnisch sees his local turf:
Longman is looking good for the ALP, with 20 year old LNP candidate Wyatt Roy failing to swing voters. Petrie is showing more evidence of a swing towards the Coalition, though the LNP candidate Dean Teasdale is low profile and Labor holds it by a relatively solid margin compared to its two neighbours. (Teasdale initially expressed scepticism about the rail promise, only to have the Coalition leadership match the funding later in the afternoon.) Dickson is looking very bad for its incumbent MP Peter Dutton, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara able to capitalise on his failed attempt to defect to the safer seat of McPherson.
Electorate-level news nuggets:
Robertson (Labor 0.1%): Belinda Neal has opted not to run as an independent in her seat of Robertson, contrary to widespread earlier speculation. AAP refers to “reports Ms Neal was angling for a spot in the NSW parliament”, assuming there are any left for Labor after the voters are done with them.
Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Queensland’s Crime and Misconduct Commission has dismissed 17 allegations of misconduct relating to corporate credit card use against Labor’s candidate for Dawson, Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. The allegations have been the subject of newspaper advertising by the Liberal National Party candidate, George Christensen. Brunker reacted to the news by complaining of “a serial pest out there in the Whitsundays who instigated all this”.
There’s always one. In fact, there’s often several. Certainly this campaign’s had a few:
Chifley (Labor 20.7%): With less than a week left before the closure of nominations, the Liberals were forced to disendorse a candidate whose preselection marked an embarrassing failure for its candidate-vetting procedures. David Barker is a conservative Christian of marked eccentricity, and according to Imre Salusinszky of The Australian was “never grilled by a full preselection panel and was interviewed only by phone before being chosen”. Astoundingly given the party’s form with Husic, Barker wrote on his Facebook page: “We ran a big risk running a guy who holds these views against a Muslim candidate.” He was promptly replaced by grocery store owner Venus Priest.
Flinders (Liberal 8.2%): Initial Labor candidate Adrian Schonfelder was a casualty of the first week, after he said Tony Abbott’s conservative social positions were “influencing people to take their own lives”. Schonfelder apologised and soon after withdrew as candidate, saying a car accident on the Friday had left him “shocked and incapacitated”.
Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Liberal candidate Charles Camenzuli has received unwelcome publicity in the past week after Channel Nine revealed he had been criticised by a Supreme Court judge. The court ordered Camenzuli to stop publishing criticisms of building industry rival Beechwood Homes on his website, which the judge deemed “motivated by personal spite”.
HSO
What is your professional opinion of the alternative offerings on mental health?
Actually, the best comment I heard re Rudd’s illness was on the ABC. They mentioned it being something he had in common with Latham, wtte: “Latham had some trouble with his spleen in 2004 – some would say he still does.”
Abbott’s been trying to trump Labor on nearly every issue lately. Who knows? – If this reflects well on Labor, maybe Abbott will announce he’s sick this weekend.
Cheryl Kernot, wot the Pauline Hanson of the other side, whatever that might be? Insufferable.
@Mick S/996
Thats what I’ll be doing on the 21st of August.
Greens 1, Labor 2nd, Libs Last.
[When did Kernot come back to Australia? Only recently she was reported living in London and active in the expats Labor branch.]
When she heard that Diogenes was in England 😉
[Sam and Charles Wyly, Dallas billionaire investors known for their support of conservative candidates and causes, made $550 million in undisclosed profits through 13 years of insider trading, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit filed Thursday.]
Real Republicans then?
The Labor Party drew the top spot in Ryan which can only be a good thing and could still be a Labor gain in Queensland with the two Tories out to split the vote for each other. A look at what the bookies make of this seat will be interesting.
I notice on the ballot positions for SA that Labor are ahead of the Liberals in 7 of the 11 seats.
Annabel Digance got top of the ticket in Boothby which will help her chances as well, and Rick Sarre is above Pyne.
Aguirre
So would Abbott have to trump Rudd and announce he has something terminal? Sorry, feeble attempt at sick humour there.
Hopefully though, his time as Leader of Opposition is “terminal”, and I don’t mean by elevation to the PM-ship.
I never had much time for Kernot, back in the day.
But I find it all pretty sad that she is running again, apparently for the senate.
Doubt if she has much of a base, it is very late to run – so why put herself through it.
Her stated reasons on TV tonight are clearly nonsense – she was never able to do what she is claiming and will be never be able to so if elected an indi senator.
I still think its pretty sad. No pathetic is more accurate.
When are polling places released?
s46 of the Constitution gives the Parliament the power to determine how cases concerning the qualifications of members of Parliament shall be dealt with. The Parliamentary Disqualification Act 1975 vests exclusive jurisdiction in such cases in the High Court. Any person can take an action before the High Court alleging that a member should be disqualified under ss44 and 45.
Dio, if my memory is correct he refused to answer questions when the Senate held an inquiry into the affair. There was some talk of him being compelled and Fielding, the cretin, nobbled that from happening. There is still suspicion that he was up to his armpits in the whole affair. The apology is good, answering the questions would have given it some integrity.
I note that the boy Wyatt Roy, standing for the LNP in Longman, has listed his occupation on the AEC candidate site as “farmer”
ROFL
Mackellar only has 3 HoR candidates. Three!!!
speers hosting a panel on APAC
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Thanks for that Psephos. Obviously that section overrides s 39B(1A)(b) which gives the Federal Court jurisdiction over any matter arising under the Constitution or involving it’s jurisdiction.
[Full candidate lists are now up]
Woo Hoo! I live in Tony’s electorate. The Australian Sex Party drew the poll position! Also see that the Secular Party of Australia is standing a candidate. Do they have candidates in other seats or are they giving Warringah voters an option on the other end of the spectrum from Abbott/Pell?
I’m an old Labor man, but Cheryl’s OK with me …
gloryconsequence @ 1011
According to AEC website, polling places for casting early personal votes (as opposed to postal) will be announced on 2 August. Perhaps they will all be announced then, although I can’t see a date on the site.
Last word should be interpretation
Rudd’s gall bladder is history. SkyNews repeating that Rudd has offered to campaign more broadly. Gillard graciously accepting.
Cheers Allan.
[SkyNews repeating that Rudd has offered to campaign more broadly. Gillard graciously accepting.]
Is this what the media wants? A nice mediaeval morality play?
Richo on The Nation – “I am predicting that Labor will lose 10-12 seats”
‘I would just like to bring my learning from all my experiences…. to change the way that politics is done in this country…’
[Rudd’s gall bladder is history. SkyNews repeating that Rudd has offered to campaign more broadly. Gillard graciously accepting.]
Now let’s get down to business electing a worthy government.
[Is this what the media wants? A nice mediaeval morality play?]
Yep. They hope that Tony will bring back the Inquisition.
Kernot running in NSW might cause some grief for Rhiannon. I’m sure there are many disaffected moderates that will be looking for an alternative to an expenses rorter and unreconstructed Communist.
Scarpat. Good one!
billy
Yep that was my memory of it as well. Turnbull never even managed an apology which reflected very poorly on him but was typical of a narcissist.
GG
Rhiannon was fulsome in welcoming Kernot. A preference deal may well be in the offiing.
Much as I dislike Abetz, I do think s44(i) needs to be amended. Australia is now a multinational society and it is unfair to expect people born in other countries to jump through all these hoops to escape their former citizenship. Some countries don’t allow their citizens to renounce their citizenship (I think Turkey is one). Australian citizens should not be subject to the whims of foreign governments in the exercise of their rights as citizens. How is a person supposed to know if they are “entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or a citizen of a foreign power”? In certain circumstances, for example, any Jew is “entitled to the rights or privileges” of Israeli citizenship – I don’t think anyone has ever dared to bring a case based on that premise, but it would be interesting.
3 weeks to go fellow Poll Bludgers, and my first daily wrap of campaign to date:
1. Hate to say it as a former member of the Fourth Estate but there appears to be appear a remarkably (and unique in my experience) rough ride being given to the Prime Minister, even by former ALP supporters, staffers and the ABC. No, you are not imagining it – but it is not because they are all barracking for the Tone. It is to a large degree because they are hedging their bets and do not want to be seen to be ALP supporters if the Liberals win. Well, that’s my theory. Can’t think of anything else that makes sense.
2. Polls are on average, probably fairly correct, which if you actually look at them overall and the trends, means the ALP will win relatively OK. Remember that about the polls -they need to be averaged and look at the trend. And repeated.
3. I do not think many people listen to Mark Latham any more. Maybe his mum. He is a loser, and very sore, and an apparently rather ill one at that. Forget him, the rest of the world has.
4. Speaking of Relevance Deprivation Syndrome, Cheryl Kernot’s run for a Senate seat is another donation to the AEC. If she gets 1% or more I will donate $100 to a charity of William’s choice.
5. Erica Betz will probably survive but I know as having had to investigate this provision about citizenship before for another candidate, I can assure you that if Erica is knocked out of this election, then the vote will be counted as if he wasn’t there, all hsi votes passed onto the next preference down the ballot paper. And once his term expires mid next year he could fill a casual Liberal vacancy after that. If the Liberals still want him. Surely they will realize life is so much better without him. Or maybe the Tasmanian Liberals prefer him on the Mainland?
6. Looking at the landscape at the moment and if an election was to be held tomorrow, I believe the result: ALP 79, LNP 67, IND 3, GRN 1.
6. Finally, the momentum will swing back to the ALP. Watch it happen.
Good night all.
PS Kevin will come back and campaign like all hell for Julia and it will help.
Oh no, not the Spanish Inquisition!
Kernot will poll 200 votes.
Boerwar,
Gillard was fulsome in praising Rudd. Do you think there is a preference deal in the offing.
Kernot’s running interference against the Greens.
(1) Where possible they should take all the available steps.
(2) For the rest, a stat dec that they renounce and abjure all o/s rights not enjoyed by Australian citizens ought to do the trick.
There is no doubt in my mind that it is potentially a serious conflict of interest situation.
Independently thinking.
Do you really think that those in the media are hedging their bets?
Just looking at the Senate candidates for SA. Nice to see Mark Aldridge and Michelle Drummond are both running. It wouldn’t be an upper house ballot in SA without them…
“…if Gillard loses her brand will be damaged… I mean, she could come back one day, but… well, she could still win, so…”
*shudder*
Diogs,
I’m sure if Turnbull had apologised at the time of utegate that he would probably still be leader of the LIbs.
GG
Rhiannon was fulsome. For the rest, you would probably know more than I would. I simply can’t understand why Kernot would bother, egomaniacal narcissism aside.
Boerwar,
She still wants to make a difference.
I wish her well.
From the Ghost Who Tweets: Nielsen: LNP 52 – ALP 48
Psphos,
I’ll donate $100 to your preferred charity if she scores less than 200 votes.
Care to match me.
Abetz’s “apology” was as sneaky and dishonest as everything else he does.
He said: “I am not only sorry to Malcolm Turnbull but to the Australian people and any anguish that may have been occasioned to Kevin Rudd and other people.”
He didn’t actually apologise for any specific thing he had done, only and “anguish” that “may have been occasioned” to Rudd. If he was genuinely contrite, he would have confessed to exactly what he did. As any Catholic can tell you, confession must precede absolution. He should also have apologised by name to Swan and the car dealer, whom he had accused of corruptly seeking a favour.
GG
I had thought of her as someone who was doing well, post-politics and rather admired her resiliance and her willingness to contribute.
But, apart from causing confusion and uncertainty, what difference could she possibly make running for the Senate?
[From the Ghost Who Tweets: Nielsen: LNP 52 – ALP 48]
Wowsers.
Boerwar,
Cheer up!
It could be you and Psephos on a joint ticket.