Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Galaxy: 50-50

Whom to believe? The first two polls conducted during the election campaign proper have turned in wildly different results. Newspoll has Labor with a lead so overwhelming that The Australian describes it as “solid”. On the primary vote Labor holds the lead for the first time since mid-April, with their own vote steady on 42 per cent and the Coalition down two points to 38 per cent. That translates into a landslide-winning two-party preferred split of 55-45, compared with 53-47 at the previous poll three weeks ago. We are told that Julia Gillard now holds a 30 point lead as preferred prime minister, up from 24 per cent last time. Galaxy on the other hand has turned in its second poll in as many days, this one conducted on Saturday night from a sample of 800 (yesterday’s poll, which had Labor ahead 52-48, was conducted in the last days before the election was called), and it has the two parties tied on two-party preferred, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 38 per cent and the Coalition up two to 44 per cent. However, Julia Gillard maintains huge leads on attitudinal questions, in particular “more in touch with voters” (56-28). Both polls have the Greens on 12 per cent. The margins of error are about 3 per cent for Newspoll and 3.5 per cent for Galaxy.

UPDATE: Full results from Newspoll here and Galaxy here. Newspoll has sought personal ratings on Julia Gillard for the first time, which have her at 48 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott’s ratings have sagged heavily: approval is down six to 36 per cent, disapproval up 10 to 51 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 53-29 to 57-27. Both polls also ask voters to identify the best party to handle the economy, climate change and asylum seekers/border security. Oddly, Labor gets better results on items two and three (and the same on item one) from Galaxy.

Other news:

• According to Sid Maher in The Weekend Australian, Coalition polling in the Brisbane area has it “12 points clear of Labor in one marginal seat, and Labor sources concede that the party’s primary vote remains below 40 per cent in some key areas”. Discussing internal polling in Queensland on Insiders yesterday, Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail spoke of “seats that are next to each other, one which has got a 5, 6 per cent swing against Labor, the other one hasn’t budged, no swing whatsoever”. He also related that “even the Liberals are saying they can’t make it in Herbert”.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports leaked party research indicates Labor has been focus group testing television advertisements featuring Julia Gillard attacking Tony Abbott on health, education, broadband and WorkChoices, unified by the theme: “Don’t let Tony Abbott take us backwards”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports police are investigating what appear to have been gun shots fired into the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hughes.

• Two men have been reported for allegedly assaulting a Liberal volunteer who was on the campaign trail with Jassmine Wood, candidate for the marginal Labor Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. The incident reportedly followed a dispute over the Liberals’ policies on asylum seekers.

• Drew Warne-Smith of The Australian reports GetUp! will take the Australian Electoral Commission to court over its determination that it would not accept enrolments placed through its OzEnrol.com.au website, which sought to facilitiate online enrolment by having the required signature filled out through a mouse of trackpad.

• Malcolm Mackerras has tipped a slightly increased majority for Labor, of 85 seats to the Coalition’s 65.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research, conducted from Tuesday to Sunday, concurs with Newspoll at 55-45. This is the same result as the previous week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39 per cent, Labor steady on 41 per cent and the Greens steady on 13 per cent. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (four points to 52 per cent) and disapproval (three points to 30 per cent), while Abbott’s three point gain on approval (40 per cent) comes out of a lower disapproval. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from her debut from 49-29 to 53-26. Also featured are most important election issues, best party to handle them and some hard-to-read stuff on “Australian values”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,348 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor; Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 26 of 27
1 … 25 26 27

  1. [Oh so she wasn’t far away from your place then?]

    Townsville airport is right in the hub of the city, so no… not really that far.

    We like our little piece of paradise up here, i’m going to tell everyone I meet to vote Libs because Julia wants to turn this place into an immigrant dumping ground because they’ve stuffed up the southern cities, now they wanna stuff our piece of paradise as well.

  5. cuppa @ 1220

    [And how about the way they get Dennis Shanahan onto ‘Lateline’ and ‘Nightlife with Tony Delroy’ to talk about Newspoll results, when the ABC has its own polling analyst, Antony Green. Why use the guy from the commercial media organisation, and not their own in-house professional?]

    This is part of the Murdochisation of our national broadcaster – forget Abbott’s shrieking about boat people – the real ‘invasion’ here has been carried forward successfully by stealth in the last decade. It started with the subornment of the ABC Board by Liberal Party hacks and culture warriors appointed by John Howard, including the former Chairman Donald McDonald, revisionist and racist historian, Keith Windschuttle, and the ‘Ann Coulter’ of Australian right wing media hacks, Janet Albrechtsen, then progressed to the management appointments of the inept Mark Scott.

    These right wing 5th columnists and reactionary fellow travellers have overseen the emasculation of the ABC, allowing previous Communications Ministers like Richard Alston to knobble ABC news and current affairs by constant accusations of left wing bias from without, and supporting management and board criticism from within.

    The result is a weakened and defeated ABC that has been subject to a hostile takeover by external influences including News Ltd hacks filtering into all aspects of ABC on air news and current affairs to the detriment of their internal resources.

    God knows how many right wing commentators and reactionary News Ltd opinion writers will infest the new ABC 24 hour news when it lumbers into lugubrious action this Thursday – methinks it will be a pale and ghostly imitation of SkyNews, with worse sets and less real content, but many of the usual suspects that currently overrun the Murdoch media empire.

  6. 1253

    The Greens have no leverage when the ALP and Coalition agree which is most of the time. Half the votes in the Senate are required to block anything and unfortunately the Greens won`t win enough seats to get that this election.

  9. Thats BS.

    Gillard has been all over the news sprouting how she’s going to turn Townsville into a great big dumping ground for all these people they are letting into the country. This is her big solution to fixing the problems with the capital cities… DO NOTHING and then move the same problems and troubles elsewhere.

    Townsville has been ear marked as the Labor dumping ground for their infrastructure and immigration policy failures and I hope to christ the local member here has the smarts to attack this policy for what it is… an attack on the lifestyle of the people of north queensland.

  10. [they’ve stuffed up the southern cities]

    Actually, we’re seeing new life and new economic hope in this city at last, thanks to “evil” Labor’s policies and immigration, after the Libs gutted it and left it for dead.

  11. Who the hell is Ross Cameron, and does lateline simply ring up the Liberal Party to be handed a list of stooges that get interviewed?

  12. [ Gillard has been all over the news sprouting how she’s going to turn Townsville into a great big dumping ground for all these people they are letting into the country. ]

    Where?

  13. [Actually, we’re seeing new life and new economic hope in this city at last, thanks to “evil” Labor’s policies and immigration, after the Libs gutted it and left it for dead.]

    And you are from where? Sydney?

    Hows your grass looking mate?

  14. As an example of the debasement of the ABC – why on earth is ABC Lateline Business now interviewing Ross Cameron, failed Liberal MP and serial adulterer?

    He has just been given a free ride by the ineffectual Ticky Fullerton to spew snide Liberal party propaganda across the airwaves for the last 10 minutes. He was introduced as if he’d be interviewed as a representative of his current business involvement on some financial and business matters, but he’s done nothing more than mouth Liberal platitudes and talking points for the entire interview without demur from the hopelessly inept Fullerton.

    And our taxes are paying yet again for this sort of idiocy?

  15. Was on the TV just then.

    The election debate will be on the same date and time as the Masterchef final.

    So it’s a moot point everyone. *No-one* is going to watch the debate

  17. [And you are from where? Sydney?

    Hows your grass looking mate?]

    Adelaide actually.

    Grass is looking fine actually. Mind you, it has been bucketing down.

  19. @1264, that was atrocious. The sooner the liberal stooges are expunged from the ABC board and management the better.

  21. [Truthy, on average you can bet they are greener that yours!]

    I hope not. Truthy hates brown grass. He thinks its coming to destroy his way of life.

  26. I Have just caught up with tonights posts and come to the startling realisation I come from the same town as Truthy. The sad fact for Truthy is that Mooney is going to win Herbert with a very, very large swing.

    It has to be driving you crackers ehhhhhhh Truthy. Three state members. In about 32 days a Federal Member. And a council run buy a bunch of Liberals that can’t even run a budget and are generaly on the nose with everyone in Townsville. They even get slamed by the local Murdoch newspaper which incedentaly is giving Mooney a real good run.

    Putting up with all that at one time has to hurt Truthy.

  28. Gusface @ 1270

    [Tricky thinks she is still on landline]

    On the evidence of her abysmal interview with the adulterer and hypocrite Cameron, she should be sent back from whence she came tout suite!

  29. [Gillard has been all over the news sprouting how she’s going to turn Townsville into a great big dumping ground for all these people they are letting into the country. ]

    Where and when has she said anything like this, (SNIP: Unparliamentary language deleted – The Management)?

  36. [TSOP maybe wakes up as a character on The Cosby Show would be better]

    “(In a Bill Cosby voice) Now Truthy, I know you’re mighty sore about waking up here. Not sure how you got here myself. But you gotta remember, it’s like eating a pudding pop. It’s sweet at first, but eventually you get to the stick. That’s where you are – the stick. Now let’s go watch Ghost Dad!”

  42. [Despite the deal, Greens leader Bob Brown has told voters to make their own choices. Senator Brown said said as far as he was aware the deal was not negotiated on specific policy compromises.]

    “As far as he was aware?” Not only does the Leader of the Greens not endorse the agreement made by his own party, he doesn’t even know the terms of the agreement! Preference deals are not usually policy deals, but Brown hasn’t even found out what his own party has agreed to.

  43. Who would be more ashamed in that situation? Truthy or Julia? 😆 (I naturally assume copious amounts of alcohol was consumed)

  44. Psephos, you should’ve seen Bob on Lateline, he sounded less like the left wing activist he once was an more a whinging old fart whose time has passed him. Sad really.

  47. [I Have just caught up with tonights posts and come to the startling realisation I come from the same town as Truthy. The sad fact for Truthy is that Mooney is going to win Herbert with a very, very large swing.]

    Like he did in the council elections eh?

    Care to tell us why the punters of Townsville tossed him out on his arse in that one?

    It wasn’t close either, it was a whitewash… every Labor councillor bar 1 tossed into the dustbins of time.

  49. [It wasn’t close either, it was a whitewash… every Labor councillor bar 1 tossed into the dustbins of time.]
    No one believes you because you are a racist, a homophone and a constant teller of untruths.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 26 of 27
1 … 25 26 27