The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents “conducted over the weekend” which shows Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, the same as recorded in the snap poll of 800 respondents conducted on the day Julia Gillard assumed the leadership. However, Labor has lost ground on the primary vote to the Greens, down two points to 39 per cent with the Greens up three to 14 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 42 per cent. In spite of everything, two-thirds of respondents are said to support the plan on asylum seekers announced last week by Gillard, although “about six in 10” believe the measures “were not well thought out and were rushed”. The Fairfax broadsheets should come good with a Nielsen poll later this evening.
UPDATE: The Nielsen poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, concurs on every particular except the Greens vote, which is at 13 per cent rather than 14 per cent. The sting in the tail for the government here is that it comes off the back of a quirkily favourable 55-45 result from Nielsen immediately after the leadership change. The poll has Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 56-35, little different from her 55-34 lead previously. Approval ratings for Gillard have been gauged for the first time, and they have her at 54 per cent approve and 32 per cent disapprove. Reversing the last result, Tony Abbott is up on both approval (three points to 43 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 51 per cent), the latter shift probably reflecting an unfriendly sample last time.
A series of “best party to handle” questions turns up a surprise in giving the Coalition only a very slight 44-42 lead on asylum seekers, and when the Greens are included in the mix Labor’s score shows a six point improvement since the question was last asked in March. However, Labor would be alarmed to have slipped a further three points on the economy, with the Coalition opening up a dangerous 53-39 lead. Labor has taken four points off the Coalition as best party to handle health since March, now holding a commanding 57-33 lead that goes a fair way to explaining their latest television ad. Labor retains commanding leads on education (53-36), the environment (51-35) and industrial relations (58-34).
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has Labor up slightly from 54-46 to 55-45, although the primary votes suggest rounding has a fair bit to do with the improvement: both parties are down one on the primary vote, Labor to 41 per cent and Coalition to 38 per cent, with the Greens up two to 13 per cent. The supplementary questions are interesting: Julia Gillard’s mining tax changes have gone down well, supported by 50 per cent and opposed by 28 per cent, with 58 per cent rating Gillard’s handling of the issue “good” against 25 per cent “poor”. However, 41 per cent believed mining companies wielded “too much influence” in the process. The asylum seeker announcement slightly improved Labor’s position on the issue, which 56 per cent continue to think “too soft” (down 11 points) against 21 per cent for “taking the right approach” (up three), and the Coalition lead as best-party-to-handle has narrowed from 34-23 to 31-24. In spite of everything Gillard’s handling of the issue has 42 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval. Questions on the likelihood of WorkChoices being reintroduced under a Coalition government are little changed since the question was asked six weeks ago, with most believing they would and few happy about the prospect.
[I thought you were part of the don’t look back crowd re the argy bargy of politics.]
I don’t regard being called a liar as part of the normal argy bargy of politics, and particular not when it comes from a fellow Labor supporter.
[Has Bob Brown demanded to be included in the debates yet?]
If he gets in then no doubt Warren Truss will say he should get on too!
Psephos,
And you’ve been involved in ALP politics for how long?
TSOP
Because those young people are likely to be tech savvy, who uses the internet a lot, whose single issue for this election would be the internet filter, acting as a big brother on them?
Psephos
Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
August 21 is extremely tempting for Labor because it’s the anniversary of Labor’s greatest ever federal election win, in 1943 …Also Landeryou is generally very well informed on Labor matters. But issuing the writs on Monday would mean quite A LOT of people failing to enrol in time.
bet ya because of that it will be 28th
My say
Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
“Ron i thought from what i said you would realise i am agreeing with you,”
sorry , i mis read what yu said there My Say , and a smiley from me as forgot how to do thems
I think a few people here owe PVO an apology. He’s clearly not a Liberal stooge.
jaundiced view @ 3703
[How is it ‘utter nonsense’ to say there are ‘arguable implications’ in this when the media is tumescent with such implications being argued? ]
You are putting the cart before the horse – does the argument about ‘implications’ have any merit independent of the media’s obsessive focus on the trivia?
In my estimation it does not, and that is the crux of the issue – is there any intrinsic value in a ‘debate’ about any matter canvassed in the media that they regard as important just because it has been raised? Does the mere publishing of a banner headline in a newspaper constitute a substantive debate in the public arena about that issue, obsessively feeding on itself until it is the entire focus? Is the size of the headline the measure of the importance of the issue?
Clearly in your view it is the fact of the media’s entire energies being bent towards an, in this case, essentially manufactured narrative that counts, not whether the story itself has any internal logic, or value.
It is the ends justifying the means, and is entirely worthless as an exercise in public debate on the issues of value or moment.
You’d make an excellent journalist ….
Maybe Brown could debate Truss. I’d watch that.
Morgan? Morgan? Bueller?
I enjoyed your Newsradio interview William. Although when you agreed that QLD could cost Labor a few seats, would havelike to hear you say that Labor could also win some there (such as Ryan, Herbert), to negate some of the losses
PVO seems to have matured in recent months and is turning out to be reasonably balanced and incisive.
Hey Glen.
Maybe a cage match, Julia, Tone, Bob and Warren. Last one standing wins the debate?
[If he gets in then no doubt Warren Truss will say he should get on too!]
Maybe Fielding too? Perhaps the leader of the Socialist Alliance? Every independent running? 😀
Don’t worry Green supporters, I am just being facetious!
[Maybe a cage match, Julia, Tone, Bob and Warren. Last one standing wins the debate?]
The trouble is that the OO stogges will claim the right to control the exit gate.
i’d like to see Laurie Oakes in sumo jocks enter as a late surprise!
stogges = stooges
kakaru
[Anybody else sick and tired of Abbott’s crocodile tears over the ‘assassination’ of Rudd?
Abbott and co. were all too gutless to do it to Howard back in ‘07.]
But wait! Didn’t the Rabbott tell of the call he received from his illustrious father Howard congratulating him on Rudd’s scalp.
Mmmmmm…………………………………..
Julia v Julie
Tony v Wayne
Fair is Fair 😀
Some one else in the Liberal Party, other than Bishop, must have got up PVO’s nose.
Something doesn’t compute with me.
[i’d like to see Laurie Oakes in sumo jocks enter as a late surprise!]
And Shanna would like to think he was Wallaby Bob McMaster. (T
[Because those young people are likely to be tech savvy, who uses the internet a lot, whose single issue for this election would be the internet filter, acting as a big brother on them?]
Which will probably push them to the Greens. Whilst only anecdotal, the young adults I know (including my youngest brother) are not happy about the filter but sure as hell aren’t voting/preferencing Abbott.
Glen
I will resist the obvious sumo joke in a sense of fair play. 😉
BK!!! What a blast from the past!!!! I grew up in Mudgeeraba where the local pub was known as Wallaby Bob’s after the great man. heaps of wrestling photo’s on the wall.
COme on rua, give it to us!
Re PVO:
Houston, I have contacts now.
[Has Bob Brown demanded to be included in the debates yet?]
Yes
Unless it is a match between Joe Hockey and Dick Adams 😀
[BK!!! What a blast from the past!!!! I grew up in Mudgeeraba where the local pub was known as Wallaby Bob’s after the great man. heaps of wrestling photo’s on the wall.]
middle man
I knew someone would get a laugh out of that one.
Tone is behaving just like the perennial loser of the time, Brocker Cortez.
jenauthor
All this about the “aggressive” Abbott
Umm Rudd swore like a sailor and Latham punches cabbies
Abbott is the perfect gentlement next to those 2
[COme on rua, give it to us!]
Labor whips are off limits. 😉
[Julia v Julie
Tony v Wayne
Fair is Fair]
Maybe a mixed doubles match?
Actually, it is quite historic that the leadership teams of the ALP, the Liberals and the Greens are all a male/female mix.
[And you’ve been involved in ALP politics for how long?]
A long time. I’ve never been called a liar by anyone in the ALP.
Fulvio
[Some one else in the Liberal Party, other than Bishop, must have got up PVO’s nose.
Something doesn’t compute with me.]
I don’t know what PVO has said, would someone like to fill me in???
Perhaps PVO, like Glen recognises that the Coalition do not deserve support.
Was just about to post that AEC link to Allan Moyes,Ruawake.I checked mine there other day.
all male/female mix…. whatch you sayin’ bout Julia and Wayne???
[would havelike to hear you say that Labor could also win some there (such as Ryan, Herbert), to negate some of the losses]
How likely is it that Labor will win Ryan? Not very I’d imagine.
PVO is giving it to Libs re AS issue and made a sarcastic reference being at the Sydney Harbour, and seeing boats made him afraid there was an invasion, but fortunately they were only tourists. False alarm! quite funny really. The Libs spokesman was not amused.
[all male/female mix…. whatch you sayin’ bout Julia and Wayne???]
One has an outie and one has an innie?
The more I see of PVO the more I warm to him. He is slaughtering the appatarchic from the Menzies Foundation.
Middle man
Julia is the male and Wayne is his biatch
dovif
Mmmm……Rudd swore! Boo hoo! Surprise, surprise. Many Aussies do.
Did he do it in public? No!
But the Rabbott sure did when he made derogatory remarks to Roxon & about Gillard.
I think Abbott’s demeaning comments about & to Banton demonstrated the callousness of the man.
yeah i dont mind PVO.
[Abbott is the perfect gentlement next to those 2]
HaHaHa Dovif – you’re kidding, right?
Give PVO the seat of Curtin once that seat warmer Julie Bishop retires.
Psephos,
There are so many rejoinders that it would put your nose out of joint for many years. So, I will exercise self restraint on this occaission. My best suggestion is you buy yourself a beer on me and get over yourself.
middle man
Isn’t it funny re the wrestling. Linda McMahon is having a tilt at preselection for US Senate (yes – Republican).
of course I am jealous of his good looks and bludge of a job.
I think Labor has some chance of winning both Ryan and Bowman. Herbert wouldn’t count as a Labor gain because it’s technically a Labor seat on the new boundaries. I think if Labor’s vote has dropped in Qld, it’s in the regions rather than in Brisbane. That puts Herbert, Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn at risk, but it doesn’t mean that Labor can’t make gains in Brisbane at the same time.
[How likely is it that Labor will win Ryan? Not very I’d imagine.]
Not likely, but Johnson will split the LNP vote. Depends if he intends to pour more crud on the LNP and preferences become toxic between the two.
Any news on Morgan?