Galaxy and Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents “conducted over the weekend” which shows Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, the same as recorded in the snap poll of 800 respondents conducted on the day Julia Gillard assumed the leadership. However, Labor has lost ground on the primary vote to the Greens, down two points to 39 per cent with the Greens up three to 14 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 42 per cent. In spite of everything, two-thirds of respondents are said to support the plan on asylum seekers announced last week by Gillard, although “about six in 10” believe the measures “were not well thought out and were rushed”. The Fairfax broadsheets should come good with a Nielsen poll later this evening.

UPDATE: The Nielsen poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, concurs on every particular except the Greens vote, which is at 13 per cent rather than 14 per cent. The sting in the tail for the government here is that it comes off the back of a quirkily favourable 55-45 result from Nielsen immediately after the leadership change. The poll has Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 56-35, little different from her 55-34 lead previously. Approval ratings for Gillard have been gauged for the first time, and they have her at 54 per cent approve and 32 per cent disapprove. Reversing the last result, Tony Abbott is up on both approval (three points to 43 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 51 per cent), the latter shift probably reflecting an unfriendly sample last time.

A series of “best party to handle” questions turns up a surprise in giving the Coalition only a very slight 44-42 lead on asylum seekers, and when the Greens are included in the mix Labor’s score shows a six point improvement since the question was last asked in March. However, Labor would be alarmed to have slipped a further three points on the economy, with the Coalition opening up a dangerous 53-39 lead. Labor has taken four points off the Coalition as best party to handle health since March, now holding a commanding 57-33 lead that goes a fair way to explaining their latest television ad. Labor retains commanding leads on education (53-36), the environment (51-35) and industrial relations (58-34).

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has Labor up slightly from 54-46 to 55-45, although the primary votes suggest rounding has a fair bit to do with the improvement: both parties are down one on the primary vote, Labor to 41 per cent and Coalition to 38 per cent, with the Greens up two to 13 per cent. The supplementary questions are interesting: Julia Gillard’s mining tax changes have gone down well, supported by 50 per cent and opposed by 28 per cent, with 58 per cent rating Gillard’s handling of the issue “good” against 25 per cent “poor”. However, 41 per cent believed mining companies wielded “too much influence” in the process. The asylum seeker announcement slightly improved Labor’s position on the issue, which 56 per cent continue to think “too soft” (down 11 points) against 21 per cent for “taking the right approach” (up three), and the Coalition lead as best-party-to-handle has narrowed from 34-23 to 31-24. In spite of everything Gillard’s handling of the issue has 42 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval. Questions on the likelihood of WorkChoices being reintroduced under a Coalition government are little changed since the question was asked six weeks ago, with most believing they would and few happy about the prospect.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,025 comments on “Galaxy and Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 80 of 81
1 … 79 80 81

  2. BK, i must say i’m not into wrestling, ancient or modern. my memories of Wallaby Bob extend to riding my pushbike down to the pub to see Dad to ask what’s for dinner, and what time he’d be serving it… and having a look at all the photo’s. and then my mum was the housekeeper for the pub’s live in manager who had four daughters living there. so we used to hangout with the girls after hours (usually in the morning) and playing the video games for free and drinking heaps of free lemonade. ah …. the old days….

  3. GG, I’m sorry that you think it’s acceptable to make false allegations against people (with no evidence), then tell them to get over themselves when they object. This reinforces my views about the hypocrisy of most self-proclaimed Christians I must say.

  4. [that Abbott NEVER gets his hands on the reins of govt. — a think that has given me nightmares.]

    seriously i have already had one

  5. [Isn’t it funny re the wrestling. Linda McMahon is having a tilt at preselection for US Senate (yes – Republican).]

    For Connecticut – a state renown for its wrestling fans 🙂

    Man, I haven’t been to fivethirtyeight for a while. I wonder how the polling is looking (after the Australian election, Pebbles! Don’t get distracted!)

  8. On Contrarians
    Liberal hack quote “180 people have died trying to make the journey to Australia”

    Observer quote (me) “Pity pollies don’t get so wound up about the 1000s who die on the roads each year, for instance.”

    It is all a matter of perspective and focus. Nameless faceless numbers don’t affect our sensibilities … but constant media focus on a few gives people a sense of empathy.

  10. [Abbott swore at the Health Minister didn’t he?]

    No, he just wasn’t speaking “gospel” English at the time… 😉

  11. O thank you fro the bit from that Argus a friend of mine who does a lot of family history has mentioned we may have to pay for this type of record soon

  12. O thank you fro the bit from that Argus a friend of mine who does a lot of family history has mentioned we may have to pay for this type of record soon

  13. [INCLUDING Bob Brown in election debates would be as valid as putting Humphrey Bear up against Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, says a constitutional expert. ]

    Nasty expert. Whats wrong with HBB?

  14. [“Pity pollies don’t get so wound up about the 1000s who die on the roads each year, for instance.”]

    While road tolls are not my specialty, I think the mortality rate may be slightly lower than that.

    I dunno about other places, but in SA road deaths are treated by politicians and other authorities as losses of human lives, not just statistics

  18. Adam

    i bring peaceful chaos here where there is order , but bygones gone , history cann’t be changed whatever it is And there’s not many Roman spartans here to fight th reel infidel enemys of Labor here of Liberals and Greens , and Amigo GG I stand 100% with him against thems

  19. INCLUDING Bob Brown in election debates would be as valid as putting Humphrey Bear up against Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, says a constitutional expert.

    Nasty expert. Whats wrong with HBB?

    I’m curious of why a constitutional expert’s opinion actually matters here. Leader debates have nothing to do with the constitution. They’re media exercises.

    Arguing from authority I think.

    (Not saying Bob should be in the debate by the way)

  20. [AUSTRALIA’S road fatality figures have declined, with a seven per cent drop in the number of people killed in car crashes over the past year.
    There were 1,424 fatalities on the nation’s roads between July 2009 and June 2010, 112 fewer than the previous year, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics.

    This represented a 7.3 per cent drop in fatalities for the period, while the number of deaths from January to June this year was 9.7 per cent lower than the same time last year.]

    Safer cars or better roads?

  21. [“Pity pollies don’t get so wound up about the 1000s who die on the roads each year, for instance.”]

    What a stupid comment. State governments spend many millions on traffic police and road safety campaigns, and have greatly reduced the road toll over the past 30 years, despite the doubling in the number of cars over that time.

    The fact is that coming to Australia by boat is extremely dangerous, and “refugee advocates” who encourage and assist people to do it are partly responsible for the deaths that occur.

  22. My Say

    did yu see my written smiley to you that i mis read your post that was actualy agreeing with me & i mucked up?

  23. TSOP

    The expert was basically saying Bob Brown had as much chance of becoming PM as HBB so he should not be included in a leaders debate because he cannot be PM.

  25. [did yu see my written smiley to you that i mis read your post that was actualy agreeing with me & i mucked up?]

    yes ron thats o,k i happy little Vegemite and thanks for the tips some months ago about the hearing problem and the divise on the tv works very well.
    trying out new aids soon, reading stuff here is really the only way i get my news.

    As dear oh cannot be expected to have the sound on 43mmm

  26. Ron, put : and ) together and you get a smiley appearing after you post. Just leave a space between the end of the sentence and the symbols.

  27. @ Pebbles

    You get my drift though. They can lament such death for the refugees, but road deaths are merely collateral damage (and I was just using it as an example).

    It’s the perspective and focus that is skewed.

    The focus is on the few hundred from boats and the catch-cry is: ‘our borders are being breached!’ — which is utter nonsense, of course.

  28. so a liberal is worried about eh deaths re refugees and reaching aus well surley timor is the answer and what about the sievx

  29. Thanks Rua, Psephos and Benji.

    Fulvio, I’ll be voting Labor – does that help?

    Tom – I’ve moved from a blue-ribbon Liberal seat where my vote counted for precious little (McPherson) to a Labor one (Richmond).

  30. Tweet from Kev.

    “Heading back to Oz tomorrow, looking forward to seeing Marcus then getting back to campaigning in the electorate.”

    🙂

  31. @ Pseph
    [What a stupid comment. State governments spend many millions on traffic police and road safety campaigns, and have greatly reduced the road toll over the past 30 years, despite the doubling in the number of cars over that time.]

    You missed my point. it wasn’t the road deaths per se — it was the unbalanced focus.

    It was seen (by the guy on the Contrarians) as criminal that 180 people had died in the past 10 years (I think he said), yet 80 times that many die on our roads.

    I wasn’t belittling state govt attempts at lowering the toll. All I was saying is that using that yard-stick — as I said the focus, (and the funding perhaps?) is unbalanced.

  32. The next poll that matters will be the one taken exclusively after Julia announces. Mondays Newspoll will be too early.

  33. [It was seen (by the guy on the Contrarians) as criminal that 180 people had died in the past 10 years (I think he said), yet 80 times that many die on our roads. ]

    It is indeed criminal, both as a matter of law and of ethics, to encourage or assist people to try to come to Australia by boat, whether as a people smuggler or a refugee advocate.

  34. Just been on the AEC website and have confirmation that I’m enrolled in Richmond. Thanks to all who replied to my question. Gosh, haven’t lived in a Labor electorate since Fraser in the ACT. Hope Richmond stays that way!

  37. Just looking at the seat of Richmond, it seems to have been an Anthony (as in Doug, Larry etc) fiefdom for most of its history! Are there any other little Anthonys who might want to take over? Heaven forfend.

  38. [It is indeed criminal, both as a matter of law and of ethics, to encourage or assist people to try to come to Australia by boat, whether as a people smuggler or a refugee advocate.]

    I agree Pseph — even one life is criminal — all I am saying is the focus is skewed!!!!

  42. [all I am saying is the focus is skewed!!!!]

    Well, I don’t agree. The road toll results from millions of decisions made by millions of drivers, decisions which governments can influence to some extent but not control. So long as we have cars, we will have a road toll. The deaths of people coming to Australia by boat by contrast, result directly from the actions of a very small number of people, the people smugglers and those who encourage and assist them, all of whom know that what they are doing is putting people’s lives at risk.

  43. In Tasmania there was a case of the ALP and Liberal Leaders refusing to debate the with the Greens leader and the ABC refused to organise and broadcast a two leader debate so there was no televised debate. I think this was 2006. All the Greens need to fix this is a leader in the House of Reps. Adam Bandt for Melbourne!

  44. Lib red hering on road deaths vs boat peoples deaths

    people do not intent go out to kill others on roads , but bleeting hart Refugee advocating know they suport poor desparate people risking there lives on dangerous high seas with very high chanse they’ll drown…and they do !!! there such lack of care for boat peoples could not be more hypocriticol

  47. [Australian shares have closed almost 0.5 per cent lower, reflecting a weak overnight trading session in the United States and a 2.9 per cent slump on Japan’s Nikkei.]
    ABC
    [Australian share market closes lower on rumours of election being called ]
    Australian

    Ho hum. 🙁

  48. I am not a Lib Ron — am very staunchly progressive (read Labor — Greens are unrealistic in their opinions).

    Perhaps I used the wrong example with the road toll — but ALL I was getting at is people dismiss something like the road toll as ‘a fact of life’.

    The focus on boats, whether dangerous, criminal or anything else — is greater than other aspects of life of equal or greater importance in terms of loss of life

    Is it clear what I am trying to say now?

  49. William so wish they had asked you about the Abbott phone call thing. If we needed any further evidence of the MSM’s soft ride of Abbott, the burying of this story is it. Story on ABC radio about Abbott in Qld with no mention of the issue. Mmm

  50. rua

    Boobies were called boobies because hungry sailors could just walk up to them, club them and then eat them.

    Boobies were not used to people, had no fear of them, and would not fly away when approached.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 80 of 81
1 … 79 80 81