Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)

Roy Morgan has again rained on Julia Gillard’s poll parade, with a poll of 800 voters in four Queensland marginals showing Labor no better placed than they were said to be before Kevin Rudd’s demise. The four seats targeted are outer suburban Longman and regional Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt, and if by some coincidence the figures for each are accurate – which is unlikely, as the margin of error on each 200-sample poll is about 7 per cent – Labor stands to lose all except the latter with respective swings of 7.3 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, with no change recorded in Longman. However, it would be more instructive to combine the results and think in terms of a collective swing of a bit below 5 per cent and a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. If consistent across Queensland, this would cost Labor eight seats held actually and two held notionally. Helpfully, three of these seats were covered in Newspoll’s marginal seat survey of Tuesday before last, conducted during Kevin Rudd’s last weekend as Prime Minister, the exception being Leichhardt. This showed a 6 per cent swing from a margin of error of 4 per cent. Presumably Morgan will offer a face-to-face poll from last weekend tomorrow, the first such poll conducted on Gillard’s watch.

There is better news for Labor from The Advertiser, which has Labor leading 56-44 in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, held for Labor on a margin of 5.1 per cent. The survey involved 633 respondents and would have a margin of error of a little below 4 per cent, although this presumes a random sample which The Advertiser probably lacks the expertise to obtain.

Federal preselection news:

• The Socialist Left faction of the Victorian ALP, which dominates the local branches, has chosen ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell as its candidate for the federal preselection for Melbourne, to be vacated on the retirement of Lindsay Tanner. The faction’s secretary, Andrew Giles, had been favoured by some for the position, but agreed to stand aside in favour of Bowtell, whose endorsement is now considered a fait accompli. The preselection will be conducted locally on Sunday and finalised by the party’s public office selection committee on Tuesday.

• Queensland’s troubled Liberal National Party has picked a new candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Labor’s Graham Perrett won from sitting Liberal Gary Hardgrave in 2007, after the original nominee, Michael Palmer (20-year-old son of mining magnate Clive), withdrew citing health concerns. The winner was Malcolm Cole, former Courier-Mail journalist and staffer to former Senator Santo Santoro, who defeated local businessman Steve Smith.

• It’s been noted lately that the New South Wales Liberals are dragging their heels getting candidates in place in important electorates: Lindsay, Parramatta and Greenway. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, these will be resolved over the next fortnight. The Penrith Press reports two candidates have nominated in Lindsay: marketing manager Fiona Scott and casual teacher Margaret Grand.

State preselection news from New South Wales:

• The Nationals’ ground-breaking “open primary” preselection for Tamworth was conducted last weekend, delivering victory to local businessman Kevin Anderson. The ballot was open to anyone registered in the electorate, attracting 4293 voters. Anderson won 2110 vote (49.4 per cent) to 1100 (25.7 per cent) for James Treloar, 648 (15.2 per cent) for Russell Webb and 414 (9.7 per cent) for Mark Rodda, with the distribution of Rodda’s preferences electing Anderson. A similar effort by the Victorian ALP in the Liberal-held state seat of Kilsyth in April only attracted 170, although the only procedural difference was a requirement that participants register online. The winner on that occasion was former electorate officer Vicky Setches with 75 per cent of the vote.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal preselection for the safe Liberal NSW state seat of Baulkham Hills, to be vacated at the election by retiring Wayne Merton, has been postponed after originally being scheduled for tomorrow. The preselection is the latest front in the war between state upper house MP David Clarke and federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, former allies in the Right. At issue is the validity of the membership of 14 Clarke supporters who attempted to join at an infamous Baulkham Hills Young Liberals meeting in Hawke’s electorate office last year, which ended with Hawke calling the police. The Hawke forces are backing state Civil Contractors Federation chief executive David Elliott, who unsuccessfully challenged Clarke for his upper house preselection earlier this year. Clarke supports Damien Tudehope, solicitor and Australian Family Association spokesman Damien Tudehope. Also in the field is Hills Shire deputy mayor Mike Thomas. It appears the preselection will be postponed until the federal election is out of the way, in the likely event that it is called shortly.

• Greens state upper house MP Sylvia Hale, who earlier made what most presumed to be a retirement announcement when she said she would not seek re-election, has announced she will seek to run in the highly winnable lower house seat of Marrickville. She must first win next week’s preselection vote against Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne, the candidate from 2007.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours reports Peter Fraser, former chief-of-staff to John Brogden, might emerge as a starter in the endlessly confusing preselection to choose a successor to Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. The remainder of the field is summarised as “Left numbers woman Gabrielle Upton, independent restaurateur Peter Doyle, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Turnbull branch fixture Mary Lou Jarvis and Sydney gymnasium tycoon and right-winger Peter Cavanagh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

666 comments on “Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)”

Comments Page 9 of 14
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  1. [Finns – I think Vera may be having further treatment. I hope she’s OK.]

    BH, TQ for that. yes, hope she gets well real soon. We miss her daily report on Channel 7 shenanigans 😀

  3. [The Greens claimed today the new tax package would cost the economy thousands of jobs.

    Leader Bob Brown said the reduction of the company tax rate to 29 per cent rather than the planned 28 per cent was a government backdown and he indicated the Greens would closely examine the MRRT when it came before parliament.]

    Der Bob Brown – what about your policy of a 33% company tax rate?

  4. [Mining deal ’scary for democracy’]

    A more scary thing was watching governments that were too timid to take on the miners. If anyone thinks that the brave and fair thing to do was to ignore the tax elephant in the room then they are kidding themselves.

    Now not only do the Australian people get a fairer share of the mining profits but the brave government that went after that fair share have come out looking stronger. When a future government down the track wants to take on powerful interests who aren’t paying their fair share they can look to this Labor government and be reminded that it can be done.

  5. re 404- agree and the Liberals deserve to be labelled as spineless supplicants of the corporate sector

  6. Tom Hawkins
    You should write jacket blurbs on the covers of airport novels, such is your propensity for repackaging. 😆

  7. ruawake @ 403

    We never hear Greens supporters criticise BB or party policy but I’m sure that there are times when in their heart of hearts they realise he has said something totally stupid. This would be one of those times.

  8. [TQ for that. yes, hope she gets well real soon. We miss her daily report on Channel 7 shenanigans]

    And Chs 9 and 10. Vera can break their comments down into vivid images with just a couple of quick sentences.

  10. Yeah Tom.

    Bob Brown can of course say anything he likes. He can complain that the company tax rate has not been lowered to 28% but he also needs to either amend Green policy:

    [28.return the company tax rate to 33% and broaden the company tax base by reducing tax concessions.]

    Or state that he is expressing his personal views and not those of his party.

  14. [more scary thing was watching governments that were too timid to take on the miners. ]

    the liberals just told them what they wanted to hear pay less tax with tony

  16. Ru,

    The Greens saying one thing and then doing the opposite? Given they support action on CC and voted against CC legislation, tax policy inconsistency will be a soda. I’m susrprised you’re surprised.

  17. As a Greens voter I can’t wait to see the back of Bob Brown. I’m hoping the Greens can move forward with a more honest brand of politics under the next leader.

  20. If Professor Freebairn has just realised that corporate lobbys have influence over Govts, where has he been living for the past 100 years?

  21. Don’t know what to make of this polling. The QLD seats could just be QLDers waiting with bated breath for a result on the mining tax saga, it could also be a bit of QLD’s natural conservatism coming back, now that they don’t have a “favourite son” as PM. I think the mood is starting to settle about Gillard, the tears are starting to dry up and the euphoria is starting to settle, which means hopefully polling can resume to being representative of the actual mood of the electorate (which I hope favours Labor)

    As for the Hindmarsh poll. While certainly good for Labor, I think the media always overestimate the Liberals’ chances in that seat. Demographically it suits Labor, it has a popular Labor member and the only reason the Liberals held it pre-2004 was due to the popularity of Chris Gallus.

    The seats I am more interested in (in SA) are Boothby, Kingston, Makin, Sturt and Wakefield (although with the mining tax issue settled Wakefield should be a lot less vulnerable now)

  22. So Does Tone now have to change his meme to “….the tax is a rather blunt butter knife poised over the heart of the mining industry…”

  23. 419 Gusface
    Posted Friday, July 2, 2010 at 3:20 pm | Permalink
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/02/2943334.htm?section=justin

    Hmmm
    it never ceases to amaze me when people are not the government how they have opinions when you actually govern one find out it not that easy to say what you want.

    for example the green in tas had so many pye in the sky policies now two of them are acutually in the ministry there is not a peep out of them re the pye in the sky stuff
    like free bus service or reversing the flooding of lake Peder.

    So its so easy for some on who teachers here or there or what ever but if they where actually the government one would like to see what they would or could come up with.

  24. [Don’t know what to make of this polling. The QLD seats could just be QLDers waiting with bated breath for a result on the mining tax saga, it could also be a bit of QLD’s natural conservatism coming back, now that they don’t have a “favourite son” as PM. I think the mood is starting to settle about Gillard, the tears are starting to dry up and the euphoria is starting to settle, which means hopefully polling can resume to being representative of the actual mood of the electorate (which I hope favours Labor)]

    well if i am a weather vane you would be correct there, I actually thought this morning how beautiful she is in nature and stature, how could any one vote for any one else. she is so reassuring.

    compared to the other some on said this morning she had to much make up on, well i hadn’t noticed just listened intently to her intelligent speaking very clear and precise words i felt very proud.

    It has taken me just over a week to get here

  25. ruawake@420

    If Professor Freebairn has just realised that corporate lobbys have influence over Govts, where has he been living for the past 100 years?

    It’s a long way from corporate lobbying – which is bad enough – when it involves multi-nationals sitting down with government to successfully reduce the amount of tax they are to pay. Please tell me you see something wrong with that.

  26. [Posted Friday, July 2, 2010 at 3:28 pm | Permalink
    So Does Tone now have to change his meme to “….the tax is a rather blunt butter knife poised over the heart of the mining industry…”]

    has any one heard any comment from him

  30. [nationals sitting down with government to successfully reduce the amount of tax they are to pay. Please tell me you see something wrong with that.]

    if i had of been the reporter i would jumped in and said but surely its better than the other side suggestion of less tax.

    O no you would only wish for that

    i must say the girl who was in trivoli chair this morning made it very obvious what she thought when talking to bishop did any one notice that

  32. [JAUNDICED – and the government is too weak to take them on in an election contest.]

    rubbish and the consquences of not being cautious is …….abbott

    time to get over it rosa

  36. [My Say – the consequence of being too cautious is Abbott
    ]

    if that had been the case would not the polls have told us that

  37. FMG’s media release from a few minutes ago. As gracious as one would expect ;-). Repeats the lie that mining was the mainsty [sic] of the Australian economy during the GFC. Little wonder the govt negotiated with the other 3!

    [FORTESCUE WELCOMES THE BURYING OF THE RSPT; FURTHER CONSULTATION NEEDED

    Fortescue Metals Group Limited (Fortescue) is relieved that the RSPT is now withdrawn. The RSPT would have damaged the Australian mining industry and the entire economy.

    While it was disappointing that the outcome was the result of meetings between the Government and three big multinational mining companies with no input from local Australian companies, Fortescue believes the draft Heads of Agreement provides a reasonable framework for on-going industry consultation.

    Fortescue CEO Mr Andrew Forrest said the broad thrust of the agreement generally reflects the key elements of a discussion paper Fortescue was expecting the former Rudd Government to release last week. “However, it is very disappointing that right at the time that junior and smaller Australian iron ore and coal miners have managed to develop a foothold into the industry, they are immediately slugged with this proposed new and additional tax,” Mr Forrest said.

    Mr Forrest said the narrow and complex nature of the proposed tax would serve as a disincentive for other mining project developers to enter the industry that has served as the mainstay for the Australian economy, while the rest of the world struggled with the global financial crisis.

    The key elements of the proposed tax on which Fortescue has sought further clarification include transitional arrangements, treatment of infrastructure costs and the uplift over the bond rate as opposed to real borrowing costs which hurts developing companies and not the multinational giants.

    We recommend that the Minister for Resources and Energy Martin Ferguson ensures that his scheduled visit to Western Australia next week is undertaken with an open mind to ensure the details of any finally agreed tax will allow our developing mining companies to become established so they too, not just the multinationals, enjoy a successful long term future.]
    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100702/pdf/31r4kqtmjp1p90.pdf

  39. Aristotle@428

    Fellow bludgers, this might be of interest:

    “Gillard’s grateful”

    http://ozforums.com.au/forums/index.php/topic,7009.0.html

    Nice analysis of the finely poised nature of the current position. I couldn’t agree more with you on this point in particular:

    Voters want her to lead and will follow her wherever she wants to take them as long as it is clear what she is trying to achieve and why. They will give her an opportunity to perform and will probably forgive her a few mistakes, but they will not forgive her if she takes their faith in her for granted and, like Rudd, becomes enchanted by the sophistry of the hollow men with their hollow heads giving hollow advice. “Gillard’s grateful” would then quickly become “Gillard’s garroters” and the fury unleashed against her and the Labor party would make the recent poor polling look like a golden era.

    We haven’t seen any evidence yet that the hollow ones have been banished, unfortunately; for example, her remark on refugee policy this morning, and the lack of any mention of a relaunched ETS so far.

  40. [ and the lack of any mention of a relaunched ETS so far.]

    The ETS is dead I think. Word is a completely reworked scheme focused around energy efficiency is being devised and will be announced ‘in the coming weeks’.

  41. I’ll be interested to read tomorrow’s editorials in the News Ltd papers.
    If they are giving Julia a pat on the back, this will be a major setback to Phoney/Sloppy/Mr Mogadon, because Abbott’s scare campaigns don’t have as much bite to them if the MSM isn’t on board. 😉

  42. I apologise if this has already been brought up

    I heard Morgan on ABC Sydney radio this morning. He is also the chairman of a iron-ore and gas company (I think) as well as his market research company.

    He was banging on about ho bad the mining tax was, and quoted his own poll’s figures.

    Is this a conflict of interests?

  43. Gillard will announce that immigration detention centres will no longer be run by private companies. They will return to immigration dept control. This is Labor Party policy that has not been implemented.

  45. Abbott’s scare campaigns don’t have as much bite to them if the MSM isn’t on board.

    And I can assure you right now they are focus grouping various attacks and scare campaigns to gauge which appear the make the government look the worst with the least collateral damage done to them…

  46. I looked up from work I was doing and spotted Tone on Sky. He appeared to be answering questions and had a silly looking grin on his face. My first thought was that he seemed a little shell shocked.

  47. I looked up from work I was doing and spotted Tone on Sky. He appeared to be answering questions and had a silly looking grin on his face. My first thought was that he seemed a little shell shocked.

    Or he’s baked 😆

  48. [They will not forgive her if she takes their faith in her for granted and, like Rudd, becomes enchanted by the sophistry of the hollow men with their hollow heads giving hollow advice. ]

    But what does this mean in practice? She should take no advice? Rudd’s problem was not that he took too much advice. He took NO advice.

  49. [must say the girl who was in trivoli chair this morning made it very obvious what she thought when talking to bishop did any one notice that]

    mysay – yes, I saw that too. Julie B must have been put out to be shoved to one side while they switched to the PM at her press conference. We had to leave while Swannie was speaking so I didn’t see Julie B when they went back to her.

  50. [My first thought was that he seemed a little shell shocked.]

    All the people he thought were backing him have got into bed with the Govt. He has every right to be Shell shocked, and BHP shocked and Rio Shocked. 😉

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