Roy Morgan has again rained on Julia Gillard’s poll parade, with a poll of 800 voters in four Queensland marginals showing Labor no better placed than they were said to be before Kevin Rudd’s demise. The four seats targeted are outer suburban Longman and regional Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt, and if by some coincidence the figures for each are accurate – which is unlikely, as the margin of error on each 200-sample poll is about 7 per cent – Labor stands to lose all except the latter with respective swings of 7.3 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, with no change recorded in Longman. However, it would be more instructive to combine the results and think in terms of a collective swing of a bit below 5 per cent and a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. If consistent across Queensland, this would cost Labor eight seats held actually and two held notionally. Helpfully, three of these seats were covered in Newspoll’s marginal seat survey of Tuesday before last, conducted during Kevin Rudd’s last weekend as Prime Minister, the exception being Leichhardt. This showed a 6 per cent swing from a margin of error of 4 per cent. Presumably Morgan will offer a face-to-face poll from last weekend tomorrow, the first such poll conducted on Gillard’s watch.
There is better news for Labor from The Advertiser, which has Labor leading 56-44 in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, held for Labor on a margin of 5.1 per cent. The survey involved 633 respondents and would have a margin of error of a little below 4 per cent, although this presumes a random sample which The Advertiser probably lacks the expertise to obtain.
Federal preselection news:
• The Socialist Left faction of the Victorian ALP, which dominates the local branches, has chosen ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell as its candidate for the federal preselection for Melbourne, to be vacated on the retirement of Lindsay Tanner. The faction’s secretary, Andrew Giles, had been favoured by some for the position, but agreed to stand aside in favour of Bowtell, whose endorsement is now considered a fait accompli. The preselection will be conducted locally on Sunday and finalised by the party’s public office selection committee on Tuesday.
• Queensland’s troubled Liberal National Party has picked a new candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Labor’s Graham Perrett won from sitting Liberal Gary Hardgrave in 2007, after the original nominee, Michael Palmer (20-year-old son of mining magnate Clive), withdrew citing health concerns. The winner was Malcolm Cole, former Courier-Mail journalist and staffer to former Senator Santo Santoro, who defeated local businessman Steve Smith.
• It’s been noted lately that the New South Wales Liberals are dragging their heels getting candidates in place in important electorates: Lindsay, Parramatta and Greenway. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, these will be resolved over the next fortnight. The Penrith Press reports two candidates have nominated in Lindsay: marketing manager Fiona Scott and casual teacher Margaret Grand.
State preselection news from New South Wales:
• The Nationals’ ground-breaking “open primary” preselection for Tamworth was conducted last weekend, delivering victory to local businessman Kevin Anderson. The ballot was open to anyone registered in the electorate, attracting 4293 voters. Anderson won 2110 vote (49.4 per cent) to 1100 (25.7 per cent) for James Treloar, 648 (15.2 per cent) for Russell Webb and 414 (9.7 per cent) for Mark Rodda, with the distribution of Rodda’s preferences electing Anderson. A similar effort by the Victorian ALP in the Liberal-held state seat of Kilsyth in April only attracted 170, although the only procedural difference was a requirement that participants register online. The winner on that occasion was former electorate officer Vicky Setches with 75 per cent of the vote.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal preselection for the safe Liberal NSW state seat of Baulkham Hills, to be vacated at the election by retiring Wayne Merton, has been postponed after originally being scheduled for tomorrow. The preselection is the latest front in the war between state upper house MP David Clarke and federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, former allies in the Right. At issue is the validity of the membership of 14 Clarke supporters who attempted to join at an infamous Baulkham Hills Young Liberals meeting in Hawke’s electorate office last year, which ended with Hawke calling the police. The Hawke forces are backing state Civil Contractors Federation chief executive David Elliott, who unsuccessfully challenged Clarke for his upper house preselection earlier this year. Clarke supports Damien Tudehope, solicitor and Australian Family Association spokesman Damien Tudehope. Also in the field is Hills Shire deputy mayor Mike Thomas. It appears the preselection will be postponed until the federal election is out of the way, in the likely event that it is called shortly.
• Greens state upper house MP Sylvia Hale, who earlier made what most presumed to be a retirement announcement when she said she would not seek re-election, has announced she will seek to run in the highly winnable lower house seat of Marrickville. She must first win next week’s preselection vote against Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne, the candidate from 2007.
• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours reports Peter Fraser, former chief-of-staff to John Brogden, might emerge as a starter in the endlessly confusing preselection to choose a successor to Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. The remainder of the field is summarised as “Left numbers woman Gabrielle Upton, independent restaurateur Peter Doyle, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Turnbull branch fixture Mary Lou Jarvis and Sydney gymnasium tycoon and right-winger Peter Cavanagh”.
Perhaps. But Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson certainly weren’t the key.
[The mining tax was a decision of government about collecting revenue into the future on behalf of the Australian people. The miners had no standing as parties to a contract or anything else.
Since when is the taxation regime negotiated with those affected? Not even natural persons can do that, so how can artificial entities?]All very nice in theory jv but the reality is different. Can you imagine the outcry from the msm, the coalition and the mining industry if the govt had just rammed through the tax in its original form?
The mining industry would have spent zillions all the way through to election day, Abbotts Great Big New Tax would have been repeated ad nauseum and the likes of shanahan and co would have been shrill in their criticism. Sometimes you just have to compromise.
Besides $10 billion is better than nothing which is what the mad monk is proposing.
Troy C,
“Who can predict where the swings will fall on the day”.
Everybody on this blog for a start!
[Lindsay Tanner’s last job as outgoing Finance Minister will be to expose the monumental hole in Abbott/Sloppy’s costings.]
There are only a few weeks of sittings left for the poor man. He hasn’t got time to highlight ALL the mistakes.
If Abbott didn’t have most of the media and talkback radio in his back pocket, the Liberals wouldn’t be doing quite so well in the polls.
More reaction to the NRRT deal from Malcom Maiden – fairly positive for “Julia’s brilliant backflip”
http://www.theage.com.au/business/julias-brilliant-backflip-20100702-zsoj.html
I hope Kevin Rudd isn’t eating when he sees that headline or he will probably choke.
[But the election result is still not a foregone conclusion]
If you say your prayers hard enough abbott, andrews and abetz might get to undermine your grandkids’ standard of living with wage cuts and stripping of conditions via a revived SerfChoices. On the other hand more people might be awake up to their intentions than you’d probably wish.
Yay! Our favourite PB meme of Media Conspiracy returns.
It strikes me as weird that Tanner will be involved in an election campaign when he has no future in the Gillard Government. He should have been moved to the backbench but sadly Labor doesn’t appear to have someone to replace him with.
[ On the contrary. Abbott’s approach of opposing next-to-everything is highly effective. It was the key to dispatching Rudd. ]
Who’s laughing now? Not the Opposition, that’s for sure. The odds of a Labor victory have narrowed, and Abbott has to face off against a woman.
Note to Abbott: Be careful what you wish for.
Tone just said the MRT will the key and only issue for the next election.
ltep,
Rudd would be an excellent finance Minister.
[ If Abbott didn’t have most of the media and talkback radio in his back pocket, the Liberals wouldn’t be doing quite so well in the polls.]
I agree, Evan14. But do you know anyone who’s ever been converted by talkback radio? Mostly it preaches to the choir.
What difference does it make? Is there any evidence that female leaders are better campaigners than men? Female leaders win some and lose some — just like the blokes!
[Share prices soared and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of stalled investments got the green light after Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a deal on the controversial resources tax this morning.]
BHP currently up 8 cents on yesterday.
What in the hell are they talking about?
If Abbott didn’t have most of the media and talkback radio in his back pocket, the Liberals wouldn’t be doing quite so well in the polls.]
Exactly. From the Murdoch press, through their ABC, and commercial talkback tentacles up and down the country. Without their complicity the miserable abbott and his rabble of throwbacks would be just obscure, frustrated right-wing kooks shaking their fists at the rock positioned over the top of them.
Please no more media conspiracies. I thought that all went out the window with the demise of Rudd, which revealed that the media had, after all, just been simply reporting as per usual on a government in trouble.
Troy C,
History demonstrates clearly that Abbott is hopeless when opposed to women.
Over time he has made the political careers of Gillard, Roxon and Macklin.
I agree with GG; talking about media bias on this one is a bit rich. All the media coverage of the NRRT deal I have seen is pretty positive. Obviously, a few journos have mining shares…
Rather than bag all the media all the time, Labor should be more selective, ignore the rest, and prepare for the election campaign, which won’t be won by antagonising journalists. If Abbott really wants to make the NRRT the sole issue then, apart from also asking him if he will do a deal on climate change, Labor should oblige him.
So it will be tax, tax, tax and tax for Tone and Sloppy. But they look more of a lax, lax, lax and lax in the presser.
[ What difference does it make? Is there any evidence that female leaders are better campaigners than men? Female leaders win some and lose some — just like the blokes!]
In general, you’re right. But we’re not talking about generalities here: we’re talking about Abbott. Abbott is obviously unsettled by strong, assertive women. Remember his face-off with Roxon back in ’07? Abbott’s a pugilist, and that’s not a good look when dealing with a woman.
I can’t say I’ve detected any noticeable unsettling of him in the last few days.
[ I can’t say I’ve detected any noticeable unsettling of him in the last few days.]
I’ve hardly seen much of him (Abbott) at all these last few days. Apart from some dopey stunt involving setting his speedos on fire in a bucket.
kakuru,
Was he wearing them at the time?
@The Finnigans/370, it was always about tax for Tone/Sloppy.
Labor supporters really can’t complain about MSM bias on the Gilard mining tax deal. I just have to decontaminate my keyboard after visiting a few news Limited websites but even they are complimentary, Perth Now especially so. This will clearly be worth votes in WA.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/budget-surplus-still-achievable-by-2013-economists/story-e6frg926-1225887120852
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/news/pm-gillard-praised-for-new-mining-tax-deal/story-e6frg2qu-1225887069470
That would have to be the most comlimentary story about Labor featured in Perth Now for some time.
Alas, no GG.
😀
Rudd would probably have got a better deal from the Miners than Gillard because he was using his fight with the miners to rebuild his prestige. Julia got the nod from caucus to make sure that a deal was done A.S.A.P. When that happened, the miners must have thought that Christmas had come early.
ltep
[It strikes me as weird that Tanner will be involved in an election campaign when he has no future in the Gillard Government. He should have been moved to the backbench but sadly Labor doesn’t appear to have someone to replace him with.]
It struck me as weird that John Howard was involved in the 2007 election campaign when he had no future in the parliament. He should have been moved to the backbench but sadly the Liberals didn’t appear to have someone to replace him with.
😉
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Evan14 – did you hear the early part of Liebmann today on 2UE? I heard the first hour. MacFarlane was on saying that the Libs would drop it after the election and that the mining industry is doomed, internationally we are a joke, all big miners will develop elsewhere instead of in Oz and that Labor is a joke, blah, blah, blah.
Callers were in favour of the tax and quite a few bagged Liebmann for being so negative, every day, about Labor. A couple said he had become like the bloke on the other side of the Harbour (meaning Alan Jones). Liebmann bridled at that nd said ‘never’ but the callers ‘yes, you are’.
Had to go into a shop and when I came out Liebmann was only taking calls on Paytel and his sentence. The callers in favour of the mining tax must have won the day.
[But do you know anyone who’s ever been converted by talkback radio? Mostly it preaches to the choir.]
Mostly perhaps, but not all. Imagine a radio listener who’s not in the mood for music, would prefer the spoken word to keep them company. (Radio is a “keeps me company” medium.) They tune up and down the dial till they hear a human voice – and bang! they’re subject to a barrage of anti-Labor talking-points. It would be unwise to underestimate the extent of talk radio’s influence.
[Rudd would probably have got a better deal from the Miners than Gillard]
Pull the other one. I was a big supporter of Kev – still love the guy – but there’s is no way he would have got a better deal that Julia. The miners had Kev over a barrel.
Is Morgan out yet?
TOM – selective quote.
Interesting addiction Dio has! He supposed to be having a u-beaut holiday o/s but he can’t cope with PB withdrawal symptoms. ?)
385 I tried to do a smiley face – why didn’t it turn out?
Troy C @ 344
[On the contrary. Abbott’s approach of opposing next-to-everything is highly effective. It was the key to dispatching Rudd.]
It may have escaped your notice, but Julia Gillard is now the nation’s Prime Minister, and will be Mr Abbott’s opponent in the upcoming election, not Kevin Rudd.
Tony’s ‘oppose next-to-everything’ approach to policy development has given him the keys to having Kevin Rudd removed, but in the process he has locked himself in a windowless room by himself with no way out short of ‘backflipping’ (your idol’s favourite word) on his blanket nay-saying of all Government initiates, including the MRRT.
Abbott’s descent into electoral oblivion was signed, sealed and special delivered this morning, courtesy of his fickle friends in the Big Dirt who saw the opinion poll writing on the wall after Rudd’s demise and realised that they stood to lose a lot more after the election if they didn’t compromise before the election.
The hole dug by Rudd on the RSPT has been neatly sidestepped by Julia Gillard, and your Tony has fallen, nay, dived straight into the pit, dragging the Coalition down with him.
Enjoy the show between now and August 28th.
Itep 341
I think Mr Zimmerman is a little late voicing his concerns. Should of been out there earlier and louder.
BK
There is a story about a surge in mining shares since the NRRT deal was publically announced on Perth Now. It says BHPB was up 1.6% and Rio Tinto 2.2%. Small miners are making good gains too. Only Wodside is down, presumably because of the extension of the oil & gas tax regime.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/miners-surge-on-tax-change/story-e6frg2rl-1225887049791
Incidentally I counted five stories related to the NRRT deal on their website posted in the last two hours.
[I tried to do a smiley face – why didn’t it turn out?]
BH – the colon and the dash :- weren’t in it?
Where are Abbott’s mates, there seems to be almost nobody supporting his no mining tax line.
Except of course Clive Palmer.
Where are the Liberal hard heads kicking Abbott to death over his dumb decision to go to an election with $10 billion less revenue?
[ I tried to do a smiley face – why didn’t it turn out?
BH – the colon and the dash :- weren’t in it?]
I think Tony Abbott has a similar problem.
[the colon and the dash :- weren’t in it?
I think Tony Abbott has a similar problem.]
His colon’s turned to water, and he’s done his dash?
Cuppa
That has a nice ring to it.
[Interesting addiction Dio has! He supposed to be having a u-beaut holiday o/s but he can’t cope with PB withdrawal symptoms. ?)]
BH. he misses me 👿
ssssshhh, don t tell Amigo Vera, anyway where is she?
[His colon’s turned to water, and he’s done his dash?]
Good one, Cuppa. Where do I put the :-, please.
Finns – I think Vera may be having further treatment. I hope she’s OK.
My gawd – a PB and a Finns addiction. Dio may be needing some of that mental health money Tone is spreading around!!
[ I think Mr Zimmerman is a little late voicing his concerns. Should of been out there earlier and louder.]
Agreed. Instead of giving the govt an ‘attaboy’, Mr Zimmerman and his mates have all been whistling Dixie over the past 2 months. When it came to lobbying for a lower tax rate, they were all quite happy to let the govt fight their battles for them. Now it’s a done deal, they’re all coming out of the woodwork. Reminds me a bit of Henny Penny.
At least I’m not alone in my dim view of the implications of the unprecedented negotiation rights given to the miners on government tax policy:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/02/2943334.htm?section=justin
[My opinion of the media is unfortunately shared by an extremely large segment of the population.]
Scorps@2730 last thread. Did that show up heavily or moderately during your survey?