Advantage Labor

Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.

Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).

Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.

Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.

We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).

Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.

UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,913 comments on “Advantage Labor”

  1. Tomorrow’s OO:

    # The Australian australian

    Greens full of beans over poll prospects: GREENS candidate for Melbourne, Adam Bandt, is like Jack in the beanstal… http://bit.ly/b0JHj0 10 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    I pushed for delay on ETS, says PM: JULIA Gillard is planning big policy announcements on wind and solar power as … http://bit.ly/byUZxA 10 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Jobs fear set voters against mining levy: WHEN Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan announced their mining super-profits tax,… http://bit.ly/dr9mhr 10 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Business raps Abbott for 2pc tax cut gaffe: TONY Abbott stunned business leaders yesterday by arguing “no one much… http://bit.ly/d1D4qL 10 minutes ago via twitterfeed

  2. briefly,

    [Frankly, by his ineptitude, Rudd put his political fortunes – and those of the Government in general – in the hands of Labor’s enemies. It was a gross political miscalculation from which he seemed unable to extract himself.]

    You can go on believing that, after all it’s exactly what the people who instigated the event “want” people to believe to justify it. It really is just a “look over there” distraction as justification.

    As far as Qld goes, it is just a heap of bunkum! The LNP are absolutely livid that they don’t look likely to pick up Flynn, I’ll back Brunker any day to hold Dawson and the so-called marginal poll is just a pile of shit as I outlined earlier.

    Anyway, I’m off to bed. Picking over the bones is pretty useless now anyway but it still pays to be aware of the con job that has being pulled.

  3. [The SMH: Gillard to offer deal to miners]

    Gillard ought to be careful that she doesn’t roll over on her back to entirely placate the mining industry. If what she offers is only a shell and sells out in if full, then the suspicion strengthens that her rise was bought about by them.

    I will be hoping that there is still a lot of meat on this, especially since with increased polls she has a little more bargaining power.

  4. [Frankly, by his ineptitude, Rudd put his political fortunes – and those of the Government in general – in the hands of Labor’s enemies. It was a gross political miscalculation from which he seemed unable to extract himself.]

    Actually you mean Gillard and Swan, who were the ones selling this hard to the PM. It was in fact their ineptitude. Or was its Rudd’s ineptitude for paying attention to his senior colleagues?

    Again we find it fashionable to diss the ex PM in order to justify the now.

  5. [But the future of the man she deposed, Kevin Rudd, remained in doubt last night with senior members of the Cabinet urging her not to return him to Cabinet – for his benefit and theirs.

    “It would be a destabilising force,” said a senior Labor source. “And you would think that things are pretty raw for him right now.”]

    Looks like Gillard might throw Rudd under the bus, along with the ETS and the RSPT. I get the feeling the bus is going to have plenty under it.

  6. The mining and energy industries will be “very” happy with this. It certainly fits well with the my earlier comments.

    The Greens won’t be very happy though I expect. They should have sided with the Government in December. They would already have an ETS right now! Not maybe, “never”! 😉

    [But the Prime Minister has publicly confirmed she led the push to delay an emissions trading scheme.

    Labor sources have confirmed the focus of her pitch for the environment vote will be on renewables — boosting the use of solar and wind power to help meet the government’s pledge to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

    But arguing that community consensus is “not there yet” on an ETS, Ms Gillard yesterday backed the need to put a price on carbon to encourage businesses to change their practices; she offered no timetable on delivering one.

    The newly-installed Prime Minister said yesterday she accepted “my fair share” of the responsibility for the decision to delay the introduction of an ETS, a policy backflip that coincided with a collapse in Kevin Rudd’s polling.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    Asked if it were true she had argued for the ETS to be dumped as part of the Rudd government’s powerful kitchen cabinet, Ms Gillard confirmed she had.

    “I was concerned that if you were going to do something as big to your economy as put a price on carbon, with the economic transformation that implies, with changing the way in which we live, you need a lasting and deep community consensus to do it,” she told the Nine Network.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/gillard-says-she-led-push-for-delay-on-ets/story-e6frg6n6-1225884955922?from=public_rss

  7. Gillard is clearly a denier. Bonus. Can we have Rudd back?

    [“I was concerned that if you were going to do something as big to your economy as put a price on carbon, with the economic transformation that implies, with changing the way in which we live, you need a lasting and deep community consensus to do it,” she told the Nine Network.

    “And I don’t believe we have that lasting and deep community consensus now.

    “Now, I believe we should have a price on carbon, and I will be prepared to argue for a price on carbon . . . so that we get to that lasting and deep community consensus, but we are not there yet.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/gillard-says-she-led-push-for-delay-on-ets/story-e6frg6n6-1225884955922

  8. If Gillard doesn’t offer Rudd a position it gives a clue to weakness and lack of self confidence. It will also encourage the Liberals to go deeper into the events that gave her rise.

    Hitherto she has been the steel woman, no evidence of any self doubt.

    My very first inclination when she took over from Rudd was ‘the king is dead, long live the Queen’. For we all know she is a person of great ability.

    But her flaws may be found hidden in the nature of her current rise and how she handles Rudd. I wait to see how this transpires.

  9. Julia almost sounding like Tony Abbott with this! The bubble of hope and enthusiastic support might not hold its gloss for too long at this rate.

    If this turns out to be nothing more that an opportunistic grab for power to satisfy the whims of vested interests like it seems increasingly to be, then there could be a lot of embarrassed posters here on PB and elsewhere!

    [“I am not a denier — I am not a denier, but I’m someone who believes that you have got to take the community with you when you make lasting and deep changes,” she said.]

  10. [But arguing that community consensus is “not there yet” on an ETS, Ms Gillard yesterday backed the need to put a price on carbon to encourage businesses to change their practices; she offered no timetable on delivering one.]

    Sorry, but they accused Rudd of spin and not being really committed? This is less than Howard’s effort.

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