The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent to 13 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 41 per cent. As a result there is only a slight change on the two-party vote, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. There seems to be an anomaly with the “others” rating, which has supposedly jerked up from an anomalous 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The fact that last week’s figures only add up to 97 per cent probably has something to do with this.
Elsewhere:
• New South Wales Labor is bracing itself for tomorrow’s Penrith by-election, which you can discuss here. Tune into this site from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage.
• The Senate passed legislation yesterday that will allow pre-poll votes cast within the relevant electorate to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This will account for about 4500 votes per electorate – roughly 5 per cent of the total. Nearly 20 per cent of the votes cast in 2007 were declaration votes of various kinds, slightly under half of which were pre-polls. The bill also allows changes to enrolment to be made online, and will prevent a repeat of the Christian Democratic Party’s effort from last year’s Bradfield by-election where it fielded nine candidates without having to go to the bother of obtaining the 50 supporting signatures required of independent candidates.
• Wyong councillor John McNamara has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate for Dobell. The nomination had been vacated by the withdrawal of original nominee Garry Lee, who seems to have been pushed because his establishment of a company to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme threatened to muddy the election campaign waters. VexNews published a colourful account from a local Liberal who tipped the outcome earlier in the week, which suggested the party does not fancy its chances in the seat.
• The Queensland Times has published a list of eight starters for the June 27 Liberal National Party preselection in the new seat of Wright, to be held following the disendorsement of Hajnal Ban. Not included are the previously discussed Bill O’Chee and Ted Shepherd. Former Blair MP Cameron Thompson appears to be the front-runner, the others being Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce; Richard Hackett-Jones, “a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”; Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and perennial preselection bridesmaid; David Neuendorf, a Lockyer councillor; Scott White, an aircraft engineer; and the unheralded Erin Kerr and Jonathan Krause.
• Yet more trouble for the Liberal National Party, with the Courier-Mail reporting local members are calling for Forde candidate Bert van Manen to be disendorsed because “he had not kept his promise to fund his own election”. While van Manen was reckoned safe for the time being, “sources admitted there had been problems and his position might come under scrutiny if there were any further issues”.
• The Liberal National Party has preselected Logan councillor Luke Smith to run against Craig Emerson in the safe Labor southern Brisbane seat of Rankin.
• The Illawarra Mercury reports former rugby league player David Boyle will withdraw as Labor candidate for the winnable south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after his installation by the national executive caused an uproar in local party branches.
• Following the withdrawal of original nominee Tania Murdock, the Nationals will preselect a new candidate tomorrow for the Labor-held north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond. The preselection has attracted four candidates, an interesting turnaround on the first round when Murdock was the only person interested. According to Alex Easton of The Northern Star, the nominees are “Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate; and businessman Phil Taylor and pharmacist Brian Curran from the seat’s north”. Oddly, Hunter was quoted on Wednesday saying “party members would not automatically appoint a candidate if there were no stand-out nominations”, with suggestions the one-time Anthony family stronghold should be left to the Liberals.
• The Tasmanian Liberals are hawking internal polling which it says shows Labor in trouble in as many three seats, although the only figure provided – a 37 per cent primary vote tie in Bass, which would translate to a comfortable win for Labor – doesn’t bear this out. The other two seats are Braddon and, it seems, Lyons. Barnaby Joyce has today been talking of a Queensland hit-list consisting of Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Wright (a slightly creative inclusion given it’s a notionally LNP new seat), with Forde as a roughie.
• Left faction powerbroker and state party assistant secretary Luke Foley has taken the place of Ian Macdonald in the New South Wales Legislative Council, following the latter’s resignation after an adverse review finding into travel expenses.
[There’s no evidence so far that the RSPT is shifting votes, except in WA. The RSPT was announced on 2 May. Since then Labor’s 2PV in Newspoll has gone up (49, 50, 51).]
Come to a mining marginal like Townsville and get out of whatever inner city seat you are in and come tell people that. You’ll be laughed out of town.
Labor supporters need to understand the hole they are digging themselves. It sounds like you aren’t willing to accept the government stuffed up on the miners tax. It really was a Mark Latham Tassie loggers moment.
[Yeah I can see your point. Candidate selection is a far too important matter to be entrusted to the rank and file. It should be left in the hands of the elite.]
I didn’t say that. I said that we should study the Liberal Party’s colourful selection methods. These include:
* The millionaire branch buy-up
* The Hillsong children’s crusade
* The Lebanese trans-Sydney busride
* The Hong Kong clan party
[Posted Friday, June 18, 2010 at 4:26 pm | Permalink
If this next Newspoll has Labor at 50 or above, that will be a huge slap for the miners, and will suggest to me that Labor will hang on. If it’s gone below 50 again, thing will get interesting.]
well i am just going to ignore news poll
what poll
[Come to a mining marginal like Townsville and get out of whatever inner city seat you are in and come tell people that. You’ll be laughed out of town.]
* I live in a country town a good deal smaller than Townsville.
* You have some Townsville polling evidence? I don’t think so.
Ruawake
They’re the same…
There is some breathing space in there too (pun intended). About half of our emissions are absorbed by the biosphere and Oceans. Which is good and bad. Bad for the Oceans due to acidification, but some that is abosrbed into the biosphere (trees, grasses, and especially phytoplankton) is actually sequestered for us. So as the phytoplankton build their shells, they use up CO2, they then die and the shell falls to the ocean floor. That carbon will not return any time soon. What this means is that with a better understanding we may be able to allow ourselves a small amount of fossil fuel usage, but this will be after we have stabilised the atmospheric CO2… We need to get to zero-carbon first, then reduce the level in the atmosphere to around 350ppm, THEN we can work out how much we can use to keep it around 350.
Psephos,
Rudd would feel right at home with the Liberals.
With his wife he is a millionaire, his attitude to internet censorship is only supported by the religious right such as Hillsong, and he speaks Chinese.
(Well 3 out of 4 isn’t bad).
Psephos – 46,
With all the hot air on both sides of the RSPT debate, you would think the polls would have swung hard to either the ALP or the Coalition, if this was a red hot electoral item.
That they have stayed essentially static points to this being pretty much background noise for most people.
Which isn’t to say it isn’t having an effect in some individual seats – in fact, it probably is, but the movements are cancelling each other out.
[But of course if you had any knowledge about climate change you would know that.]
I know a fair bit about it. But I am not debating climate change. I am debating the practicalities of a zero carbon economy. A cute phrase that is easy to utter but impossible to introduce.
[Psephos,
Rudd would feel right at home with the Liberals.
With his wife he is a millionaire, his attitude to internet censorship is only supported by the religious right such as Hillsong, and he speaks Chinese.]
When all else fails, ad hominem attacks will do, won’t they? Have fun down there in the gutter with Andrew Bolt.
[With his wife he is a millionaire]
there are labor people who are millionares i beleive,
there is nothing wrong with being a millionare its how you live your life thats important.
mrs rudd should not even be discussed its outrageous
ruawake – since Stern we have known that not only is it needed, but doing so is more economically sensible than business as usual.
Ahh Mesma:
I live in an outer metropolitan swinging seat TTH, and I can tell you nobody here is discussing it around the water cooler.
It really is a non-issue in the metro areas – and there are a lot more seats here than in marginal regional areas.
This was an argument that the resource sector needed to win in the first month. If it came down to a war of attrition, they were going to lose.
They haven’t won the battle yet and every day makes it less likely they will.
A few angry people in a Townsville pub is not the Australian electorate.
Rua
” A cute phrase that is easy to utter but impossible to introduce.”
We have to do it. If we don’t the Greenland Ice sheet will become destable and slide into the ocean. This will raise sea levels by 7m. The CO2 level were are at now is enough to cause that, given time. We have to do more than a zero-carbon economy, we need to actually reduce tha mount of CO2 in the air.
Psephos@59
But Millionaires are ok when they are needed to bail out St Bob 🙂
my say, I’m simply pointing out that people who live in glass houses should notice their own reflection before they throw stones.
[Deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop has demanded the PM call an election]
Be careful what you wish for, Julie. There is a world beyond Peppermint Grove, you know.
Shamaman and Crabby Annabel on Their Lateline:
Psephos
I reckon the Govt’s best chance is to bring the CPRS back as an issue – which is borne out by what you said about where Labor is losing votes. And the timing of late Sept/ Early Oct would be ideal for that. Arctic sea ice will reach a min in mid Sept, and the peak for the Hurricane season is around the same time, late August through September.
[religious right such as Hillsong, ]
i am a christian of meek persuasion and i like the filter re my grandchildren
sorry. but may be it should be opt out as i am not IT person i am not to knowledgeable on this but i like the idea of the children whom i may add are very supervised not suddenly haveing a video that is porn arrive on a child’s web site which i have seen happen with my very own eyes
[Deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop has demanded the PM call an election]
what a dam cheek who does she think she is.
Why
[my say, I’m simply pointing out that people who live in glass houses should notice their own reflection before they throw stones.]
No you’re not, you’re making the same slimy personal attacks on Therese Rein as Bolt and Ackermann do, for no other reason than she’s a successful businesswoman. Did you attack people for being successful businesspeople when you were running for Higgins? I bet that went down well in Malvern.
my say – Are you really this ignorant about the internet filter?
BH
[The comments re the BER today from Brad Orgill are good and Julia G can use them in QT next week.]
I happened to see Brad this morning on Macquarie Street and he looked particularly relaxed and in fine form, even by his standards.
[live in an outer metropolitan swinging seat TTH, and I can tell you nobody here is discussing it around the water cooler.
It really is a non-issue in the metro areas – and there are a lot more seats here than in marginal regional areas]
every one i know just says fare enough so that should
then thats the end of discussion, as long as health is ok and no workchoices thats al they care about.
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)@73
She is saying the truth – why should the internet not be subject to the same rules as other media.
I suppose you support Playboy being sold in school tuckshops ?
[my say – Are you really this ignorant about the internet filter?]
Perhaps you should try listening to the voice of the non inner-city elite on this issue rather than making patronising remarks. My Say speaks for many more people than you do on this matter.
Psephos, you are the one who bought up millionaires in criticizing the Liberals.
And why do you think I’m saying that there is anything wrong with Mrs Rudd being rich. I might be rich as well 🙂
Mrs Rudd should be “sharing the wealth around”, and be taxed at super profits rate.
Afterall, thats the Labor idealogy that if you are rich it means you haven’t paid enough tax right? Seems Mrs Rudd has been getting off lightly in that case, time to jack up her taxes and lead by example.
Gary, from the last thread.
[Scorpio that’s not Michael is it?]
Watching him tie himself in such a tight knot and then watching him try and untie himself has been one hell of an entertaining experience.
If there wasn’t so much at stake, I would be laughing my head off but unfortunately, Mike isn’t alone in his warped and twisted thinking and the worst part is, is that they seem to have talked themselves into believing it.
[We have to do more than a zero-carbon economy, we need to actually reduce tha mount of CO2 in the air.]
I am not debating the science. I am debating the economic realities.
Maybe when Senator Milne gets to be President in a military coup she can declare martial law and impose zero carbon on the populace. But it is nor going to happen any other way.
Sorry mums and dads no electricity for you today – the nasty power generator has been closed. We have plans to replace it but sorry not ready yet. Oh and when it is ready it will cost you three times as much.
Car? Forget it you have to walk to the shops, but don’t bother because they have nothing to sell, the trucks are off the road.
Cold? Well wear more clothes cus heating is off limits.
Don’t try to log onto Pres Milne’s website cos you will have no power and the intertubes shut down last thursday.
Dorks.
I note that in the Morgan poll, there is zero difference in the 2PP when allocating preferences in accordance with 2007 election and in accordance with “self-selected”.
Would seem to suggest that any drift of “small l liberals” is not particularly any more than would be expected than from the general movement in the Greens’ primary vote increase?
Psephos, once again your ignorance astounds me (oh dear, I’m getting personal).
The Rudd filter will not ban x-rated content. So if you support the filter so that kids will not be able to see such content then you are mistaken.
[Lateline
Tonight: The week in politics with … Dennis Shanahan]
The Murdochisation of their ABC continues unabated.
[Are you really this ignorant about the internet filter?]
my grandson was listening with ear phones before you say why there is a new baby in the house, the computer is in the kitchen.
‘Oma’ he said ‘the words to the song on my bestest programe are not the same today’
‘o ‘ i said grabbed the ear phones now i am not a prude but my god what i heard turned my hair green
A worthy successor to Minchin
[A THINK tank founded and chaired by the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has launched a campaign to promote an anti-Earth Hour event – urging people to turn their lights on…
The foundation’s campaign includes posters and brochures; one poster proclaims: ”Don’t be stuck in the dark with the Communists. Turn your lights on!”]
Who even *says* things like that these days…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/earth-hour/earth-hour-supporters-left-in-the-dark-20100324-qwtp.html
my say, once again I say that Rudd’s internet filter will not stop R or X rated content.
There are ways to protect children, one of which was Howard’s supplying home based filtering. The best software of this sort can create a child friendly world (though parental monitoring and supervision is still needed).
Rua
I see you don’t really want an intelligent discussion about this…
Psephos
Will the interent filter protect our portal from scams and spams???
HA HA HAAAAA
How could they make Conroy minister in charge of this?
Big waste of money this filter…
[I happened to see Brad this morning on Macquarie Street and he looked particularly relaxed and in fine form, even by his standards.]
Laocoon – it will be interesting to see what the weekend media makes of his comments today.
Kids coming for the weekend so I’m off to start dinner. Haveagoodweekend.
[The Rudd filter will not ban x-rated content. ]
Yes I know that, and I agree that if My Say thinks so, she is mistaken. My point was that the assumption that people like you always seem to make, that your left-libertarian views on censorship are shared by the majority, or even by the majority of Labor voters, is seriously mistaken. I expect more would agree with Conroy than with you. My own view, fwiw, is that the filter is probably technically impossible and will eventually have to be dropped. But I can’t see why in principle the internet should be treated differently to other forms of media in terms of censorship.
[I see you don’t really want an intelligent discussion about this…]
Yes I really would. I accept the science, I do not need it explained to me.
How do we implement a zero carbon economy, without causing public outrage?
[MWH
What better proof that for many here tackling climate change means taking political action and ignoring what really needs to be done.]
And how, exactly do you (whether as a former Green candidate or in your own personal opinion)
propose that we set about achieving what needs to be done, within the political and legislative framework that we have to work with?
I’m not talking about some pie-in-the-sky fantasy about a Green government or the Australian population suddenly waking up and becoming willing to accept immediate and significant cuts to their standard of living. I’m asking what you propose that can be achieved in the short to medium term (ie years rather than decades), whose legislative basis will pass both Houses of Parliament and whose immediate negative effects on the standard of living of the electorate will not result in the government who introduce it being swept from office at the next election in favour of an alternative who would be pretty certain to wind it back, if only for political reasons.
I’m not having a go here. I just want to know how “what needs to be done” can be achieved without political action.
Yes, it’s entirely possible that an ALP government and a Senate BoP Green Party might negotiate and pass a better ETS. I’d be more than happy for that to happen. However, it’s still going to be a question of baby steps or the government will be out on their ear if the punters see immediate steep rises in their increased utility bills, petrol costs, etc. I actually believe that energy is far too cheap in Australia (which, IMHO, is a major contributor to our huge per-capita emissions), but it’s going to take a long time to bring the average punter around to that viewpoint.
[How do we implement a zero carbon economy, without causing public outrage?]
We would certainly have to ban private cars, which are the biggest drivers (so to speak) of carbon fuel consumption. In 1970 there were 200 million cars in the world. Today there are 550 million, and by 2030 there will be 1.2 billion. Who’s up for that?
[I note that in the Morgan poll, there is zero difference in the 2PP when allocating preferences in accordance with 2007 election and in accordance with “self-selected”.]
Yes, Morgan reported he was finding the Greens preferences were flowing only @ 60% to the ALP, not 80% as in 2004 and 2007, but this is not evidenced by his figures, as you have pointed out.
Well thanks to Howard and Rudd (and other world leaders), if we are lucky we will one day get power cuts and heavy disruption to our way of life.
And if we are unlucky this will not happen and some reading this comment will live to know why I say that this is the bad option.
The transition can be done and the economists all say that the earlier we start the less the cost and the disruption.
Rudd has not really started this transition. And with him things are still on hold. Is there even one other OECD country that is doing as badly as Australia.
No. If the globe has largely swapped over to a carbon-neutral economy, then the planet will handle it on its own. Are you going to wash the air?
Ruawake
‘How do we implement a zero carbon economy, without causing public outrage?’
I don’t know if it’s as bad as you think. I think people will move to one reasonably willingly. You can see that there’s a demand for it from the electorate (given the way the Greens are going). I don’t see rioting or big protests.
It will need to happen over time, preferably before the CO2 level reaches 450. So that’s about 25 years? We need to stop generating power form coal, and use some sort of combination of nukes/solar/wind. We need to get using hybrid technology in cars, or electric vehicles. the smart car makers are already bringing these out.
To do that we need some sort of incentive to get power stations to stop using coal. We need a price on carbon.
The best discussion on this I’ve seen is at Brave New Climate.
I think most punters here would get bored.
MWH
Is it cold in Melbourne? Do you have any heating in your home?
[We need to stop generating power form coal, and use some sort of combination of nukes/solar/wind.]
So you disagree with the Greens policy on uranium. Thats good.
But we cannot build replacement power plants in 25 years. Plus current generators have contracts in place and will sue State Govts if they are forced to close.