Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent to 13 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 41 per cent. As a result there is only a slight change on the two-party vote, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. There seems to be an anomaly with the “others” rating, which has supposedly jerked up from an anomalous 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The fact that last week’s figures only add up to 97 per cent probably has something to do with this.

Elsewhere:

• New South Wales Labor is bracing itself for tomorrow’s Penrith by-election, which you can discuss here. Tune into this site from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage.

• The Senate passed legislation yesterday that will allow pre-poll votes cast within the relevant electorate to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This will account for about 4500 votes per electorate – roughly 5 per cent of the total. Nearly 20 per cent of the votes cast in 2007 were declaration votes of various kinds, slightly under half of which were pre-polls. The bill also allows changes to enrolment to be made online, and will prevent a repeat of the Christian Democratic Party’s effort from last year’s Bradfield by-election where it fielded nine candidates without having to go to the bother of obtaining the 50 supporting signatures required of independent candidates.

• Wyong councillor John McNamara has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate for Dobell. The nomination had been vacated by the withdrawal of original nominee Garry Lee, who seems to have been pushed because his establishment of a company to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme threatened to muddy the election campaign waters. VexNews published a colourful account from a local Liberal who tipped the outcome earlier in the week, which suggested the party does not fancy its chances in the seat.

• The Queensland Times has published a list of eight starters for the June 27 Liberal National Party preselection in the new seat of Wright, to be held following the disendorsement of Hajnal Ban. Not included are the previously discussed Bill O’Chee and Ted Shepherd. Former Blair MP Cameron Thompson appears to be the front-runner, the others being Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce; Richard Hackett-Jones, “a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”; Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and perennial preselection bridesmaid; David Neuendorf, a Lockyer councillor; Scott White, an aircraft engineer; and the unheralded Erin Kerr and Jonathan Krause.

• Yet more trouble for the Liberal National Party, with the Courier-Mail reporting local members are calling for Forde candidate Bert van Manen to be disendorsed because “he had not kept his promise to fund his own election”. While van Manen was reckoned safe for the time being, “sources admitted there had been problems and his position might come under scrutiny if there were any further issues”.

• The Liberal National Party has preselected Logan councillor Luke Smith to run against Craig Emerson in the safe Labor southern Brisbane seat of Rankin.

• The Illawarra Mercury reports former rugby league player David Boyle will withdraw as Labor candidate for the winnable south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after his installation by the national executive caused an uproar in local party branches.

• Following the withdrawal of original nominee Tania Murdock, the Nationals will preselect a new candidate tomorrow for the Labor-held north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond. The preselection has attracted four candidates, an interesting turnaround on the first round when Murdock was the only person interested. According to Alex Easton of The Northern Star, the nominees are “Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate; and businessman Phil Taylor and pharmacist Brian Curran from the seat’s north”. Oddly, Hunter was quoted on Wednesday saying “party members would not automatically appoint a candidate if there were no stand-out nominations”, with suggestions the one-time Anthony family stronghold should be left to the Liberals.

• The Tasmanian Liberals are hawking internal polling which it says shows Labor in trouble in as many three seats, although the only figure provided – a 37 per cent primary vote tie in Bass, which would translate to a comfortable win for Labor – doesn’t bear this out. The other two seats are Braddon and, it seems, Lyons. Barnaby Joyce has today been talking of a Queensland hit-list consisting of Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Wright (a slightly creative inclusion given it’s a notionally LNP new seat), with Forde as a roughie.

• Left faction powerbroker and state party assistant secretary Luke Foley has taken the place of Ian Macdonald in the New South Wales Legislative Council, following the latter’s resignation after an adverse review finding into travel expenses.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,944 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  2. [“a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”]

    William I hope you will immediately ban the use of the word “helm” as a verb.

    [“Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate”]

    A federal MP called Fuggle? Surely they jest.

  3. Its funny these polls they sort of reflect my views.

    If Malcolm was leader I would vote Libs.

    But because Tony is leader there is no way they are getting my vote.

    But I dont really like Rudd so when I was polled once recently I indicated that I would vote Green.

    But in reality I will vote Rudd anyway.

  6. Well the ABC has lost all pretence on impartiality – they had the 7.30 report interview with the Pm when he cut through and forced Kerry O ‘Brian off the mining tax long enough to allow the Pm to say the Parental leave scheme had been passed- a long over due piece of legislation and a good news story- but today’s Midday report had no federal politcal content at all – and certainly none on the parental leave scheme. For goodness sake it is becoming the Amercian News broadcaster with trivial stories gaining precedence.

    Am I right in thinking that John Howard’s appointee is still in charge of the ABC?

  7. As I said earlier when I thought last week’s poll was this week’s poll, this is a no-change result, which in the circs Labor should be fairly happy with. The miners are wasting their money – the RSPT is not stampeding the voters. The high Green vote consists of Labor voters saying “not happy Kevin”, which is a problem for Rudd, but a manageable one in the remaining time.

  8. ruawake 5. Well in a way I polled Greens because I hope it makes either major party panic into doing something vaguely environmental as election policy.

  9. [Its funny these polls they sort of reflect my views.

    If Malcolm was leader I would vote Libs.

    But because Tony is leader there is no way they are getting my vote.

    But I dont really like Rudd so when I was polled once recently I indicated that I would vote Green.

    But in reality I will vote Rudd anyway.]

    Oh thats crap and you know it.

    Labor voters seem to be the biggest supporters of a Turnbull leadership… and then they’ll go to the polling booths and vote Labor just as you admitted.

    The Lib leader must be someone the Libs want, not somone Labor supporters want. Abbotts our man.

  12. I think the mining tax is crowding out the national media agenda and therefore batts, school halls and ETS from days passed are forgotten.

    It allows a lot of room for Anti-Tony local campaigns such as “Tony wants to take away your…. school computers…. trae centres….. PS job….. round about etc etc”.

    Those campaigns won Western Sydney for state labor in the 2007 election. It was wall to wall billboards about “the member for vaucluse wants to cut [WTTE] 20,000 nurses or police or firies etc etc”.

  15. If this next Newspoll has Labor at 50 or above, that will be a huge slap for the miners, and will suggest to me that Labor will hang on. If it’s gone below 50 again, thing will get interesting.

  19. [If this next Newspoll has Labor at 50 or above, that will be a huge slap for the miners, and will suggest to me that Labor will hang on. If it’s gone below 50 again, thing will get interesting.]

    The Newspoll quarterly will be interesting, due at the end of this month? Are the Liberal votes in the wrong place for them???

  22. Psephos – can you link Senator Feeney’s speech from late yesterday please.

    My OH didn’t hear it – I thought it was great so will print it out for him to read. Taa muchly.

  23. Joffaboy – it’s flat-out revolting, isn’t it. Truly despicable. Big question is whether these bastards have the balls to run them during an election campaign. We’ll see.

  25. David Boyle Quits as Labor’s Gilmore Candidate.

    Hurrah – finally a win for the rank and file over the “control freak goons”.

    However, how much time, effort and resources were spent on the campaign against the goons and all unnecessarily so. When will the goons realise its about “democracy” and not all about them.

  27. ruawake – yes, good point. Certainly, if that’s right, the labor pollsters would have picked it up and he’ll be raring to go (as I am)

    The latest ad certainly suggests the miners feel they’ve got to ramp up the campaign and get more hard-hitting. Only one reason why – it hasn’t worked much so far.

  28. If this next Newspoll has Labor at 50 or above, that will be a huge slap for the miners, and will suggest to me that Labor will hang on. If it’s gone below 50 again, thing will get interesting.

    Even Psephos has bitten into the “Ghost Of Newspolls Future” muffin.

    Hook, line and sinker, Psephy.

    You’re just where Murdoch and his hacks want Labor and its apparatchiks: ekeing out a political life, junkies waiting in the cold for a few crumbs from the OO‘s in-house poll.

  30. The latest ad also suggests that the big boys don’t think they’re going to get what they want from the govt. Maybe this is the samson complex: they’re trying to pull the temple down on the govt’s ears – damn the cost.

  32. [Joffaboy – it’s flat-out revolting, isn’t it. Truly despicable. Big question is whether these bastards have the balls to run them during an election campaign. We’ll see.]

    They treat people like idiots.

    The inference that the RSPT has ALREADY affected superannuation is not just wrong, it is deplorable and a direct lie.

    Even the figures in the article show the lies of the robber barrons.

    Anyway anybody who has super knows damn well the GFC wrecked their supper returns, not the RSPT.

    We need more industry bodies to speak up about this flagrant spreading of lies by the robber barrons who just want to keep stealing OUR assets.

    Absolutely deplorable, but hey the mega rich will go to any lengths to protect their obscene wealth and protect its sources (ie theiving off every Australian citizen.

    BTW another report in the Age made reference to mining employment at its highest ever however it makes up only 1.6% of employment Australia wide.

  33. [If this next Newspoll has Labor at 50 or above, that will be a huge slap for the miners, and will suggest to me that Labor will hang on. If it’s gone below 50 again, thing will get interesting.]

    And it’ll be a slap for the government that the big miners were right?

    Correct?

    You Labor supporters have no idea whats happening out here in voter land, i’m sure of it.

  34. There was a comment I was about to post in in the previous thread that was halted mid-rant. So I will do the abbreviated version.

    People referring to a “Zero-Carbon economy””, strictly speaking, are talking nonsense. Even animals create carbon emissions every time they breath out. The trick is to get carbon emissions down to less than the earth’s absorptive capacity, so that CO2 doesn’t keep building up each year.

    Of course, we are a long way from that point. We would all have to reduce CO2 by 60% to get back to balance. Assuming the 3rd world will keep developing, we will all have to reduce per capita emissions by 80% to get to per-capita emissions that are sustainable in this sense. A 20% reduction is just a first necessary step, as Garnaut explained. We will never get close if we keep burning coal at current rates.

    I please guilty to bagging Rudd for putting off the ETS; those who understand the above maths will appreciate why. I don’t blame Rudd for the ETS being stalled in the Senate, but I do blame him for delaying it for 3 years (his words) not just till after the next Senate election. I also think he was politically unwise not saying he would go to a DD about it after 1 July. I think these two moves have cost him a lot of votes.

  35. “When will the goons realise its about “democracy” and not all about them.”

    Good luck when you call David Boyle a goon to his face.

  36. The comments re the BER today from Brad Orgill are good and Julia G can use them in QT next week.

    Have just read speeches by Combet and Dreyfus in HoR on Wednesday, 16th June, last re insulation fires.

    Interestingly, Greg Hunt said this week that there have been ’18 fires in the last 20 days and 30 in the last 32 days’. Wrong, and misrepresenting the facts as usual!

    Combet & Dreyfus report that Hunt has the same statistics they have and that the website is constantly updated. However,some of these fires go back to last October so Hunt obviously need some help with reading statistics.

    There have been 174 fire INCIDENTS linked to the insulation program up to 15th June. Fire authorities report that –

    111 have been attended by fire authorities
    6 resulted in structural damage to the dwelling
    15 resulted in structural damage to the roof
    90 resulted in NO structural damage

    25,000 claims for payment are the subject of investigation for fraud or various forms of non compliance.

    Where will see this in the media I wonder.

  37. [Anyway anybody who has super knows damn well the GFC wrecked their supper returns, not the RSPT.]

    Oops nothing worse than having your supper wrecked by a GFC.

    Meant super of course…..

  39. BH,

    Saw that yesterday in the SMH.

    Of course, the headline was “Insulation causes 30 fires in 30 days”.

    Which was true, I suppose, except the days weren’t consecutive!

    The final paragraph of the story had the real data, very poor headline

  40. Socrates, I’m sure you have heard of the group Beyond Zero. Strictly speaking this makes even less sense.

    But of course what it means is that humans do more to have the planet absorb carbon than they do to emit it. Thus totally human related emissions fall beyond zero.

    I found it amusing and sad to see how so many on this forum who claim that the CPRS is great for tackling climate change just laughed when what the science tells us is really needed came up.

    What better proof that for many here tackling climate change means taking political action and ignoring what really needs to be done.

    I’m sure that come election day the Greens will not do as well as current polling, but even so it it is good to see the Greens vote go up.

  41. People here are gravely misunderstanding what a carbon free economy is

    It means we are not adding carbon to the atmosphere and biosphere. All this rubbish about breathing is idiocy. You are part of the biosphere, you are not adding CO2 to the atmosphere by breathing.

    By using fossil fuels we are adding fossil carbon, that is carbon that has been buried for upward of 200 million years (but could be as young as about 70 or 80 million) to the atmosphere and biosphere.

    No wonder Labor’s CPRS was such garbage. Labor supporters can’t understand simple concepts like a carbon-free economy.

  42. Psephos

    Yeah I can see your point. Candidate selection is a far too important matter to be entrusted to the rank and file. It should be left in the hands of the elite.

    😆

  43. i was surprised by a comment from a friend we where talking about the 7.30 report

    and she said, Obrien showed more respect for the American president when he interviewed him than he did out own prime minister.

    I had forgotten about that interview perhaps that is so

  44. [Labor supporters can’t understand simple concepts like a carbon-free economy.]

    What is the difference between a zero carbon economy and a carbon-free economy? Or are they just a different way of saying the same thing. (beware pointy sticks).

  45. [he final paragraph of the story had the real data, very poor headline]

    Why should we expect anything else, I guess, BigBob, but every time Hunt says another fire the mob thinks the whole house has burnt down.

    Altho expecting honesty from the Oppn is a bridge too far.

  46. [And it’ll be a slap for the government that the big miners were right?

    Correct?]

    There’s no evidence so far that the RSPT is shifting votes, except in WA. The RSPT was announced on 2 May. Since then Labor’s 2PV in Newspoll has gone up (49, 50, 51). If it’s true that Labor’s vote has fallen sharply in WA, then it must be that Labor’s vote has risen even more elsewhere to produce these results. The big fall in Labor’s vote was in late April, before the RSPT. The key date was 17 April, the deferral of the CPRS. That’s why a big chunk of Labor voters have parked their votes with the Greens. If the RSPT was the cause, they’d have gone over to the Libs.

  48. returns, not the RSPT.

    [Oops nothing worse than having your supper wrecked by a GFC.

    Meant super of course…..]

    perhaps thats true may have to cut back on some meals perhaps in the long term.

    just joking but could see the funny side, hope its not the funny side

  50. ruawake,

    It is much more complicated than that. When people say carbon they actually mean carbon dioxide equivalent warming equivalent. So methane emissions and other gases are also included. And this gets even more complicated because each gas stays in the atmosphere for different amounts of time.

    But of course if you had any knowledge about climate change you would know that.

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