Following on from last weekend’s “50-50” result for Brand, The West Australian has produced another of its small-sample Westpoll surveys, conducted by Patterson Market Research. This one is statewide, and it does not bode well for the state’s already meagre Labor contingent. The poll has Labor’s primary vote at just 26 per cent, compared with the 36.8 per cent that won them four of the state’s 15 seats in 2007. The Coalition is on 52 per cent (including 5 per cent for the Nationals), against 47.1 per cent at the election. The Greens are only on 9 per cent, no different from the election and certainly not what they’re used to from polling recently. This pans out to 62-38 on two-party preferred, a swing of almost 9 per cent – enough to take out Stephen Smith in Perth, leaving just Melissa Parke in Fremantle. The poll also has just 19 per cent agreeing the RSPT will be positive to the state’s economy, against 63 per cent who say negative. Forty-three per cent say it will have a strong (quite or very) influence on their vote, 22 per cent say “no real influence” and 32 per cent say a “minor influence”.
The catch is that with a sample of just 400, the poll has a margin of error of about 5 per cent. However, it accords with the 63-37 result from WA in the most recent Nielsen poll, which would have involved a sample of about 150. If you add the two polls together, the margin of error comes down to about 4 per cent. At the lower end of that range is a swing against Labor of 4 or 5 per cent, which is what last week’s Brand poll pointed to if you distributed preferences as per the 2007 election. Even if that’s nearer the mark, it still suggests a distribution of primary votes that would leave Labor-plus-the-Greens short of a third Senate quota (and taken at face value, this poll shows Labor short of a second). With the Nationals in the hunt for the last seat, and likely to be boosted by preferences from WA First and right-wing micro-parties, this could lead to a Queensland 2004-style Senate result of three Liberal, one Nationals and two Labor. If the other states were to follow their usual three left-three right pattern, that could produce a Senate that differed from the current one in only one important respect: Steve Fielding’s Victorian seat would be taken by Labor, another fluke micro-party winner or, most probably, the Greens. Labor and the Greens would thus have 38 seats against 37 for the Coalition and one for Nick Xenophon. Instead of the Greens holding the balance of power, as most have been taking for granted, the Coalition plus Xenophon would have a blocking majority.
UPDATE: The latter sentence, of course, makes the unsafe assumption of Labor winning the election. I should also point out that the Liberals have a big hurdle to clear if they are to win three seats in Tasmania, where the result in 2010 was three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. A three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens result would require a solid 5 per cent swing to the Liberals, which would probably win them Bass and Braddon.
red card for member of bowman…should get a good view of an empty seat on TV?
Ferguson is a good operator, however his speaking style is as curious as they come.
[outside of the commentators here) even if they weren’t. Just cos you don’t like reality, doesn’t make it her problem.]
except most of the headmasters and teachers
[Ferguson is a good operator, however his speaking style is as curious as they come]
i would say its very easy to listen to him
of course he has been there doing this longer than most from the Hawke and keating times.
[Rudd was obviously afraid he’d throw up all over Fielding’s shoes.]
Rudd apparently throws up in his mouth every time he hears Fieldings name.
David Marr is doing a psychological thesis on it as we speak.
[Further, all of this crap about a leadership challenge might persuade Rudd to go a.s.a.p. after 1 July. I hope so.]
Rosa I love your posts and agree with almost all you say (particularly re the lily-livered backbenchers (if they exist) but I agree with Ari on the election timing. Going early would be seen as ‘panicking’ and is unnecessary – it should be business as usual until Oct/Nov. Carpenter went early and was smashed for it and now we suffer Barnett who is your typical Liberal thug in sheep’s clothing.
The worst part of it all, is that in the event of Abbott winning the election, reform will be dead in this country. Why would you bother?
On top of this, the only government spending will be targetted bribes to the electorate.
You can forget infrastructure investment on any large scale,except for pampered industries – why would any government go through the death of a thousand cuts, as every small problem is magnified to such a level?
Sadly, we are heading straight to the hellhole of US style politics, where money talks and the truth is whatever powerful interests choose it to be.
it sounds like the an agreement is very close ???
Hockey refers to a channel 9 report…and brings up Xstrata!! This answer could be good
[worst part of it all, is that in the event of Abbott winning the election, reform will be dead in this country. Why would you bother?]
please dont even think of this
Quest from Nine News.
Oh
My
God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
o i thought that was abbott my goodness they NOW sound alike
S/Be question not quest – sorry
Posted Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 2:59 pm | Permalink
[Quest from Nine News.
Oh
My
God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
was that question based on something he saw on the news
Had a chat to a South African expat friend yesterday who normally votes Lib. Says she really doesn’t like Rudd much but absolutely will not vote in such a way that helps Tony Abbott become PM. She reckons he’s creepy.
Funnily enough i’ve seen that reaction from quite a few women i know.
Makes me wonder why the forces of evil and darkness are running with the whole Rudd/Gillard leadership thing? If they really want to set the cat among the pigeons as far as the election result is concerned surely they would get better value from agitating fro a change of leadership in the Libs??
I think Joe is regretting asking the dumb dixer. 🙂
A Song dedicated to twiggy & Clive & Gina and all those hard done by Miners 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBKGhOlJ8rM
[Hockey refers to a channel 9 report…and brings up Xstrata!! This answer could be good]
Rudd smacking him.
Showing the outright LIES from the miners.
Quoting from ASX memo’s that contradict the lies.
Opposition very quiet.
All the lies and misinformation being totally destroyed.
Nice DD Sloppy Joe.
Hockey got what he deserves – a great big pie of facts in his face
go Kev
Surely the Libs are done on the RSPT for QT today. It must be boats, batts or BER time soon.
[was that question based on something he saw on the news]
Yes.
Incredible.
Next it will be a quote from Ray Hadley or Alan Jones.
Dont know if they will go back to terry McCrann though, even they couldn’t be that lazy and incompetent, could they?
already
BH,
[Laura Tingle in the AFR quoted in crikey today. A bit sickening to think that the media write their story, belt it up for a bit of controversy and it’s not supposed to matter to the rest of us whether it’s true or not.
Shame Laura shame. I thought you were better than that.]
Just got an e-mail from Laura Tingle in response to my e-mail to the AFR on Saturday.
It seems that she has no idea of why people have a beef with her column on Friday and it looks like there is a problem with today’s.
If someone could post the controversial bits from Friday and today here, I will make sure both she and the editor get them forwarded on asap!
[I’m a little perplexed about what I wrote in the Saturday AFR that has so offended you!
You haven’t actually told us, and since you didn’t read it yourself, it would be helpful to me to know what you had heard that I had written that would alienate 40 per cent of the newspaper’s readership and demean myself to boot… never my aim!
Regards
Laura Tingle.]
“Spectator, accurate post, just wanted people to read it again. I think many prospective Green voters will find this hard to swallow once it sinks in”
Her comments begger belief and I was astounded at her complete lack of insight. Abott is a climate change denier – does that not register. The Greens are not an alternative progressive party at all. A vote for the Greens is a wasted vote as they are a policy free zone. The Labor party is the true party of progress not the Greens.
[Makes me wonder why the forces of evil and darkness are running with the whole Rudd/Gillard leadership thing? If they really want to set the cat among the pigeons as far as the election result is concerned surely they would get better value from agitating fro a change of leadership in the Libs??]
Imacca, I’ve been a bit of a lone horse expecting Abbott to be challenged as it becomes clearer than its his approval holding back the Libs. The MSM however don’t want Turnbull back because of the ETS and Hockey is a bit of a dunce. They are stuck with Abbott but are hiding him at the moment. I think its known as hoist on your own petard. Its clear to any objective observer that Rudd’s figures are not that bad but are being spruiked as awful to deflect from Abbott’s, which for an opposition leader are very poor.
love the answer to this
hairy nose – but Gordon Brown could have gone early and didn’t and spent the next 2 years regretting it. I don’t know much about what the liberal party thinks (different species) but I’m worried (no terrified) the dimwit opposition might decide to dump tone. As Imacca says, for the moment, the Oz and the right-wing commentariat are doing a fantastic job of propping him up (thanks boys). How long can that last.
And why is going early a sign of panic?
BigBob – if Tone does (god forbid) get elected, you can be pretty much guaranteed that he’ll get run over while riding his bike one morning. They’ll never pin it on the Member for Goldman Sachs, but he’ll certainly be the one to benefit.
so what is the gov saying re the last question
Pyne gone 🙂
my say
basically, Clive Palmer is a BS artist
Clive Palmers projects that he has cancelled never existed – lol.
Phoney Worrying about 4 jobs when he wants to put thousands out of work but doesn’t care about the thousands of jobs his idiotic huge cuts will do.
How genuine.
Poodle in trouble, and now red carded.
Off you go Poodle.
That really says it all about the Libs Hairy Nose, that they are stuck with Abboott cause there just isn’t anyone else. They are like a team with one star, but no depth. Lose the star and your really stuffed.
Not, for a moment that i am claiming that Abbott is any kind of star, which make the whole situation worse for them.
Maybe, after the next election we could see the libs led by Poodle Pyne (if he keeps his seat) for a while. That would have some serious entertainment value. 🙂
Where is all the fire? Is it the aim to bore everyone?
Abbott must be getting close to moving a no-confidence motion.
“if Tone does (god forbid) get elected, you can be pretty much guaranteed that he’ll get run over while riding his bike one morning.”
Harold Holt on the Bike
Labor on 35% Primary Vote…. all I can say is Wow…. the higher you are the bigger you fall as they always say.
Rudd brings up Dutton’s BHP shares 😉
hairy – the most delicious of all ironies, isn’t it. But if you can promise me that Tone will be safe and secure (and won’t go over the handlebars of his bike and end up in an ICU ward on life support) between now and October, I will shut up and tell the Rev Kev to take his time (if he’s listening)
Dutton still copping it for the BHP shares. Still, a sensible investment, because he is ahead.
TheTruthHurts@2386
Yers, but The Coalition is steady on 38% The ALP vote went to Greens and OTHERS 🙂
Sucked in Truthy.
I wonder how many of mr kellys drill rigs were idle during the worst wet season for 100 years and whether he sacked all his workers.
Another Phony Tony Phony question.
Q. From the following list of current and recent leaders of the Liberal/Labor Party – rate each in terms of whether you think they were a good or poor
leader of their party.
John Howard GOOD 51% BAD 26%
Kevin Rudd GOOD 38% BAD 34%
Time to resurrect Howard perhaps as PM?
Julia on the attack.
Basically saying thousands of jobs at risk with Abbott.
Saying we face a recession with Abbott.
BER has stimulated the economy and kept us out of recession.
[Yers, but The Coalition is steady on 38% The ALP vote went to Greens and OTHERS ]
Silly little liar, the Coalition are on 41%.
You are really losing it mate.
Imacca, I’ve been a bit of a lone horse expecting Abbott to be challenged as it becomes clearer than its his approval holding back the Libs.]
Actually I meant to say that the Libs may believe that his low approval is holding them back – I don’t think they would get higher figures with someone else because of the swings and roundabouts effect. Abbott attracts “a certain type’ of voter whilst he repels others. Thats why so much of the protest vote is going to the Greens maybe.
[Phoney Worrying about 4 jobs when he wants to put thousands out of work but doesn’t care about the thousands of jobs his idiotic huge cuts will do.]
If SerfChoices had been in place when the GFC struck, employers would have used it as the excuse to panic and lay off tens of thousands of employees without having to give them so much as a reason.
It’s the green light to higher unemployment.
If we are crazy enough to have a “Liberal” government during the next downturn, unemployment will skyrocket, causing incalculable suffering in the community, thanks to “Liberal” commitment to unfair work laws.
What is Hockey up to?
he just got up…threw some papers at one of the advisers and now looks like he is walking out?
Afternoon tea time?
[[Abbott must be getting close to moving a no-confidence motion]
what for
TheTruthHurts@2394
But without their National party bum buddies they’re at 38%
🙂
YOU have lost it – not me 🙂
KFC half price tuesday
😉