Westpoll: 62-38 to federal Coalition in WA

Following on from last weekend’s “50-50” result for Brand, The West Australian has produced another of its small-sample Westpoll surveys, conducted by Patterson Market Research. This one is statewide, and it does not bode well for the state’s already meagre Labor contingent. The poll has Labor’s primary vote at just 26 per cent, compared with the 36.8 per cent that won them four of the state’s 15 seats in 2007. The Coalition is on 52 per cent (including 5 per cent for the Nationals), against 47.1 per cent at the election. The Greens are only on 9 per cent, no different from the election and certainly not what they’re used to from polling recently. This pans out to 62-38 on two-party preferred, a swing of almost 9 per cent – enough to take out Stephen Smith in Perth, leaving just Melissa Parke in Fremantle. The poll also has just 19 per cent agreeing the RSPT will be positive to the state’s economy, against 63 per cent who say negative. Forty-three per cent say it will have a strong (quite or very) influence on their vote, 22 per cent say “no real influence” and 32 per cent say a “minor influence”.

The catch is that with a sample of just 400, the poll has a margin of error of about 5 per cent. However, it accords with the 63-37 result from WA in the most recent Nielsen poll, which would have involved a sample of about 150. If you add the two polls together, the margin of error comes down to about 4 per cent. At the lower end of that range is a swing against Labor of 4 or 5 per cent, which is what last week’s Brand poll pointed to if you distributed preferences as per the 2007 election. Even if that’s nearer the mark, it still suggests a distribution of primary votes that would leave Labor-plus-the-Greens short of a third Senate quota (and taken at face value, this poll shows Labor short of a second). With the Nationals in the hunt for the last seat, and likely to be boosted by preferences from WA First and right-wing micro-parties, this could lead to a Queensland 2004-style Senate result of three Liberal, one Nationals and two Labor. If the other states were to follow their usual three left-three right pattern, that could produce a Senate that differed from the current one in only one important respect: Steve Fielding’s Victorian seat would be taken by Labor, another fluke micro-party winner or, most probably, the Greens. Labor and the Greens would thus have 38 seats against 37 for the Coalition and one for Nick Xenophon. Instead of the Greens holding the balance of power, as most have been taking for granted, the Coalition plus Xenophon would have a blocking majority.

UPDATE: The latter sentence, of course, makes the unsafe assumption of Labor winning the election. I should also point out that the Liberals have a big hurdle to clear if they are to win three seats in Tasmania, where the result in 2010 was three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. A three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens result would require a solid 5 per cent swing to the Liberals, which would probably win them Bass and Braddon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,467 comments on “Westpoll: 62-38 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. [If SerfChoices had been in place when the GFC struck, employers would have used it as the excuse to panic and lay off tens of thousands of employees without having to give them so much as a reason.

    It’s the green light to higher unemployment.]

    Exactly. And if they didn’t sack you, they would have used Sorstchoices to cut wages and salaries. Working more for less so the likes of Twiggy and Clive and Jerry Harvey getting fatter and making billions and billions more at the expense of workers.

  3. Truthy:

    Among Liberal/National voters Tony Abbott was rated good by 63%, compared to John Howard at 86% and Malcolm Turnbull at 37%.
    Among Labor voters Kevin Rudd was rated good by 78%, compared to Paul Keating at 58% and Kim Beazley at 40%.

    So two Labor PM’s are better than 1 Liberal PM.

  7. [But without their National party bum buddies they’re at 38%]

    Yup but whether you like it or not their bum buddies exist hence they are on 41% and their primary is on the UP and Ups! Morgan has their Primaries UP. Essential has their Primaries UP.

    Morgan has Labor Primaries DOWN. Essential has Labor Primaries DOWN.

    This is something you need to come to terms with. 🙂

  8. [hairy nose – but Gordon Brown could have gone early and didn’t ]

    Agreed Rosa, it was during his ‘honeymoon’ period and he should have gone. Our Kev is in the ‘leaving dirty socks on the floor’ period and still needs to collect them all up and put them in the wash. Then take us out to dinner.

  9. [Among Labor voters Kevin Rudd was rated good by 78%, compared to Paul Keating at 58% and Kim Beazley at 40%.

    So two Labor PM’s are better than 1 Liberal PM.]

    There aren’t too many “Labor voters” left, so thats no surprise. :-))

  12. Joffaboy,

    … And using SerfChoices to cut pay and conditions would have the exact OPPOSITE effect of economic stimulus (where people get MORE to spend) – making any downturn deeper and more painful than it would otherwise have been.

    Liberals = SerfChoices = higher unemployment + deeper, longer downturn.

  13. all this talk about kev doing all the work himself i think is a bit silly, he could not possibly check up on all these things of course his staff do things

  14. LOL, you people are already starting the monster fear campaign. Here are 2 facts for you Laborlites to think on

    A. The last competant government sits currently on the opposition benches
    B. Labor is going to the electorate saying: “We know we are grossly incompetant, but the opposition might be even more incompetant than us” … we know they were competent before, but maybe they are now more incompetant than us

    As for the “reformist” government …. lol …. the government had spend 2 years spending millions on creating reports ….. most of which was not read “ie Garrett and Henry report” ….. stuffed up the health reform by trying to steal GST revenue … then stuffed up the RSPT completely ……. here are the Labor parliamentarians (state and Federal) who thinks they stuffed up the reform … Ferguson, Crean, Bligh, Rann, Foley, Fraser.

    With the NSW ALP level of competence in handling reform and everything else for that matter ….. The Federal ALP should be taking the led from NSW …. ie do nothing, so they do not stuff it up

  15. looks like Joe might be back…will check for crumbs 😉

    the thing that struck me more was the vigour with which he threw the paper at the adviser. Not happy at the Xstrata question perhaps (not like Hockey should take any responsibility himself – heaven forbid!)

  16. [Morgan has Labor Primaries DOWN. Essential has Labor Primaries DOWN.

    This is something you need to come to terms with.]

    And Nielson.

    And if I understand this Essential right, it is confirm that the Nielson primary number wasn’t an outlier.

  18. The Libs are using the same arguments TTH does re mining shares, Labor are using comparisons to Vale. Am sure I have seen this exact comparison on PB.

  20. [… And using SerfChoices to cut pay and conditions would have the exact OPPOSITE effect of economic stimulus (where people get MORE to spend) – making any downturn deeper and more painful than it would otherwise have been.

    Liberals = SerfChoices = higher unemployment + deeper, longer downturn.]

    Yes.

    Now with the huge and idiotic slash and burn cuts outlined by the Opposition, plus the reintroduction of Worstchoices in any other name you like, will ENSURE we have a deep deep recession.

    1991, we had a manufactured recession, and we got to 12% unemployment. It was incredibly damaging and hurt our economy for a decade or more.

    Labor learnt from this bludgeoning of the economy with a blunt instrument. Even the lazy Libs under Costello made sure that there was plenty of stimulus in the economy.

    Now we have this economic illiterate in Abbott and the absolute buffoon in Hockey about to completely destroy the economy with huge cuts to spending.

    It is absolutely irresponsible that the Opposition wants to put the economy into a deep recession and at the same time cutting take home pay for ordinary Australians.

  22. [And if I understand this Essential right, it is confirm that the Nielson primary number wasn’t an outlier.]
    So 33 = 35 now does it?

  25. dovif 2414

    Why have you left your economics textbook? It is clear you have not been reading your economics textbook as you have not learnt anything.

    And what economic reforms did the Libs bring about? That’s right, they let public services run-down, ignored infrastructure, brought in surpluses which were then used to bribe mid and high income earners with welfare. Don’t mention the GST either as Keating and Hewson brought that up many moons ago. The only reforming government prior to Rudd was Hawke/Keating.

    Howard/Costello squadered the country’s wealth. How many ministers were sacked/forced to resign in Howard’s first term.

    dovid get back to Liberal HQ and pick up your economics textbook and a Australian history textbook. Your wasting your time and our time with your purile revisionism.

  27. [So 33 = 35 now does it?]

    Well i’m trying to get someone to explain that to me. Essential uses a rolling sample. William has noted before that a move from 52-48 to 51-49 actually means one 52-48 poll and one 50-50 poll.

    This poll had a primary of 35, and last week was 37. Does that mean it was one 37 and one 33 that made this 35? I hope not, but no one has told me otherwise.

  29. [So 33 = 35 now does it?]

    Margin of error.

    Gary your margin for error seems much worse, better give up on the predictions me thinks.

  31. [Ha ha. BER, told ya the Libs have run out of steam on the RSPT.]

    The Libs can walk and chew gum at the same time, Labor has screwed a lot of things up, so why focus on just one.

    I talked about the BER in here as well as the GBNT on miners, why do you expect the Libs not to do the same in parliament?

  34. [I talked about the BER in here as well as the GBNT on miners, why do you expect the Libs not to do the same in parliament?]

    So there you have it TTH and the Libs in lockstep.

    If that doesn’t make you terribly worried, nothing will.

  35. [Hope you’ve read Mr Denmore’s article – see above – about how the Oz has moved from news reporting to news creating (because, funnily enough, it’s cheaper).]

    Yes Rosa – I’ve read it and as always it’s illuminating. Kerry O’B himself said that there are not enough experienced newspeople in the ABC to do any proper research or analysis. That may be a deliberate ploy by ABC management so that they can use those feeds direct from the OO and claim they are hamstrung by funding.

    Their funding has increased with the Rudd Govt. – where has it gone. I hope it is not going to be spent paying limitednoos journalists to appear on the new channel.

  36. Julia now on to Serfchoices Mk II that Abbott and the Torys are going to foist onto the population to increase the riches of their masters like Twiggy, Clive and Jerry Harvey and cut pay of working Australians.

    No doubt Abbott is going to reintroduce this.

    Get the word out.

  37. Truthy

    There used to be a thing called QT tactics for the Opposition. They are just shooting off at the mouth, no tactics. In fact they are asking the questions the Govt wants them to ask.

  39. [So there you have it TTH and the Libs in lockstep.

    If that doesn’t make you terribly worried, nothing will.]

    Thats crap, I voted Labor last election.

    Labor have screwed up on both the BER and GBNT on miners. I don’t need anyone telling me that, I came to my own conclusions based on the information available. Unlike the Labor hacks in here, I’m a free thinking individual who makes my own decisions on whether a policy is bad or not.

    You will take note I have been complaining about the boaties well before the Libs had a policy of returning to the Pacific Solution and TPV’s… last year in fact before it was popular around parliament.

    I will continue to note Labors failings and point them out, no matter what the Lib position is.

  41. Gillard really strong on this workchoices answer

    I notice that Hockey has his jacket open,,,maybe he did go out ofr a snack!

  42. [I’ll say again Hurts, the Libs will not win with a PV of 38%.]

    Thats okay, the coalition actually have a primary of 41%.

  43. TTH

    So if you are your own man and a thinker, why don’t you point out all the faults of the Opposition? There are so many to choose from.

  45. To the extent that a (the?) major and most attentive audience for QT are the parliamentarians themselves, I would have thought that this performance would have been net positive for the government back bench. Competent (if not really a spectacular) government performance; but a weak, limp opposition, who one could imagine could have been riding high on miners, polls etc – they showed no particularly energy

  46. [Thats okay, the coalition actually have a primary of 41%.]
    Which again they won’t win with. The Nats will get their seats with their 3% but the Libs have to win theirs with 38%. Won’t happen.

  49. He can’t point them out because The Australian hasn’t printed them for him.

    Really, his whole line has been straight from there from day dot.

  50. [Thats crap, I voted Labor last election.]

    lol – I didn’t mention anything about the last election.

    You stated

    [I talked about the BER in here as well as the GBNT on miners, why do you expect the Libs not to do the same in parliament?]

    That is in total lockstep with the Opposition.

    You are just a mouthpiece of Opposition talking points

    [I’m a free thinking individual who makes my own decisions on whether a policy is bad or not.]

    lol

    [I will continue to note Labors failings and point them out, no matter what the Lib position is.]

    sure you will.

    Who do you think you are kidding?

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