Following on from last weekend’s “50-50” result for Brand, The West Australian has produced another of its small-sample Westpoll surveys, conducted by Patterson Market Research. This one is statewide, and it does not bode well for the state’s already meagre Labor contingent. The poll has Labor’s primary vote at just 26 per cent, compared with the 36.8 per cent that won them four of the state’s 15 seats in 2007. The Coalition is on 52 per cent (including 5 per cent for the Nationals), against 47.1 per cent at the election. The Greens are only on 9 per cent, no different from the election and certainly not what they’re used to from polling recently. This pans out to 62-38 on two-party preferred, a swing of almost 9 per cent – enough to take out Stephen Smith in Perth, leaving just Melissa Parke in Fremantle. The poll also has just 19 per cent agreeing the RSPT will be positive to the state’s economy, against 63 per cent who say negative. Forty-three per cent say it will have a strong (quite or very) influence on their vote, 22 per cent say “no real influence” and 32 per cent say a “minor influence”.
The catch is that with a sample of just 400, the poll has a margin of error of about 5 per cent. However, it accords with the 63-37 result from WA in the most recent Nielsen poll, which would have involved a sample of about 150. If you add the two polls together, the margin of error comes down to about 4 per cent. At the lower end of that range is a swing against Labor of 4 or 5 per cent, which is what last week’s Brand poll pointed to if you distributed preferences as per the 2007 election. Even if that’s nearer the mark, it still suggests a distribution of primary votes that would leave Labor-plus-the-Greens short of a third Senate quota (and taken at face value, this poll shows Labor short of a second). With the Nationals in the hunt for the last seat, and likely to be boosted by preferences from WA First and right-wing micro-parties, this could lead to a Queensland 2004-style Senate result of three Liberal, one Nationals and two Labor. If the other states were to follow their usual three left-three right pattern, that could produce a Senate that differed from the current one in only one important respect: Steve Fielding’s Victorian seat would be taken by Labor, another fluke micro-party winner or, most probably, the Greens. Labor and the Greens would thus have 38 seats against 37 for the Coalition and one for Nick Xenophon. Instead of the Greens holding the balance of power, as most have been taking for granted, the Coalition plus Xenophon would have a blocking majority.
UPDATE: The latter sentence, of course, makes the unsafe assumption of Labor winning the election. I should also point out that the Liberals have a big hurdle to clear if they are to win three seats in Tasmania, where the result in 2010 was three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. A three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens result would require a solid 5 per cent swing to the Liberals, which would probably win them Bass and Braddon.
If we have to sacrifice a couple of WA ALP MPs, in order to gain elsewhere to prevent the Abbott nightmare, I’m all for it. Sorry Perth Bludgers.
Law of averages suggests that I am correct on this call too. If WA is really against Rudd and Rudd leads nationally, it stands to reason Rudd’s numbers are much better in eastern and/or southern Australia.
Which adds up to a combined 54 % little to no influence compared to 43% who say the RSPT will be a major influence in the vote.
So basically the RSPT hasn’t really bitten through as the media have portrayed it, or it depended when the poll was taken – was it before or after the Twiggy & Gina Revolution ?
Personally I think, as with most Westpolls, this poll is about as trustworthy as asking around one’s friends at work. My scientific and statistical training leads me to question everything and the two questions which come to mind are: how come Westpoll’s methodology is never published (all we know is the sample size), and when was the last time Westpoll accurately (or even remotely closely) forecast a contest? They were 13% out at Election 2005 and 7% in 2008 – 13% out on these figures would be a swing to Labor, incidentally.
Don’t worry the Labor hacks in here told us that Rudd’s winning the war on the miners.
Head in sand syndrome has been deemed to be at epedemic levels in the Labor camp.
You aren’t winning.. you are losing.
[Which adds up to a combined 54 % little to no influence compared to 43% who say the RSPT will be a major influence in the vote.]
Or the other way to look at it without the Frank spin is a combined 75% said it will influence their vote.
You Labor hacks DON’T need to approve of what the voters think… you don’t need to agree with what the voters think… but for christ sakes, ACCEPT what the voters think.
[If we have to sacrifice a couple of WA ALP MPs, in order to gain elsewhere to prevent the Abbott nightmare, I’m all for it. Sorry Perth Bludgers.]
Where will you be gaining? Name names.
You blokes might be patting yourselves on the backs down at the Canberra latte shops on a job well done, but it’s marginals like the mining electorates that win or lose elections.
Truthy:
The Sample is 400 people – it’s like emailing your entire address book and asking them who will win.
About as reliable as a horse drawn tram.
Frank
[So basically the RSPT hasn’t really bitten through as the media have portrayed it]
I’m not sure why you are so sanguine about a 62-38 result. I’d suspect from that the RSPT has bitten in WA (and prob in Qld as well).
RSA 1 Mex 1
I live in Adelaide, mate. There is up to 2 seats here, fresh for Rudd’s picking (in fact, I’d assuredly say that Boothby is his – he only lost it last time due to Nicole Cornes)
There are also a few NSW and Vic seats to gain too.
Diogenes@8
Nice try at verballing.
I said based on the figures about INFLUENCING THEIR VOTE.
Geez you like being proven wRONg.
RSA and Mexico tied 1-1. I was wrong.
Although, I think this may be the first time a host match didn’t win
Was having a read of the OO online. A bit like self flagelating with barbed wire but there you go.
Its amazing the tone of most of the articles to do with the RSPT. They almost all seem to have as a premise that Rudd HAS to “negotiate” some kind of compromise with the miners.
Why? They are the elected Govt. If they want to change the tax rates, and they can get the legislation /regulations through parliament, they do it. Its good practice to consult with interest groups, but hardly mandatory.
There seem to be a lot of the MSM who just assume that the mining companies “deserve” to have the Govt pretty much follow their instructions on what is acceptable or not. There is a fundamental outlook coming through like that which i think is fundamentaly wrong.
Can see the ALP developing a really strong theme for the election campaign out of this.
I meant to say the first time a host team didn’t win the opening match. I really shouldn’t drink before posting on here…
Yep. Then they can paint him as a backflipper. The Australian is predictable.
[Truthy:
The Sample is 400 people – it’s like emailing your entire address book and asking them who will win.
, and
About as reliable as a horse drawn tram.]
While Westpoll may indeed have a questionable methodology, a 400 voter sample is not a reason for criticism. That translates to a MoE of ~5%, and the Coalition’s lead is well within that.
It’s like crawling around in the sludge today except for a remarkable piece by John Lyons that is actual news and not tittle tattle.
I don’t know why they are still insisting the lobby for the billionaires were not consulted, they put in their own submissions to Henry asking for tax reviews.
Peter Hartcher has an excellent piece in the Herald today.
I find it really nauseating that every billionaire in the country who support low wages for the plebs, long hours for the workers and serfchoices are all pissed off.
He must have it right.
Why does any government have to negotiate taxes with anyone? Do PAYE people get to negotiate? Do we get to negotiate over the GST on the power bills? The people in WA are morons.
Whats worse is that the OZ think any detractors should shut up while they run amok with their mindless bullshit.
The Oz says the result was 68-32. Which is it?
“A Westpoll to be published in Western Australia today, after Mr Rudd and the cabinet spent two days in Perth and promised $2bn would be spent on infrastructure in the resources state, shows Labor’s primary vote in the state at 26 per cent – the lowest ever – and the Coalition holding a two-party-preferred lead of 68 per cent to 32 per cent.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/message-to-pm-fix-tax-now-says-labor-veteran-keith-de-lacy/story-e6frgczf-1225878672872
I’ve got the print version of The West in front of me, and can assure you it says 62 to 38.
William Bowe@19
Which proves the OO either can’t colunt or are outright telling porkies.
Does it matter? Either way, 2/3 does not bode well for Rudd in WA. (not that it’s overall bad for WA – see previous posts of mine for an explanation)
[They were 13% out at Election 2005 and 7% in 2008 – 13% out on these figures would be a swing to Labor, incidentally.]
I know for a fact that you’re cherry-picking with 2008 – using the 54-46 of the week before rather than the 51-49 of the final week – and suspect you’re doing the same with 2005. For accurately or near accurately predicting election results, see their Morley poll a week out of the state election. Their federal polls before 2007 performed adequately, and Patterson’s Eden-Monaro polls at the last two elections have been pretty much on the mark. There’s nothing about Westpoll’s inaccuracy that can’t be explained by small samples and high margins of error.
I think William would agree that 62-38 or not, the fact this is even being published wouldn’t have been imaginable back in the days of Rudd’s honeymoon (which is now actually over but Abbott will save him).
What exactly are the Electoral Act rules against steering an election?
Shaun Carney has belled the cat on the PG without telling us what the bitch actually is.
The reality is that the election was over in 2007 and 2004 before one seat in WA was counted.
West Article on Westpoll:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/7386902/labor-facing-wipeout-in-wa/
Meanwhile in Fremantle.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/7386919/greens-seek-to-outflank-alp-in-freo/
You mention at the bottom of your post that under these numbers, the Coalition and Xenophon would have a blocking majority in the Senate.
A BLOCKING majority? Why would they need to block legislation when it’s going to be of course an Abbott Conservative government as all the polls, all the omens and my predictive powers point to?
That’s the nub of it, isn’t it. If the national figures are around 50-52 for Labor, the bigger the Coalition lead in WA the better the rest of the country is.
My bucket statistics indicate to me that, with WA showing about a 9% swing away from Labor from the last election (and with their population comprising 10% of the country) that means that it accounts for pretty much the entire national swing away from Labor from the last election (about 1%). Which means that, on current figures, an election held now would still be over before the WA votes are counted.
The danger of course is that the mood in WA affects the rest of the country. It’s interesting in that respect to see what message the reportage of WA reaction is giving us. The two major impressions I’m getting are:
1. They keep talking about seceding from the rest of the country.
2. The protest is led mainly by mining companies and rich people.
It might play well in its home state, but for the rest of us it looks a bit irrelevant. Certainly the threat of seceding (hollow as it is) can’t be winning over votes in other states. Whatever traction the RSPT reaction has had on the country as a whole, it’s already had it, and nothing coming from WA is going to make it any worse.
From the Peter Hatcher’s article:
[As recently as 1840 China was the world’s biggest economy, until the industrial revolution propelled the West far ahead. Now China has mastered the basics of the industrial revolution and the world economy is reverting to normal as China catches up, to be followed by India.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/robin-rudd-and-chicken-little-vie-for-high-ground-20100611-y3fq.html
Will the circle ever be broken? The answer is NO. The countries that benefited the most from the IR are now well and truly in decline. European countries, USA and Japan. And in light of warning from the Japanese PM:
[Japan PM Naoto Kan warns of ‘collapse’ under debt pile – Naoto Kan New premier Naoto Kan warned that Japan must change or face “collapse”. Japan is at “risk of collapse” under its huge debt mountain, the country’s new prime minister has said. Naoto Kan, in his first major speech since taking over, said Japan needed a financial restructuring to avert a Greece-style crisis. ]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10290933.stm
There is even a talk of UK might be the next. How iRONical, the same country that unleased the Opium Wars on China that led to the power and glory of the British Empire and the decline and humiliation of the Chinese Dynasty, is now wearing the other boot.
USA, ah the mighty USA, it can’t even stop an oil spill on its own door step. It had to rely on a company from the declining British Past.
I would add Indonesia to the list following China and India. if only, the Asians learn what is meant by the “Rule of Law” as opposed to the “Rule of Power”. And corruption is not a way of life.
Peter van O on Saturday Agenda trying and trying and trying to get some idea of policy out of Robb on mining tax.
No luck!
What dumb hillbillies. If ever there was a case for their secession from civilised Australia this is it.
Robb is chanelling the economic policies of Geo W Bush.
They turned out well, din’t they!
TTH would obviously prefer governance by huge corporations. He has no issue with a Faustian bargain that flushes the democratic process down the toilet. The miners don’t want negotiation, they don’t want to pay any more tax. Since when did companies deliver ultimatums to elected governments, since when did policy get made by corporations. In TTH’s world this is how it should be.
They’ve been talking about seceding since 01/01/1901. I can remember some very ‘lively’ discussions whenever the neighbours dropped in, with the old man very firmly on the rebellion side. And that was back in the 1940-50s when WA was being propped up by the eastern states. It got even more rabid as mining increased the State’s fortunes.
Jon, It’s not just HTT, it’s the majority of people in WA, if the polls can be believed. The idiots would flush our democracy down the toilet just for the sake of gratifying some unelected billionaires who couldn’t give a rat’s about them. What tools they are. I wish they would carry out their empty threat to secede and form their own protofascist banana republic.
Compare and contrast the front page of Fairfax papers to the Australian and you would think they were from different countries.
Yes, the miners are arguing that they are the experts on mining, therefore they should be the ones who decide the appropriate taxation regime for miners. Amateur politicians and theory-obsessed Tresury wonks, please don’t interfere where you’re not wanted.
The ABC radio news this morning at 7am headlined with the poll story, but then when the bulletin itself commenced, the first item was the OO story on Keith de Lacy’s instructions to Labor to get rid of Rudd.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/message-to-pm-fix-tax-now-says-labor-veteran-keith-de-lacy/story-e6frgczf-1225878672872
The reporter essentially just read out great slabs of the story direct from the OO, with little editing or paraphrasing. This is another example of the OO setting the tone. Their stories now make 1:1 copy for the ABC newsroom, to be read out on air verbatim.
Only after this was the headlined poll mentioned.
We have a bunch of over-fed billionaires determined not to pay any more tax than the pittance they are now paying publicly calling for the downfall of the elected government. The ABC and the rest of the media are parroting these highly contrived and bootstrapped stories, exactly as written.
It remains to be seen whether the shivering, cowering bogans, who panic when someone “in authority” says “Boo!”, aka “the Australian people”, continue to fall for this tactic.
It also remains to be seen whether the Eastern States will stick up for the rights of the Western Australians to hoard the mining booty all for themselves.
Shannas is reporting that Rudd has two weeks to sort out the RSPT…or else.
Then the OO will carry on about about Rudd backflippin’.
They must be hard up on stories at The OZ with only two weeks worth.
[But a lot can happen between now and election day, and I expect it will. Hasluck swung to Labor because of WorkChoices, and they’ll be hearing a lot more about that soon.]
Keating warned that Howard would be in for at least two terms if he won, also warned how bad he would be.
I don’t think you can rely on the ineptitude and dislike of your opponents for the electorate to vote you back in.
It appears that Labor is not getting the message across to the wider community of all that they have accomplished, what the libs have blocked them from doing and what labors plans for the future years are.
The Kiwisation of SBS.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/souvlaki-to-star-power-the-changing-face-of-sbs-20100611-y3lf.html
Luke Foley (the left’s deputy secretary) has been elected to replace McDonald in the NSWLC. Of all the people I have met in the Labor Party, he is the one I respect the most, which is why I suspect it has taken him so long to get a jersey. Unfortunately it is far too late even for him to reverse Labor’s terminal decline.
Fairfax having a go at News. Where else will the tentacles spread?
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/souvlaki-to-star-power-the-changing-face-of-sbs-20100611-y3lf.html
According to Poss, if a poll has a sample of less than 700 it isn’t worth looking at. More involved than some calculated MoE.
This poll is as depressingly predictable as the RSPT is remarkably stupid. Rudd has got this horribly wrong.
By the way, those here who are so contemptuous of WA, it is precisely because the interests of WA are treated with such disdain that people here are so motivated to vote against the Government. 26%. That is a shocking result, inflicted on the WA party by the PM.
You should not suppose that just because the billionaires get the media attention that people in WA identify with them. People oppose the tax in spite of the views of Rhinehart and Forrest.
[Truthy:
The Sample is 400 people – it’s like emailing your entire address book and asking them who will win.
About as reliable as a horse drawn tram.]
It’s more accurate than getting your spin on the matter Frank.
I know the policy is unpopular… I live in a mining district and the local news headline story always seems to be about Rudd’s GBNT.
Cuppa at 31:
[ What dumb hillbillies. If ever there was a case for their secession from civilised Australia this is it. ]
More likely: if ever there was a case for our secession from ‘civilised’ Australia, comments like this are it. Pull your head in.
News. Ltd thinks it runs the country, including arrogating to itself the right to run stories on whatever they want to about any police investigation they deem fair game.
Chris Mitchell and Dennis Hartigan have also been going the heavy of late:
Overland has been cleared, but how long will it be until the true rulers of the nation find something else to bash police with?
Like the Rudd government, cops should know their place.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/news-ltd-criticised-as-police-chief-cleared-20100611-y3lk.html
[Why? They are the elected Govt. If they want to change the tax rates, and they can get the legislation /regulations through parliament, they do it. Its good practice to consult with interest groups, but hardly mandatory.]
Using the same strand of logic, why should John Howard negotiate with the Unions on Workchoices… Howard was the elected government, not the unions.
Oh thats right.. because the policy was a pile of horse crap, and he got a thrashing at the polls for NOT LISTENING and NOT NEGOTIATING.
This is the way Labor have introduced their GBNT on miners:
1. Announce Policy
2. Ironclad it in the Budget 1 week later
3. Negotiate AFTER you have signed off on the policy
4. Backflip??? Oh how I await that one.
Also, I think the mining tax is a good idea, partly because it could take some of the steam out of the mining boom (booms aren’t always good – not everyone in WA works up on the mines). And it annoys me that the idea of WA secession has become owned by the far right in the same way the Eureka flag largely is. Damn CEC / One Nation types, stuffing it up for the rest of us.
Well, Bird
They’re the ones who for over a century have been making empty threats to secede. I’m saying they SHOULD do it. They keep saying they want their own country, they should go for it! and let themselves be ‘governed’ by unelected fatcats and multinational executives. Don’t just revive the threats to secede every few years; bloody do it. 😀