Following on from last weekend’s “50-50” result for Brand, The West Australian has produced another of its small-sample Westpoll surveys, conducted by Patterson Market Research. This one is statewide, and it does not bode well for the state’s already meagre Labor contingent. The poll has Labor’s primary vote at just 26 per cent, compared with the 36.8 per cent that won them four of the state’s 15 seats in 2007. The Coalition is on 52 per cent (including 5 per cent for the Nationals), against 47.1 per cent at the election. The Greens are only on 9 per cent, no different from the election and certainly not what they’re used to from polling recently. This pans out to 62-38 on two-party preferred, a swing of almost 9 per cent – enough to take out Stephen Smith in Perth, leaving just Melissa Parke in Fremantle. The poll also has just 19 per cent agreeing the RSPT will be positive to the state’s economy, against 63 per cent who say negative. Forty-three per cent say it will have a strong (quite or very) influence on their vote, 22 per cent say “no real influence” and 32 per cent say a “minor influence”.
The catch is that with a sample of just 400, the poll has a margin of error of about 5 per cent. However, it accords with the 63-37 result from WA in the most recent Nielsen poll, which would have involved a sample of about 150. If you add the two polls together, the margin of error comes down to about 4 per cent. At the lower end of that range is a swing against Labor of 4 or 5 per cent, which is what last week’s Brand poll pointed to if you distributed preferences as per the 2007 election. Even if that’s nearer the mark, it still suggests a distribution of primary votes that would leave Labor-plus-the-Greens short of a third Senate quota (and taken at face value, this poll shows Labor short of a second). With the Nationals in the hunt for the last seat, and likely to be boosted by preferences from WA First and right-wing micro-parties, this could lead to a Queensland 2004-style Senate result of three Liberal, one Nationals and two Labor. If the other states were to follow their usual three left-three right pattern, that could produce a Senate that differed from the current one in only one important respect: Steve Fielding’s Victorian seat would be taken by Labor, another fluke micro-party winner or, most probably, the Greens. Labor and the Greens would thus have 38 seats against 37 for the Coalition and one for Nick Xenophon. Instead of the Greens holding the balance of power, as most have been taking for granted, the Coalition plus Xenophon would have a blocking majority.
UPDATE: The latter sentence, of course, makes the unsafe assumption of Labor winning the election. I should also point out that the Liberals have a big hurdle to clear if they are to win three seats in Tasmania, where the result in 2010 was three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. A three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens result would require a solid 5 per cent swing to the Liberals, which would probably win them Bass and Braddon.
Mike Carlton in fine form:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/funny-they-remember-their-epithets-but-not-their-manners-20100611-y3ft.html
[TTH would obviously prefer governance by huge corporations. He has no issue with a Faustian bargain that flushes the democratic process down the toilet. The miners don’t want negotiation, they don’t want to pay any more tax. Since when did companies deliver ultimatums to elected governments, since when did policy get made by corporations. In TTH’s world this is how it should be.]
If the government was interested in negotiating, why didn’t they do that BEFORE ironcladding the numbers in the budget?
The Labor supporters appear to want to pretend the government wants to negotiate and the evil miners aren’t interested. Rudd RELEASED THIS POLICY IN THE FRACKING BUDGET!
Only in Labor land do you sign off on a policy, THEN negotiate it. Are the Rudd government completely incompetent, or is this how things work in Labor land?
Except Rudd IS negotiating, and has been from day #1.
Re delacey’s comment
NB
I NOTE HE IS NOW A SENIOR MINING CO EXECUTIVE- BIASED NAHHHHHHHHH
[Except Rudd IS negotiating, and has been from day #1.]
When was Day 1? The Day he signed off on it and iron clad it in the budget?
Do the Labor supporters seriously want us to believe that Rudd was interested in negotiating when he released it as budget policy?
Come on.
[They’re the ones who for over a century have been making empty threats to secede. I’m saying they SHOULD do it. They keep saying they want their own country, they should go for it! and let themselves be ‘governed’ by unelected fatcats and multinational executives. Don’t just revive the threats to secede every few years; bloody do it.]
I suppose when the Chinese tell them that they must hand over all of the mineral wealth for free the former Australian state of WA will call on Australia to send in the troops.
[That is a shocking result, inflicted on the WA party by the PM]
So you’re blaming one person (KR), while excusing the the majority of WAians who apparently wish to live under a virtual banana republic.
That’s lopsided fault-finding, don’t you think?
No more empty noises about seceding, they should just do it already! I can see it now. The Banana Republic of Redneck Wonderland. “In Billionaires we Trust.“
The nature of this so called debate about the mining tax is that it must be continually kept in the headlines, otherwise the government has won. Most of the MSM want to develop a sense of crisis which will lead to the inevitable backflip narrative of which they are so fond. Which is why on days when nothing much actually happens we get confected stories about the ‘debate intensifying’ or ‘confrontation increasing’.
It’s no surprise to see The OO lead the charge, but the sight of The ABC becoming a propaganda arm of the Mining Council is truly bizarre.
However, I think that the tide is turning – no doubt the ‘demonstration’ was counter productive- not that you’d realise it watching your ABC.
re the footage of the mining co’s picnic
I understand a few o/head shots were done, and showed at max 200 people
unfortunately THE MSM chose only the close slow pan to give the impression of a large crowd
the shots from o/head will be used by the cfmeu and possibly labor in upcoming ads i hear
[ I suppose when the Chinese tell them that they must hand over all of the mineral wealth for free the former Australian state of WA will call on Australia to send in the troops. ]
China’s got a population (and army) massively bigger than either WA or Australia. If they thought invading Australia for its rocks was a good idea, they’d’ve already done it. Don’t invoke ‘yellow peril’ arrows-from-the-north fearmongering, that went out of date 40 years ago.
[the shots from o/head will be used by the cfmeu and possibly labor in upcoming ads i hear]
If that’s true then I hope the ads also punch the media (including the ABC) for simply regurgitating the OO reports rather than providing independent reporting. Such a punch would take just a few seconds and could be even more pointed than a direct attack on the billionaires.
[China’s got a population (and army) massively bigger than either WA or Australia. If they thought invading Australia for its rocks was a good idea, they’d’ve already done it. Don’t invoke ‘yellow peril’ arrows-from-the-north fearmongering, that went out of date 40 years ago.]
WA would be much safer under the wing of Australia than as a banana republic. I suppose you thought the USA invaded Iraq to help install democracy rather than for the oil?
Tom
dont know about labor but the cfmeu is getting out a grassroots style campaign
i expect alot of viral marketing emails and flyers websites and twitter campaign
tv aint the “god” it was for the last few elections
Rudd’s success lay in part to the grassroots message that was able to be got out
[Don’t invoke ‘yellow peril’ arrows-from-the-north fearmongering, that went out of date 40 years ago.]
But the WA hero, Abbott, is invoking a similar sort of fearmongering right now. The Liberal ads show the arrows of entry of invading hordes of boatpeople into Australia. The majority of WAians apparently support the Liberals, do that sort of fearmongering obviously is still in date in some pockets of this magnificent country.
William your Senate analysis forgets that the LNP is highly unlikely to hold their four seats in Qld.
i am fast starting to go along with those people who would like us to ignore
tth he actully seems to take up more space than any one else here especially on weekends.
get a life mr tth go out a meet some real people
Labor should send asylum seeker to Tasmania. Its perfect. AS far as everyone else Australian is concern you might as well be sending them to New Zealand.
King island would be a good place. Its way bigger than Christmas 🙂
Truthy:
?why didn’t they do that BEFORE ironcladding the numbers in the budget?
Because they are the ELECTED GOVERNMENT, do they negotiate before raising P.A.Y.E.
No brains all mouth truthy.
[Compare and contrast the front page of Fairfax papers to the Australian and you would think they were from different countries.]
Jon@35- after a few years of buying no papers I’ve started to pick up the SMH whenever I’m out and have reordered the Saturday edition. Carlton is back and Coorey and Hartcher are trying to right balanced articles.
I make sure I check all their online sites too and ignore all Murdoch stuff except Mega’s blog.
The least we can do is support the mob who are at least making an attempt at fairness (apart from La Grattan who needs a shove).
i read an article recently about the the years that we have with the minerals in the ground taken out at the rate they are now,.
i dont want to put a figure here that i read but has any one else got any reliable
answers i know no matter what was said then some other expert would come up with another answer so may be a pointless exercise but i think most people think they are there for ever,
Mr. Denmore may know
The weekend AFR is the only paper I buy.
[you would think they were from different countries.
Jon@35- after a few years of buying no papers I’ve started to pick up the SMH whenever I’m out and have reordered the Saturday edition. Carlton is back and Coorey and Hartcher are trying to right balanced articles.
I make sure I check all their online sites too and ignore]
so is CARLTON back he is usually very good, i agree
[The least we can do is support the mob who are at least making an attempt at fairness (apart from La Grattan who needs a shove).]
IMO Fairfax has been exemplary in its coverage of the super-profits tax debate.Way way better than the coverage by News Ltd and their ABC (same thing really).
They also did far more serious scrutiny of Abbott’s non-core parental leave “policy” than the others.
The Westpoll results shouldn’t be dismissed, but neither should they be accorded undue weight this far out from the election, given the blanket negative WA media coverage of the Federal Government’s RSPT proposals and the mining magnate’s blatant efforts to manipulate fear amongst the WA populace who are heavily in thrall to their economic interests.
Sky News is filled with non story of Keith de Lacey’s comments about ditching Rudd, although they do mention that de Lacy is a coal mining executive. They also continue to claim the Westpoll TPP figures as 68% to 32% instead of the correct 62% to 38% – is this a deliberate attempt to falsify these results when they must know by now that they have the figures transposed?
No mention, of course, of the 52% to 48% to Labor in the Morgan Poll – typical of Sky News to cherry pick only those polling results that support their predetermined anti Rudd narrative, then to fail to correct a blatant distortion of polling results that also serves to reinforce their preferred Coalition-friendly spin.
Despite the falsehoods and negative spin propagated across the MSM, the actual situation is still favourable for the Rudd Government’s re-election later in the year (I still suspect October, rather than August) with a slightly reduced majority. Don’t forget the recent doom and gloom polling for the ALP in the SA and Tasmanian State elections that resulted in their retention of government.
Maintain the rage and the enthusiam, comrades!
BB@46
[Meanwhile, law enforcement sources said they were concerned about comments News Ltd’s chairman, John Hartigan, made to senior NSW police officers in March.
Several sources at the meeting said Mr Hartigan told officers they could choose to work with News Ltd or not, like Mr Overland.
The sources interpreted this as a warning to police to co-operate with the group’s newspapers, or they would receive negative coverage. ”It really means the police [should] play ball or else we will carve you up … we will get stuck into you as we have been with Overland,” one senior officer said.]
That serious stuff – how do they get away with it. I bet the radio shockjocks will be on to that one first thing Monday morning!!
I think it’s time that the government started comparing the supposed risks that the mining companies take compared with small business owners (who will get a tax concession). Most small business owners have to put their house on the line – something mining companies never have to do (couldn’t do).
I think that if Rudd points that out he’ll win a lot of fans among small business.
htt
Dr Leslie Cannold is a feminist, ethicist and forthcoming novelist. She will be launching the National Union of Students Campaign ‘Abbott’s Heaven, Your Hell’ on Wednesday 23 June at the Queen Victoria Women’s Centre in Melbourne.
p://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2923682.htm
Is asking Keith De Lacy what he thinks of Kevin Rudd akin to asking a turkey what it thinks of Christmas, or what Malcolm Fraser thinks of Tony Abbott?
There still doesn’t seem to be any govt or union adds to counteract the Miners’ lies about them saving us from the GFC when in fact they sacked 15% of their workers.
The great unwashed out there are being brainwashed that the billionaires saved us from recession not Kev, Swanny Henry and Stevens.
This is why the polls now show the Libs back in front as better economical managers I think.
Gusface I hope you are right and the forces of good hit back soon!
Could be they have an August election date set and are saving their ammo for a “shock and awe” 6 week election campaign 😉
Let’s hope so.
[Is asking Keith De Lacy ]
what his story we had a simialr thing from Harry quick who actully left the party,
dont think any one took to much notice, harry has always been very neg.,
and the funny thing was he thought latham was great.
It is not “iron clad” in the Budget. The measure is revenue neutral. Every dollar collected is allocated. If the RSPT fails to pass, so do the super changes, the reduction in company tax and the infrastructure spending measures that are part of it.
You keep repeating this “in the Budget” line, but that doesn’t make it so.
Vera we amy be ask to donate i suppose every dollar helps but i think i would like some stickers for my car. lets all write to the cfmeu awu and ask when they will be available.
AC
Or even asking a turkey what he thinks of Abbott 😀
[Because they are the ELECTED GOVERNMENT, do they negotiate before raising P.A.Y.E.]
The Howard Government was the elected government, so why did the Unions make such a song and dance about Workchoices? Why didn’t you just shut up and keep your opinions to yourselves?
Labor maybe ELECTED but that doesn’t make them ELECTABLE. They will pay in the mining marginals, of that I am assured.
mysay
Gusface said this
If he’s right we may get some action soon.
vera, I’ve pointed out before that these ads are a flagrant breach of s52 of the Trade Practices Act because they are misleading and deceptive conduct. But if the miners got prosecuted/sued, they would say the act doesn’t apply because they are not acting in trade and commerce – rather, they are political adviertising. But, of course, you can bet they will claim a tax deduction. Totally shameful. Something has to be done.
[It is not “iron clad” in the Budget. The measure is revenue neutral. Every dollar collected is allocated. If the RSPT fails to pass, so do the super changes, the reduction in company tax and the infrastructure spending measures that are part of it.]
Ohhh so I get it now… Wayne Swan didn’t actually release a budget at all… it was just a figment of my imagination and this was just a “taster” budget to test the waters.
When do we get to see the real?
vera, I’m also doubtful about whether the mining companies will be able to keep running these ads deep into an election campaign. If they do, they run the risk of really starting to piss off the electorate and turning this into a debate over who actually runs this country. I hope I haven’t misjudged my fellow citizens.
Imagine you are midflight on an aeroplane and the Captain comes onto the loud speaker to announce, “You have nothing to worry about”. What would you think?
Tony, Captain Turnbull today says, “You have nothing to worry about”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/11/2924815.htm
Truthy: I must WARN you, do not stake you life on Abbott winning the next or ANY election.
Workchoices was NOT a TAX, it was an impost on peoples working conditions, what is your point?.
O for a IGNORE BUTTON!.
rosa, I hope this “don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” strategy of Kev’s works!
He probably has it all worked out and knows exactly what he’s doing, but it ain’t good for the nervous nellies among us!
Except he says no such thing in the article you quote.
[Workchoices was NOT a TAX, it was an impost on peoples working conditions, what is your point?.]
So in your view, people should only be able to negotiate with the government on things of your choosing.
At the end of the day the punters will decide what will and won’t be on the agenda. We can see clearly from the polling that the punters have put this GBNT on miners into the agenda spotlight because whether or not you like it, Rudd has made this an issue.
We all know why Rudd needs this GBNT. It’s because he’s in a great big debt hole. You know, if this government was posting surpluses, they would have had a better case for this tax because it would have looked more like tax reform, rather than a tax grab by a desperate government thats addicted to binge spending like drunken sailors.
GG
malcolm stalks ever closer?
‘softly softly catchy mousey”
No, he is saying, if my fellow MP’s ask me to take the lead, I will!.
Unlikely is a very loose word.
Pebbles, I think you’re right about sacrificing MPs in WA if necessary. I like Stephen Smith. I think he’s a good bloke and a good politician. But at the end of the day, what’s a foreign minister here or there? Totally expendable I’m afraid.
To quote that great campaign manager, Sun Tzu, make noise in the west and attack in the east. or was it the other way around? I hope not.
vera – don’t under-estimate the damage that the miners are doing to themselves. That spectacle in Perth on wednesday was about as crass as a midget-throwing competition. Total own goal.
Frank
[Nice try at verballing.
I said based on the figures about INFLUENCING THEIR VOTE.
Geez you like being proven wRONg.]
Anyone with a brain in their head would read 62-38 and realise that the RSPT has bitten in WA.
You really are a hopeless sycophant.
Dio
You bought your shovel straight up!!
Or are you still digging out of your last hole?
and Dio dearest
its Syncophant
Got a mirror handy?