The Sunday Mail has published a survey of 574 voters in the eastern Adelaide seat of Morialta which shows Liberal candidate John Gardner with a 52-48 lead over Labor incumbent Lindsay Simmons, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of nearly 10 per cent. This supports the general view that Labor faces a particular problem in this seat – more so than in other seats with smaller margins – and replicates the result of a Labor internal poll I’ve heard rumours of. The primary vote figures are 43 per cent for the Liberals (35.2 per cent at the 2006 election), 35 per cent for Labor (47.7 per cent), 4 per cent for the Greens (6.3 per cent) and 3 per cent each for the Democrats (3.0 per cent) and Family First (5.7 per cent).
Highlights of week one:
• Mike Smithson writes in today’s Sunday Mail that Liberal tracking polling of six marginal seats had them 48-52 behind in October, 51-49 ahead a month ago and 53-47 ahead 11 days ago. Leaving aside the trend, the meaning of these figures depends entirely on what the six seats are, which we are not told. If it’s the six most marginal Labor seats, it points to a swing of about 7.5 per cent on the latest figure: enough to cost Labor seven seats, which would reduce them to 21 seats out of 48. “The rumour on the street”, says Smithson, is that Labor polling tells a similar story. Curiously, Smithson’s line in last week’s column was that Mawson, Hartley and Newland would be “retained by Labor and that’s that”. Norwood, Light and Chaffey were rated “strong possibilities” for the Liberals, along with independent-held Frome and Mount Gambier, but Morialta was “still a better than an even chance” for Labor. Smithson also believed Labor were an outside chance in Liberal-held Stuart and Unley and independent-held Mitchell.
• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser wrote a week ago that Liberal polling gave them “a very strong chance of winning Newland, Mawson, Light and Morialta”. Labor is reportedly “banking” on picking up Mitchell from independent Kris Hanna, which could be a perverse consequence of a Liberal resurgence relegating Hanna to third place and denying him a win on Liberal preferences. UPDATE (1/3): Today Kelton reports Labor is pessimistic about Morialta, Newland and Light, but more bullish about Hartley and Bright.
• The formal announcement of the campaign came days after Mike Rann announced a plan to resolve Adelaide’s signature infrastructure headache by duplicating the Southern Expressway. This presently runs one way towards the city in the morning before changing direction for the afternoon. Rann trumped the opposition in making the surprise announcement last Wednesday, which had planned to make a similar promise later in the day. Greg Kelton of The Advertiser reports Isobel Redmond had somehow “fluffed an opportunity to get in first” during a radio interview in the morning, “despite prompting from her staff”. Labor’s $445 million costing for the project ($370 million for the duplication, with the remainder to be spent on the Darlington interchange) compelled the Liberals to recalculate their own sums, which reportedly had it at $270 million. Shadow Finance Minister Rob Lucas was sent out to “take one for the party” (in the words of a Liberal source quoted by Greg Kelton) by announcing that while Labor’s Labor’s promise would be matched, further details would not be forthcoming until later in the campaign. Isobel Redmond was apparently unable to do so because of “other engagements”, while Shadow Treasurer Steven Griffiths was “believed to be in Maitland”. The confusion in the Liberal camp let Labor off the hook over a statement made by Transport Minister Patrick Conlon seven months ago that the cost of the project – then put at $280 million – was more than the government could afford. The most sensitive marginal seats serviced by the expressway are Mawson and Bright, along with Mitchell which Labor hopes to recover from independent Kris Hanna. Transport Minister Pat Conlon has further sought to concentrate the electorate advantage by promising quotas on the employment of workers on the project, which will require that 750 out of 1500 come from the southern suburbs, and another 200 be workers who are young or from “other disadvantaged groups”. However, he concedes this unwieldy sounding policy does not come with an “iron-clad guarantee”.
• Staying in the general area, the Prime Minister joined Mike Rann yesterday in promising an $18 million overpass to improve safety at the intersection of Victor Harbor Road and Main Road in McLaren Vale, located in the marginal seat of Mawson.
• Renato Castello of the Sunday Mail reports the government hurried through a rezoning at Gawler Racecourse shortly before it went into caretaker mode, allowing for development of a 4.3 hectare shopping centre and office development. It is unclear how clever an idea this is vis-a-vis the knife-edge marginal of Light, as the development is opposed by a local council that believes it will divert trade from downtown Gawler.
• Mike Rann went to Port Augusta on Thursday to promote $18.2 million of local spending on the mining industry and a promised $5 million sporting complex, presumably in a bid to keep the heat on the Liberals in Stuart.
• During an ABC Radio debate with Hartley Labor MP Grace Portolesi, Liberal candidate Joe Scalzi gamely voiced support for anti-abortion corflutes which have appeared around Adelaide courtesy of independent upper house candidate Trevor Grace. The posters, which feature a premature baby’s disfigured head, are the subject of an investigation by the Advertising Standards Bureau.
• Vickie Chapman has complained to the Electoral Commission about a newsletter in which Labor MP Vini Ciccarello claims credit for two projects in Kensington. The projects are actually located in Chapman’s seat of Bragg, but are to be transferred to Ciccarello’s seat of Norwood as a result of the redistribution.
• Port Adelaide mayor and Liberal Party member Gary Johanson says he is considering running as an independent against Deputy Premier and Treasurer Kevin Foley in Port Adelaide. Coalition for the Protection of Racehorses SA campaign co-ordinator Colin Thomas, who polled 8.8 per cent as Greens candidate in federal Port Adelaide in 2007, will run as an independent against Racing Minister Michael Wright in Lee.
• Former Democrats MLC Sandra Kanck has re-emerged as an election candidate, albeit in the radically unwinnable third position on the party’s upper house ticket. The lead candidate is Jeanie Walker, followed by Tom Salerno.
• After long-running and uninteresting stand-off between the two parties, which at one point had broadcaster Channel Ten threatening to withdraw, the leaders debate has been set for Wednesday.
bob
True about negative campaigning – they should stick to jobs growth, plus the tram extension (done and successful), road works, defence base and having paid off the (State Bank) debt.
[they should stick to jobs growth]
I really don’t think anyone is going to pay attention to it. Howard banged on about jobs growth in 2007 and nobody listened. During Rann’s term, unemployment has generally stayed the same. There has been no high unemployment. Banging on about jobs growth is an irrelevance and will simply switch people off – not good.
People who belieive “negative campaigns” don’t work in elections are ignoring the reality that all Parties use them and they are the most effective way of making a point.
I realise that many say they don’t like them but they’re kidding themselves. The reality is that while they may not like the way a message is delivered, people still listen to and digest the message being communicated.
Socrates
[I know your views on the hospital but I don’t perceive they are shared in the general community. ]
I’m an agnostic on the new hospital. If you are referring to SaveRAH, the only randomised poll showed that the voters don’t want a new RAH.
Personally, I don’t believe the figures either side is giving us. I know someone very high up in one of the bids who has said the same as you about rebuild vs relocate. The Labor figure doesn’t include decommissioning the old RAH which should be included in the cost.
Mike Rann is splashing money around worse than Howie did at the last election and promising the Earth. And I agree that campaigning about having stopped the nuclear waste dump in SA is ridiculous, esp as we mine the stuff.
GG
Completely agree. Negative campaigning and attack ads work a treat. Remember those brilliant anti SerfChoices ads? They sunk Howie more than anything.
I saw the Libs do an excellent attack ad against Rann which really hit home. Then they did a Redmond is wonderful ad which was a complete joke and made you realise that Rann may be all spin, tired and cliched but at least he’s not Redmond.
[People who belieive “negative campaigns” don’t work in elections are ignoring the reality that all Parties use them and they are the most effective way of making a point.]
If a government are perceived as more arrogant than usual (which is yes in this case) then negative campaigning only increases this perception.
[The reality is that while they may not like the way a message is delivered, people still listen to and digest the message being communicated.]
Who are you kidding?
[People who belieive “negative campaigns” don’t work in elections are ignoring the reality that all Parties use them and they are the most effective way of making a point.]
True. If negative campaigns didn’t work parties would’ve stopped using them decades ago.
It’s true that negative campaigns can backfire if they’re poorly conceived though. For instance, the Canadian Progressive Conservative’s negative campaign against Liberal leader Jean Chrétien. It stated “I would be very embarrassed if he became Prime Minister of Canada” and interspersed images of his face and its facial deformity. Some people think this played some role in he PC’s woeful performance at that election.
[ True about negative campaigning – they should stick to jobs growth, plus the tram extension (done and successful), road works, defence base and having paid off the (State Bank) debt.
]
Oh…you forgot to add the other positive factor that should be stressed by Labor –
all the great work done by Labor’s “outstanding Attorney General”.
😆
Here is my thought bubble for the day. I wonder if now that most states have fixed 4 year terms if this will lead to bigger swings at elections? My reasoning is simple, people may now start to feel that if they don’t take an opportunity to vote against a government it will be 4 rather than 2.5 or 3 years before they have another chance?
Consider the last NSW election where Iemma was elected comfortably, but just a year later the government was completely on the nose. If Rann wins on March 20, that means Labor will be a 12 year government, which is longer than Howard managed.
Rann is finally making some good points about the RAH – notably that the hospital has been pretty much a permanent building site for the past 15 years … half of which when the Liberal Party was in power.
Seriously, if you can’t refurbish a hospital to a decent standard in 15 years, doesn’t that indicate that there is a wider problem, particuarly since both sides of politics have had their fingerprints all over it?
Compare and contrast the Lyell McEwin Hospital which is, well, just amazing now. My daughter was born there 9 years ago and I haven’t had cause to visit it again until just recently when I had an emergency department visit. I could not believe the transformation; 9 years ago it was a 1950’s dump; now it is stunning. Still some more work to be done I can see, but I was just looking around me going “wow”.
And I know the local member was Health Minister for a time, but the Lyell McEwin Hospital just proves what can be done if a) you have both the will and the means to do it and b) you have a good canvas to begin with. I think the problem with the RAH is that a) has been okay, but it has been b) which has caused all the problems.
As the saying goes, you can’t make silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
chinda
The Lyell Mac has a really good ED. It’s the rest of the hospital which provides such a limited service that they have to transfer so many cases to private, the RAH and QEH.
Is Rann doing a Rudd? And to suggest Labor hasn’t been spinning enough on the RAH is hilarious.
[PREMIER Mike Rann has conceded his Government has not “sold” its case for a new royal Adelaide Hospital well enough. ]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/rann-admits-failure-in-selling-rah-mesaage/story-e6frea6u-1225835510238
[And to suggest Labor hasn’t been spinning enough on the RAH is hilarious.]
Kind of like all those Liberal MPs who thought (and still think) that the only problem with WorkChoices is that it wasn’t ‘sold’ correctly. You can’t argue with people who think they are always right.
Diogs,
What’s to spin about a new hospital.
On the one hand you get rid of a dilapidated, out dated relic of the past. On the other, you get a new, state of the art building that can cater for modern medical practices to ensure a better quality of care is provided.
Where would you prefer to take your children if they were sick?
[What’s to spin about a new hospital.
On the one hand you get rid of a dilapidated, out dated relic of the past. On the other, you get a new, state of the art building that can cater for modern medical practices to ensure a better quality of care is provided.]
Like Labor, you fail to mention the new hospital will have quite a few less beds…? Nice spin 🙂
[Where would you prefer to take your children if they were sick?]
Somebody PLEASE think of the children!!
😀
Mackerras predicts a Labor majority government… just. And he boldly makes an upper house prediction.
http://www.independentweekly.com.au/news/local/news/general/liberal-wins-but-no-election-victory/1763659.aspx
[The Liberal Party will make significant gains on March 20, says Australia’s foremost election analyst, psephologist Malcolm Mackerras.
Speaking exclusively to The Independent Weekly, Mr Mackerras predicts that Labor will win 24 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly, and the Liberals 22.
This will be a very narrow majority for the ALP.
“One Independent will be elected, Dr Bob Such in the seat of Fisher,” Mr Mackerras said.
“At present there are 14 Liberals. Consequently I am predicting that they make eight gains. The eight seats I have in mind are Chaffey from the Nationals, two from Independents, Frome and Mount Gambier, and five from Labor.
“I predict Labor’s losses to the Liberal Party to be Hartley, Light, Mawson, Morialta and Norwood.
“At present Labor has 28 seats. If Labor loses those five seats to the Liberals, but if Labor gains Mitchell from the Independent Kris Hanna, then Labor would have 24 seats – and that is what I predict.”
In the Legislative Council, Mr Mackerras expects that the result will be the same as in 2002, except that the seat won by the Democrats in 2002 will this year be won by the Greens.]
Why would anyone be dumb enough to put their reputation, such as it is, one the line with such a specific prediction three weeks before the election?
Is he saying that nothing will happen in the last three weeks of the campaign to change anyone’s mind?
To add to my post, if Mackerras is predicting a repeat of 2002 except swap Dem for Green, that’s 5 Lib, 4 ALP, 1 Green, 1 FFP – a total of 8 Lib, 8 ALP, 2 Green, 2 FFP, 2 No Pokies.
Also, there will be a massive swing to the Libs in the upper house. They suffered a 14% swing in 2006, due to the double effect of voters going to Xenophon as well as Labor. Now that Xen is gone and Labor is somewhat on the nose, expect the flood to go in the opposite direction, to some extent at least.
(The Libs got only 26%, while Xen got 20.5%…)
Didn’t Malcolm Mackerras predict the Libs would lose Higgins?
[Didn’t Malcolm Mackerras predict the Libs would lose Higgins?]
Yes. Nobody is ever always right, but Mackerras is pretty good, and very experienced.
I wanna know what Graham Richardson would predict… he’s predicted every federal election correctly for the past 30 years 🙂
I received this reply from the SAEC regarding the AbortSA posters:
[Your email regarding the election advertising of Trevor Grace has been received.
I understand that the graphic content of the signs has angered and upset many people in the community and I have received a number of complaints about them.
Whilst I understand your concerns, I advise that under the Electoral Act 1985 I am not able to take any action. I only have authority to administer and enforce the provisions of the Electoral Act.
The Electoral Act regulates the size of electoral advertisements and requires that they be authorised by someone taking responsibility for them by including a name and contact address. The Act does provide that if an advertisement ‘contains a statement purporting to be a statement of fact that is inaccurate and misleading to a material extent’ an offence has occurred.
The placement of election signs is a matter regulated by local councils under the Local Government Act 1999. Councils generally have a policy regarding the placing of election signs within the council area but these policies typically refer to the height and location the sign can be displayed.
As mentioned above, all electoral advertising must be authorised. I suggest you refer your concerns to the person responsible for the display of the material.
Yours sincerely
K Mousley]
Yeah MacKerras is pretty good, he gets it right about 50% of the time 🙂
SO
That’s pretty amazing. I’m surprised they have no jurisdiction over whether ads are offensive or not. That must be the reason it has ended up with the Advertising Standards Bureau.
[Yeah MacKerras is pretty good, he gets it right about 50% of the time]
OK. I’ll throw my 5 cent piece collection on the ground. Heads means Labor wins, Tails mean Liberal win.
Dio and the rest – I agree they shouldn’t be up, they are offensive.
But – offensive is in the eye of the beholder. Basically, what Kay Mousley has said is that it is outside of the scope of the electoral commission, normal state laws apply. Sex/violence/other things you couldn’t put a sign up of in public generally. So if you can put it on a poster and put it out your front door, you can put it up on a poster on a stobie pole.
Common sense I suppose.
[Advertising Standards Bureau]
Do they cover corflutes?
According to William’s post, that’s where it has ended up.
It is advertising so it is subject to standards.
Ahhh didn’t see that, thanks.
I don’t know why the hell Labor is continuing to campaign on the theme of “trust”, given that this is their Achillies’ heel.
If I were a Labor strategist, I would be running on a theme of EXPERIENCE. Rann had 11 years as Leader of the Opposition before he became Premier. Isobel Redmond hasn’t even been in the job for a year …
Ten News Adelaide just said that they want people to send them questions that they will consider using in the leaders debate on Wednesday. Send questions to:
adsnews@networkten.com.au
My question to both
Who is going to pay for the $3B of promises?
[Ten News Adelaide just said that they want people to send them questions that they will consider using in the leaders debate on Wednesday.]
Q: Ms Redmond. Your campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
I think Mackerras is spot on regarding the Upper House, and on Such being the only independent left. On the other hand I have no idea why he believes Labor would retain Newland while losing those five other seats.
[On the other hand I have no idea why he believes Labor would retain Newland while losing those five other seats.]
Maybe he thinks people won’t be willing to vote for Trash Draper?
ltep
Is Redmond really Mr Burns?
Unless something odd happens Mackeras will be wrong on LC. The group that gets 50% of votes will get 6 seats. That is much more likely to be Labor plus Greens than Libs plus FF plus Rah Rah.
If Hanna was able to withstand Labor at its high watermark of 2006, why does Mackerras think he’ll be in trouble now?
I understand the Liberal vote will rise, but you’d think there’d be plenty of people who’d park their protest vote with Hanna instead of the Libs, given it’s a fairly safe Labor seat.
91 Hanna only just got ahead of Libs last time. He has to finish first or 2nd out of last 3 and if Lib vote goes up a bit and Labor doesn’t drop a lot he could be third.
92
Yeah, but on current polling Labor’s vote WILL drop a lot. And if it turns out that it doesn’t drop alot, then the Liberal vote won’t be going up much either.
And I’m not convinced that any swing against Labor would automatically go to the Liberals, instead of a left-leaning Independent who’s been around for over a decade.
Maybe my criticism of MixSum for predicting Labor at up to $1.50 and Liberals down to $3.00 by yesterday, was a little premature. There has been further movement.
Labor is now $1.23 at Centrebet and Liberals are into $3.85.
Well, following in Mackeras’s footsteps, I too will be making a bold prediction. Afterall, these days Mackeras is no more reliable then any random anonymous blogger.
Disclaimer: Early days – Much could happen, preference deals yet to be anounced, nominations haven’t closed, blah, blah blah.
Lower House:
ALP: 25
LIB: 19
OTH: 3
Upper House predictions are a mugs game. Your waisting your time. But I do think that 5 for the Libs is pushing it. Still I might as well have a guess, how’s about:
ALP: 4
LIB: 4
GRN: 2
FF: 1
For a total of ALP 8, LIB 7, GRN 3, FF2, No Pokies 2.
I see Gamers4Croyden are running in lower house seats other than Croyden. That’s the most diseptive name since the Liberal Party.
I received a flier from the Abort SA candidate today – no contact details – just like the Family First flier received the other day. Has anyone noticed the unnerving look in the eye of Robert Brokenshire on the thousands of corflutes up around the city?
Dignity for Disability are making a good showing on the smell of an oily rag so it will be interesting to see where they lodge their preferences – Green or Family First or David Winderlich.The latter is certainly active but whether it is enough to carry the seat is another matter.
[OPPOSITION Leader Isobel Redmond has intensified her bid for critical country votes with a $35 million pledge for a new Barossa Valley hospital. ]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/liberals-offer-35-million-for-barossa-hospital/story-fn2sdwup-1225835811808
Libs hunting for Frome? Could they be any more obvious?
Port Adelaide mayor Gary Johanson is unlikely to run against Kevin Foley, according to Nick Xenophon on ABC Radio a little while ago.
Xenophon is being coy with his endorsements. He did not back Johanson (who was “too late” in making up his mind whether to run) and will not be supporting Frome Independent Geoff Brock this time (“I’ll be in Canberra”). Democrats deserter David Winderlich hasn’t been able to woo Xenophon thus far.
Independent Kris Hanna in Mitchell may well be the canny Mr X’s only beneficiary this election.
If you wanted a reason to stick with Labor, you only had to hear the Libs health spokesman Duncan McFetridge’s bumbling effort on hospitals on ABC Radio this morning.
Peter, I’m surprised you haven’t yet commented on the Media Watch segment on Mr Atkinson this week.