The Sunday Mail has published a survey of 574 voters in the eastern Adelaide seat of Morialta which shows Liberal candidate John Gardner with a 52-48 lead over Labor incumbent Lindsay Simmons, pointing to a swing to the Liberals of nearly 10 per cent. This supports the general view that Labor faces a particular problem in this seat – more so than in other seats with smaller margins – and replicates the result of a Labor internal poll I’ve heard rumours of. The primary vote figures are 43 per cent for the Liberals (35.2 per cent at the 2006 election), 35 per cent for Labor (47.7 per cent), 4 per cent for the Greens (6.3 per cent) and 3 per cent each for the Democrats (3.0 per cent) and Family First (5.7 per cent).
Highlights of week one:
• Mike Smithson writes in today’s Sunday Mail that Liberal tracking polling of six marginal seats had them 48-52 behind in October, 51-49 ahead a month ago and 53-47 ahead 11 days ago. Leaving aside the trend, the meaning of these figures depends entirely on what the six seats are, which we are not told. If it’s the six most marginal Labor seats, it points to a swing of about 7.5 per cent on the latest figure: enough to cost Labor seven seats, which would reduce them to 21 seats out of 48. “The rumour on the street”, says Smithson, is that Labor polling tells a similar story. Curiously, Smithson’s line in last week’s column was that Mawson, Hartley and Newland would be “retained by Labor and that’s that”. Norwood, Light and Chaffey were rated “strong possibilities” for the Liberals, along with independent-held Frome and Mount Gambier, but Morialta was “still a better than an even chance” for Labor. Smithson also believed Labor were an outside chance in Liberal-held Stuart and Unley and independent-held Mitchell.
• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser wrote a week ago that Liberal polling gave them “a very strong chance of winning Newland, Mawson, Light and Morialta”. Labor is reportedly “banking” on picking up Mitchell from independent Kris Hanna, which could be a perverse consequence of a Liberal resurgence relegating Hanna to third place and denying him a win on Liberal preferences. UPDATE (1/3): Today Kelton reports Labor is pessimistic about Morialta, Newland and Light, but more bullish about Hartley and Bright.
• The formal announcement of the campaign came days after Mike Rann announced a plan to resolve Adelaide’s signature infrastructure headache by duplicating the Southern Expressway. This presently runs one way towards the city in the morning before changing direction for the afternoon. Rann trumped the opposition in making the surprise announcement last Wednesday, which had planned to make a similar promise later in the day. Greg Kelton of The Advertiser reports Isobel Redmond had somehow “fluffed an opportunity to get in first” during a radio interview in the morning, “despite prompting from her staff”. Labor’s $445 million costing for the project ($370 million for the duplication, with the remainder to be spent on the Darlington interchange) compelled the Liberals to recalculate their own sums, which reportedly had it at $270 million. Shadow Finance Minister Rob Lucas was sent out to “take one for the party” (in the words of a Liberal source quoted by Greg Kelton) by announcing that while Labor’s Labor’s promise would be matched, further details would not be forthcoming until later in the campaign. Isobel Redmond was apparently unable to do so because of “other engagements”, while Shadow Treasurer Steven Griffiths was “believed to be in Maitland”. The confusion in the Liberal camp let Labor off the hook over a statement made by Transport Minister Patrick Conlon seven months ago that the cost of the project – then put at $280 million – was more than the government could afford. The most sensitive marginal seats serviced by the expressway are Mawson and Bright, along with Mitchell which Labor hopes to recover from independent Kris Hanna. Transport Minister Pat Conlon has further sought to concentrate the electorate advantage by promising quotas on the employment of workers on the project, which will require that 750 out of 1500 come from the southern suburbs, and another 200 be workers who are young or from “other disadvantaged groups”. However, he concedes this unwieldy sounding policy does not come with an “iron-clad guarantee”.
• Staying in the general area, the Prime Minister joined Mike Rann yesterday in promising an $18 million overpass to improve safety at the intersection of Victor Harbor Road and Main Road in McLaren Vale, located in the marginal seat of Mawson.
• Renato Castello of the Sunday Mail reports the government hurried through a rezoning at Gawler Racecourse shortly before it went into caretaker mode, allowing for development of a 4.3 hectare shopping centre and office development. It is unclear how clever an idea this is vis-a-vis the knife-edge marginal of Light, as the development is opposed by a local council that believes it will divert trade from downtown Gawler.
• Mike Rann went to Port Augusta on Thursday to promote $18.2 million of local spending on the mining industry and a promised $5 million sporting complex, presumably in a bid to keep the heat on the Liberals in Stuart.
• During an ABC Radio debate with Hartley Labor MP Grace Portolesi, Liberal candidate Joe Scalzi gamely voiced support for anti-abortion corflutes which have appeared around Adelaide courtesy of independent upper house candidate Trevor Grace. The posters, which feature a premature baby’s disfigured head, are the subject of an investigation by the Advertising Standards Bureau.
• Vickie Chapman has complained to the Electoral Commission about a newsletter in which Labor MP Vini Ciccarello claims credit for two projects in Kensington. The projects are actually located in Chapman’s seat of Bragg, but are to be transferred to Ciccarello’s seat of Norwood as a result of the redistribution.
• Port Adelaide mayor and Liberal Party member Gary Johanson says he is considering running as an independent against Deputy Premier and Treasurer Kevin Foley in Port Adelaide. Coalition for the Protection of Racehorses SA campaign co-ordinator Colin Thomas, who polled 8.8 per cent as Greens candidate in federal Port Adelaide in 2007, will run as an independent against Racing Minister Michael Wright in Lee.
• Former Democrats MLC Sandra Kanck has re-emerged as an election candidate, albeit in the radically unwinnable third position on the party’s upper house ticket. The lead candidate is Jeanie Walker, followed by Tom Salerno.
• After long-running and uninteresting stand-off between the two parties, which at one point had broadcaster Channel Ten threatening to withdraw, the leaders debate has been set for Wednesday.
This has been a Liberal seat forever and was the surprise package at the last election; I don’t think anyone seriously thought it was winnable until it was won!
It was always going to be hard for Labor to hold for this reason alone, and the media have been very unkind to Lindsay Simmons over the past four years which hasn’t helped matters for her one bit.
Agreed Chinda. The 2006 results for this electorate always looked pretty weird to me, even bearing in mind the Rannslide effect.
I repost part of my contribution from Jan 12th:
“Hartley, Morialta and Newland look potentially winnable for the liberals, but the selection of has-been candidates like Joe Scalzi and Trish Draper makes liberal advances less likely in Hartley and Newland. So I think Morialta is the most likely of these 3 to fall.”
This poll just reinforces my view that things are pretty tight in Morialta.
I think Xanthippe and I are among those transferred into Morialta from Bragg. I was surprised at the extent of the swing but understand now given the history. I haven’t seen much of her at this end of the electorate, though have nothing against her as our member. There has been a fair turnover of property owners around our area in the past few years, so there may still be some opportunty for her to campaign here and swing any undecided newcomers.
I don’t suppose she could promise to fix the Brittania roundabout (I have a solution!), or commit to completing a priority bus route across from the end of The Parade to the city? Apart from that, improved traffic management and signal coordination along Magill and Glynburn Road would help. DTEI traffic control at Norwood is hopeless in catering for east-wext movements from Morialta. I suspect they all live in the north-east and focus on giving themselves a good run home.
My favourite Sunday Mail article title from today:
“Undecideds may hold key to outcome”.
Pure genius.
With Michael Atkinson and Tom Koutsantonis out there promoting the stable for Simmons, he has been handed some excess weight to carry, so the current polling may reflect a gutsy effort really.
The Rann effect is no doubt having an impact on Lindsay Simmons and the ravings of Michael Atkinson haven’t helped either. Neither has the Sunday Mail which has been mischievous in the way that it wrote up a non story about Thorndon Park a couple of weeks ago. One wonders which internal enemy leaked cabinet papers for a no decision and why. Nevertheless Lindsay has been a hard worker on the ground and has a wealth of experience. That this seems to be overlooked in this poll in favour of a Christopher Pyne, wet behind the ears but smart, protege says a lot about the way that people are feeling about the government.
Morialta looks and feels like a liberal electorate – if labor hang on and win consecutive terms in this seat it will say more about liberal weakness over a period of time than any other factors.
Socrates
[I don’t suppose she could promise to fix the Brittania roundabout (I have a solution!) ]
Every election someone says they will fix that roundabout. My parents live near it and were asking why no-one had said they would fix it last night at the fireworks.
sykesie
Agree. I used to live there (it was Coles in those days). The surprising thing is that it was ever Labor not that it will go back to the Libs (probably).
But a 10% swing is a 10% swing and even if you allow 3% as a correction for over-achieving in 2006, it still could be a 7% state-wide swing.
ShowsOn’s prediction of a hung parliament looks better and better.
Looks pretty fixed to me.
http://maps.google.com.au/maps?hl=en&tab=wl
Hopefully, this is the correct link
http://maps.google.com.au/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Britannia+Roundabout&sll=-34.92772,138.6236&sspn=0.000985,0.001714&ie=UTF8&ll=-34.92783,138.623275&spn=0.00104,0.001714&t=h&z=19
GG
That roundabout used to be so bad that there was permanently a tow truck waiting in the carpark for the next crash. I was talking to a crash repairer about it and he said it looked like it was going to rain. I asked why that made any difference. He said “It’s not just the farmers who pray for rain.”
And Rann loses most trustworthy to Redmond again by 49%-38%. Why are Labor still mentioning “who can you trust” all the time?
Diogs,
“used to be”!
Once an issue, always an issue. Perhaps Isobel can start saying, she’ll put, “more value in the pound”.
William
The link to this thread (allegedly) on the previous SA thread is still wRONg. It takes one to a “Page Not Found” page.
[ Why are Labor still mentioning “who can you trust” all the time? ]
They really don’t want to be in government?
Why? Perhaps they really don’t want to clean up their own mess…better to leave it to someone else to do.
No shocks here. I’d be surprised if the swing is much smaller in any of the other eastern suburban seats – among other things, the land tax hikes have pretty much been poison for Labor around these parts.
This feeds into my growing suspicion that SA ’10 = WA ’08.
itsthevibe
[This feeds into my growing suspicion that SA ‘10 = WA ‘08.]
Possibly even down to a spin-driven ex-journalist with a reputation for achieving very little with an ill-fated decision to build a new hospital.
[Why? Perhaps they really don’t want to clean up their own mess…better to leave it to someone else to do.]
Try going to the eastern states and living there for a while. Then you’ll realise issues here are pretty mild in comparison.
If Lindsay Simmons hadn’t fluked a big win in Morialta last time, a 48 percent vote for Labor in this Liberal electorate would look pretty good when put in the context of history. That said, there were some long faces at the ALP launch today. If Labor is lucky, it will be a hung parliament but there’s every chance the undeserving Libs will sneak in.
As a pretty average driver who has successfully negotiated the Britannia roundabout thousands of times, I reckon it’s a paper tiger. You shouldn’t have a licence if you can’t handle the Brit.
[…but there’s every chance the undeserving Libs will sneak in.]
Which is crazy considering the Libs have been a complete circus for 85% of this term.
I’m still of the opinion the biggest effect in this election will be a portion of labor’s primary vote transferring to the greens with a smaller leakage to the liberals. We all know where green preferences go in droves.
I saw Mike Rann at Writers Week today. He looked pretty relaxed. He is tough as nails and won’t be put off unduly by this poll.
Pass the popcorn.
[I saw Mike Rann at Writers Week today. He looked pretty relaxed. He is tough as nails and won’t be put off unduly by this poll.
Pass the popcorn.]
AKA, the campaign is turning from boring to interesting?
bob
I wouldn’t go that far.
Rann is really on the nose with female voters and is losing badly on trust.
I noticed quite a few security guards around him today. I had a look for Chanto but didn’t see her. She is clearly responsible for the female voter and trust problem. I don’t know how Rann combats that.
[I had a look for Chanto but didn’t see her. She is clearly responsible for the female voter and trust problem. I don’t know how Rann combats that.]
I don’t expect an apology from Psephos or the other Laborites anytime soon for them howling me down for saying months ago that this has a very real potential to destroy the Rann government’s re-election chances. They need to stop looking at everything through rose-coloured glasses.
I love being proven right. Because I am always right.
🙂
TT – you were at the Labor Campaign Launch? How did you get a ticket?
I know ALP members who RSVP’d before the recommended date and found out at the beginning of this week that they didn’t get a guernsey …
[ MIKE Rann has promised to create 100,000 jobs over the next six years as he officially launched Labor’s election campaign today. ]
What a load of crap. He’s “created” 65000 in the last 8 years but he now says he’s got 100000 up his sleeve in the next 6 years. Is he really expecting anyone to believe this rubbish.
[What a load of crap. He’s “created” 65000 in the last 8 years but he now says he’s got 100000 up his sleeve in the next 6 years. Is he really expecting anyone to believe this rubbish.]
I think the point is, when was the last time that a SA Labor government wasn’t re-elected where the economy was in growth rather than recession? Not to mention a range of other positive rather than negative factors. But I spose when the party has changed so much in recent times, maybe this point is moot.
I love the title of this poll’s article as listed in http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia …
[Marginals crisis for Rann]
Umm, Marginal is singular, Marginals is plural. The poll was done for Morialta, one where Simmons only call to fame is a fiery encounter with a hairdresser, and one that has more of a tendancy to be Liberal than Hartley or Newland.
bob
The unemployment rate when Rann took office was about 6%. He has “created” 65000 jobs since then and it has dropped to about 5%, which was a good effort.
Now he expects us that he can double his job creation rate coming from a lower unemployment rate. It’s pure BS.
[Now he expects us that he can double his job creation rate coming from a lower unemployment rate.]
Why are you connecting job creation and unemployment rate? The unemployment rate could stay the same or even increase as more jobs are being created.
How did I get a ticket to the launch? Natural charm.
Thats incorrect Diogenes – since 2002, labor have created 111,000 new jobs including 65,000 full-time jobs.
Unemployment rate – wrong again. In January 2002 the unemployment rate was 7.2%. In January 2010 it was 4.4%, the lowest of any mainland state.
sykesie
That makes it even more unlikely that he will create 100000 jobs! There were plenty of people looking for jobs in 2002 and there are much less now.
It’s been known for weeks that Labor is struggling in Morialta. That’s why the Sunday Mail chose to poll there: to create some anti-Labor momentum which in turn will influence other polls.
While The Advertiser has been reasonably even-handed, the Sunday Mail specialises in pro-Liberal or (more often) anti-Labor stories.
Diogenes – firstly if you are going to quote statistics, a quick visit to the ABS website will give you what you need.
Secondly, population growth is the most important driver of employment growth. Although South Australia’s population growth is modest compared to most states, it is much higher than it has been for a long time.
Toorak – I was at Norwood Concert Hall today – could have been a pollbludger day out 🙂
sykesie
I was quoting a Mike Rann press release!
[There have been a total of 65,100 new jobs created in South Australia since the Rann Labor Government came to office in March 2002.]
http://www.adamant.com.au/our_clients/browse/www.premier.sa.gov.au/news.php?id=1999
That press release was from August 2007 🙂
Oh so it was. My bad.
I’ll forgive you – I think jobs is one area this government has impeccable credentials.
Toorak Toff #32
[ How did I get a ticket to the launch? Natural charm.
]
You forgot to add…
AND good looks PLUS impeccable fashion sense
[I’ll forgive you – I think jobs is one area this government has impeccable credentials.]
True. It would be a massive mistake for anyone other than Kevin Foley to be treasurer for the next term.
Long promised campaign updates now added.
hmm, the prospect that the Liberals could actually win is starting to concern me. I hope they fudged that internal polling. I suppose quite a lot of the cross bench would be sympathetic to them.
Although he’s been troublesome at times, I think Kris Hana is more or less a good bloke and although I probably wouldnt give him my primary vote, I hope he’s returned. With any luck his vote in relation to the Liberals will improve.
[by announcing that while Labor’s Labor’s promise would be matched]
Nice one bilbo 😛
[During an ABC Radio debate with Hartley Labor MP Grace Portolesi, Liberal candidate Joe Scalzi gamely voiced support for anti-abortion which have appeared around Adelaide courtesy of independent upper house candidate Trevor Grace. The posters, which feature a premature baby’s disfigured head, are the subject of an investigation by the Advertising Standards Bureau.]
This would have to be one of the more peculiar and interesting points of the campaign thus far…
Dio
I know your views on the hospital but I don’t perceive they are shared in the general community. Xanthippe is on a commitee with health people (who all work in the RAH) and they don’t care. From an engineering POV I flatly don’t beleive the opposition claim that the RAH can be refurbished for less cost than building a new hospital. That is almost never the case – you can’t just shut down a hospital during the construction phase, and major building work in the grounds of a functioning hosptial would eb a nightmare – very labor intensive and therefore expensive.
That being said, I think Labor is panicking too much. They should remain calm and remind the electorate of the many stupid things the Libs have said rather than make exaggerated promises. In this respect the campaign add about nuclear waste is stupid. They are on the one hand promising to expand Olympic Dam and on the other hand running a scare campaign on the other sides views on nuclear power. Remind people about fake emails, stupid financial promises, and stadium fetishes instead. As Sykesie said, their job creation record has been good, so there is no need to promise something that won’t happen.
[That being said, I think Labor is panicking too much. They should remain calm and remind the electorate of the many stupid things the Libs have said rather than make exaggerated promises.]
Negative campaigning does not help.
Sykesie
[Secondly, population growth is the most important driver of employment growth. Although South Australia’s population growth is modest compared to most states, it is much higher than it has been for a long time.]
Dead right, but it is a circular relationship – job growth attracts population. Unemployment in SA is now below 5% and below the national average. That must be a first for many years. Rann should campaign on that. We have had the long feared Mitsubishi closure and the sky hasn’t fallen in, despite a worldwide recession. The SA economy really isn’t that bad. In % terms, Adelaide’s population is now growing faster than Sydney. I doubt that has been true any other time since the 1960s.