Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthy New South Wales state Newspoll has Labor recovering its equilibrium after the leadership trauma of late last year: they are up four points on the November-December survey to 30 per cent, back where they were in September-October. Much of this comes from the disappearance of a surge to the Greens at the expense of Labor in the previous poll – they are back to the 12 per cent they recorded in September-October, down five points on last time. There is good news for Kristina Keneally personally: her debut approval rating is 41 per cent against 26 per cent disapproval, slightly better than the 41 per cent and 30 per cent for Barry O’Farrell, whom she leads 40-31 as preferred premier. However, the primary vote gap (very important under optional preferential voting) of 30 per cent to 44 per cent points to the same drubbing foreseen for Labor at every other poll of the past few years. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead of 57-43 is down from 59-41 last time, but still up on 55-45 the time before due to a two point primary vote gain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

240 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition in NSW”

Comments Page 2 of 3
1 2 3
  1. Hamish Coffee

    [ And do you really think that Sartor would make people listen? ]

    He may not be inspirational – if that is what you are asking about. But who is inspirational in Labor? KK may make people look – but people won’t listen.

    Frank would provide a “seady as she goes” feel. A calm. It would be reassuring. That is what Labor needs to survive going into 2011. Labor has to select the best person to lead it. That person is Frank Sartor – by a country mile. He has run a large government organisation, he understands government finance and budgeting. Keneally clearly has little understanding of these things – and people will be scared off . Don’t forget Frank only lost the Right wing ballot by 3 votes – so there are a lot of people who agree with my assessment.

    From what I can fathom Keneally only won the ballot because:-
    a. Joe and Edde believe they can control her.
    b. It was the biggest gamble taken by Labor ever, simply based on her being female. Anna Bligh won in Qld. But KK aint no Anna Bligh. It was like the drunken punter at Randwick losing his pay coming into the last race. To get his money back he needs a 100/1 shot to win – and finds some horse at that price and convinces himself it can win – so lays his money down. He passes over the rest of the field, alll of which have superior form. Yes, the 100/1 shot may win, but it needs a miracle.

    As to your statement she is doing fine, you clearly haven’t been watching question time for the last 2 days.

    As to referring to opposition quotes – I am simply putting it out there. KK couldn’t explain it in parliament – she just used glib lines. If she has a comprehensible explanation for the opposition claims, I am all ears. But I suspect she can’t explain it. She just doesn’t understand economics or government finance. It’s game over for Labor unless they change horses —and quickly.

  2. “you clearly haven’t been watching question time for the last 2 days. ”

    Not I or 99.9% of the rest of the state. I have been reading the papers and watching the news though, along with being a public servant in the NSW Government, and I think that both the media and the Government (as in the PS) are taking more notice of KK than anyone since Carr.

    I also think, while Sartor is undoubtably diligent and a hard worker, that he has too much baggage and is too much of an unexciting middle aged man (with all due respect) to really pull people back.

    And frankly I think the Joe and Eddie stuff is garbage that has only been getting a run because of Rees’ parting words.

    Just my thoughts, but I think that KK will get Labor the best result they can get under the circumstances.

  3. HC

    you must have missed the front page of the SMH today about the major funding blunder from the Transport Blueprint announced 2 days ago

    Or the major blunder from the ticketing system announced 2 weeks ago

  4. Hamish Coffee

    I appreciate that very few people watch QT – and few get to even read about it. The advantage of watching QT is one gets to see how people react and how well they have mastered their assigned portfolios. It is on the basis of those observations I have drawn my conclusions, not newspaper reports.

    If you think that KK is “young” and not middle-aged – you are wrong. She is 40. So where is all the “excitement”?

    Frank’s alleged baggage is rubbish. One has certain thoughts where it came from, and it wouldn’t stand the stand of scrutiny.

    I don’t understand where the PS get all the excitement from…as far as I am aware the only thing KK has done since becoming Premier is attend photo shoots. No new policy directions (other than ferries and the transport blueprint), no new instructions as to how governance will work. If there have been such things they haven’t been communicated to the public outside the PS. Therefore I am perplexed by the PS “excitement”. I could be crude and suggest the type of excitement it my be causing–but i wont.

    I personally think you have rocks in your head if you think KK will save more furniture than Sartor would – or even Nathan Rees.

  5. P.S. Frank got sacked from the Planning portfolio because he failed to approve enough developments !!! That’s baggage I would prefer to carry than the baggage KK carries of approving practically every development – and over-riding the wishes of local residents.

  6. Just reading yesterday’s Hansard and came across this in which sets out the new and exciting way KK is running government in NSW (which apparently has the PS all a titter){-

    [ On behalf of the shadow Minister, the Hon. Duncan Gay in another place, I lead for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition in debate on the Gas Supply Amendment Bill 2009. Before I commence my contribution I express some displeasure and disappointment at having been approached a few moments ago by Government staff members who informed me that although debate on this bill is about to commence the Government is still drafting amendments to it and it is anticipated that those amendments will manifest themselves during debate. I think that is entirely unsatisfactory. Any negotiations that I might seek to have, in my capacity as representing the shadow Minister in another place, should have occurred with that shadow Minister rather than literally at the threshold of the resumption of debate on this bill.
    That unsatisfactory situation is a brief snapshot of the paralysis that has beset this Government and the ways in which it does business ]

    Debate on the Bill had been adjourned since 2 December 2009- so the government had 10 weeks to get the amendments to it’s own Bill in order – but couldn’t and was still working on them as debate proceeded.

    This is KK’s “new excitement” in government !!!

    see: 11.46am, Hansard , 24 february 2010.

  7. KK has chosen a grey jacket over a black pair of trousers (her stockings must have laddered shortly before QT) for her appearance in the chamber at QT today.

  8. The parliament erupted into disorder!
    The Speaker described it as appalling conduct.
    A Liberal took a point of order –
    I draw your attention to the fact the Member for Fairfield is operating a remote control device in the chamber. It appears to be attached to the Premier

    or similar words.

  9. Itep…..he aint pretty. Nobody cares. On the other hand many think KK is a poster girl, very pretty and photogenic. Thus what she is wearing is important. Can’t wait until the day she comes to QT wearing a bikini.

  10. Now over at the Legislative Council Dr John Kaye has moved a motion for a call for papers on the Tillegra Dam. Labor opposes it (yes they are true believers in open and transparent government-NOT). Division has been called.

  11. Dr Kaye’s call for papers was successful 18 votes to 13.

    Why do Labor oppose these motions?

    1. They usually lose.
    2. It must be in the public interest that there be full and complete disclosure regarding controversial projects.

  12. [Why do Labor oppose these motions?]

    Replace ‘Labor’ with ‘governments’. Governments always seem to think they know best and no one else should be able to look at the information available to them.

    This of course ignores the fact that it’s absurd to ask a Parliament to make certain decisions without the same information available to them.

  13. Division called on the question whether leave should be granted to allow the CBD Metro call for papers motion to proceed. Labor doesn’t want to grant leave. Guess the result will be the same as Dr John Kaye’s motion. Don’t know why they bother. Leave was granted 17 votes to 13. On the question of the the call for papers Labor opposes it on the basis that –
    a. It costs too much money.
    b. The CBD Metro is not proceeding and has been cancelled.
    c. “Significant” information is available on the website.
    d. Labor has adopted the Liberals plans for south-west and north-west rail links.
    e. Labor will compensate tenderers for the money wasted by them on Metro tenders.
    f. Labor will compensate landholders and tenants for costs incurred in relation to the Metro.
    g. Labor has listened to the community and abandoned the Metro.
    h. With all the money wasted by the government on compensation and the Metro, it is stupid to waste further money on photocopying the documents required for the call for papers.
    i. The opposition always opposed the Metro – why are they now interested in the Metro?
    j. The call for papers is too wide.
    k. The time period allowed to get the papers together is too short.
    l. It is only a “fishing expedition”.
    m. The meaning of the terms in the call are uncertain, e.g. what does the word “draft documents” mean – is it the first draft, the 2nd draft or the final draft.

    Amended the motion to allow the period of time to deliver the papers.

    The motion was then carried on the voices – no division was required.

  14. I agree HC and you are all forgetting one thing 95% of people don’t give 2 tosses about politics. As long as she doesn’t make complete embarassing blunders when it comes to voting many women will identify with her and many men will find her more appealing than the Barrel. Oh and then there’s the policy which probably accounts for 10% of the desicion process.
    unfortunately us tragics only make up the 5%. So as HC said she will do better than anyone else in the situation. And mark my words ALP will only just lose.

  15. Latest tweet from premierofnsw :-
    premierofnsw Labor MP Ian West will face court in April for slapping (not punching) a developer. I guess the developers donation wasn’t large enough.

  16. The SMH journalists who had their reputations sullied by David Campbell are not going to forget that, despite Campbell’s apology to them.

    [ The government continued to claim yesterday that Mr Campbell had been misled by the company in charge of the website, Bang the Table, and that is why he misled the house. But the report the company gave the government over access to its transport blueprint website did not allege any criminal actions.
    It said only that the matter was ”being referred to the NSW Police Department to see if a crime has been committed”.
    Mr Campbell, in his original statement, had told the house that the accessing of the website had been the equivalent of moving to ”pick the lock of a secure office to take highly confidential documents”. ]

  17. How the Labor hacks in here continue to support KKK is beyond me.

    I didn’t think anyone could stoop to support a corrupt NSW government, but it seems I have been proven wrong.

  18. Was this thread set up as a soapbox for Peter Young just for him to vent his spleen on a government that he (and a lot of other people) hate. Forty boring, repetitive posts out of seventy one. I believe he is moving on today. Thank Christ for that.

  19. OH DEAR!!!

    Rudd caught out telling pork pies and big fat lies on boatpeople. Who woulda thought?

    [The number of new asylum seekers coming to Britain has plummeted by 30% in the past year and the flow of central and east European migrants, including from Poland, has also continued to decline, according to the 2009 immigration figures published today.]

    So what happened to this apparant worldwide asylum seeker increase that apparantly was happening according to the Rudd government? BULLSHIT!

    The only country to experience a 1600% increase in boatpeople in 2009 was Australia. Gee I wonder why? Could it have anything to do with Rudd rolling out the red carpet for illegals and people smugglers and giving boatpeople a one way ticket to a lifetime of centrelink benefits?

  20. No one is suggesting that Labor will win the next state NSW election, but I find the commentary from the MSM fascinating. Labor is getting similar 2PPs to what Howard was getting but they are so much more negative about KK

  21. [Labor is getting similar 2PPs to what Howard was getting but they are so much more negative about KK]

    2PP is irrelevent if your Primaries are in the dumpster.

    Bugs Bunny would have a better chance of winning the next state election than Labor.

  22. 74# You dolt. Australia has a tiny number of asylum seekers compared to pretty well all other developed nations. There is an increase here because of conflict in the region, mostly Sri Lanka. Take off the blinkers mate.

  23. Here’s something to liven up a Friday night:

    This is a political advertisement in the lead up to elections in Costa Rica. Watch it – you’ve never seen a political ad like it.

    A rough translation of the lyrics is: “I’m voting for Luis, my baby is born, the less bad is the best, that’s why I’ll elect is the best! It is realistic and honest, I believe in him. In February I vote for Luis! The least bad is the best: Fishman.”

    Apparently Fishman ran a campaign based around the concept that all the candidates suck, but he sucks the least. It didn’t quite work – the election was held earlier this month and Fishman pulled in just 3.8 per cent of the vote.

  24. Mike Carlton can be relied upon to take the piss out of anyone parading.

    He seems to have nailed Keneally
    [ There was much to applaud in the launch of the state government’s thrilling new transport ”blueprint”. The Premier’s hairstyle, for a start. What a fabulous confection it is, a flyaway triumph of art over gravity. She looks like she’s at the helm of a yacht close-hauled on the starboard tack in a 40-knot gale. Perhaps it’s a style they fancy in her home town of Toledo, Ohio.]
    Holy Toledo: a voyage into the future with Corporal Keneally

    That windsept yachtie look is not poetic licence – its real and the look varies with the strength of the breeze

  25. GG – #84

    I am well aware of the issue of the Rushcutters Bay Tennis courts. Passions run high. However, it is confined to a very small area (actually miniscule in comparison to the whole local government area). Charles Waterstreet – I greatly admire. He defended one of the terrorists in the recent longest running terrorist trial, who received outrageous setence and appeals are expected to be lodged. He is a great writer and humourist. He puts one side of the story.

    Let me explain why this is not the beginning of the end for Clover.

    She has always had staunch over the top critics – who try anything to discredit her.

    She has always been hated by Labor (20% of the vote) and Liberals (20% of the vote) and they combine together on council (2 out of 10 councillors !!!) to attempt to embarrass her. The Greens have 20% of the vote, and they are lukewarm (although they provided substantial assistance in 2004 to ensure the defeat of Labor – but have since cooled). So that means there are 60% people against her – something she has always lived with.

    So she has only 40% support on primary vote. But do you know what? On the distribution of preferences she gets up to 70% of the 2CP. This is because she gets the majority of the preferences of those excluded candidates that putatively hate her.

    Labor with 1 councillor out of 10 – are irrelevant to Sydney.

    Suck it up princess.

  26. Well known moderate commentator Miranda Devine asks the really pertinent questions about the reign of Clover Moore.

    “So what exactly does our Lord Mayor, Clover Moore, do? That is, apart from hijacking New Year’s Eve celebrations to deliver trite sermons about ”catastrophic” climate change, banning ”cruel” food like Tim Tams from council events, and pushing politically correct Christmas decorations”.

  27. GG

    Just so you are not talking through your hat on this issue, I will head off for coffee now and on my way take some pics of the tennis courts and put them up on Flickr for you to judge for yourself whether they are adequately maintained or have been allowed to run down , and whether you think some improvements could be achieved.

    Have to say Rory has been running a superb campaign. For that he deserves congratulations.

    see: Central magazine, February 24. Front page

  28. GG

    Now you quoting Miranda Devine as the font of all wisdom? LOL 😆

    If you take the view as I do, that all action is local, then the examples that Miranda gives are indeed great examples of “local action”. Of course, if you don’t agree with the larger scale thing that the “local action” is directed at, you would perceive such local actions as ridiculous.

    e.g. if you don’t believe in climate change, then you would reckon local actions to reduce carbon emissions, save water and reduce electricity consumption as stupid.

  29. PY,

    Don’t worry about the photos. Google earth has made you redundant (not that you were ever dundant).

    Looks like a typical smelly inner suburban real estate deal lead by a populist rhetoritician to take away a much loved and appreciated community asset from the people who actually use it.

    Clover’s popularity is slip sliding away as you fulminate.

    I wonder if it requires an ICAC reference.

  30. All gags aside, Sydney would be an interesting contest if Moore is on the nose. It’s got enough Liberal areas, and the polls are favourable enough, that the Libs as well as Labor could mount a serious challenge.

  31. Itep

    [ What does this even mean? Is it not just a meaningless slogan? ]

    Why do you always have to get to the pith of a subject and ask the hard questions?

    Yes it is a slogan.

    No it is not meaningless, it has the meaning that the reader/listener places upon it.

    As to what it is intended to mean – its a vague concept. It kinda refers to the idea that change starts in your own backyard, that if you want to change the world, you first have to change your own way of doing things, that there is no point of pontificating about great issues, unless you actually do yourself what you able to do, that it is better to lead by example rather than imposing regulations…if you get my drift.

    I probably shouldn’t use the slogan….but I note Labor had great success with the slogan “working families”…so I was just imitating.

  32. MDMC – #97

    State seat – Hard to call. Gentrification plus sky-scraper residential buildings in the heart of the city – must give Liberals a leg up. I had suggested on another thread to look at Upper House vote in all Sydney booths. Someone did post a reply – but I can’t remember what it was and I don’t think they linked to anything supporting their statement. Anyway, Clover is there from 2011-2015 (at least). Area is changing rapidly. I just think it’s very difficult to call this far out from 2015 (at least).

    Council. Labor are really on the nose. Don’t know how long that smell will last. Don’t know what traditional Labor supportters would do if they didn’t have an “out” – as Clover currently supplies them.

Comments Page 2 of 3
1 2 3

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *