Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthy New South Wales state Newspoll has Labor recovering its equilibrium after the leadership trauma of late last year: they are up four points on the November-December survey to 30 per cent, back where they were in September-October. Much of this comes from the disappearance of a surge to the Greens at the expense of Labor in the previous poll – they are back to the 12 per cent they recorded in September-October, down five points on last time. There is good news for Kristina Keneally personally: her debut approval rating is 41 per cent against 26 per cent disapproval, slightly better than the 41 per cent and 30 per cent for Barry O’Farrell, whom she leads 40-31 as preferred premier. However, the primary vote gap (very important under optional preferential voting) of 30 per cent to 44 per cent points to the same drubbing foreseen for Labor at every other poll of the past few years. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead of 57-43 is down from 59-41 last time, but still up on 55-45 the time before due to a two point primary vote gain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

240 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. KK has gone from funereal black yesterday to a very light coloured dress suit for today’s question time.

    Maybe media reports of her looking like a funeral director yesterday have upset her, and she has decided to change from one extreme to another.

    A real fashion flip-flop.

  2. #5

    If 57-43 is “saving the furniture” I’d hate to see a landslide….

    All polls in the past 6 months have been bouncing around 57-43 (55-45, 59-41, 56-44), so there’s been no significant change either way.

  3. Campbell’s going to be safe no matter what. Funny thing, the most likely way Firth is going to survive is if Labor loses so many votes to the Liberals that they overtake the Greens into second place. Staunching the flow to the Libs as Keneally might do may doom Firth. All that having been said, if it meant keeping some of the marginals west of the city, I’d jettison Firth too – Labor will get Balmain back, some of those other seats, when lost to the Libs will be lost for a few cycles.

  4. Frank Sartor answering a dorothy dixer. He is a far more impressive parliamentary performer than KK.

    But Labor wouldn’t touch him – despite the recommendation of the General Secretary. Instead Labor caved into the demands of Joe and Eddie – and they put their girl in the job.

  5. KK was asked a question about finance and the budget. A very unconvincing answer. It is apparent she has no economic credentials and doesn’t understand government finacing. She was just spruiking liNes – but they didn’t really fit the question.

    This is going to be a major problem area for the government. Unfortuantely as the Treasurer is in the Upper House, and there is no-one in the lower house who can speak the ‘economic lingo”, except Joe Tripodi who is on the back-bench, this is going to be a major problem for the government over the next 12 mnths.

  6. Surely this must be the end of Joe and eddie’s control of Labor.

    They put in Iemma. They put in Rees. They put in KK.

    On today’s performance, KK is going nowhere fast. It was a very lack lustre parliamentary performance and nowhere near the performances of Iemma or Rees.

    Surely MP’s won’t trust the judgment of Joe and Eddie again. The only thing that will save them, is that they control the pre-selections and many of those who are likely to be saved are beholden to them. So what chance is there for genuine renewal?

  7. Gibbo is having a go at the god-botherers in the Liberal Party. He is warning of the dangers of god-botherers.

    Nice to see some-one in Labor prepared to expose the god-botherers.

  8. Labor + Green is down one point. Coalition unchanged.

    Will somebody – anybody – please promise to fix:

    1. The Spit Bridge / Military Road disgrace
    2. Royal North Shore Hospital (the place is kept together by string and tape)

    – and follow through with ACTION? It’s not just the western suburbs that needs infrastructure improvements. The status quo is not good enough anymore. This poll suggests it’s on for the Libs. I hope they follow through with some real action.

  9. No.

    Too expesnive to fit the Spit, and both are in safe seats.

    Labor promised the Spit fix last time to try to boost the Indy in Manly, but as soon as the Liberal was elected they “discovered” how impractical it would be.

  10. Geez – the Liberals are defending on the basis that Gibbo was attacking “all christians across the state” and suggesting that “all christians are deplorable”.

    Geez…..I would have thought it an undisputed fact that “all christians are deplorable”.

  11. “expose the god-botherers”

    You mean there are conservatives in the conservative party??

    Next thing you’ll tell me there’s trade unionists in the Labor party…..

  12. Cherie Burton is telling the Libs they “you are gunna hear it” – in relation to a motion that her speaking time be extended. The Liberals are saying politics should be kept seperate from religion. Someone just asked: “What underpants do you have on today” to Matt Brown as he spoke. The whole thing is outta control. Liberals are claiming every Christian across the state is offended { who cares – christians offend me all the time }.

  13. Division called on the god-botherer motion. KK hasn’t shown up for the count. I wonder if that is because she is a god-botherer herself.

  14. oops….that was only a division on the question of suspension of standing orders – to enable Cherie Burton to speak for longer. Carried 47-38.

  15. Cherie Burton says Fatty isn’t a good Liberal leader because he doesn’t wear budgie smugglers. Now she attacking Abbott for hating women. She says Abbott can’t tell her to do the ironing. She says the Liberals want to take the right to vote away from women. She is yelling.

  16. Now Liberal Brad Hazzard is defending people’s rights to be religious and suggesting religious views are good { geez – some think it should be a criminal offence to be a god-botherer }. Now Gibbo is in reply. He is pointing out the Liberals tried to knock off David Clarke – a christian – last week and failed. Gibbo is claiming KK will be 63 points ahead of Fatty by the election { I think Gibbo has lost the plot – it’s about christian influence…not the polls }.

  17. PY, I really don’t think we need a running commentary on question time. Especially since neither side seems to be contributing anything constructive.

  18. MDMConnell – #24

    I thought it was the proper thing to do. The in-clique do it on the other thread for federal parliament. I just learnt from the old hands.

  19. #24

    But I do see your point. This is my last post of commentary. It just fills up pages unnecessarily and is boring. It takes the discussion nowhere. Just note KK didn’t front–she squibbed it.

  20. Surely the Lib hard heads realise that the next election is a shoe in, unless they do something incredibly stupid.

    Like keeping Barry

  21. kin mrn

    barry has a certain presence

    funereal mostly

    maybe mal in 2015 is realistic,after he challenges barry,after mal gets the poops and leaves fed parl because abbott has the party over his knee.

    BTW who is barry anyway?
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  22. Oh heavens sake – David Campbell’s disgraceful attack under parliamentary priviledge on the working journalists from the SMH (he accused them of hacking the Bang the Table site, and likened it to stealing from an office) which was based on information provided to him by Labor ex-hacks who run the Bang the Table company website, turns out to be wrong.

    Damn waste of police resources – being called into investigate the “theft”.

    Labor’s ex-hacks have been sacked.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/24/2829344.htm

  23. After todays performance in the bear-pit, KK will be lucky to last past April 2010. By then the hard heads will realise she ain’t gunna save any furniture – and the nervous one’s facing the chop will fall into line behind Frank Sartor. If that happens we may see a competitive election in 2011.

  24. GG – #34

    [ Why do you hate successful women?]

    Because they are not into Bukkake ๐Ÿ˜† No – just kidding.

    I don’t. Name one successful woman I hate.

    If you were referring to KK – because it followed on from my previous post (but she is NOT successful) I can tell you why I dislike her:-
    1. She is a god-botherer.
    2. She as responsible for attempting to silence criticism of the Pope by introducing anti-annoying regulations during the Popes visit (fortunately struck down by the Federal Court).
    3. She was responsible for overseeing the waste of NSW taxpayers money in sponsoring the Pope’s visit to Sydney.
    4. She claims there is no sexism in the NSW parliament. However, she uses sexism as a weapon for her own ends – batting her eyelids at older men who come from a different generation and are likely to fall for such sexist behaviour. She says that the only reason women wear pantsuits in parliament is because their stockings have laddered, not because they don’t wish to be stared at by men as sexual objects (have you ever heard of such a crazy thing).
    5. She was involved in a round robin of political donations which still have not been declared to the SEC.
    6. She is a puppet of Joe and Eddie.

  25. Greensborough Growler.

    If by bigot you mean I dislike god-botherers and believe they are a danger to society, and particularly innocent young children and the feeble minded, then yes I am a bigot.

    I am not a misogynist. Far from it. Indeed, my favourite politician is Clover Moore. She is wonderful. She also happens to be a female.

  26. PY,

    God botherers is just your weasel words for hating anyone who is religious. You’re gonna have a lot of fun in life hating.

    You only like Clover because she’s overtly gay friendly. (The first sign that a politician is about to screw you over comrade).

  27. Plus she kept Labor out of Town Hall for 6 years now – and continuing. Labor representation on the council dropped from 3 to just 1 in 2008. So I can understand why you make up lies about her.

    Geez – wouldn’t Labor love to get their hands on the developer donations they could get if they had their hands controlling Town Hall.

    So keep on spreading rumours – keep on hating. The people are awake up to Labor…..they aren’t going anywhere fast except backwards.

  28. Looks like Labor has a penchant for picking on woman.

    [ THE state MP accused of assaulting a property executive was allegedly also physically restrained by colleagues during an incident with a female Labor MP.
    Police yesterday served a notice to Upper House Labor MP Ian West to appear in Burwood Court on April 13 on an assault charge. Police also served the former union official with an interim personal violence order.

    As the court order was served fresh allegations emerged about Mr West’s behaviour yesterday.

    He was alleged to have lunged at fellow Labor MP and Deputy NSW Speaker Tanya Gadiel following a heated exchange at the end of a caucus meeting about power privatisation in May 2008.

    Ms Gadiel yesterday confirmed the incident. Her colleagues reported it to the Labor Party head office at the time but no action was taken.
    ]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/mp-ian-west-muscled-up-to-me-too-says-nsw-speaker-tanya-gadiel/story-0-1225834057384

  29. Campbell’s Calamity

    It seems that David Campbell’s ill-informed, false and cowardly attack on working journalists was approved by the Premier. So this isn’t just a ministerial stuff-up, but a stuff-up sanctioned by the very top of the Labor tree. The question is – Will KK last beyond April 2010, or will the Labor Party ditch her for a safer pair of hands.

    [ Mr Campbell’s original statement to Parliament was approved by the Premier’s office. Kristina Keneally’s chief of staff is Walt Secord,…..
    A spokesman for Mrs Keneally said last night the Premier’s office and the Transport Minister ‘s office were involved in preparing the answer given in Parliament on Tuesday.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/im-sorry-ministers-mea-culpa-20100224-p3ls.html

    See also- http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/amateur-hour-for-hackedoff-pollies-20100224-p3mi.html

  30. I said in an earlier post that KK’s performance in parliament, particularly in relation to economic and budgetary issues was lack lustre and unconvincing.

    It seems however, it is not just the performance that is lacking, but the detailed content of government proposals are missing.

    In relation to the “transport blueprint” the opposition claims:-

    Labor has “ only set aside $700 million during the next 10 years for construction of both the north-west rail link and the Chatswood to St Leonards quadruplication. That is barely 10 per cent of the cost of those projects.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/it-doesnt-add-up-blueprint-blooper-reveals-shortfall-20100224-p3lu.html

  31. So the Green vote went down 5%, ALP up 3% and Liberal was unchanged

    And the 2PP went down 2%

    Someone had some fun with the maths… I really cannot see 40% of those Green vote lost was preferencing the Liberal. There is really no change to the 2PP

  32. O’Farrell: Premier, what do you think of the finances of the state

    KKK: bat, bat, bat, weelll piece

    I cannot wait for the premier debate, hope you Laborites are enjoying KKK’s honeymoon period

  33. Good to see the usual trolls out and about.

    KK seems to be going along quite well, though the shine seems to be more on brand Keneally than brand NSW ALP, which isn’t entirely unexpected. Regardless of the smear, KK is clearly intelligent and quick to get across a brief, on top of being likeable and a good communicator. She is certainly the best performer post-Carr.

    Peter Young, pointing to opposition quotes and links that don’t support your claims is just lazy. And do you really think that Sartor would make people listen?

  34. Dovif, I was clearly referring to how KK’s performance as Premier, not how the polls are going. The polls, cleary, are a disaster for the Government.

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