Essential Research: 54-46

In lieu of anything from Newspoll or Nielsen, this week’s very interesting Essential Research survey gets its own thread. It finds Labor at what might be an all-time low for this agency, which opened for business after the 2007 election and has traditionally provided Labor with friendly results. Labor nonetheless retains a commanding 54-46 lead, down from 55-45 last week. Kevin Rudd also has his weakest personal ratings to date, his approval down three to 52 per cent and disapproval up four to 37 per cent. Tony Abbott by contrast is up a hearty eight points to 45 per cent on approval, but down only one on disapproval to 36 per cent. The likely headline-grabber of the survey is a question on the performance of Peter Garrett who gets a resounding thumbs-down with 28 per cent approval and 56 per cent disapproval. Better news for Labor on an insightful question as to whether respondents expect a Tony Abbott government would reintroduce parts of WorkChoices: 57 per cent say likely and 23 per cent say unlikely, with large majorities across supporters of all parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,963 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46”

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  2. if you click back to the articles on the drum you will see how slow they are putting up the comments and then all of sudden it will be o this has closed for the day.
    And then they i vite you to go elsewhere to comment it is neally impossible to do that
    has any one tried

    but as i said i would love for william to be able to tell us just what is the percentage of people who actully comment on anything on the net it would be hard as we dont know what percentage keep there on line names the same.

    So william when you have a spare moment some time it would make a great story to know this and then guess what i feel the numbers may be only 10 percent so if that the case why bother

  3. my say

    TP is Thomas Paine who keeps us posted on all the global financial news. Most from Europe and the USA has been bad lately.
    Here in Aust we are the shining light thanks to Rudd, Swan etc and their excellent management through the GFC

  4. Gaffhook, Good luck getting them to publish it. I submitted a couple of comments for inclusion at the bottom of the Kelly ‘piece’ today which have not been posted as yet. Though a quick glance shows there is no shortage of toxic right-wing hate-posts being put up by the moderator/s.

    Makes you wonder what’s going on at the ABC. Are the moderator/s biased AS WELL AS the opinion writers? Just how deep does the rot go?

    I’m beginning to loathe the toxic right wing toilet bowl that their ABC is becoming. Breaks my heart because some time ago you wouldn’t have found a more passionate, outspoken advocate of public broadcasting than myself.

    I’m fearful for the future if the Liberals get in and have the massive propaganda tool of the ABC (and incidentally News Ltd) at their disposal. They will stack the Board even more obscenely. They will require favourable editorial treatment along the lines of what they are now regularly served even from Opposition. Give a right-wing extremist regime like the Liberals that sort of power over what the public get to see and hear … and Fascism looms, without the shadow of a doubt.

  5. Polyquats,

    [Tasmanian Greens want chemical free water. No chlorine? Maybe they better aim for pathogen free water first.]

    Don’t tell ’em water is really di-hydrogen oxide or they’ll stop drinking the stuff!

  6. [if you click back to the articles on the drum you will see how slow they are putting up the comments]

    Yes, I posted 3 and only 1 managed to make it. They are clearly being selective, and none of the posts contained anything that would warrant exclusion. The ABC filtering comments… some might call that bias?

  8. Polyquats @ 2783
    [Tasmanian Greens want chemical free water. No chlorine? Maybe they better aim for pathogen free water first.]
    Chlorine? Your linked article doesn’t mention chlorine. The triazines are are herbicides that a scientific report says is likely contaminating Tassie’s water:
    [Tasmania is reviewing regulation of the triazine chemicals atrazine and simazine, after a state-commissioned report revealed that they remain in the environment for up to three times longer in cool-climate regions.
    The report, revealed in The Australian this month, concluded that, because of triazine chemicals’ longer half-life in cool conditions, ability to leach into soils and widespread use, they represented “the most significant environmental risk for water quality”.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/triazine-health-tests-flawed/story-e6frg6ox-1225700370881

    Action sounds reasonable to me. Especially when you look at the potential effect on those who would drink water:
    [Acute Health Effects: EPA has found atrazine to potentially cause a variety of acute health effects from acute exposures at levels above the MCL. These effects include: congestion of heart, lungs and kidneys; hypotension; antidiuresis; muscle spasms; weight loss; adrenal degeneration.
    Chronic Health Effects: Atrazine has the potential to cause weight loss, cardiovascular damage, retinal and some muscle degeneration, and mammary tumors from a lifetime exposure at levels above the MCL.]
    *MCL – maximum safe contaminant level.
    http://www.water-research.net/atrazine.htm

    Simazine is no better, per EPA Fact Sheet :
    http://www.epa.gov/ogwdw000/pdfs/factsheets/soc/tech/simazine.pdf

    THey also cause carnage to life in the rivers when leached into them.

    The worry is that the government and the Libs would appear to be comfortable with the chemicals, which are widely used in Tassie, until shown proof that people are getting sick from them. The traditional pro-business model governments take these days.

    Given the known toxic effects of the chemicals, and that the EU banned triazines in 2004 becasue of this, then a ban seems like a great idea to me, as opposed to the Tasmanian Health Minister who thinks that a ban should happen AFTER proof of damage to humans in Tasmania, despite the government’s own report ringing alarm bells. What a dope:
    http://www.media.tas.gov.au/print.php?id=28242

  9. [The ABC filtering comments, some might call that bias]

    You can’t really say without knowing the number of ‘right wing’ comments they also do not publish. Perhaps someone can lobby a parliamentarian to ask the ABC some questions on the ABC’s comment filtering process or attempt to get a log of comments filtered out.

  12. WorkChoices (besides an attack on the living standards of employees) an attempt to kill off unions, thus strangling the Labor Party. It is the tool by which they plan to work towards a virtual one-party ‘democracy’.

  17. [Their ABC being careful to put the words “Rudd” and “deaths” in the same headline.]

    And you would rephrase that headline how exactly?

  22. Cuppa: it would appear The Drum are using the same tactics as News ltd blogs seem to use: prioritise inflammatory or hysterical comments over rational and reasoned ones so that creates a flood of hits as people try to comment to refute. I’ve often wondered if you post a right wing inflammatory comment under the same screen name under which sensible comment were refused publication, whether it would get up?

  23. Do we get a Morgan phone poll this week? They are usually around the 53/47 compared to Face to face which usually have a 10% margain.

    Last week was FtoF, not sure if the alternate them.

  24. [Prime Minister not briefed on insulation deaths]

    Yes, but it’s also true that he didn’t ask to be briefed. Why should one be chosen over the other?

    [can you see the campaign underway by the ABC to destroy this government?]

    No, but I do see a race to the bottom to compete with the tabloid press in terms of quality reporting. I also think the choice of Chris Uhlmann to replace Jim Middleton was a bad one.

  26. [Feeling better now, are we? Finished your raging about the Government? Or does there yet remain some spleen unvented about “insulation debacles”, “bungling Ministers” and of course those four deaths that you couldn’t care less about but that provide such a handy hook for efforts to bring our highhanded, manipulative and arrogant Prime Minister down a notch or two?

    We’ve now advanced well into “Having It Both Ways” territory. The story has switched to companies and workers displaced by the decision to overhaul the program. Having howled for the program to be shut down, the media and the Opposition can now decry the consequences of, um, shutting it down. On Newcastle radio this morning I was asked about Bob Baldwin criticising the Government for closing the program and putting people out of work. I had to point out that if Baldwin and his Coalition mates had had their way, no company would ever have employed anyone in the first place because the program would never have existed.

    Nor, for that matter, would the standards and accreditation regime now in place that has made the insulation industry far safer than it used to be. Although I suspect it won’t be that long before the media starts running stories about how the new, heavy-handed regulations on insulation installation are forcing ordinary Aussies out of their jobs.]

    I love Bernard Keane – there I’ve said it! Anyone who puts that pompous git Baldwin in his proper place gets my devotion. I aim to help get rid of the small margin he has.

  27. [Yes, but it’s also true that he didn’t ask to be briefed. Why should one be chosen over the other?]

    Ltep, because the responsible minister is the one to be briefed.

    [No, but I do see a race to the bottom to compete with the tabloid press in terms of quality reporting. I also think the choice of Chris Uhlmann to replace Jim Middleton was a bad one.]

    I agree with you on these points. It may come from Mark Scott’s media background.

  28. Diogenes
    Posted Friday, February 26, 2010 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    “For a topic that evidently was a dead parrot last night, there seems to be a lot of posts on insulation today.”

    only exposing & destroyin th sleezy buzzards , eating off th dead parrott ,

    those accusing direct ort by nuanse Garrett responsible for th 4 deaths

  29. Further to 2826 Bernard finishes

    [The media’s pursuit of this issue has been more about payback for Rudd than about the facts, which have been studiously ignored in a welter of critical adjectives and blithe assertions of incompetence and guilt. And there’s more than a little justice in this. Rudd and his team have taken media manipulation to a higher level than ever before seen in Australian politics, and upset a very great many journalists in the process. That they’ve spent the past fortnight trying to cope with the media manipulating them is hardly unjust. What goes around comes around, and they’ve discovered they have no goodwill to fall back on in the gallery. No one is feeling a shred of sympathy for Rudd and nor should they.

    Question is, has this episode exhausted the media’s long-frustrated desire to give Rudd a shellacking, or is it the start of more permanent phase of press hostility?]

    Come on BB – answer Bernard’s last question for us.

  31. [Cuppa: it would appear The Drum are using the same tactics as News ltd blogs seem to use: prioritise inflammatory or hysterical comments over rational and reasoned ones so that creates a flood of hits as people try to comment to refute. ]

    That sounds quite plausible, Confessions. If so, it is an abuse of editorial power, setting out to provoke and inflame members of the audience (who pay for the bloody thing) – but for what ends. It doesn’t make sense from a public broadcaster’s standpoint. Who do they think they’re competing with? They have no Charter brief to be compete for ratings. Perhaps they can see privatisation on the horizon, or the likelihood of being forced to accept advertising, so are gearing up their market ‘competitiveness’ before the event. That might explain the dumbed-down tabloidisation that’s becoming more and more evident.

  32. And for a reality check on what the Drum *is* letting through, the series of articles by Clive Hamilton have been infested by some of the most hate-filled comments I’ve seen. One commenter today calls him a megalomaniacal moonbat. Do people have no shame?

  34. jv@2783
    I was referring to this bit “…the Greens plans to deliver chemical free drinking water to Tasmanians…”
    The treatment of water with the chemical chlorine is essential to providing safe drinking water. If the Greens want to deliver chemical free water (if such a thing exists), they better have an alternative plan for disinfection of drinking water. We’d all love to know what it is, because an alternative to chlorination would be welcomed by the water industry.
    Tassie water is also fluoridated, so does the green’s plan for chemical free water also include an end to fluoridation?
    I must admit that I find the aerial spraying of eucalypt plantations with triazines a bit surprising, and I think a review of that practice may be in order. But the risk to human health and the environment from triazine use in Australia has been done and redone, and until there is new evidence, there isn’t going to be any change in their regulatory status.

  35. [Rudd and his team have taken media manipulation to a higher level than ever before seen in Australian politics]

    How? When? Who? Examples?

  36. [For a topic that evidently was a dead parrot last night, there seems to be a lot of posts on insulation today.]
    A lot? A few, but then we need to look into what the posters are saying to ascertain whether it still has legs or not. It’s gorn.

  37. [Rudd and his team have taken media manipulation to a higher level than ever before seen in Australian politics]
    Well, they are doing a piss poor job of it because the media want him gone.

  38. [Further US research on pollutant chemical atrazine reported this month. ]
    Concentrations of triazines, particularly atrazine, in the US regularly exceed guideline values. That isn’t an issue in Australia.

  39. …or is it the start of more permanent phase of press hostility?

    Come on BB – answer Bernard’s last question for us.

    ______________
    I’ll answer it for him. Yes

  40. [Rudd and his team have taken media manipulation to a higher level than ever before seen in Australian politics]

    Apparently by not leaking anything to them…

  41. Re. What earlier posters were saying about Harvey Norman (sorry this is another of those loooong mostly informative blog topics on this site and I’ve only just caught up – I really must get some new specs).

    What the ads also don’t yell at you is that GE apparently charge a monthly fee even if you make payments before the xxx months are up and that many people are caught in the hype that “I can pay that amount off before then” but are usually left with a pretty hefty debt at the end of the prescribed period (human nature and other expenses being what they are) and end up paying a fortune in interest to GE. I’d never shop there in a pink fit. Domanyne are much the same!

    Also someone mentioned an article by Miranda Devine and her bile about the PM. I posted a response to the relevant site but I doubt if it will be published – probably too near the truth for the poor dear. Didn’t bother re article from Grattan – she has lost it I think and probably doesn’t deign to read comments (do any of them, I wonder?)

    IMHO I thought the PM did really well on 7.30 Report last night. Kerry was quite belligerent and tried to talk over his responses but Rudd kept his cool. It was also a courageous move and one that Howard would never have done, given his propensity never to apologise for anything thanks to his “black arm band” view of history.

  42. Media cry babies 😛
    as for [or is it the start of more permanent phase of press hostility]
    who gives a shite, they have been going their hardest for the last 3 years, what brilliant tactics to bring down Rudd have the wangkers got left?

  43. [Hi there Finns – What’s going on in the world of the sea creatures?]

    Amigo, my other alter ego has taken over my life at the moment. At least i dont go around killing my trainer, unlike iDIOt:

    [(CNN) — Killer whales can weigh up to 22,000 pounds, and may be as long as 32 feet, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They often travel in groups of up to 50, being highly social.

    Confining such an enormous animal in an aquarium tank leads the animal to display neurotic behavior, experts say.

    “They get very stressed out,” marine biologist Nancy Black of Monterey Bay Whale Watch said on CNN’s “Larry King Live.”

    SeaWorld whale trainer Dawn Brancheau, 40, died Wednesday from “multiple traumatic injuries and drowning” after a whale called Tilikum grabbed her ponytail and pulled her underwater at Shamu Stadium, the Orange County Sheriff’s office said Thursday.]

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/02/25/whales.seaworld.death/?hpt=T2

    We all know iDIOt gets a bit neurotic most of the time 😛 , he’s been caged up in Broken Hill for too long 👿

  44. [Rudd and his team have taken media manipulation to a higher level than ever before seen in Australian politics]

    Whoever wrote that hasn’t visited SA for the last 8 years. There is no comparison between Rann and Rudd in terms of media manipulation.

  48. [Whoever wrote that hasn’t visited SA for the last 8 years. There is no comparison between Rann and Rudd in terms of media manipulation.]
    Speaking of which Dio is a Lib govt there on the cards?

  49. Polyquats
    [Concentrations of triazines, particularly atrazine, in the US regularly exceed guideline values. That isn’t an issue in Australia.]
    How can you be sure? It’s a big assumption, given the state report as to new concerns on the half-life, and the unsatisfactory testing regime in Tasmania

  50. ‘board@your.abc.net.au’ write to them being polite which we always are
    in enough people wrote they may take a look at it after all when we are returned to gov. they will have no one writing there at all why would we bother till next time around.

    but still waiting for William to tell us if he would know if there is any stats on the percentage of Australian who actually look read or write on the abc on line
    from anecdotal evidence not many. as I said i have mentioned to 5 people to day
    in their 30′ to 50 ‘s and no one had heard of it.

    So it may be silly people like us and just poitician staffers and their families and all their workers well any way on the liberal side and if thats so they are just writing to the converted which mean they will convernt NO ONE>
    and after the election we will be able to work that one out because the letters will fall to zero. And the abc may go back to good article we use to expect from your abc
    now there abc

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