Essential Research: 54-46

In lieu of anything from Newspoll or Nielsen, this week’s very interesting Essential Research survey gets its own thread. It finds Labor at what might be an all-time low for this agency, which opened for business after the 2007 election and has traditionally provided Labor with friendly results. Labor nonetheless retains a commanding 54-46 lead, down from 55-45 last week. Kevin Rudd also has his weakest personal ratings to date, his approval down three to 52 per cent and disapproval up four to 37 per cent. Tony Abbott by contrast is up a hearty eight points to 45 per cent on approval, but down only one on disapproval to 36 per cent. The likely headline-grabber of the survey is a question on the performance of Peter Garrett who gets a resounding thumbs-down with 28 per cent approval and 56 per cent disapproval. Better news for Labor on an insightful question as to whether respondents expect a Tony Abbott government would reintroduce parts of WorkChoices: 57 per cent say likely and 23 per cent say unlikely, with large majorities across supporters of all parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,963 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. William Thus Proclaimed:

    [The likely headline-grabber of the survey is a question on the performance of Peter Garrett who gets a resounding thumbs-down with 28 per cent approval and 56 per cent disapproval. ]

    and the only time Essential will be reported by the Meeja.

  2. [Better news for Labor on an insightful question as to whether respondents expect a Tony Abbott government would reintroduce parts of WorkChoices]
    It would’ve been more insightful if they asked a follow up question, something like: “Do you approve of the reintroduction of any parts of WorkChoices?”

    Obviously many Liberal voters would WANT a future Liberal government to revert back to WorkChoices, either in whole or in part.

  3. [Good result for the Liberals.]
    Yes I agree. If it was a uniform swing the Liberals would lose another 9 seats:
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=1.3&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

    One of those seats would be Sturt, which would be really good for the Liberals, because it is a waste having a career hack called Christopher Pyne, who has never had a job outside of politics, currently wasting what should be an very safe seat.

  4. Generic Person@4

    No 3
    The abolition of unfair dismissal laws would be a start.

    Well you’ll have no issue when the Electorate do that to Messers Abbott and his band of Selective Socialists then ? 🙂

  5. [The abolition of unfair dismissal laws would be a start.]
    This would mean going FURTHER than WorkChoices. There is no way that any government would be elected on such a platform.

  6. [It’s hot… I needed something refreshing… beers in the fridge… you do the maths]

    I reckon you’re on the dole.

    You shouldn’t be spending my hard dollars (paid as tax) on getting pissed in the middle of the afternoon when the workers of the nation are still hard at toiling away.

  7. Go Poss:

    Pollytics

    Abbott and Hunt are effectively saying small business *cannot* be trusted to deliver a product or service without massive intervention. half a minute ago from TweetDeck

  8. Well it makes perfect sense. The Liberals climate change policy is massive direct action, AKA socialism. The Liberals have lost all faith in private enterprise and now think governments can solve everything.

  9. No 7

    Usual idiocy from you Showy. Compared to the silly heights of 61-39 of the past, the improvement in the polls is good.

  10. [The likely headline-grabber of the survey is a question on the performance of Peter Garrett who gets a resounding thumbs-down with 28 per cent approval and 56 per cent disapproval.]

    Looks like the voters haven’t broken out the champagne to rejoice in Rudd and Garrett’s tactical victory over the Libs.

    Vox populi, vox dei.

  11. For those with Sly News:

    SkyNewsAust

    Watch a replay of the Senate Committee Inquiry on the Home Insulation Program – live on Sky News Multiview, just press ‘red’ on your remote. half a minute ago from TweetDeck

  12. Yes, a fantastic result for the Liberals – they are on track to be the first Opposition in federal history to lose seats to a first-term federal government. This must really have Kevin Rudd worried.

  13. [The likely headline-grabber of the survey is a question on the performance of Peter Garrett who gets a resounding thumbs-down with 28 per cent approval and 56 per cent disapproval.]

    The Essential guy on Sly News said Garrett’s approval has never been high.

  14. 50% outright don’t believe him, and 28% don’t know!

    If i wanted to spin that i’d say that 78% of respondents obviously don’t trust what he says when he makes a definitive statement that WorkChoices is dead.

    In terms of the “who do you trust” debate that is always part of an election campaign this is an awful result for the Fiberals. the strength of the result on party lines is a bad indicator for them. Only 50% of liberal voters believe him??

  15. [pUsual idiocy from you Showy. Compared to the silly heights of 61-39 of the past, the improvement in the polls is good.]
    LOL! It seems you can’t count. 54/46 is a SWING to Labor compared to 2007.

    If you have to console yourself with a 54/46 landslide to Labor, then that’s fine with me. You’d have to go back to Curtin’s 1943 landslide for a result better for Labor.

  16. [Obviously many Liberal voters would WANT a future Liberal government to revert back to WorkChoices, either in whole or in part.]

    The Liberal Party has no other reason for existing other than to screw workers down and destroy their unions.

  17. From Antony’s Calculator ex Shows On:

    CoalitionSeat New margin
    Cowan (WA) LIB 0.0003%

    Luke Simpkin should REALLY be worried.

  18. Ex Poss:

    Pollytics

    What really gets me about this insulation scheme is what the government allegedly failed at – installers reading instructions!! half a minute ago from TweetDeck

  19. No 23

    ShowsOn, you are commenting in a vacuum. My comments are clearly in the context of an anticipated gradual improvement in the polls in favour of the Liberals. Considering the polls have sat in virtual abeyance at 58-42/59-41/61-39 since 2007, the Liberals are making some ground.

    In any event, the only reliable poll is election day.

  20. [Senator mauled following dog fight ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/senator-mauled-following-dog-fight/story-fn3dxity-1225833132583

    How about this for a piece of OO crapolla.

    The Lib has the Rottweiler of course and the neighbour’s dog dies BUT the Lib IS a dog lover and feels for her neighbour.

    Kroger says she looks “a bit like an Egyptian mummy”, wearing a bathrobe, nursing stitches to the crushed little finger and thumb on her left hand and stitches to her right index finger.”

    Poor bugger.

  21. [My comments are clearly in the context of an anticipated gradual improvement in the polls in favour of the Liberals. ]

    Ahh the narrowing – that worked well last time.

  22. No 10

    Don’t you find it silly that a worker who was “justly and reasonably dismissed” is still found to have been harshly dismissed, despite breaking safety regulations, despite abusing his employer; and reinstated with $16,000 compensation?

    This is what the Labor party stands for: unsackable workers.

  23. Love the Marsupial’s Twitter work:

    Pollytics

    Really – “Peter Garrett should resign because he couldn’t force some installers read instructions”? Is that what we have devolved to? 1 minute ago from TweetDeck

  24. 33

    Try talking to the 3 sacked workers at my place of employment last week.

    There I’ve provided one example and so have you.

    Your turn.

  25. [Don’t you find it silly that a worker who was “justly and reasonably dismissed” is still found to have been harshly dismissed, despite breaking safety regulations, despite abusing his employer; and reinstated with $16,000 compensation?]

    Geez GP if they had scribbled a written warning on a bit of paper he would be gone. Surely companies know how to sack people?

  26. [My comments are clearly in the context of an anticipated gradual improvement in the polls in favour of the Liberals. ]
    LOL! Oh, how silly of me. I forgot that you were using this poll to measure what may or may not happen in the future. Which of course is exactly how not to read opinion polls.
    [Considering the polls have sat in virtual abeyance at 58-42/59-41/61-39 since 2007, the Liberals are making some ground.]
    Yes, and as we have established, 54/46 would be a landslide to Labor, seeing them pick up at least 9 seats, and would be the first time a first term opposition has lost seats.

    We all appreciate the fact that you are looking forward to a Labor landslide.

    Maybe after that happens the Liberals will realise that socialism isn’t exactly a good policy platform.

  27. No 36

    According to FWA, if those workers are middle aged, have a mortgage and family and they are undereducated, they have been harshly dismissed.

  28. Well TTH i suppose you also disbelieve Newspoll, since that is run by the Australian and they show a pretty strong pro Lib bias in their normal activities??

  29. [This is what the Labor party stands for: unsackable workers.]
    Please quote me the section of the Fair Work Act that says workers can never be sacked.

  30. Hell, GP is right. This is a good poll for the Libs. Anything less than the highest winning margin at an election since 1983 (when I first started voting) is not a good result for Labor in my opinion.

    The reasons the Liberals are polling better at the moment is because of the insulation scheme disaster and the BLOODY Greens. The CPRS is losing support with the electorate. Labor should make it clear to the voters that it is the Greens with the loony radical climate change policies, to bring themselves back to the centre in the eyes of the voters.

  31. [According to FWA, if those workers are middle aged, have a mortgage and family and they are undereducated, they have been harshly dismissed.]

    And they said if he had been warned that his actions would result in his sacking – he would have been sacked. Telling Fibs again.

  32. What do the Liberals stand for? Lately it seems to be the death penalty, increased government regulation of small business and government handouts to industry. Maybe their ‘research’ tells them these are election winners.

  33. Centre, i’m going to wait for a while and see what happens with the CPRS before i get too dark on the Greens. I still have hopes that there will be some deal done that will put a price on carbon pollution and get through the senate.

    That would be a good thing in general, and a REALLY good thing in terms of knocking the wheels off little Tony’s cart prior to the election.

  34. [And Drum Roll… Essential Research is run for and paid by….

    Dum Dum Dum…. The Unions!]

    TTH, your advanced maths assignment for this week: last weeks poll was 55 – 45, now this week it is 54 – 46. Which of the two polls is showing the greater difference?

    Your advanced logic assignment for this week: if it was determined that this week is closer than the previous week’s (not saying that it is) and it is a poll commissioned by the unions and if it is showing a narrowing (not saying that it is) than wouldn’t it be reasonable to say it is reliable because it is not a result that the unions would favour?

  35. Generic Person@47

    No 43

    He was warned verbally, several times. Apparently the worker can’t understand spoken English either.

    And why didn’t the Employer have an Interpreter present when those warnings were given ?

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