Advertiser: 50.5-49.5 to Maywald in Chaffey

The Advertiser has published a poll of 571 respondents from the South Australian state seat of Chaffey, held by the state’s sole Nationals MP Karlene Maywald. It finds an effective dead heat in two-party terms between Maywald and Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone, with the former on 50.5 per cent. Primary vote figures after distribution of the undecided are 40 per cent for Whetstone, 30 per cent for Maywald, 14 per cent for Labor, 11 per cent for Family First and 3 per cent for the Greens. The result at the election was 53.2 per cent for Maywald and 28.2 per cent for the Liberal candidate, resulting in a 17.2 per cent Nationals-versus-Liberals margin after preferences. The margin of error on the poll is around 4 per cent. The paper appears not to have repeated the mistake of its poll of the electorate in August 2008, when it merely asked respondents which party they would vote for without naming Maywald as an option. When asked who Maywald should support in the event of a minority government, 53 per cent said Liberal and 33 per cent Labor. Maywald has served as a minister in Mike Rann’s government since 2004, currently in the water security and River Murray portfolios. She has nonetheless maintained she would support a “conservative” government in office.

Please feel free to use this thread for general discussion of the South Australian election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

619 comments on “Advertiser: 50.5-49.5 to Maywald in Chaffey”

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  1. [PREMIER Mike Rann has ended the phony election campaign with a plea to South Australians not to “risk” returning the state to its “rust-bucket” status of a decade ago]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/premier-mike-rann-rules-out-toll-roads-in-exclusive-interview-with-adelaidenow/story-fn2sdwup-1225832202610

    You’ve got to be kidding me. They’ve actually published a Labor propaganda piece as opposed to a Liberal propaganda piece? This must be their fig-leaf prior to the campaign proper…

  2. [OPPOSITION Leader Isobel Redmond has been absent from party policy announcements since bungling the unveiling of a plan for the Southern Expressway this week.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/redmond-missing-in-action/story-fn2sdwup-1225832355995

    [TONY Abbott says in some cases execution is the only fitting sentence for mass murderers. ]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/abbott-says-death-may-suit-the-crime/story-e6frebcl-1225832360651

    Bizarre. Abbott is purposely polarising in an attempt to emulate Howard, whilst Redmond is a complete lightweight. Both party and media de ja vu?

    *exits left stage in complete disillusionment*

    (William, can you PLEASE stop the spell check advising of Australian spelling being incorrect over American spelling when it comes to z over s and other such instances… very disconcerting…)

  3. [William, can you PLEASE stop the spell check advising of Australian spelling being incorrect over American spelling when it comes to z over s and other such instances… very disconcerting…]

    Er … no.

  6. Atkinson to be A-G in next Rann Government

    Adelaide Now’s Greg Kelton has interviewed Premier Rann, and video of that interview is available on the Adelaide Now website .

    One question put to Rann was :
    Will you guarantee that Michael Atkinson will not be re-appointed Attorney General?” or similar words.

    Assuming the video contains the whole of the answer Rann provided, it is noted that such a simple question, which only required a “yes” or “no” answer, did not receive either answer. Instead Rann launched into lauding Atkinson as an outstanding Attorney General, in particular citing his introduction of legislation to increase penalties for crime and to clamp down on bikie gangs.

    What Rann did not say, was that the anti-bikie legislation drafted by Atkinson was found by the Courts to be invalid.

    Rann was asked another question on a different matter, and during the course of his answer said words along the lines:-
    we listened…. (like Michael Atkinson’s decision)….. in terms of internet sites

    What Rann did not say was that when Atkinson said he had listened and would exempt blogs etc from s.116 of the Electoral Act, he did NOT in fact act to do so. On 18 February Atkinson signed into law regulation 17 to the Act. That regulation only exempts discussion boards etc published by journals (newspapers, magazines and periodicals). It does not exempt internet sites which are published by other persons.

    In a news article, Adelaide Now has interpreted Rann’s answer in this way:-
    Rann……..STOOD by his embattled Attorney-General, Michael Atkinson, saying he would remain in Cabinet after the election.
    Premier Mike Rann rules out toll roads in exclusive interview with AdelaideNow

    The bottom line is:
    A vote for Labor is a vote for Atkinson as A-G

    You won’t get a Labor government with a different Attorney General.

  7. [Bob, I haven’t the faintest idea what you’re talking about.]

    Your spell check seems to think polarizing is correct and polarising is incorrect. This is not the first time where your spell check seems to think this Australian forum has a more correct spelling wen it uses z over s, and similar Americanisations (as opposed to AMERICANIZATIONS…)

  10. [Now you can feel my pain. As I said before, I just can’t vote for Atkinson continuing as AG.]

    But aren’t you electing your local MP and theoretically nothing more? 😛

    This is why I vote Green first.

  11. bob

    They need the message louder than that. They love getting Greens prefs.

    I hope the Libs make a big deal of how poor Rann’s judgement is by continuing to back Atkinson and ask us repeatedly how we can trust a Premier who would make such a terrible decision.

  12. [They need the message louder than that. They love getting Greens prefs. ]

    Not if they get the sort of kick in the guts that the Libs got at the hands of the Dems in 1997. There comes a point when a protest vote is no longer symbolic, but has major political ramifications.

  13. And if SA Labor has any sense left in it (which at this point I really don’t know), they are just managing the media and not doing a Howard by saying x will be dropped out of the ministry if re-elected. It’s a mug’s game, a lose-lose situation politically. If they have any sense left, they will get rid of him after the election. But this is a big big big big big x10000 big if.

  14. #59, #60, #61, #62 & #63.

    I have no comment (for legal reasons).

    Today is 20 February.

    Nah nah nah Michael Atkinson – because I am not making commentary on election issues I don’t have to state my name and address.

  15. Peter, I would’ve thought you would’ve been willing to make yourself a test case so you could expose the imperfectness of the law and regulation.

  16. Michael Atkinson, it is my democratic right to express displeasure with elements of your government, and in typing this, I am expressly doing so. I am not supplying my name nor my address.

    There you go PY.

  21. [ Peter, I would’ve thought you would’ve been willing to make yourself a test case so you could expose the imperfectness of the law and regulation.]

    That proposition is under consideration.

    There is no need to make a rash decision at this stage. There is 4 weeks of the election campaign to go. That is 28 days of opportunity to wilfully break the law.

    We will see what decision is best after I sleep on it – maybe for a couple of nights. Includng checking the maximum penalty for each infringement. I would expect nothing less than the maximum because:-
    a. The crime would have been committed wilfully, with full knowledge that it was against the law and in total disregard for the sanctity of the law.
    b. I would have no contrition.
    c. I would be likely to commit the crime again and again – and the penalty would not act as a deterent to me personally.

  22. Plus I want to check what happens in SA where a fine is not paid. In NSW for example, if you don’t pay a fine, after a lengthy bureaucratic process, you are jailed and cut the fine out at the rate of $50 per day. If there are say 10 fines, $50 per day comes off each seperate fine (that is a total of $500 per day). In other words you take the biggest unpaid fine and divide it by $50 – which gives the maximum number of days you spend banged up before being released.Well that’s how I understand it to work….I might be wrong.

  24. Wow, Isobel Redmond thinks the election is already in the bag:
    [Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond held her own press conference by the banks of the Torrens near the weir, naming trust, water security, health and education as key election issues.
    She forecast a ‘fourth quarter’ victory for the Opposition]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/a-tough-and-tight-state-election-race-ahead-rann-predicts/story-e6frea6u-1225832464358
    That’s a good enough reason to vote against her.

  25. [Your spell check seems to think polarizing is correct and polarising is incorrect.]

    I didn’t know I (by which I mean WordPress, the operation of which I have no particular insight upon) had a spell check. There certainly isn’t one when I type comments. Perhaps this is something to do with the browser you use.

  27. I drove past all those dippy corflutes today (incidentally the ALP machine was much more professional and had taken all the best spots before the lazy Libs got out of bed).

    Getting rid of them after this election is one thing I agree with Atkinson on. They are political graffiti. I hope Rudd follows suit.

  32. [ So who are you voting for Bob? ]

    A very good question.

    Bob raised the s,116 issue one day in a storm of anger (without which I guess many would not have been aware of it). Since then he has hardly mentioned it, and I was wondering whether the issue would have any bearing on his decision making.

  34. The issue about changes to the Electoral Act introduced by Michael Atkinson which made it an offence, inter alia, for a internet site to publish election issues comment after the writ issues (today) unless, inter alia, the commentators name and address was provided.

    [ This is NOT my name and address ]

  35. Well it was front page of The Advertiser and Adelaide now and received coverage on all the nightly news shows. So I don’t think it was simply Bob that brought it to everyone’s attention.

  38. In reply to Wakefiled @28. Mount Gambier will be an interesting contest.

    Labor candidate Viv Maher is a highly regarded social worker. She’s the wife of local city councillor and ALP sub-branch president Jim Maher. ALP staffer Kyam Maher is their son.

    The main Independent candidate, Don Pegler, is a farmer and Grant District Council mayor. He stood for Liberal pre-selection, but lost because headquarters bused in some delegates to tip the vote in Steve Perryman’s favor. Ironically, headquarters feared Perryman, the Mount Gambier City Council mayor, would stand as an independent if he wasn’t the Liberal candidate.

    The Liberal candidate from the last election, Peter Gandolfi, was seen at Pegler’s campaign launch.

    There is potentially a strong Labor vote in the town booths if you look at results from Barker at the last Federal poll. Mount Gambier has previously been an ALP seat (1958-75). The town has a significant population of timber workers and welfare recipients.

    The Family First candidate Henk Bruins is better than average and should increase their vote. He’s a prominent local businessman and property developer. His preferences will probably go to Pegler.

    The Greens candidate is Donella Peters, who was their campaign manager for the Mayo byelection in 2008.

    I consider Perryman slightly ahead at this stage, simply because I think Pegler will struggle to pass Labor before the final distribution of preferences. If Labor had played dead, like they have in neighboring MacKillop, it would be a different story.

    It’s certainly a seat to watch.

  39. MG – actually, the ALP candidate for Barker at the last election, Karen Lock, is Viv Maher’s daughter.

    The family has a long and distinguished history, not only in SA Labor politics, but also in terms of the work they do in the wider community.

    If she does poll well, don’t be surprised to see Labor preferences help get Perryman over the line.

  40. Michael Gorey

    How is the Mt Gambier Hospital doing? A few years back it was a basket-case of infighting, resignations and lurched from crisis to crisis. I haven’t heard abut it for a while and I’m assuming no news is good news.

  41. chinda63 @89. Agree, but it won’t be Labor preferences that get Perryman over the line. If Maher does well, Pegler will languish in third spot and his preferences (even with a split ticket) will elect Perryman. If Labor comes third, Pegler will win. That’s the dilemma for the ALP and Pegler.

    Diogenes @90. There are still plenty of problems at the hospital, especially to do with extended waiting times for emergency care and the lack of mental health services. But things aren’t as bad as they were a few years ago in a management sense, as far as I can tell.

  42. [especially to do with extended waiting times for emergency care and the lack of mental health services.]

    I think that would apply to almost every hospital nowadays.

  43. Sorry, MG, that was what I meant! Just embarrasingly got the names of the Liberal & Independent candidates mixed up.

    William – both the ALP and the Liberal Party have all their candidate details, including photos and bios, up on their websites now. Not sure about the minor parties, but at least you can now update the SA Election section of this site in terms of the 2 majors.

  44. Diogenes @92 There are no inpatient mental health services at all, which is probably unusual for a region this remote and with a relatively high population. Labor has promised some, but detail is scarce.

    Mount Gambier often misses out because of its border location. The population catchment (if you add Victorian towns within 120km) is significant.

    State planners don’t take the border population catchment into account, of course.

  45. MG

    I’m very surprised you don’t have any inpatient mental health services. I go to Broken Hill which is much smaller and doesn’t have the catchment area you have and even they have inpatient psychiatry.

  47. IMHO it is the possibility exists that all is not well in relation to the observance of conventions relating to caretaker status, non-politicisation by public servants, and particularly the DPP, arising out of a report in the Advertiser. What is also concerning, is that the breach of these conventions may have arisen from the SA A-G himself.

    On the very day that the writs for the election are issued, the SA Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Pallaras, QC, has {apparently) asked the A-G for a review of sentencing laws, particularly suspended sentences, saying that the law is too soft on criminals in this regard.

    The Advertiser report, makes it appear the DPP has made the call for the review – recently, if not on the Saturday. It quotes extensively statements of the DPP, and gives detailed examples. Thus, and it is not apparent on the face of the The Advertiser report:-
    a. The statements were made and the examples given, as a result of a detailed background briefing given by the DPP to The Advertiser – possibly on Saturday. If this was this case, IMHO the DPP has acted entirely inapropriately and not in accordance with normal conventions.
    b. The report is based on a detailed submission made by the DPP to the A-G, and someone in government has provided a copy of the submission to The Advertiser. If this is the case then the public are entitled to know:-
    1. Was a copy of the submission provided to The Advertiser with the knowledge and consent of the DPP.
    2. Who provided a copy of the submission to The Advertiser
    3. On what date the copy submission was provided to The Advertiser
    4. What is the date of the written submission and on what date was it delivered to the A-G.

    Without knowing the answers to those questions, it is difficult to judge the appropriateness of the behaviour of those behind The Advertiser report, written on the day of the issue of the writs. However, it seems to have a wiff of “totally inappropriate ” about it.
    The Advertiser, One chance, then jail, says South Australia’s DPP .

    [ This is NOT my name and address – and I refuse to provide those details in wilful defiance of s.116 of the Electoral Act, 1985 ]

  48. “Mr Rann, this takes the cake”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mr-rann-this-takes-the-cake/story-e6frea83-1225832579388

    [THERE they stood, robot-like, hanging off their leader’s every word. Four ministers, seemingly hand-picked and snappily dressed, in front of the SA and Australian flags.

    Before them, the political media, empty cake plates between them after some much-needed mollifying.

    It was a morning of formality, Premier Mike Rann making the required visit to Government House yesterday for the issuing of the writs to signal the official start of the state election campaign.

    Soon after, in bizarre scenes at a press conference in the secure confines of the State Administration Centre, ministers Kevin Foley and John Hill served up cakes, muffins and biscuits to journalists and TV crews as an apology for the short notice to be at Government House by 9am for picture opportunities.

    Government minders gave the media just half an hour’s notice by text message.

    It was a move clearly designed to avoid any appearance by Michelle Chantelois, who claims to have had an affair with Mr Rann.]

    Why does the ’tiser have it in for Rann so much?

  49. Bob = #98

    [ Why does the ’tiser have it in for Rann so much?]
    I have no idea, nor can I make any suggestions.

    The bit I loved best about that article:-
    After the sweet treats, the charm offensive continued. As Mr Rann rose to speak – Foley, Hill, Jane Lomax-Smith and Jay Weatherill formed a backdrop for the TV cameras, nodding and gazing so intently at Mr Rann as he spoke that they appeared programmed.
    The four are widely seen as Labor’s most likeable ministers, with plenty of public appeal. They painted a picture of a united, experienced team. A team to trust, perhaps.
    There was no sign of other senior ministers with arguably less charisma such as Attorney-General Michael Atkinson or Transport Minister Patrick Conlon.

    Despite Rann hailing Atkinson as an “outstanding Attorney- General”, I guess Atkinson will be kept well hidden thoughout the campaign.

    BOB – you would have to admit that Rann is the ultimate media performer – the epitome of FAKE.

    [[ This is NOT my name and address – and in wilful defiance of s.116 of the Electoral Act, 1985 I refuse to provide those details]

  50. [ Despite Rann hailing Atkinson as an “outstanding Attorney- General”, I guess Atkinson will be kept well hidden thoughout the campaign. ]

    Actually I wpuld go a little further…..Atkinson will likely be kept strictly under cover and in the dark … nudge, nudge, wink, wink….if you know what I mean…

    [ [ This is NOT my name and address – and in wilful defiance of s.116 of the Electoral Act, 1985 I refuse to provide those details
    ]

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