Newspoll: 56-44

Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,136 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. 2950

    The Greens get enough votes to get upper house seats in much of Australia and have chances and an actual seat lower houses in inner-city areas.

  2. Kieran Gilbert on “Agenda” did a fantastic impression of a Liberal MP when questioning Bowen. Boy, he did his best for Barnaby.

  3. Keep dreaming the dream Tom. Just don’t expect to wake up and find it’s become reality. The Greens will not win a lower house seat in any state, territory or federal election in your lifetime and I’m assuming you are a very young man.

  4. Spin it how ever you like Adam
    The facts are:-
    Labor——-chickened out
    Liberal——went backwards 4%
    The Greens –more than doubled thier vote to 26%

  7. [The Greens will not win a lower house seat in any state, territory or federal election in your lifetime and I’m assuming you are a very young man.]

    I don’t know that I’d go quite that far, Steve 🙂

  9. [The Greens will not win a lower house seat in any state, territory or federal election in your lifetime and I’m assuming you are a very young man.]

    They are only able to win By-elections where the ALP are having an occasional implosion, ie Fremantle & Cunningham, which usually revert to the ALP in a General Election.

    I see Marg needs a corporate account with a certain Glass repair firm 🙂

  10. Dear Mr. President, you have just lost another battle, your country is no longer the Greatest especially over something your country bowed to and worshiped.

    [SHANGHAI – CHINA has overtaken the US as the world’s biggest market for automobiles, the first time any other country has bought more vehicles than the nation that produced Henry Ford, the Cadillac and the minivan.

    Now that the Chinese buy more cars and trucks than Americans, the shift could produce ripples for the environment, gas prices and even the kinds of cars automakers design.

    More than 12.7 million cars and trucks will be sold in China this year, up 44 per cent from the previous year and surpassing the 10.3 million forecast in the US, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

    China has long been expected to overtake the US since its population of 1.3 billion is more than quadruple that of the United States. But the increase in sales happened much faster than anyone expected because of China’s tax cuts, its stimulus program and a depressed American market.

    Two years ago, J.D. Power predicted China would pass the US in 2025. Earlier this year, it forecast 2009 sales of just 9 million vehicles for China.

    After a sharp slowdown in auto sales late last year, the Chinese government cut taxes on small cars and spent US$730 million (S$1.02 billion) on subsidies to encourage sales of SUVs, pickups and minivans. A big stimulus program also boosted truck sales by pumping money into construction. — AP ]

  12. The Finnigans:
    I suspect if you look at the value, rather than the number of the total automobile sales the US still wins comfortably.

    Also, since when did the US worship China?

  14. [Why bother fighting with the greens when we have barnyard and people skills to fight with??]

    That’s no challenge.

    Listen to Adam he knows where the real challenge for the ALP is!!

  16. [I don’t know that I’d go quite that far, Steve]

    If a sitting Labor (or possibly sitting Liberal or sitting independent) candidate was exposed as a complete fraud in the middle of an election campaign (some really nasty stuff that can’t be brushed off) then a Green candidate MIGHT get up. But all things being reasonably equal then I’ll stick with my original comment. Green policies are simply too extreme to win over mainstream Australia. They are a one trick pony and Labor is threatening to knock them off that beast hence the NO vote in the senate.

  17. [Dear Mr. President, you have just lost another battle, your country is no longer the Greatest especially over something your country bowed to and worshiped.]
    Big deal, cars are so 20th century.

    Let’s see if Bolt’s minions publish my latest trolling effort:
    [Yeah. I was told by a friend that the Iranian Bureau of Meteorology and Ian Plimer made an documentary about the climate change hoax but then they wouldn’t show it because The Age stopped them from revealing that climate change isn’t real.]

  20. If thisOzPol Tragic
    Posted December 11, 2009 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    Can’t see this anywhere but Morgan’s site;

    Morgan poll ALP 53% maintain lead over L-NP 47%

    “A special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted over the last six nights (December 4-9, 2009) shows the ALP (53%, unchanged since December 2/3, 2009) maintaining its two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (47%, unchanged), but slightly increasing its primary vote (42%, up 1%) at the expense of the L-NP (41.5%, down 1.5%).”

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4450/ has been posted here, I’ve missed it (also posted on Possum)

  21. Marg, the Greens doubled their vote in the absence of a Labor candidate. And even then, they couldn’t capture the entire Labor vote. It’s an indication of nothing.

  22. [Green policies are simply too extreme to win over mainstream Australia.]

    That’s true, but there are some seats which are not really part of mainstream Australia, like Balmain. These are the upper income inner city areas where the Greens do best, and I expect they will be able to pick off one or two of these seats eventually.

  23. [This domain name expired on Dec 09 2009 01:39PM
    Click here to renew it.]

    I can access it – Firefox 3.5.5 Windows 7 Professional.

  25. 2959

    Cunningham had several times the very low surprise factor of Fremantle and it is certainly not a certainty to go back to the ALP next sate election. There is also a good chance of the Greens picking up Balmain in 2011 (they would have in 2007 if the Libs had directed preferences) and not a bad chance in Marrickville. The Greens also have real chances in Melbourne (state), Richmond and Brunswick in 2010 (the Melbourne (state) margin was only about 2% in 2006).

  28. [Tried with Firefox on my Mac, domain name expired. Odd!]

    And I did with IE8 64 Bit – works fine – might pay to clear your cache.

  29. [Marg, the Greens doubled their vote in the absence of a Labor candidate. And even then, they couldn’t capture the entire Labor vote. It’s an indication of nothing.]

    We know the Greens are good but to “capture the entire Labor vote” is an indication of spin.

  35. [We know the Greens are good but to “capture the entire Labor vote” is an indication of spin.]

    It’s not spin at all, it’s the basic fact about these by-elections, as Antony Green (a non-party observer) has also pointed out. Have a look at his analysis if you don’t want to believe us. The Greens did well in the wealthy booths, holding the 2007 Labor vote and taking some votes from the Liberals. But in the lower-income booths (which are far more representative of “mainstream Australia” than Toorak or Pymble), the Greens could not hold the 2007 Labor vote, let alone improve on it. Something like a third of Labor voters, given a choice between Liberal and Green, voted Liberal, or else DLP with preferences to Liberal, or else informal. Those are just facts, not spin.

  36. For the Lateline junkies:

    [KJBar

    Lateline tonight: Arbib vs Morrison vs Sales PLUS Stephen Long 1030pm less than a minute ago from web ]

  38. Spin it how ever you like Adam
    The facts are:-
    Labor——-chickened out
    Liberal——went backwards 4%
    The Greens –more than doubled thier vote to 26%

    At kindie i lerned to tell the truth

  40. [Nope. cleared cache, removed the LP cookies, domain expired. . .]

    Okay, left a message on Mark Bahnisch’s Facebook wall.

  41. 2985

    It is hardly news that two different parties have voting bases that have minorities that won`t vote for the other party in their favoured parties absence.

  42. [ The Greens will not win a lower house seat in any state, territory or federal election in your lifetime and I’m assuming you are a very young man. ]

    Line up now to collect mega-bucks on this wager.

    The Greens have already won lower house seats in the lifetime of anyone over the age of 8 years.

  43. [it’s the basic fact about these by-elections, as Antony Green (a non-party observer)]
    But Antony owns the Greens, that’s why they are named after him.

  45. [The Greens have already won lower house seats in the lifetime of anyone over the age of 8 years.]

    But have only lasted one Term 🙂

  46. Peter Young, you could say that what was meant was a general election and not a by-election.

    Someone should also add the precursor “under any state, territory or federal election in which the house is not elected on a proportional representational basis”.

  48. 2996

    Go to exclude the HAT and the ACTLA because they have Greens already (and have had for a long time already).

  50. Re LP” Like Frank C: Cleared cache, cleared all cookies. Still getting Larvatusprodeo.net which looks more like a hosting site “Liberal Blogs? Conservative blogs?” Gawd! Doesn’t sound like the real LP to me!. Can’t find any trace of the usual blog!

    My details: Mac Leopard 10.5.8. Updated a few days ago (?Java, I think)

    Also filtered bob 1234

    Am also getting a lot of BAD messages on Crikey, esp today. I also, just before started typing this, found I was logged out. No, I didn’t do it. More to the point, the site won’t let me – never has – so I usually have to quit Firefox to log out.

    Also didn’t split 2970 first line as it appears. Didn’t type “OzPollTragic” at all! Dinkum!

    This wouldn’t be Bob’s Revenge, would it?

    Tho I have been having troubke

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