Morgan: 58-42

The past fortnight’s face-to-face Morgan polling has Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 58-42. Labor is down three points on the primary vote to 47.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent and the Greens are up one to 9.5 per cent. Apart from that:

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the state of play after the redistribution proposal abolishing Laurie Ferguson’s Sydney seat of Reid:

There was a rumour he was eyeing Parramatta under a plan which would see the incumbent in that seat, Julie Owens, move to Greenway, a Liberal seat which is assuredly Labor thanks to the redistribution. For various reasons, that scenario is not going to fly. More solid is a plan, backed by Ferguson and his support group in the Left, for him to move to the western suburbs seat of Fowler. It is held by Julia Irwin but it is anticipated she will retire at the election. Irwin belongs to the Right but the Left controls the branches in Fowler and wants the seat back. Ferguson, however, faces resistance to getting any seat at all, and that includes from elements of his own faction. “How do you think we would look in terms of renewal?” said one powerbroker. Left kingmakers are leaning towards the Liverpool Mayor, Wendy Waller, for Fowler. The Right is pushing Ed Husic, who ran for Greenway in 2004 but was the victim of a race-hate letterbox campaign … Ultimately Rudd has the final say, a power the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, could only dream of given the looming preselection fights among NSW Liberals. But it is a power that needs to be used wisely, sparingly and sensitively. “Kevin should not be unfavourable to Laurie,” warned a Ferguson friend, claiming Ferguson had helped Rudd win the leadership.

• Very soon after the previous report appeared, it emerged the NSW Liberal Party was changing its rules to allow, as Imre Salusinszky of The Australian describes it, a three-quarter majority of the state executive to “rapidly endorse a candidate on the recommendation of the state director and with the go-ahead of the state president and the party’s state and federal parliamentary leaders”. The rules are ostensibly designed for by-elections or snap double dissolutions, but can essentially be used at the leaders’ pleasure. This places the party on a similar footing to Labor, whose national executive granted sweeping federal preselection powers to Kevin Rudd and five party powerbrokers earlier this year. The most obvious interpretation of the Liberal move is that it’s an attempt to stymie the influence of the hard right in party branches, and Salusinszky indeed reports the reform is expected to be opposed by “a large part of the Right faction”. However, the Labor parallel demonstrates it can equally be seen as part of a broader trend to centralisation necessitated by the ongoing decline in membership and resulting opportunities for branch-stacking.

• From the previously cited Phillip Coorey article, Nathan Rees’s chief-of-staff Graeme Wedderburn is said to be assured of a winnable position on the Senate ticket at the next election: second if Steve Hutchins retires, third at the expense of incumbent Michael Forshaw if he doesn’t. “Unless, of course, he can be persuaded to enter state politics, which is another option being floated.”

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald (again) notes that South Australian Senator Cory Bernardi is causing angst by agreeing to appear at a hard-right fundraiser in Cook, where federal member Scott Morrison continues to battle the forces that initially delivered preselection to factional operative Michael Towke before the 2007 election.

• The ABC reports that Tony Crook, Goldfields pastoralist and candidate for Kalgoorlie at the 2008 state election, has been “recruited” to stand as Nationals candidate against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor. In response to a reader’s email, I recently had occasion to transpose the state election booth results on the new federal boundaries. In O’Connor, the Nationals would have polled 38.0 per cent to the Liberals’ 25.3 per cent and Labor’s 20.7 per cent. In Durack (successor to Barry Haase’s seat of Kalgoorlie), it was Labor 29.2 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Nationals 28.5 per cent. It should be noted that these numbers are heavily distorted by the presence of sitting Nationals members at state level, as well as the impact of state issues like Royalties for Regions and one-vote, one-value. The Nationals’ federal campaign in Western Australia will be bankrolled by litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer, with the stated objective of gaining a Senate seat.

• There is increasing talk that former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam will vacate his seat of Vaucluse at the next election. He faces multiple preselection challenges in any case, the apparent front-runner being University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton. Local paper the Wentworth Courier has taken aim at Debnam with an article and accompanying vox pop on his parliamentary inactivity during the current term.

Sonia Byrnes of the Cooma-Monaro Express reports that Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro will nominate for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which the party has won the right to contest without challenge from the Liberals. Labor’s Steve Whan holds the seat by 6.3 per cent.

• Commenter Hamish Coffee relates that a local newspaper has Clover Moore dismissing rumours she won’t seek another term as state member for Sydney.

Ben Raue at The Tally Room reports that the South Australian Greens are conducting their preselection for the Legislative Council ticket at next year’s state election. The candidates are Carol Vincent, who as SA Farmers Federation chief executive offers an unusual pedigree for a Greens candidate; Tammy Jennings, one-time Democrat and current convenor of the state party; former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit; and the apparently little-known Mark Andrew. At stake is a very likely seat for the first candidate, and an outside chance for the second.

• The Sydney Morning Herald has carried a piece from NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell outlining the party’s position on campaign finance reform: caps on spending extending to third parties, caps on donations and bans on donations from other than individual citizens, tighter regulation of lobbyists and extension of Independent Commission Against Corruption powers to cover the nexus between donations and government decisions.

• Mumble man Peter Brent gives the once-over to the recent Essential Research survey on which leader is best equipped to handle “issues of national importance”, noting how much these questions are influenced by incumbency.

Courtesy of the latest Democratic Audit of Australia update:

• Last month’s Audit seminar on campaign finance, Dollars and Democracy: How Best to Regulate Money in Australian Politics, will be the subject of tonight’s episode of The National Interest on Radio National from 6pm. A fortnight ago, Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn appeared on the program discussing enrolment procedures and electoral boundaries.

• The Audit’s submission to the Victorian Electoral Matters Committee inquiry into the Kororoit by-election gets it right on proposals to tighten laws on misleading campaign advertising, namely that the cure would be worse than the disease.

• Brian Costar discusses campaign finance reform on Meet the Press.

• The Queensland Government has published its green paper on “a range of topics including political donations and fundraising, lobbying, whistleblowing and pecuniary interest registers”.

• Norm Kelly argues the merits of a ban on overseas donations in Australian Policy Online.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,259 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. I reckon the really interesting thing will be if the gov’t can get the Henry review to mesh with the recommendations about health reform. There’s enormous potential there in that nexus for re-organising how we do business here.
    Welcome GeezLouise.

  2. [On Schapelle: when you go to pick up something, you automatically anticipate how much it’s going to weigh and adjust for it. If it unexpectedly weighs less than you expected]

    The “coffee money” was supposed to make it weighs nothing at all: “I see nothing, I know nothing”.

    Unfortunately, the “coffee money” was missing on the night.

  3. HSO @ 1202

    Come the Henry review, there’ll be so many interest groups yelling that it’ll take a lot of quiet analysis to work out precisely how any implementations will affect us (I suppose the Main Stream Mice will all say “impact”, sigh).

  4. geezlouise

    William’s blog will give you the full gamut: pleasure, annoyance, schadenfreude,things you never knew you had to know and lots and lots of laughs. Bienvenue.

  5. Indeed, Viggo, the question of how we will all be impacted by any prospective reforms will no doubt consume many column centimetres.

    It is an interesting prospect that Harry raises, though. Given we’ve seen Henry’s suggestions that Federal/State taxation reforms could be an important part of the recommendations, it’s not unreasonable to see health spending through the same reform lens.

    Coincidental timing or good policy-process planning? Fortuitous timing or chickens coming home to roost?

  6. Viggo Pedersen,

    I certainly am, though I don’t know much of the lingo.

    The Age of Expansion, Inflation, Religious Ferment & Really Stupid Foreign Policy! Actually there a few ages like that…

  7. Thursday’s Q&A should be a bottler:

    * Richard Flanagan – prize winning author
    * Kamila Shamsie – Pakistani author
    * Tara June Winch – new Australian writer
    * Lindsay Tanner – Minister for Finance
    * Tony Abbott – Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs

  8. [William’s blog will give you the full gamut: pleasure, annoyance, schadenfreude,things you never knew you had to know and lots and lots of laughs. Bienvenue.]

    Is this a blog or a whore house?

  9. can someone ask Tony Abbott a question that requires him to only discuss his policy areas that way we can have some peace and quiet.

  10. * Lindsay Tanner – Minister for Finance
    * Tony Abbott – Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs

    Har Har Har!

  11. Agree Viggo P. I just hope for a bit of courage and staring the rent seekers down. I know the Coal industry are immensely powerful and therefore influential in relation to how Labor has developed its policy, and that Labor are probably pretty disappointed about how much they could achieve with the CPRS. Big pharma are just as powerful, I’d chance a guess, and have the best union going to back it when needed in the form of the AMA.
    I suppose it’s always what’s politically possible in the current parliamentary context, while keeping you eye on what you want to actually achieve, medium to long term.
    Don’t suppose Labor have much to worry about with Malcolm and the Libs. for a bit.

  12. Kersebleptes,

    Your use of fonts and emos is impressive. There will be no need for bowing and scraping:-)

    My fondness for pr 1600 is mainly towards pre-Columbian South America. The only language there that I have even a remote knowledge of is Quechua. I’m more interested in the archaeology.

  13. Finns – after what we have learned about your flirtations with herrings we are left wondering exactly what we are here. lol. Reincarnation as one of your mob doesn’t sound too bad.

    Wonder if Tony Abbott will only want to talk about his little holiday as a teacher’s aide in the Cape while Parliament was in session. His excuse was that he fitted in with the teachers because of school holidays. Surely he could have made it later and out of sitting times or was he giving Christopher Pyne the opportunity to hang himself as MOOB

  14. ru, will Malcolm be able to restrain himself from pontificating himself? Certainly didn’t stop him from ‘presenting’ Costello with a few ideas he’d had about some issues in Costello’s portfolio, like say, tax.

  15. HSO @ 1215

    The greater the poll gap the more room Kevin wil have to do what he wants. This may not be what all “right thinking Australians” (PBs) want but I’m optimistic.

  16. [Will Turnbull get Ergas to comment on the Henry review of tax?]

    Rua – Nah, Turnbull will want to get stuck into it himself altho Joe Hockey says they are waiting to read it before working on their own tax policy.

    Henry has already said there will be nasties it that will be politically unsavoury but I’m with HSO and just hope that Kev & Co are ready to stand up to the AMA and Pharma mob and take a long term view. And sell it properly.

  17. [Henry has already said there will be nasties it that will be politically unsavoury but I’m with HSO and just hope that Kev & Co are ready to stand up to the AMA and Pharma mob and take a long term view. And sell it properly.]

    Well with Capolingua no longer AMA President, I reckon Kev will get a more receptive ear from them, the Pharmacists on the other hand.. Oh and the WA Libs don’t want to hand over the hospitals to Kev either.

  18. Viggo Pedersen,

    Pre-Columban South America, très cool! And you know some Quechua!

    I know it’s a pop-book, but I wonder if you’ve come across that interesting but exasperating tome called “1491”, by an American journalist whose name escapes me.

    I know that it’s terribly organised, and constantly implies that cutting forests down is a great thing to do, but to your knowledge are there many actual glaring inaccuracies in it? Especially in the bits about the Andean cultures…

  19. K @ 1228
    I’ve come out of lurking. The tome was “1421” and was written by a British Naval officer by the name of Menzies (yes that’s right Menzies). I think that it has since been pretty much discredited. Back to lurking.

  20. Kersebleptes

    I don’t know the book. Quechua predominates in Bolivia and Peru. I only spent a brief time there as a tourist in 1998. The archaeology spurred me on, and the mythology.

    A couple of books I found interesting are “Ancient South America” by Karen Ohlsen Bruhns and “The secret of the Incas: myth, astronomy, and the war against time” by William Sullivan. Over the years, National Geographic has had some excellent articles on the topic. “Lost city of the Incas” by Hiram Bingham is a classic.

    I don’t think there was too much political polling there in those days: at a maximum, it would have been a King of Id thing – you know two levers, one for the king and the other? Look, Mum, no hand.

  21. enjaybee,

    Sorry, I’ve been washing up. No, they’re two different books.

    “1421”. Oh jeez, what tripe. There were periodic assertions so ridiculous it was staggering- but he had a really engaging writing style. So reading it was like sitting in a comfy armchair while receiving stinging slaps in the face at random intervals. But he gained a very loyal band of believers (although the Chinese weren’t too pleased from the start)…

    “1491” is newer, and is ostensibly about the Americas just before Columbus’ arrival. A lot of it is actually about periods in distant prehistory, or about the period of European colonisation. I have read very little about these periods, except from the European perspective, and was wondering if Viggo had more at his fingertips.

  22. Viggo,

    Thanks for the references! I wouldn’t spend too much effort seeking “1491” out if you haven’t seen it. It was just that it spoke of cultures I had never heard of, from the savannahs of eastern Bolivia, and the big island at the mouth of the Amazon.

    Because it was not an academic work (definitely not!), I just wasn’t sure how many of the author’s assertions were well-accepted.

    There was an entertaining thumbnail history of Tawantinsuyu in one chapter, which drew on some allegedly very little-known manuscripts from the period. One of them asserted that Wayna Qhapaq died of smallpox ➡ years before Pizarro got near the place. Things like that…

  23. Viggo

    [My fondness for pr 1600 is mainly towards pre-Columbian South America. The only language there that I have even a remote knowledge of is Quechua.]

    I’ve got a problem. When Finns went to Machu Picchu last year, he photographed a sign he saw there saying “Diogenes, You Were Wrong”. This troubled me for two reasons.

    1. I thought Quechua was not a written language as such and was only communicated using coloured bead sequences.

    2. How did they know about a 4th century BC Greek philosopher?

    I believe Finns’ credibility, or what’s left of it, is on the line. 👿

  24. Diogenes,

    Perhaps they need someone to search for honest men there. Get your lantern and jump on a plane!

    PS- Machu Picchu was built by the Atlanteans as a holiday home for their Lemurian friends. Fair dinkum…

  25. From Twitter – a clue ?

    [theburgermanNews poll results are always interesting. But sorry – they’re embargoed until 10.15pm.3 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  26. News poll results are always interesting. But sorry – they’re embargoed until 10.15pm

    Now that’s the way to use Twitter to create interest & anticipation.

    I love the way they had the front to assert that the renovations at Ku-ring-gai have nothing to do with the possums’ depredations, when the story had such public interest that everyone must know about it now. The spokesperson should get a fistful of brownie points for getting that our with a straight face…

  27. Actually, Diogenes, I’ve just remembered that there was an appendix in that book that was all about the quipu (the coloured knots). It was one things I wanted to ask Viggo about, since the theories in it seemed fairly radical.

    Apparently there is a new idea that the quipu are not at all like our writing, but more like a modified binary code- utterly different from any other mode of human to human communication (certainly pre-electronics).

  28. Diog, these are the 4000 years old archeological proofs that i dug up for your benefits.

    My credibility is as intact as the coca leaves that my Incas friends and i chewed. That is more than i can say about yours, whatever left of it:

  29. Nate the Great,

    Well, I was wrong about one thing. Any deal Britain has done with Gaddafi is not keeping all this quiet- it’s bringing it all up to glaring public scrutiny.

    ShowsOn/Psephos/etc were rightabout one thing: for their own sake the Brits should have let him die in gaol. Sending a coffin to Tripoli would have been much more discreet than inconvenient questions like this.

  30. [ShowsOn/Psephos/etc were rightabout one thing: for their own sake the Brits should have let him die in gaol. Sending a coffin to Tripoli would have been much more discreet than inconvenient questions like this.]
    What? I thought you agreed with Mitchell that freeing the terrorist was designed to avoid embarrassment? It didn’t take long for that theory to fall to pieces.

  31. In amongst all the brouhaha of Mr Milne’s piece on the weekend about Mr Turnbull’s flirtation with the ALP, has anyone considered the possibility that in the great le Carre tradition, Mr Turnbull may have been surreptitiously recruited by the ALP then, and sent back as a mole to penetrate, take command of, and ultimately engineer the destruction of, the enemy? I have no direct evidence of course, but as an hypothesis it would seem to have considerable explanatory power in relation to events of the last twelve months.

  32. [Mr Turnbull may have been surreptitiously recruited by the ALP then, and sent back as a mole to penetrate, take command of, and ultimately engineer the destruction of, the enemy]

    Talk about wild conspiracy theories…

  33. ShowsOn,

    No, not retreating from any of the statements I made earlier (I was standing out of the main blast of the discussion, anyway).

    My point at 1243 was that if the deal was made for silence as well as oil, then Gaddafi has welshed on it spectacularly (which is his style). And at the same time the media in Britain have got hold of it, and are presumably deciding whether to beat the Govt over the head with it.

    Whatever is happening, some of the fallout will settle at #10 Downing St. The tactic of trying to quarantine the damage in Scotland probably won’t work.

  34. Speaking of le Carré, has anyone ever read his 1996 book “Tailor of Panama”. It’s about a bloke who gets recruited by an intelligence agency as a mole. He comes to enjoy the experience immensely, making great efforts to satisfy his handlers. Until the fateful day when he loses balance, and makes up a great pile of stuff that seems exactly what his employers have been wanting

    Remind people of anyone?

  35. [My point at 1243 was that if the deal was made for silence as well as oil, then Gaddafi has welshed on it spectacularly (which is his style).]
    A far simpler explanation is that there was no deal for oil, that is just Gaddafi propaganda that Mitchell has jumped on.

    What happened is that the Scotland Justice Minister made a terrible mistake that is possibly going to result in the end of the government he is part of.

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