The past fortnight’s face-to-face Morgan polling has Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 58-42. Labor is down three points on the primary vote to 47.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent and the Greens are up one to 9.5 per cent. Apart from that:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the state of play after the redistribution proposal abolishing Laurie Ferguson’s Sydney seat of Reid:
There was a rumour he was eyeing Parramatta under a plan which would see the incumbent in that seat, Julie Owens, move to Greenway, a Liberal seat which is assuredly Labor thanks to the redistribution. For various reasons, that scenario is not going to fly. More solid is a plan, backed by Ferguson and his support group in the Left, for him to move to the western suburbs seat of Fowler. It is held by Julia Irwin but it is anticipated she will retire at the election. Irwin belongs to the Right but the Left controls the branches in Fowler and wants the seat back. Ferguson, however, faces resistance to getting any seat at all, and that includes from elements of his own faction. “How do you think we would look in terms of renewal?” said one powerbroker. Left kingmakers are leaning towards the Liverpool Mayor, Wendy Waller, for Fowler. The Right is pushing Ed Husic, who ran for Greenway in 2004 but was the victim of a race-hate letterbox campaign … Ultimately Rudd has the final say, a power the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, could only dream of given the looming preselection fights among NSW Liberals. But it is a power that needs to be used wisely, sparingly and sensitively. “Kevin should not be unfavourable to Laurie,” warned a Ferguson friend, claiming Ferguson had helped Rudd win the leadership.
• Very soon after the previous report appeared, it emerged the NSW Liberal Party was changing its rules to allow, as Imre Salusinszky of The Australian describes it, a three-quarter majority of the state executive to “rapidly endorse a candidate on the recommendation of the state director and with the go-ahead of the state president and the party’s state and federal parliamentary leaders”. The rules are ostensibly designed for by-elections or snap double dissolutions, but can essentially be used at the leaders’ pleasure. This places the party on a similar footing to Labor, whose national executive granted sweeping federal preselection powers to Kevin Rudd and five party powerbrokers earlier this year. The most obvious interpretation of the Liberal move is that it’s an attempt to stymie the influence of the hard right in party branches, and Salusinszky indeed reports the reform is expected to be opposed by “a large part of the Right faction”. However, the Labor parallel demonstrates it can equally be seen as part of a broader trend to centralisation necessitated by the ongoing decline in membership and resulting opportunities for branch-stacking.
• From the previously cited Phillip Coorey article, Nathan Rees’s chief-of-staff Graeme Wedderburn is said to be assured of a winnable position on the Senate ticket at the next election: second if Steve Hutchins retires, third at the expense of incumbent Michael Forshaw if he doesn’t. “Unless, of course, he can be persuaded to enter state politics, which is another option being floated.”
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald (again) notes that South Australian Senator Cory Bernardi is causing angst by agreeing to appear at a hard-right fundraiser in Cook, where federal member Scott Morrison continues to battle the forces that initially delivered preselection to factional operative Michael Towke before the 2007 election.
• The ABC reports that Tony Crook, Goldfields pastoralist and candidate for Kalgoorlie at the 2008 state election, has been “recruited” to stand as Nationals candidate against Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor. In response to a reader’s email, I recently had occasion to transpose the state election booth results on the new federal boundaries. In O’Connor, the Nationals would have polled 38.0 per cent to the Liberals’ 25.3 per cent and Labor’s 20.7 per cent. In Durack (successor to Barry Haase’s seat of Kalgoorlie), it was Labor 29.2 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Nationals 28.5 per cent. It should be noted that these numbers are heavily distorted by the presence of sitting Nationals members at state level, as well as the impact of state issues like Royalties for Regions and one-vote, one-value. The Nationals’ federal campaign in Western Australia will be bankrolled by litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer, with the stated objective of gaining a Senate seat.
• There is increasing talk that former NSW Opposition Leader Peter Debnam will vacate his seat of Vaucluse at the next election. He faces multiple preselection challenges in any case, the apparent front-runner being University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton. Local paper the Wentworth Courier has taken aim at Debnam with an article and accompanying vox pop on his parliamentary inactivity during the current term.
• Sonia Byrnes of the Cooma-Monaro Express reports that Queanbeyan councillor John Barilaro will nominate for Nationals preselection in the state seat of Monaro, which the party has won the right to contest without challenge from the Liberals. Labor’s Steve Whan holds the seat by 6.3 per cent.
• Commenter Hamish Coffee relates that a local newspaper has Clover Moore dismissing rumours she won’t seek another term as state member for Sydney.
• Ben Raue at The Tally Room reports that the South Australian Greens are conducting their preselection for the Legislative Council ticket at next year’s state election. The candidates are Carol Vincent, who as SA Farmers Federation chief executive offers an unusual pedigree for a Greens candidate; Tammy Jennings, one-time Democrat and current convenor of the state party; former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit; and the apparently little-known Mark Andrew. At stake is a very likely seat for the first candidate, and an outside chance for the second.
• The Sydney Morning Herald has carried a piece from NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell outlining the party’s position on campaign finance reform: caps on spending extending to third parties, caps on donations and bans on donations from other than individual citizens, tighter regulation of lobbyists and extension of Independent Commission Against Corruption powers to cover the nexus between donations and government decisions.
• Mumble man Peter Brent gives the once-over to the recent Essential Research survey on which leader is best equipped to handle “issues of national importance”, noting how much these questions are influenced by incumbency.
Courtesy of the latest Democratic Audit of Australia update:
• Last month’s Audit seminar on campaign finance, Dollars and Democracy: How Best to Regulate Money in Australian Politics, will be the subject of tonight’s episode of The National Interest on Radio National from 6pm. A fortnight ago, Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn appeared on the program discussing enrolment procedures and electoral boundaries.
• The Audit’s submission to the Victorian Electoral Matters Committee inquiry into the Kororoit by-election gets it right on proposals to tighten laws on misleading campaign advertising, namely that the cure would be worse than the disease.
• Brian Costar discusses campaign finance reform on Meet the Press.
• The Queensland Government has published its green paper on “a range of topics including political donations and fundraising, lobbying, whistleblowing and pecuniary interest registers”.
• Norm Kelly argues the merits of a ban on overseas donations in Australian Policy Online.
1148
So you don`t trust people who loaded the bombs onto the planes that bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Shows.
Was the bombing of Dresden a crime? was Hiroshima a crime? Of course not?
Crimes are only committed by those on the losing side.
Ye gods. I had no idea that was the result when Justice was done after Son My.
1153
That sort of thing is the reason that the US is yet to sign up to the International Criminal Court and has passed anti-ICC laws.
For those wondering why Libya offered up $2.7 billion for the families of those killed on Pam Am 103 over Lockerbie, see the Wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103#Compensation_from_Libya
It’s a well referenced summary of the conditions of the deal and the outcome. It wasn’t free money from Gaddafi – it was paid in pieces associated with the lifting of sanctions, etc.
The bombing of Dresden and Hiroshima/Nagasaki during the second world war were vile acts but were acts committed in War Zones i don’t recall Scotland in 1988 being in a war zone.
The residents of those communities while under international law were illegally targeted but at least had air raid sirens to warn them of what was coming, now what warning did the 270 people murdered on that plane have.
[So you don`t trust people who loaded the bombs onto the planes that bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki?]
[Was the bombing of Dresden a crime? was Hiroshima a crime? Of course not?]
LOL! How did I know people would just jump over and talk about warfare?
IMO, conducting a terrorist bombing of a civilian aircraft and a military bombing campaign during war are two different things.
The U.S. wouldn’t of bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki if the Japanese agreed to the Potsdam Declaration, i.e. admitted that they had lost.
StephenD,
Thanks for that link. So he spends money like water, but he does get the odd good return.
[Punishment, in my view, is not a reason to jail anyone.]
What a staggering comment. So if there is no risk that a person will repeat their crime, they should just be released? “OK, Mr Eichmann, we don’t think there’s any chance that you will organise another genocide of 6 million people, and of course as you say, you were only following orders, so you can go home now, sorry to have inconvenienced you.”
[It’s a well referenced summary of the conditions of the deal and the outcome. It wasn’t free money from Gaddafi – it was paid in pieces associated with the lifting of sanctions, etc.]
And required Gaddafi to admit that the bombing was coordinated by the Government.
So why that Mitchell guy is saying it had something to do with Iran I have no idea.
If we’re not careful, we will end up arguing the morality of (just?) war.
That way lies madness.
Be polite. He’s hardly an unknown…
[Be polite. He’s hardly an unknown…]
It’s unfortunate that his (apparent) notoriety didn’t lead to an argument that makes sense.
Interesting that Iran is meantioned, Robert Fisk in his book “The Great War for Civilsation – The Conquest of the Middle East” wrote that it was possible that the Lockabe bombing was in response to the U.S missle attack on an Iranian airline about a year earlier
Essential Research: 58-42.
Support for an ETS-driven early election continues to fall; confidence in the economy continues to rise; there is no one widely held view on who should be our next US Ambassador; and two-thirds agree that “the Liberals are just not prepared at the moment to take on the difficult task of governing Australia”.
To be blunt, and somewhat controversial given the general slant of the views expressed here, those upset by Megrahi’s release need to get over it.
He’s dying, he was probably a scapegoat, and Libya doesn’t appear to be in the jet bombing business this year. It’s all very well to be obsessed with punishment, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of evidence that punishment helps anyone except the very likely psychologically disturbed “victims” of crime.
ShowsOn, it’s possible that we’re heading down a hypothetical rabbit hole here, because Mitchell’s statement below appears unsupported by references:
[And that, of course, is a view widely held by legal experts, many journalists who covered the original trial, academics, politicians and even some relatives of the Lockerbie victims.]
Nonetheless, assuming for the moment he’s right, I think the embarassment would come from cases such as this occurring after centuries of declaring how just and righteous the British system of justice is by comparison to others, and instances such as this occurring so (relatively) recently after cases that have already been mentioned in this discussion.
Not everyone reacts with the same emotions to issues such as this, of course, and embarassment is such a variable. Some of us may have been embarassed for our national justice system over the Haneef matter, for example, but not all of us.
All the things you have said about the system providing opportunities to overturn mistakes are true, and, as I also said I think that, if it is true, Mitchell’s assertion that this man was released to avoid his conviction being overturned is more embarassing. I say that because it might reveal that the government was unwilling to accept the responsibility for facing up to the alleged mistakes in this case.
StephenD! I don’t totally did agree with you but still i am of the view that if you are given a sentance then unless there is new evidence to change the verdict then i think you should do the time.
Psephos
Jail people, remove them from society for life, fine by me. Punishment implies something more – go and break rocks, be treated as sub-human.
Surely we can show compassion to a guy who will die of multiple organ failure in the next couple of months?
Or should we continue the hatred?
Rewi Lyall breezes in and cuts the Gordian Knot…
Well done. I’m going to look at the poll.
The British legal system has been under pressure this year with several high profile murder convictions being proven to be incorrect or cases where the police have missed clues allowing certain people to carry out additional crimes.
1171
English or Scottish? Presumably mainly the former.
Yes they are different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scots_law
Tom! Thank!
I was referring to cases that have caused the Government a hard time.
[there is no one widely held view on who should be our next US Ambassador]
Alexander Downer tops the poll of named pollies but a bigger % of dont knows. Dolly will be jumping through the hoop with excitement.
Still think that Kev has never had an intention going to a DD but the press will say he has now changed his mind because of the polls.
If we send Downer, the Seps will wonder what the hell they have done to deserve it. I know they are masters at jollying idiots along, but several of years of running into Dolly at receptions would just be too much.
It’s interesting that the most preferred option is a career diplomat, and, under the circumstances, by a relatively wide margin. This is, after all, ostensibly DFAT policy for such appointments.
Does this reflect an appreciation in those polled that such posts are too important to be the subject of political determination?
I wonder if the fall in support for an ETS driven double dissolution reflects a successful ‘mean and tricky’ campaign on the link between the RET and ETS by the Opposition and Greens?
Was the secret bombing of Cambodia that killed 350,000 and led to Pol Pot a crime? Of course not, it was done by the good guy, US of A.
….”…Punishment, in my view, is not a reason to jail anyone…”
You have obviously never given a moment’s thought to the harm done by those who commit crimes. My experience has been those who carry out crimes really couldn’t give a *s..t* about the people they hurt and generally treat their victims as meaningless objects. If society cares at all about those harmed by criminal acts, if society cares about public safety and justice, then society will find, try, convict and give a fitting sentence to those who carry out crimes.
[Jail people, remove them from society for life, fine by me. Punishment implies something more – go and break rocks, be treated as sub-human.]
No it doesn’t. The punishment in this case is deprivation of liberty.
[Surely we can show compassion to a guy who will die of multiple organ failure in the next couple of months? ]
I don’t see why. If a court has sentenced someone to a term of deprivation of liberty, that term should be served, if needs be in a hospital bed, unless there is a policy based decision to commute it (ie, a parole system).
[Or should we continue the hatred?]
Modern penology is not based on hatred, but on the consistent, predictable and dispassionate application of justice.
Falling support for a DD on the ETS (love the acronyms, can we fit any more in?) is only a problem for Labor if they’re blamed for the DD.
If the impression is that Labor did all it could to avoid one, but were thwarted at every turn, then those who resent the DD might punish the party/s they see as responsible for the impasse.
Thoughts??
Why did they shoot down that Iranian plane? They eventually admitted that there was no good reason to do it. But they also refused to admit they were wrong, and then decorated the personnel that did it!
Even if there was no Lockerbie connection, it was evil & bizarre.
Is Barnaby’s ‘Kev’s tax on everything – in the car, etc. etc.’ working, do you think?
Zoomster, I had a laugh over the acronyms too. Was thinking we were starting to sound like Kev
…..two-thirds agree that “the Liberals are just not prepared at the moment to take on the difficult task of governing Australia”……
This is a very telling stat. It shows that the public do tune into politics – even if only at tangent sometimes – and have formed a view of the LNP that is basically consistent with the fact: they are divided, they are without policies, they have no settled leadership….
Rewi Lyall @ 1176,
The No vote on the DD re the ETS has hardly changed, people have just switched from yes to don’t know. The April question isn’t comparable because it relates to financial measures generally and was not ETS specific. The results don’t surprise me, the vast bull of the population simply don’t understand the ETS enough to make an informed decision.
The interesting part of the Essential results is that there are 17% of the population sampled who would vote for the Coalition even though they think they are a rabble who are unable to govern the country (ie 36% coalition primary v 21% disagree with comment that Libs are a rabble). I guess there are 4% voting for Family First as well so the stupidity doesn’t solely lie with the Coalition supporters 😀
Dave55,
You’re wondering what it would take to chip off that 17%?
zoomster, given that it seems many people genuinely do not like early elections the Government would have to take that approach if it was to succeed.
Dave55, good call on the double dissolution questions: details, details!
And yes, very amusing.
Zoomster,
With an improving economy, some of the tough decisons expected in next year’s budget may be avoided. Therefore no difference between going early or later.
It’s been discussed here previously, a DD may only advantage the Greens politically.
With the Libs now prepared to deal, the ETS may get up. The Libs know that rejection of the ETS is a DD trigger and they would be substantially worse of than now.
Punters don’t like early elections and could get cranky if called for spurious reasons.
‘17% of Australians prefer disorganized rabble: Essential Research’
Another case of crime and punishment, by that authoritative magazine New Idea, courtesy of the Corby Family. Poor Schapelle, no wonder she has gone insane.
[Schapelle Corby has gone insane and will not survive her 20-year sentence unless she is moved out of Bali’s Kerobokan jail, a top Australian psychiatrist has warned. Associate Professor Jonathan Phillips, who is believed to have been employed by the Corby family, visited Corby in prison earlier this month and says the former beauty student is “hanging on by a thread”.
“She is lost in her own bewildering world where fantasy, hallucinations and bizarre ideas dominate her mind,” Dr Phillips told New Idea magazine.
Dr Phillips, former president of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists, says the 32-year-old will continue to deteriorate unless she is moved.]
http://www.smh.com.au/world/schapelle-corby-insane-20090824-ewd3.html
An interesting point regarding the number of voters who think The Government would be unjustified in calling a DD election is that surely there wouldn’t be too many Coalition voters who wish to see an early DD.
I’m surprised the figure isn’t higher, close to the Coalition Primary vote>
Rewi,
I didn’t realise that Rugby League was so popular.
Boom boom!
Yes, GG, but the question is who would they get cranky with??
I don’t think a DD is a good idea. The problem with early elections of any kind is that things aren’t ready on the ground – in Victoria, preselections are far from finished, for example.
Not necessarily a problem in safe and marginal seats, where the war chest is available, but for the ‘non marginals’ – some of whom, in a general election, will produce a surprise swing – it creates huge difficulties. Small numbers of branch members means a greater reliance on the local candidate to bring in money, resources and VIP visitors (very much a case in these electorates of not what you know but who).
So a DD can look great on paper but not deliver on the ground.
Hey, Psephos, what do you think of the Bookies $17 for the draw now?
Pretty safe odds as it turned out. I thought that we would put up a better fight than that. The run-outs were idiotic!
[“She is lost in her own bewildering world where fantasy, hallucinations and bizarre ideas dominate her mind,”]
She could start her journey back to sanity by not reading ‘New Idea’.
Finns –
In direct contradiction to my usual opinion on matters of justice and incarceration, I have no sympathy whatsoever for Schapelle. She should’ve been imprisoned for stupidity, or perhaps for being a beauty therapist (if the one does not imply the other), long before her misfortune in Bali.
[With an improving economy, some of the tough decisons expected in next year’s budget may be avoided. ]
Surely the big thing in the next budget will be complete costing for some major health reform. That could work out to be billions of dollars more a year spent on health if the states hand the Feds more control of hospitals.
36% of Coalition supporters think they are a rabble not ready to govern the country. Yet they would still condemn the country by trying to vote them in.
On Schapelle: when you go to pick up something, you automatically anticipate how much it’s going to weigh and adjust for it. If it unexpectedly weighs less than you expected, you jerk it higher into the air than normal; if it weighs more, you notice that you’re having to apply extra force.
It’s something you do several times every day, without noticing. But you do notice, immediately, if the weight is wrong.
If I went to pick up a boogie board and it suddenly weighed 4 kilos more, I would recognise instantly that it weighed far more than it should.
Kersebleptes
Not worth devoting too much thinking time to I’m afraid … but if I did 😉 , I suspect those 17% might even be some of the smarter Lib voters, just so rusted on that they can’t bring themselves to look elsewhere.
The Libs must be thanking their stars the Dems self destructed because this was an easy 17% for them if they were still around.