ACNielsen: 56-44

The latest ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters has Labor’s lead at 56-44, following an aberrant 58-42 result the previous month. Labor leads on the primary vote 46 per cent to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down a point to 31 per cent and his disapproval is steady at 60 per cent, which Tony Wright of The Age notes has him the same territory as Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean in the terminal phase of their leaderships. Peter Costello remains favoured as Liberal leader by 35 per cent, against 19 per cent for Joe Hockey, 17 per cent for Turnbull, 10 per cent for Tony Abbott and 3 per cent for Andrew Robb. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up a point to 68 per cent, against a disapproval rating of 24 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 66-25 to 67-24. Fifty-nine per cent want the government’s emissions trading scheme bill passed as soon as possible, and 58 per cent approve of Rudd’s handling of the relationship with China.

Essential Research should be through any moment now (4.30pm EST), but I won’t be able to help you with that until this evening: Possum‘s often quite quick on that front though (and The Finnigans has a small amount of detail in comments). UPDATE: Here it is. Labor’s lead is down from 60-40 to 58-42. Also featured: the performance of Australian law enforcement in preventing terrorism (most excellent), whether such efforts have been unduly concentrated on the Muslim community (no), who should lead the Liberal Party (Joe Hockey), a really interesting one comparing Kevin Rudd’s performance across various issues with John Howard’s (slight lead to the latter on economy and defence/security, thumping ones to the former on everything else), and whether Malcolm Turnbull is fair dinkum on climate change (no).

Other matters:

• Mumble man Peter Brent has a paper in the latest Australian Journal of Political Science criticising the anachronism of the Divisional Returning Officer, part of what government consultants described as far back as 1974 as the Electoral Commission’s “flat” organisational structure: one national office at the top, six state ones in the middle, and no fewer than 150 divisional ones at the bottom. Occupants of the latter posts have too much to do during election periods, too little to do outside of them, and few paths to promotion, with resulting problems for staffing and morale. “Regionalisation” into offices covering four or five divisions has been advocated by the Electoral Commission itself, but has been resisted in part because MPs enjoy the convenience of a local electorate office, and also because they form troublingly close relationships with their local DROs.

• Two doses of cold water for Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt in Canning. The ABC’s Rebecca Carmody strikes back over past acts of condescension in the Sunday Times, noting she has a big obstacle to overcome in winning over the electorate’s semi-rural areas beyond her Armadale base. Tony Barrass of The Australian concurs, describing her as “a polarising figure, perhaps the most admired-disliked state political figure in the past decade”, and chiding the local media for “talking as though she’s home and hosed”.

• Glenn Milne beats the drum for a Kerryn Phelps candidacy against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth. For what it’s worth though, Labor’s local federal electoral council is making noises about the need for a local rank-and-file vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  3. 1700

    Give me a list of what you consider the major reforms of the past 20 years and I`ll give you a for and against.

  5. Geez Tom, you don’t like to put much effort into your posts, do you? You want everyone else to do your work for you.

    I thought it was a fairly straight forward request for an active Greens activist like yourself!

    You should have that sort of information right at your fingertips, I would have thought!

  7. [Geez Tom, you don’t like to put much effort into your posts, do you? You want everyone else to do your work for you.

    I thought it was a fairly straight forward request for an active Greens activist like yourself!

    You should have that sort of information right at your fingertips, I would have thought!]

    It’s their modus operandi, they expect us Alp’ers to quote chapter and verse to justify our comments, but when the pressure is on them they can’t be stuffed doing their own research, thus proving they are all talk and no action.

  8. scorpio,

    Smith actually used those comments to demolish Bishop in Parliament today. Curtis focus on the visa issue was what brought Julie undone.

  9. GG, I only watched about a third of QT today and missed that. I would love to have seen it.

    It shows though, just how week the journalistic skills are when they don’t push the likes of Bishop further on questions like that.

    The general public are all the poorer for their either cowardice or partisanship!

  11. My point about the Greens has been proven for if i asked the Liberals and ALP people to list the reforms that their parties have supported over the past 20 to 30 years i suspect the list would be long.

    There have been many reforms over the past 20 to 30 years covering

    eonomics
    welfare
    tax
    foreign policy
    health care
    education

    there have also beem many major and minor projects completed or started in that time but what have the Greens supported.

  13. These sort of innovations and policy developments are happening on a daily basis with this Labor Government, more probably in 20 Months than Howard’s mob in 11.5 years and the Greens want to chuck them out and get the rabble back in. It just makes my head spin!

    [Communications Minister Stephen Conroy has used an eHealth conference in Canberra to unveil a $60 million funding package to improve broadband-delivered health, emergency services and education in regional Australia.

    Senator Conroy told the National eHealth Conference that delivering better health outcomes across Australia was a key-driver for building the National Broadband Network.

    NBN applications in the eHealth sector were expected to deliver billions of dollars worth of savings to Government, Senator Conroy said, as well as create tens of thousands of new jobs.

    The $60 million Digital Regions Initiative would fund projects to deliver high-quality digital applications in the health sector to the bush, including remote medical consultation, diagnosis and treatment.]
    http://www.itwire.com/content/view/27106/53/

  15. [These sort of innovations and policy developments are happening on a daily basis with this Labor Government, more probably in 20 Months than Howard’s mob in 11.5 years and the Greens want to chuck them out and get the rabble back in. It just makes my head spin!]

    They have to repay the Libs for letting Adele get elected in Fremantle 🙂 And no amount of denials from Tom The First and his Space Cadets will change that little factoid.

  16. Greensborough Growler,

    He’s like Bob1234, rip a couple of good one’s into them and call them on their rubbish and they quietly disappear!

  17. [Didn’t Rudd put Cate Blanchett in charge of the 2020 thingie?

    Cate and her husband Andrew Upton are Rudd’s best mates.
    ]

    Sorry but that’s the sort of stuff one would expect on an Akerman blog.

    Blanchett was a co-chair but took a one week old baby along to the 2020 thingie so might have been busy doing other things. Professor Glyn Davis chaired the independant steering committee.

  21. Scorpio.
    Just because one does not support the ALP does NOT mean that one supports the Liberals or wants to see them returned to power! Okay? It might be conventiant for major party supporters to look through an either/or spectrum but this “if you’re not with us, you’re with the terorists” line just doesn’t cut it.

  22. And it doesn’t stop there. The NBN has the potential to transform a substantial part of Australian society and enhance the quality of life in many ways.

    [Funding applications would also be open to projects targeting technologies that delivered improved emergency and disaster response, as well as resources and services to improve educational opportunities.

    Senator Conroy said Government was now open to applications for funding, and that projects were expected to start rolling out early next year.

    “The implications of the National Broadband Network and the advance of ICT in the health and aged care sectors are profound,” Senator Conroy told the conference.]

  23. The Heysen Molotov,

    You apparently didn’t read all those earlier comments about Get-UP and raising money to mount challenges in marginal Labor electorates.

    It would be no trouble to go back and cut and paste them for you.

    It cuts it all right. I think your comments are quite unfair. Greens supporters have been making comments like that for days and days and trying to swamp the site with their misguided and blatantly unfair, misleading commentary!

  24. [Just because one does not support the ALP does NOT mean that one supports the Liberals or wants to see them returned to power! ]

    Who in the blazes are they going to put into power then? The Greens? Family First? The DLP? WHO? There’s not much to choose from if Labor get thrown out of office. The only mob that will replace them is the Coalition.

    I don’t think that is too hard to understand! Dreams and wishful thinking are no replacement for reality!

  25. [You apparently didn’t read all those earlier comments about Get-UP and raising money to mount challenges in marginal Labor electorates.]

    Actually I’ll make it easier and post their latest email.

    [Dear Frank,

    While our politicians use the climate crisis as a political football, GetUp members are stepping up to create a hard-hitting grassroots climate campaign they can’t ignore: ‘ReEnergise Australia’.

    Here’s why other GetUp members are donating:

    “If everyone contributes a little it will add up to something that will make the politicians take notice.” June, Bowral NSW

    “I consider global warming the most dangerous threat facing our world and wanted to help. If we all give what we can afford, no matter how small, through GetUp, we just might get some action from both government and oppositon.” Gillian, Nambour, QLD

    “I became a father 7 months ago. I’d like my daughter to have a world to enjoy, not battle to survive in.” – Silas, Bondi NSW

    We’ve already raised an incredible $90,000 – and every extra dollar will mean we can reach even more Australians. Will you join them and ReEnergise Australia?

    http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/reenergiseAus

    Thanks for being part of this!
    The GetUp team

    — original email we sent you last week —-

    —
    NEWS JUST IN: The Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme just failed in the Senate. Click here to help launch our massive grassroots program – ReEnergise Australia.
    —
    Dear Frank,

    Politicians fiddle while Rome – and the rest of the planet – burns. We can’t wait for them to fix the climate crisis in their own time. So today we’re launching ‘ReEnergise Australia’: a bold campaign powered and funded not by big polluters, but by you me.

    Combining cutting-edge technology with the passion of the GetUp community, we’ll take our message door-to-door and imbue the nation, and our politicians, with your vision for a renewable future. To make it a reality, this needs the support of thousands. How would you like to be involved?

    Yes! I’ll donate to make it happen.
    I’d like to volunteer.
    I’ll do both!

    Here’s how it works: we need to raise $100,000 and mobilise 10,000 volunteers this week to train and equip Australians to hit the streets in their suburbs, starting with the people our politicians listen to most – those living in key marginal seats.

    Massive investment in clean energy will create tens of thousands of new jobs, but our politicians still have their heads stuck down a coal mine. Renewable energy companies are telling us they’re just weeks away from to having to lay off most of their staff due to a lack of Government support.1

    Will you help get this fact out to thousands of Australians?

    I’ll donate.
    I’ll volunteer.
    I’ll do both!

    Time and again, you’ve told us that renewable energy is your number one priority. But who will do for renewable energy what the polluter lobby is doing – so successfully – for coal? With a force of over 300,000 Australians committed to ReEnergise Australia, the answer is us.

    Thanks for being a part of the solution,
    The GetUp team

    PS – Recently coal companies operating in Australia and the US were exposed for faking letters from grassroots groups to US politicians, urging them to vote against climate legislation.2 That’s what we’re up against. But we have something they never will – a genuine grassroots movement. Click here to put it into action.

    1″Solar panel companies are feeling the heat” Sydney Morning Herald, July 31, 2009.
    2″BHP Billiton caught in US climate change scandal” Sydney Morning Herald, August 13 2009.]

  28. Frank,

    They should give those poor, misled people their money back. $90,000 is a lot of cash to collect for something that has just been passed through both Houses of Parliament!

  30. [Frank,

    They should give those poor, misled people their money back. $90,000 is a lot of cash to collect for something that has just been passed through both Houses of Parliament!]

    Nah, it will be for Bob Brown’s Election War Chest, they’ve defeated the Libs, now their job is to elect St Bob and his merry band of eco-whackallons 🙂

  32. It is rare to see Stephen Smith in an angry state and he did let fly at Bishop. The point will stick too: the Liberals now appear like the party that would abridge free speech and freedom of travel. Not only that, they have been willing to try to make political capital at the expense of a bi-partisan approach to China. No wonder he was fuming.

  35. Fran Kell to C Pyne this morning in relation to the Opposition’s rulein/rule out tax attack.
    “How do you know that? Did Godwin Gretch tell you?”

    Touche!

  36. PAAPTSEF

    [ Didn’t Rudd put Cate Blanchett in charge of the 2020 thingie?

    Cate and her husband Andrew Upton are Rudd’s best mates. ]

    I’m not sure why that upset you. Someone made the comment that actors should never be allowed to talk about politics. I pointed out that Rudd had put Blanchett in charge of the 2020 thingie (or very similar).

    I’m pretty sure the comment about Cate and her husband was meant as a compliment.

    Which bit isn’t true?

  37. Warren Truss, talking down the idea of the Nationals ‘divorcing’ the Liberals:

    [… n the long term a marriage is for sickness and in health, and in health we will achieve great things in partnership]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/21/2662609.htm

    By “greatness” (sic) I assume he means being part of a government committed to WorkChoices that redefining the magnitude of pork-barrelling.

  40. A sad story here on the underreporting of suicide statistics by NSW and QLD. The rate is as high now as in the 1990s and inadequate menatl health services are almost certainly to blame. The number stated is 2700-3000 per year; higher than the road toll 🙁
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/wellbeing/revealed-australias-suicide-epidemic-20090820-es3p.html

    Regretably I find this typical of state health bureaucracies – if you can’t fix the problem, “doctor” the statistics, (wiht apologies to Dio and any other real doctors here)

  41. I’ll see how I go, Polyquats. Sometimes they reject my submissions (though there are invariably slews of right-wing rants posted).

  42. [The director of health and vital statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Tara Pritchard, confirmed the bureau would release updated figures in March to correct the undercounting.]

    I’m unclear as to whether the suicide numbers were deliberately under-reported or whether it was just incompetence. Probably the latter.

    Either way, it’s a terrible terrible result which we can be sure will be ignored by Governments.

  44. Yes Cuppa. The coalition has “struggled in the polls” since Rudd became opposition leader. Funny how the media always try to tie the poll position to a current or recent event. Makes it look like it can be more easily turned around, but disingenous to do so

  45. The question is not about any ‘cover up’ but is anybody doing anything in reaction to rates, especially if they are increasing.

    I am always concerned that the publishing of suicide rates and making it to high a profile public issue might seem to validate it as an option in the minds of some of the clinically depressed. People seem to obtain the courage of their convictions when in the company of others with similar convictions.

  46. TP

    As far as everyone has been concerned, the suicide rates have been dropping so there has been no urgency to do anything as there is nothing to react to.

    Your concerns about suicide reporting are quite valid. There is a Werther Effect (after Goethe’s book) which especially shows that high profile suicides are often followed by others (except Kurt Cobain’s for some reason). The media always put a link or refer to beyondblue or a similar organisation when they report suicide.

    I really hope the suicide figures were stuffed up inadvertantly rather than deliberately. I can’t really think of too many more disgusting things than faking dropping suicide figures to make your department look good, knowing it would mean less is done for suicide prevention.

  47. It looks like the Nats are going to do what the Liberal Party should have done years ago!

    [Nationals launch bid to unseat Tuckey]
    [The National Party has recruited a high-profile Kalgoorlie identity to stand against outspoken WA Liberal backbencher Wilson Tuckey at the next federal election.

    Goldfields pastoralist Tony Crook has nominated for Nationals preselection for the federal seat of O’Connor, which has long been held by the 74-year-old MP.

    The National Party’s state president, Colin Holt, says Mr Tuckey will not go down without a fight, but Mr Crook stands a good chance of unseating him. ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/21/2662795.htm?section=justin

  48. Typical of the Nats, though. I would like to see how they could extend their “pork-barrel strategy” to the Federal level. Good old Nats. Forever the dreamers, forever Ag socialists.

    [Mr Crook has told the ABC the Royalties for Regions program will be a central part of his campaign at the next election.

    He says the success of the program’s success at a state level means a similar scheme should be adopted by the Federal Government.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/21/2662795.htm?section=justin

  50. Scorpio

    “You apparently didn’t read all those earlier comments about Get-UP and raising money to mount challenges in marginal Labor electorates.”

    Why are you so terrified of Get-Up? Do you have any evidence that their campaigning does anything?

Comments are closed.

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