ACNielsen: 56-44

The latest ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters has Labor’s lead at 56-44, following an aberrant 58-42 result the previous month. Labor leads on the primary vote 46 per cent to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down a point to 31 per cent and his disapproval is steady at 60 per cent, which Tony Wright of The Age notes has him the same territory as Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean in the terminal phase of their leaderships. Peter Costello remains favoured as Liberal leader by 35 per cent, against 19 per cent for Joe Hockey, 17 per cent for Turnbull, 10 per cent for Tony Abbott and 3 per cent for Andrew Robb. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up a point to 68 per cent, against a disapproval rating of 24 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 66-25 to 67-24. Fifty-nine per cent want the government’s emissions trading scheme bill passed as soon as possible, and 58 per cent approve of Rudd’s handling of the relationship with China.

Essential Research should be through any moment now (4.30pm EST), but I won’t be able to help you with that until this evening: Possum‘s often quite quick on that front though (and The Finnigans has a small amount of detail in comments). UPDATE: Here it is. Labor’s lead is down from 60-40 to 58-42. Also featured: the performance of Australian law enforcement in preventing terrorism (most excellent), whether such efforts have been unduly concentrated on the Muslim community (no), who should lead the Liberal Party (Joe Hockey), a really interesting one comparing Kevin Rudd’s performance across various issues with John Howard’s (slight lead to the latter on economy and defence/security, thumping ones to the former on everything else), and whether Malcolm Turnbull is fair dinkum on climate change (no).

Other matters:

• Mumble man Peter Brent has a paper in the latest Australian Journal of Political Science criticising the anachronism of the Divisional Returning Officer, part of what government consultants described as far back as 1974 as the Electoral Commission’s “flat” organisational structure: one national office at the top, six state ones in the middle, and no fewer than 150 divisional ones at the bottom. Occupants of the latter posts have too much to do during election periods, too little to do outside of them, and few paths to promotion, with resulting problems for staffing and morale. “Regionalisation” into offices covering four or five divisions has been advocated by the Electoral Commission itself, but has been resisted in part because MPs enjoy the convenience of a local electorate office, and also because they form troublingly close relationships with their local DROs.

• Two doses of cold water for Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt in Canning. The ABC’s Rebecca Carmody strikes back over past acts of condescension in the Sunday Times, noting she has a big obstacle to overcome in winning over the electorate’s semi-rural areas beyond her Armadale base. Tony Barrass of The Australian concurs, describing her as “a polarising figure, perhaps the most admired-disliked state political figure in the past decade”, and chiding the local media for “talking as though she’s home and hosed”.

• Glenn Milne beats the drum for a Kerryn Phelps candidacy against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth. For what it’s worth though, Labor’s local federal electoral council is making noises about the need for a local rank-and-file vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  1. Heavens to Betzy! He has all the most original arguments, doesn’t he?

    Actually, I imagine the Greens wouldn’t be too keen on a feral beaver population in Australia, any more than the problematic population of feral humans…

  4. Scorpio

    You complain that people won’t read your posts (which in my case was because I had to read your posts to find out what my tactics were… Which is dumb).
    So why didn’t you actually read the content of my post, where I just asked you to explain what you meant? I just wanted you to clarify what you stated.

  6. Rewi Lyall,

    I’d missed that, so thanks! That could really get up. Fundamentally changing a country’s armed forces is a hard thing to do, but there are few “brands” more respected than ANZAC…

    Even though Australia & New Zealand habitually have political cycles out of whack with each other, isn’t it encouraging that the two Govts so often work well together (our bad-faith Johnny notwithstanding)?

  7. [Kersebleptes they want to DESTROY Labor… They want to OBLITERATE all opposition and create new DYNASTY or POWER ]

    I don’t have a problem with that, it is a democratic country. I do though get heartily sick of Bob1234 and TomTFAB constantly telling us just that in repetitious, single sentence posts.

    I also have a problem with people constantly posting that they wish to throw the doors wide open and put out the welcome mat for the Conservatives to romp back into undeserved power!

  9. [I do at that, Scorpio @ 1790.]

    It was lucky I didn’t take much notice of your post at the time. Not long after I got on at $4.80 with Sporting Bet with a nice little ton invested.

    It made election night very enjoyable.

  11. [So why didn’t you actually read the content of my post, where I just asked you to explain what you meant? I just wanted you to clarify what you stated.]

    I did read it and responded that I had already answered those questions in previous posts which is why I suggested you go back and read, I mean “READ” them!

  12. Zedar,

    I was actually responding to Diogs trite little couplet at 1751.

    I’m glad the gene pool of the Greens is expanding to include old rich white lawyers as their pre selected candidate in Melbourne. All the Greens community activist ferals will be impressed.

  13. Dio

    I didn’t quite understand why Overington was carrying on about Barrow Island.
    It has long been established as an “ark” – Harry Butler was heavily involved way back in the 70s I think. It has had a special place environmentally in WA. The reason it was termed an “ark” was because they had eradicated every invader species, even weeds. He had to battle with workers on the island who wanted to bring in potted flowers.

    I think Overington was mocking something there that she didn’t fully understand.

  15. [We all share your pain about the stupid posts.
    But it’s not just from one side.]

    Thank you for that Astrobleme. I only wish that some of your fellow travellers felt the same way and did something about it.

    And certainly I agree whole heartedly with your second comment and we all know who the culprits are but they certainly had regular baits dropped in their direction to make them bite. There certainly was occasions where they bit on a line with no hook “or “bait attached.

  16. There’s a lot of article out at the moment about black market organ harvesting (there was a very dubious report in Sweden that the Israeli Army was killing Palestinians and grabbing their organs which caused an international incident).

    It does look like there is a “black market” in organs, probably in every wealthy country. Have there ever been suggestions that it happens in Oz (I’m more thinking of people who donate an organ for cash rather than the more horrible alternatives).

  17. [I read them and they still made no sense.]

    I can’t help it if your level of comprehension is on a different level to mine.

    The simple thing to do to avoid the problem is not to bother trying and just carry on regardless with your fellow travellers in your regular fashion!

  19. It looks like Shannahan has woken up to the fact that all his efforts in trying to prop up the Conservatives are totally in vain and that they need to do what has been suggested by many a poster on this and other blogs including those at the Oz.

    That is, acknowledge their defeat, realise that they can’t bounce straight back into Government, renew, develop policies acceptable to the electorate at large and not just a narrow base and move away from a messiah complex. Won’t happen of course!

    [Only the most deranged Howard hater (foolishly) compared the Liberal Party of Australia to the Nazis. Still, there is a sense in which Aue’s diagnosis seems to bear out the present mindset of the federal Liberals in the long lead-up to the next election. Hopelessly divided and led by a second straight dead carcass swinging in the breeze (albeit in Malcolm Turnbull’s case with somewhat more panache), the party is paralysed by fear of a looming electoral Armageddon. Yet the disaster is, as Aue put it, already here.

    Some Liberals are canvassing alternative leadership options or, in the case of the member for Jurassic Park, Wilson Tuckey, openly working against Turnbull. Indeed, the Liberals appear to be in a permanent state of mutually assured destruction. If Turnbull’s detractors manage to defeat him in a leadership showdown, the spectre of a fourth Liberal leader within two years is hardly likely to engender the confidence of voters. By contrast, short of some reverse-Tampa miracle, Turnbull’s Liberals are heading for an electoral wipe-out.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25957855-5017272,00.html

  20. Scorpio @1790 and William @1805, I remember that comment re Bennelong clearly, and I, too, disagreed with that view as I thought she had a very good chance and Rudd was correct to encourage her.

    But I also recall a prediction by William of 84 seats (I think) for the ALP in the 2007 election. More restrained than many predictions at the time, but also more correct.

  21. scorpio

    Don’t worry Shanners can still pen drivel like this.

    [The Coalition has realised the government’s dilemma and is laying the groundwork for an argument that the budget deficit and $300billion in borrowings to fund the various stimulus packages have been an overreaction that pushes up costs for working families.]

    The borrowings are not to fund various stimulus packages, they are to make up for the shortfall in Govt. revenue.

  22. [You’d rather people didn’t understand your posts than explain them?]

    Sorry, I might be a reasonably clever fellow, but I can’t make people understand something that they either don’t want to understand or don’t have the mental capacity to allow them to do so.

    I can’t help you with that and would rather exchange views and opinions on issues of substance rather than my opinion of the motives and strategies of Greens posters on this forum, who don’t or can’t, understand why they are alienating others.

  24. ruawake,
    [Don’t worry Shanners can still pen drivel like this.]
    Yeah, that’ll take off and fly as well as a tiger moth with no engine in front. He’s right about one thing though, the Libs are toast and getting more burnt and blacker by the day.

    It must be breaking his rolled gold, conservative, Howard adoring heart. Pity that!!!

  25. [ Have there ever been suggestions that it happens in Oz (I’m more thinking of people who donate an organ for cash rather than the more horrible alternatives).]

    Be careful, william will post some witty rejoinder how there is only 00000000.1% of the popN who have black market organ transplants.

    Cant wait to see what he comes up with.
    😉

  26. [Be careful, william will post some witty rejoinder how there is only 00000000.1% of the popN who have black market organ transplants.]
    But it could hypothetically increase to 40%!

  29. [Have there ever been suggestions that it happens in Oz (I’m more thinking of people who donate an organ for cash rather than the more horrible alternatives).]

    I guess it would be quite possible in the case where a person/family enter into an agreement with a donor. The surgeon may not be aware of any agreement between the parties, only that the recipient had a voluntary donor. If this does happen then you could wonder the position of the donor and if they were capable of making a rational choice. Selling off a kidney to fund a gambling habit for example would be a worry.

    Are there any laws pertaining to the live donation of organs?

  30. The first US retreat for internet addicts has opened its doors, welcoming a teenager that was captive to the World of Warcraft online role-playing videogame.

    The 19-year-old boy went from pursuing quests in Azeroth to bottle-feeding baby goats and building a chicken coop as part of a reStart Internet Addiction Recovery Program at a rural five-acre spread in the state of Washington.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/21/2663028.htm?section=justin

    But do they take burnt-out bloggers?
    I bet he gets addicted to baby goats & chicken coops…

  31. [You, I can take, but when poss writes LULZ,]
    Hypothetically, Possum didn’t write that, a virus inside his computer wrote it.

    So hypothetically you have nothing to worry about.

  32. [Hypothetically, Possum didn’t write that, a virus inside his computer wrote it.

    So hypothetically you have nothing to worry about]

    40% of the time
    😉

  33. The census stats are based on self identification anyway. So if there are about 200,000 Islamic Aboriginals, who just refused to admit their religious affiliation, then you are hypotethically right.

  34. Scorpio

    “Sorry, I might be a reasonably clever fellow, but I can’t make people understand something that they either don’t want to understand or don’t have the mental capacity to allow them to do so.

    I can’t help you with that and would rather exchange views and opinions on issues of substance rather than my opinion of the motives and strategies of Greens posters on this forum, who don’t or can’t, understand why they are alienating others.”

    That’s lovely.

    Good luck with that.

  35. [So if there are about 200,000 Islamic Aboriginals, who just refused to admit their religious affiliation, then you are hypotethically right.]

    Also Hypothetically as well
    🙂

    I guess you didnt read that link I found after posting my Hypothetical
    🙁

  36. Just going back to that Colebach article “Rich got richer in Howard years”, I found this bit interesting.
    [However, the pie itself grew massively over those 12 years. The bureau estimates all income groups became substantially better off, with incomes for those in the broad middle growing by 52 to 54 per cent. Income for those at the bottom grew 46 per cent.]
    http://business.theage.com.au/business/rich-got-richer-in-howard-years-20090820-es2v.html

    I am sure that people earning over $200,000 getting an increase of 40.5% would have been much happier than people on $15,000 getting an increase of 46%.
    $81,000 increase sure beats $6,900.

  40. fredn,

    Yeah, I realised that a while after I posted when I went back to it.

    I was hoping no one would notice. lol wishful thinking. Actually it was a Shannahan article I linked to on the OZ main page and I didn’t even think to look to the side and hadn’t got as far as the bottom.

    Quite happy to accept a well deserved spanking for that!

    Hope I don’t enjoy it too much though!!!

  42. 1798

    The currently no prospect of the Greens and ALP coming to a no three cornered contest agreement because all the seats that the Greens are competitive in (except maybe Prahran) are ALP held. Also the upper house contests mean that the Greens and ALP would not want to leave an area for one of their opponents to have a monopoly on picking up Assembly votes in because almost everybody votes the same way in both houses and there is no prospect of joint upper house tickets.

  43. [The article is sane but it was written by Nick Dyrenfurth not Shannahan.]

    That’s a pretty good reason for it being “sane”.

  44. [I guess you didnt read that link I found after posting my Hypothetical]
    Probably not. But I read the stats Bill Bowe quoted.

  45. [Probably not. But I read the stats Bill Bowe quoted.]

    of course, he is the one doing a post doctoral thesis on that very subject,silly me.

  46. Gusface

    I thought his thesis was on “The use of blogs as a political tool: Can we change anyone’s mind by arguing?”

  47. and to save you the necessary effort
    😉
    [http://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/58316/Stephenson.pdf]

  48. [I thought his thesis was on “The use of blogs as a political tool: Can we change anyone’s mind by arguing?”]

    Imaginatively subtitled:

    Agree with my worldview or your banned
    🙂

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