The latest ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters has Labor’s lead at 56-44, following an aberrant 58-42 result the previous month. Labor leads on the primary vote 46 per cent to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down a point to 31 per cent and his disapproval is steady at 60 per cent, which Tony Wright of The Age notes has him the same territory as Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean in the terminal phase of their leaderships. Peter Costello remains favoured as Liberal leader by 35 per cent, against 19 per cent for Joe Hockey, 17 per cent for Turnbull, 10 per cent for Tony Abbott and 3 per cent for Andrew Robb. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up a point to 68 per cent, against a disapproval rating of 24 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 66-25 to 67-24. Fifty-nine per cent want the government’s emissions trading scheme bill passed as soon as possible, and 58 per cent approve of Rudd’s handling of the relationship with China.
Essential Research should be through any moment now (4.30pm EST), but I won’t be able to help you with that until this evening: Possum‘s often quite quick on that front though (and The Finnigans has a small amount of detail in comments). UPDATE: Here it is. Labor’s lead is down from 60-40 to 58-42. Also featured: the performance of Australian law enforcement in preventing terrorism (most excellent), whether such efforts have been unduly concentrated on the Muslim community (no), who should lead the Liberal Party (Joe Hockey), a really interesting one comparing Kevin Rudd’s performance across various issues with John Howard’s (slight lead to the latter on economy and defence/security, thumping ones to the former on everything else), and whether Malcolm Turnbull is fair dinkum on climate change (no).
Mumble man Peter Brent has a paper in the latest Australian Journal of Political Science criticising the anachronism of the Divisional Returning Officer, part of what government consultants described as far back as 1974 as the Electoral Commission’s flat organisational structure: one national office at the top, six state ones in the middle, and no fewer than 150 divisional ones at the bottom. Occupants of the latter posts have too much to do during election periods, too little to do outside of them, and few paths to promotion, with resulting problems for staffing and morale. Regionalisation into offices covering four or five divisions has been advocated by the Electoral Commission itself, but has been resisted in part because MPs enjoy the convenience of a local electorate office, and also because they form troublingly close relationships with their local DROs.
Two doses of cold water for Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt in Canning. The ABC’s Rebecca Carmody strikes back over past acts of condescension in the Sunday Times, noting she has a big obstacle to overcome in winning over the electorate’s semi-rural areas beyond her Armadale base. Tony Barrass of The Australian concurs, describing her as a polarising figure, perhaps the most admired-disliked state political figure in the past decade, and chiding the local media for talking as though she’s home and hosed.
Glenn Milne beats the drum for a Kerryn Phelps candidacy against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth. For what it’s worth though, Labor’s local federal electoral council is making noises about the need for a local rank-and-file vote.
1,849 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”
Some people here aren’t all that keen on others exercising their democratic rights. Dissent is to be discouraged under all circumstances. Conformity will make you free.
Yes, and even very small campaigns are somehow terrifying in the effectiveness!
Where in the article does it say that the income gap is bad?
There is something wrong with the top 20% getting more than the bottom 60%.
[Why are you so terrified of Get-Up? Do you have any evidence that their campaigning does anything?]
I’m not concerned about Get-Up whatsoever and I think that any influence they had in the 2007 campaign was marginal at best.
I am concerned that Greens supporters are under some illusion that all they have to do is use Get-up and other means to campaign against Labor and all their troubles will magically disappear and some wonderful climate change abatement scheme will just happen of its own accord, or sillier still, that a re-elected Coalition Government will do so.
It’s all fantasy and the repetitious posts along these lines do the Greens supporters no credit and show just how shallow their desire is to achieve a good result for the climate is. I am heartily sick of it.
Why don’t they direct their efforts and energies towards the Coalition who are the main stumbling block preventing Labor from going further with it. And give a good bolloking towards that stupid, self-centered Fielding while they are at it!
No, there isn’t anything wrong. Everyone got richer under Howard.
[No, there isn’t anything wrong. Everyone got richer under Howard.]
The point was that the rich got a lot more richer while the poor marginally improved if at all.
I refer you to Lady Thatcher on issues of “the gap”
From the article GP –
[The top 20 per cent of income earners, after adjustment for family size, increased their share of the nation’s income from 37.3 per cent to 40.5 per cent – more than the total earnings of the bottom 60 per cent. All other income groups saw their share of the nation’s pie shrink.]
Thatcherism is nothing to be proud of.
[Some people here aren’t all that keen on others exercising their democratic rights. Dissent is to be discouraged under all circumstances. Conformity will make you free.]
I hope you are not referring to me here. It is good that people can exercise their democratic rights but I would prefer that they do so in an intelligent, well thought out fashion.
It has not been uncommon for strong Labor supporters to express misgivings about some aspects of the current Governments performance which demonstrates that there is certainly “NO” conformity of opinion among Labor supporters.
The only dissent that I see here from a number of Labor supporters, including myself, is the manner in which Greens supporters feel they need to campaign for an enhanced ETS. See my post at 1754 to see how I see it, and I believe many others do too.
Periods of high inflation in the prices of basic commodities (foodstuffs, etc.) always favour the rich. Nothing new here.
Yes, Howard liked it that way. Resentful, small-minded climbers tend to view their social position based on how many people are “below” them, and how much less fun than themselves they have.
So maximising the number of people who worked hard, but still suffered hardship, was all to the good…
[Thatcherism is nothing to be proud of.]
No, especially when you consider the level of inequality that existed in Britain at the time.
2% of the population had 80% of the wealth of the country and 80% had just 2% of the wealth of the country.
I will never forget those figures. Australia at the time was much better but there was and still is, a poor division of wealth in this country.
Thatcherism is definitely something to be proud of. She smashed union control, freed up the economy and restored Britain’s prestige in the world.
[Everyone got richer under Howard.]
Yes, who can forget Howardnomics
“We’re all rich, rich beyond our wildest dreams and it’s going to last forever, go for growth, buy houses, buy Telstra shares, buy buy buy, we’re growing growing growing.”
Get-Up, the Greens etc can use whatever political manoevres they wish to bring about the goals they want. I’m not in either but I’m sympathetic to both. If their tactics work, that’s good. If they backfire, they have to wear the consequences.
She was also the only sitting PM to be thrown out by her own Party. And she had the worst unemployment figures in Europe.
I see The Tripoli Post has a slightly different spin on the release of the imprisoned Locherbie bomber…
[The Age thinks it’s bad news that people in every income band improved their standard of living under John Howard:
Bunch of trots, as usual.]
Oh here we go again, Mr Empathy strikes again.
Try researching ‘income disparity’ and ‘social cohesion’.
Or just retreat into your gated community and shut up.
[If they backfire, they have to wear the consequences.]
That’s the problem. We “all” will have to wear the consequences. All I can see are a downside resulting from this strategy and directing it towards Labor posters in this forum, who mostly wish to see the best ETS that the country can support without collapsing, is stupid and childish and is alienating people who may be able to help.
I am certainly not prepared to assist people who’s only wish appears to be to have the elected Government that I campaigned hard for and support, thrown out of office only to let the shameful rabble that has only 20 Months ago been justifiably thrown out, to regain the reins of power.
[I see The Tripoli Post has a slightly different spin on the release of the imprisoned Locherbie bomber…]
The difference between the Scottish and US responses was stark enough.
Yes, Obama was less than happy with the decision. He knew the circus that would result back in Libya. I haven’t looked at how al-Arabiya etc. are reporting it…
I can’t see the Greens directing their preferences to the Libs ahead of Labor, but they obviously don’t want to be taken for granted either. If they agree with Labor on everything, they might as well dissolve the Greens Party and just join the Labor Party. They want to pull Labor to the left and have to create some tension to do it. Labor won’t shift from the Centre without someone criticising them from the Left. They’re just doing their job.
Of course, if they manage to reproduce Nader’s effort in the US and inadvertantly deliver an Australian equivalent of 8 years of Bush instead of 8 years of Gore, they should all be taken out back and shot. 😉
I’ve seen comments here in the past that on recent polling the Nats would have a decent shot at defeating Tuckey in O’Connor. It appears they’ve also realised it:
You are not really making any sense… the Greens ‘using’ GetUp?
“I am concerned that Greens supporters are under some illusion that all they have to do is use Get-up and other means to campaign against Labor and all their troubles will magically disappear and some wonderful climate change abatement scheme will just happen of its own accord, or sillier still, that a re-elected Coalition Government will do so.
It’s all fantasy and the repetitious posts along these lines do the Greens supporters no credit and show just how shallow their desire is to achieve a good result for the climate is. I am heartily sick of it. ”
This is pretty much nonsense. Greens supporters using GetUp… I think you are just making up conspiracy theories.
Looks more like another boring Labor vs Greens argument again.
scorpio & Diogenes,
It is interesting how producing a Senate with the Greens alone holding the BoP (which surely must be the aim of those that want stronger action) seems to be the secondary goal, behind simply mobilising pressure on the Govt.
I suppose it does keep GetUp! from seeming to be in a partisan alliance with one Party…
“Of course, if they manage to reproduce Nader’s effort in the US and inadvertantly deliver an Australian equivalent of 8 years of Bush instead of 8 years of Gore, they should all be taken out back and shot.”
I think I’d do the shooting!
What a great day for political news stories.
First, UFO spotter and Kingpin Gerry Woods’ doggerel:
[“I sit upon my bottom as my mind begins to ache,” his first ditty began.
“I ponder what has happened, just a week ago to date.
“It seems like just a dream and not a real state.
“But when I open up my eyes I know it’s no mistake.
“So what’s the use of pondering if nothing is a fake.
“Just get on with living and laugh, not contemplate.”
The second poem was about the day he had to play kingmaker.
“Some days are good, some days are bad but none quite the same as the 14th day of August,” he told the chamber.
“Sometimes I’m happy, sometimes I’m sad, and sometimes I feel like the 14th day of August.
“Sometimes life’s easy, sometimes it’s not, that’s how it was on the 14th day of August.
“Some days I can’t remember, some days I can, but I won’t forget the 14th day of August.
“But life moves on and the sun comes up, so who cares about the 14th day of August.”]
Second, apparently the Nats are under investigation for ‘apparent breach of domain name registration rules’ for picking up nathanrees.com.au for a song:
Astrobleme @ 1752 Posted
Indeed they do. 1966, Qld school hols; therefore in Bris not up country. Someone at union conf organised support – donations, petition etc. Memories a bit hazy, as it merged into pro-Referendum donations, marches etc (Ref held 1967) and into antiVietnam donations etc. But the union conf I remember (as much as one does anything in a 1960s’ youth) because it marked, for me & many others, a commitment to something more than donations, petitions & letter-writing.
Wave Hill walk-off anniversary celebrated
Lest we forget
BTW: Worth noting: Many of those active over Wave Hill & the Referendum (& Green Bans, & Lake Peddar & anti-discrimination – mainly against women) were Liberals, some of whom would later (esp after Gorton was replaced by McMahon) join the Australia & Democratic parties.
Re earlier discussion: No, I don’t think my politics have changed much. Unions & “social wages”, Civil Rights & social justice, anti-discrimination (of any sort) activism … within Fabian & Ghandi’s principles.
PS please forgive errors. Things improving slowly.
[They want to pull Labor to the left and have to create some tension to do it. Labor won’t shift from the Centre without someone criticising them from the Left. They’re just doing their job.]
I don’t have any problem with that whatsoever. The problem that I have is the strategy being directed to Labor supporters on this blog as though all the Greens supporters have to do is make some sort of magical breakthrough with us and all will be well in the world. We can’t do much, if anything at all but we are sure being alienated at a fast rate of knots.
Few things more punishing than the fourteen-syllables-a-line da-da da-da da-da da-da da-da da-da da-da variety of verse.
It might not be up with Vogon, Azgoth or Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings poetry, but it’s pretty nasty.
Everyone has the democratic right to be an idiot. It is just the Greens like to exercise that right more than normal people.
Can you explain this better?
“The problem that I have is the strategy being directed to Labor supporters on this blog as though all the Greens supporters have to do is make some sort of magical breakthrough with us and all will be well in the world. We can’t do much, if anything at all but we are sure being alienated at a fast rate of knots.”
It makes no sense.
What do you mean by “all will be well in the World”?
What do you mean by “We can’t do much”
What are you talking about?
[Thatcherism is definitely something to be proud of. She smashed union control, freed up the economy and restored Britain’s prestige in the world.]
And during her time in office she increased government spending as a proportion of GDP.
She did however cut spending to defence.
You Greens supporters don’t give up easily do you? People don’t follow the comments on the thread, just jump in when they feel like it’s time to have another shot at a post without following the theme that that post has been following and questioning, and hijack the commentary in their preferred direction.
OzPol Tragic and Astrobleme, please take the time to go back and read my comments on this matter before taking me to task for questioning your tactics and manner of trying to influence Labor supporters which they are all heartily sick of by now.
I don’t think William or Crikey wish to see the blog taken over by partisan Greenies intent on alienating people who think differently to their narrow view on how to achieve their aims. Many of the posters who have loyally contributed interesting and informative comments on here since 2006 rarely post here now and I for one, miss their varied contributions.
I will certainly be looking for other ways of spending my time as they apparently are, than constantly reading your repetitious attacks. You lot won’t miss me but I am sure you will soon get sick of each of you playing the same tune over and over again in a constant loop!
So I have to read your posts to find out what my tactics were? No thanks.
“trying to influence Labor supporters which they are all heartily sick of by now”
What? So we aren’t allowed to try and convince each other of things?
“I will certainly be looking for other ways of spending my time as they apparently are, than constantly reading your repetitious attacks.”
I was actually trying to find out what you were on about as you weren’t making any sense.
Sorry that you feel attacked or whatever…
Greensborough Growler, was there really any call for the comment @1782? Diogenese discusses his view on why the Greens vote the way they do, and you respond with “hur hur greens r dum.” As a greens voter myself (though not a rabid environmentalist), the constant insults hurled around here (from both sides) gets irritating.
Particularly irritating is the constant accusations at the greens that they are doing the wrong thing by voting against the ETS bill. I think anyone with half a brain can see that the greens have perfectly valid reasons for voting against it, given that they don’t think it is a strong enough target, and they can do so safely in the knowledge that their vote doesn’t make any difference. The state of the senate basically means that gestures like these are all the greens can currently do to get their message across, as negotiations are completely useless given Fielding would never pass any such legislation. Any attempts to cast the greens as having sided with the liberals on this matter is seriously misinformed and deliberately misses the point.
As far as I’m concerned the greens exist to provide a voice for the left of politics in parliament. Personally I am happy to have labor in power and they are my preferred majority party, but I give the greens my first preference vote as they are the only way I can register an interest in a more leftist government. If i could explicitly vote for the left wing of the labor party I would do so, but the greens are my next best bet.
It’s what Frank does, if you argue with him he does it more.
It’s boring, but it’s what happens on this blog.
Best to ignore it.
(I can’t believe I said that!)
[They want to pull Labor to the left and have to create some tension to do it. Labor won’t shift from the Centre without someone criticising them from the Left. They’re just doing their job.
Of course, if they manage to reproduce Nader’s effort in the US and inadvertantly deliver an Australian equivalent of 8 years of Bush instead of 8 years of Gore, they should all be taken out back and shot.]
I agree with all of this Dio 🙂
You’ll have to learn to cope with The Greens; they are going to be around for some time.
I suspect some ALP fanatics are just jealous at The Greens phenomenal success and smashing the myth of the cosy 2PP Club.
It’s quite interesting going back through the archives. I bet William regrets this post back in February 2007.
Monday, February 26, 2007 – 5:43 am
I appear to be out on a limb here, but the plan for Maxine McKew to run for Labor in Bennelong (apparently confirmed in the Sydney Morning Herald) strikes me as being Kevin Rudd’s first serious misstep. Last week the Prime Minister homed in on what his finely tuned political antennae told him might be […] ]
They want to radicalise Labor, which at present is conservative on this issue. Labor is being careful of union as well as big business opposition. It’s not actually a Left-Right thing…
Kersebleptes they want to DESTROY Labor… They want to OBLITERATE all opposition and create new DYNASTY or POWER
Oops that should read
DYNASTY of POWER
[Kersebleptes they want to DESTROY Labor… They want to OBLITERATE all opposition and create new DYNASTY or POWER ]
If that is true, then first they’ll need to adopt some policies that more than 10% of the public want to vote for.
In news from the world of High Science, Australia has signed up New Zealand as a partner in the bidding war for the Square Kilometer Array.
Select quote from the week:
[Senator Abetz: I have said on odd occasions before that if I were a beaver the Greens would allow me to chop down trees and dam rivers to enhance my personal habitat, because that is what beavers do. But as I am a human being, I am not allowed to dam rivers or chop down trees to enhance my habitat and my lifestyle. I have news for Senator Brown and the Greens: humans are in fact part of nature and from day 1 we have been using water resources and timber resources.]
I wonder if at some future date the ALP and Greens will feel the need to arrive at an agreement similar to those which periodically appear between the Liberal and National parties to avoid three-cornered contests.
Caroline O had a funny column about it.
marg, if you go back and read “ALL” my comments on this subject you will see that I don’t have any problem like that at all.
The problem is the manner in which people keep posting arguments along similar lines that go nowhere to addressing the issue and all they achieve is get people off-side and cross.
Virtually everyone who has had a go at me have “NOT” read my posts and thought about the message I intended to convey. They only read them as some sort of attack on their “CAUSE” or at them personally for following a particular political leaning.
Nowhere have I done so and a proper reading of my comments would quickly show that. It’s all to do with not taking the care to read them in context and/or wilfully ignoring that in order to continue their misguided approach to the issue!
I am not going to engage in any more exchange on the issue and it is only recently that I have commented on it at all. The comments I have made on it were not on the ETS issue as such, of which I have expressed “NO” opinion, leaving that to others, but have expressed my strong disquiet about the “manner” in which many Greens supporters have prosecuted their cause.
It does them no credit at all!!!
Comments are closed.