ACNielsen: 56-44

The latest ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters has Labor’s lead at 56-44, following an aberrant 58-42 result the previous month. Labor leads on the primary vote 46 per cent to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down a point to 31 per cent and his disapproval is steady at 60 per cent, which Tony Wright of The Age notes has him the same territory as Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean in the terminal phase of their leaderships. Peter Costello remains favoured as Liberal leader by 35 per cent, against 19 per cent for Joe Hockey, 17 per cent for Turnbull, 10 per cent for Tony Abbott and 3 per cent for Andrew Robb. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up a point to 68 per cent, against a disapproval rating of 24 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 66-25 to 67-24. Fifty-nine per cent want the government’s emissions trading scheme bill passed as soon as possible, and 58 per cent approve of Rudd’s handling of the relationship with China.

Essential Research should be through any moment now (4.30pm EST), but I won’t be able to help you with that until this evening: Possum‘s often quite quick on that front though (and The Finnigans has a small amount of detail in comments). UPDATE: Here it is. Labor’s lead is down from 60-40 to 58-42. Also featured: the performance of Australian law enforcement in preventing terrorism (most excellent), whether such efforts have been unduly concentrated on the Muslim community (no), who should lead the Liberal Party (Joe Hockey), a really interesting one comparing Kevin Rudd’s performance across various issues with John Howard’s (slight lead to the latter on economy and defence/security, thumping ones to the former on everything else), and whether Malcolm Turnbull is fair dinkum on climate change (no).

Other matters:

• Mumble man Peter Brent has a paper in the latest Australian Journal of Political Science criticising the anachronism of the Divisional Returning Officer, part of what government consultants described as far back as 1974 as the Electoral Commission’s “flat” organisational structure: one national office at the top, six state ones in the middle, and no fewer than 150 divisional ones at the bottom. Occupants of the latter posts have too much to do during election periods, too little to do outside of them, and few paths to promotion, with resulting problems for staffing and morale. “Regionalisation” into offices covering four or five divisions has been advocated by the Electoral Commission itself, but has been resisted in part because MPs enjoy the convenience of a local electorate office, and also because they form troublingly close relationships with their local DROs.

• Two doses of cold water for Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt in Canning. The ABC’s Rebecca Carmody strikes back over past acts of condescension in the Sunday Times, noting she has a big obstacle to overcome in winning over the electorate’s semi-rural areas beyond her Armadale base. Tony Barrass of The Australian concurs, describing her as “a polarising figure, perhaps the most admired-disliked state political figure in the past decade”, and chiding the local media for “talking as though she’s home and hosed”.

Glenn Milne beats the drum for a Kerryn Phelps candidacy against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth. For what it’s worth though, Labor’s local federal electoral council is making noises about the need for a local rank-and-file vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  1. [The defacto Opposition Leaders are Tuckey and that fruit loop Joyce.]
    Isn’t it amazing that Joyce gets at least double the media exposure compared to the National’s actual leader Warren Truss.

  2. [I can’t remember Anthony being as left-wing as this. Living in the US must have done it to him under Bush.]
    Actors shouldn’t talk about politics in public, they just embarrass themselves.

  3. [Actors shouldn’t talk about politics in public, they just embarrass themselves.]

    I’d make an exception for George Clooney, he’s rather articulate and I think his father unsuccessfully ran for Congress.

  4. GG

    His family was definitely not poor.

    And I saw this talking about the status of women.

    Dinner Jacket named two women in his Cabinet, the first since the Revolution.

    [President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad revealed on Sunday the names of two women ministers for his next cabinet.

    The president named former MP Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi as health minister, current MP Fateme Ajorloo as welfare and social security minister. The president also said his cabinet will include more “women and youths.” ]

    http://www.tehrantimes.com/Index_view.asp?code=201124

  5. People like George Clooney and Matt Damon are really interesting to listen to and seem to have a firm glasp of what they are discussing but i cannot see Anthony falling into that group

  6. [Dinner Jacket named two women in his Cabinet, the first since the Revolution.]
    Well it’s a pity that millions of Iranian men and women didn’t have their votes counted.

  7. [I say Leigh Sales should join the Liberal Party. We need a saucy minx on our side. ]
    Keep wet dreaming G.P., cos it ain’t gonna happen.
    [What about Arnie? Mike Rann invited him to Adelaide yesterday.]
    Which the opposition criticised on the grounds that it was just Rann meeting a celebrity.

    It didn’t occur to them that Arnie is the Governor of the 5th largest economy in the world.

  8. Geez, I’m glad the Greenies have gone to bed. That was some of the most mind-numbing tripe I have seen posted for at least a couple of days.

    They say they are posting for the benefit of “readers” of the blog. I don’t think the “readers” would be able to hack too much of that stuff before they looked for a better way to spend their time!

    The Coalition don’t want to do anything about climate change so we will sool “Get-UP” on to Labor. That will ensure that things will happen and happen quickly.

    Yeah, right! Labor is the best hope for any decent movement to counter climate change and they want to throw them out of office so that the CC deniers and sceptics can take over the reins.

    Seems like a right smart way to go about it. Wouldn’t putting as much pressure on that mob as possible leave Labor to be more adventurous in regard the ETS Legislation knowing that there was support for them and a back-up to help keep them in office so that they can deal with it better.

    No, kick them out, their no good and get the other mob in, Barnaby, Minchin etc. Yeah, that’ll work. We will have the ideal ETS then, NONE!! Yeah right.

    I saw one poster earlier questioning the intelligence of Labor supporters. Boy oh boy! That’s a cheeky one. I and I believe, many other Labor supporters here, have a reasonable modicum of intelligence but I am having grave doubts about some others who have been flooding this forum with comments that continually leave me shaking my head and wondering why I bother to wast my time even giving them a passing glance!

  9. 1689

    I am still up.

    The Greens would do a much better job at everything including dealing with Climate Change if they were in Government.

  10. [The Greens would do a much better job at everything including dealing with Climate Change if they were in Government.]
    Ahh! But it is a Catch 22 scenario, for they will never be voted into government with their current policies.

  11. If the Green’s policies were so good and would solve the problems then the major two parties would have used them but they have not and there is a good reason that being that the policies that the Greens want to follow are in many cases narrow and would acheive little but too wreck jobs and the communities that depend on those jobs

  12. 1659
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, August 20, 2009 at 10:56 pm |”….I say Leigh Sales should join the Liberal Party. We need a saucy minx on our side. Though frumpy green suits are banned….”

    Yeah, she’d love to join a party where she’d be scrutinized for her looks, her dress sense and her ability to keep her mouth shut. Something tells me Wilson Tuckey will join the Greens before Leigh Sales joins your mob, GP…..

  13. Tom the first and best!

    Can you please provide an example of one major project or policy reform in the past 20 years that the Australian Greens have actually walked into the Parliament and supported?

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