Newspoll: 57-43

From Peter Brent at Mumble comes news that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 – up from 55-45 last time – with Labor’s primary vote on 46 per cent (up three), the Coalition on 38 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down two). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister rating has hit a new low of 16 per cent (down three), to Kevin Rudd’s 66 per cent (up two). Also featured is a question on the timing of an emissions trading scheme which finds 45 per cent believe the government should delay its legislation until “learning what other countries commit to at the Copenhagen climate conference in December”, compared with 41 per cent who believe legislation should proceed now. The Australian argues that the latter measure amounts to a 20 per cent drop in support for unilateral action since last September. However, the alternative answer in the earlier poll proposed that the scheme should proceed “only if other countries also introduce such schemes”, suggesting a longer delay than the less-than-five-months proposed by its counterpart in the current poll, and placing greater weight on the possibility a scheme might not proceed at all.

UPDATE 2: Peter Brent at Mumble has complete responses on the ETS questions.

Elsewhere:

• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on which party is better for handling various issues, which finds the Liberals have gone backwards since June 1; the government’s handling of relations with various countries; how safe respondents would feel visiting various countries; and Australia’s top security threat. More from Possum.

• The normally arcane topic of electoral reform has gone mainstream over the course of the past day’s news cycle, albeit in the questionable guise of optional voting rights for 16-year-olds. Special Minister of State Joe Ludwig has said the issue will be raised in the second of the government’s two green papers on electoral reform due later this year, the first of which dealt with campaign funding and expenditure issues and was published last December. The Greens are understandably enthusiastic, the Liberals equally understandably less so. Ben Raue spoke in favour on ABC News Radio earlier today, and further comments at The Tally Room.

• Advocates for retaining the existing Royal Adelaide Hospital site are rumoured to be seeking the requisite number of signatures (only 150 under the relatively lax provisions of the South Australian Electoral Act) to register their own political party in time for next year’s state election. Labor might like to recall that the two surprise defeats that cost their Western Australian counterparts government last year, Mount Lawley and Morley, were respectively in close and reasonably close proximity of Royal Perth Hospital, where a similar controversy was unfolding. Equivalent electorates in South Australia might be Adelaide (margin 10.2 per cent, but traditionally a swinging seat) and Norwood (4.2 per cent).

• AAP reports that Labor is seeking a candidate with “green credentials” – a “Kerryn Phelps-style figure”, to be precise – to take on Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth.

• After being cleared last week on a rape charge, Victorian Northern Metropolitan Labor MLC Theo Theophanous has made life easier for his party by announcing he will quit politics at next year’s election.

• The Geelong Advertiser reports that two candidates have emerged for Liberal preselection in South Barwon, which Labor’s Michael Crutchfield gained in the 2002 landslide and retained by 2.4 per cent in 2006, despite hostile press from the aforementioned Advertiser. The candidates are Ron Humphrey, who lost his Surf Coast Shire Council seat at last year’s elections and was an unsuccessful contestant for preselection in 2006, and Andrew Katos, who represents Deakin ward on Greater Geelong City Council.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee is conducting an inquiry into last year’s Kororoit by-election, after the Electoral Commission’s report expressed concern that no action could be taken against an ALP pamphlet which claimed a vote for independent candidate Les Twentyman was “a vote for the Liberals”. For what it’s worth, I have my doubts as to whether it’s feasible or desirable to regulate election rhetoric in the manner proposed.

• The Launceston Examiner reports that school teacher Rob Soward has lost Labor’s game of musical chairs in Bass, where seven candidates were chasing six positions on the ticket for next year’s state election. The lucky winners were incumbent Michelle O’Byrne, former member Kathryn Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean and North Tasmanian Development consultant Michelle Cripps.

• Legendary Clerk of the Senate Harry Evans, retiring after 40 years, reviews the evolution of parliament during his tenure in an article for Crikey.

• A self-explanatory new book entitled Australia: The State of Democracy, edited by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin for the Democratic Audit of Australia, is now available through Federation Press. The introduction can be read here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. Tomtfab

    The Qld CMC can investigate ANYTHING it feels like. The NSW and WA equivalents investigate only public sector corruption (to the best of my recollection). That is the big difference.

    I think Rose and Nuttall are the only politicians to be picked up – but they were both referred to the CMC by the leader of their party.

  2. William and all

    With sadness I note that the death of our fellow pollbludger, Judy Barnes, is being reported in SA media.

    A life well fought for justice, for many, in the face of the disastrous loss of her son.

    Vale, Judy.

  7. That is sad news.

    As far as you can love someone you only know via blogging, I loved Judy.

    She was truly compassionate. It’s trite to say that’s remarkable, given the living hell she went through, but it is. Our society tends to encourage our baser instincts, and I’m sure many people hoped to use her tragedy to push their own agendas. Hard to resist that kind of pressure, especially given the grief she suffered.

    A great woman.

  12. [MALCOLM TURNBULL has triggered fresh angst in the Liberal Party over his call this week to ban companies and unions from making political donations.]

    That would be as a result of George Brandis’s furious spin on Q&A last night. It was quite funny to watch but they should be called on it. Tony Jones gives them massive free kicks every week and the show is now getting to the stage that I probably won’t bother to watch it any more.

  13. Not doubting you Crikey, but do we have confirmation?
    It is indeed sad news if true. Judith was truly inspirational.

  14. [Joh Bjelke Petersen: It’s always after the event. We stopped it before it happened, and the police force in my day stopped it before it happened. Street marches, law and order was obeyed, unions were controlled, I was called a dictator but Queensland prospered, and people voted for me increasing numbers, in spite of the fact that some of those street marchers we put a thousand people or more in the lock-up. All I will say this, and I want this recorded and I want it broadcast: the four years that I was being investigated for nothing cost me an awful lot of money and a lot of property, but there’s nothing, absolutely nothing, there is nothing and I repeat that will ever restore my confidence in the justice system. After I saw that exercise and what happened to me, as I saw and experienced, sat in that dock and sat and was questioned and investigated, nothing, there’s absolutely nothing, and in that you ask many a policeman that was tossed out on the rubbish heap, same as I was, after a long period of being investigated and all the rest of it.]

    The bad old days, the problem is the LNP are less coherent than Joh. 🙂

  15. Diogenes,

    [I don’t know if there is any fire but there is an awful lot of smoke. These things develop a momentum of their own. People come out and jump on the band-wagon when the band-wagon looks solid enough.]

    Don’t get your hopes up too much. Queensland is no different to the other States regarding lobbying and ex-ministers picking up prime jobs in firms that seek Government favour.

    The issue being pushed almost hysterically with no foundation by Tanya Major is nothing but a disaffected group upset at proper process being observed without them being given special treatment which they perceive that the company namred was given. Bligh has to govern for all Queenslanders and would be derelict in her duties if special treatment was given to a minority group that was in conflict with the majority of the NQ Aboriginal groups.

    The Mariner issue I know well. Basically, 25 years ago he bought a bit of hilly, useless land about 10 klms north of the Laguna Keys resort and started off building a landing strip with an old battered grader hoping to secure development approval for a future International Airport to service aircraft traffic from Japan to the resort and the then proposed Japanese Retirement township.

    His main problem was that the Proserpine Airport is only about 5 klms away and is a well established facility with an airstrip capable of 747’s owned by the Whitsunday Council. The Council took him to court to prevent him from using his strip and won.

    He has told a few porky’s in relation to this issue. The Proserpine airport has the best base of any airstrip in the country, (natural, solid ironstone base) and the area where his strip is can often be hit by dangerous crosswinds and windshear. I would “never” travel on an aircraft using it.

    His other problem is that 50 miles to the south is Mackay airport, 5 klms to the north, Proserpine, 15 miles to the north east is Whitsunday airport (although small) and a further 5 miles east is Hamilton airport. That’s an awful lot of capacity to service a small clientele and as well the Feds won’t give it approval anyway.

    He took too much notice of the “build it and they will come” brigade and has been pushing the proverbial uphill for twenty five years to have his dream come true. Dreams and due process don’t always meet up. Others evaluations of the worth of something (especially something that you hope will make you very rich) can often be quite different to yours.

  16. Well I believe in telepathy. I actually thought about Judy this week and wondered why she had stopped posting.

    😥

  17. Let’s all hope that Judy is in a better place. She suffered in life more than most of us and we were blessed that she shared some of her passion and drive for justice with us. RIP Judy and condolences to your family.

    Tom.

  18. scorpio

    Didn’t Marinner try to buy the Proserpine Airport from the council, ignoring the fact that they did not own the land it was on, only the airport business?

    Hey fella – you wanna buy a bridge? 😛

  20. ruawake,

    I think he made an token offer. Basically saying that he would take all their business anyway, that the area only needed one airport, “his” and it was one way to get them out of the way in the promotion of his proposal as the answer to the regions prayers.

    Proserpine airport is a great facility and quite profitable to the Council and rate payers. They weren’t going to give it away and certainly weren’t going to see it rendered worthless by Mariner getting approval for his project.

    There can’t be two so close together anyway and Mariners is right on the southern glide path for aircraft landing at Proserpine.

  22. Very sad to hear about Judith’s passing. She was so great to chat with on this blog – so fiesty and headstrong.

    May she be at peace.

    Not sure if her family knew she was a frequenter here, but to them and her friends my deepest condolences.

    RIP

    I recall her being a huge Crows fan, so I’m glad the last match she would have seen/ heard, would have been them beaten the enemy Port Adelaide. I also recall her not being such a big cricket fan, which is probably just as well!

  23. [I also recall her not being such a big cricket fan, which is probably just as well!]
    Didn’t she once tell us all off (on William’s behalf) for commentating the cricket?

  24. [Didn’t she once tell us all off (on William’s behalf) for commentating the cricket?]

    Yep – I think during the South African tour?

    She did love the Crows though! (smart woman)

  25. [Yep – I think during the South African tour?]
    Yeah, it was either when Hughes (remember him?) was about to make his 2nd hundred and / or when North was about to make a hundred on debut.

  26. [The issue being pushed almost hysterically with no foundation by Tanya Major]
    Scorpio
    That’s the impression she gave on the bit of Q&A I watched too, loud voice talking over the top of Bligh who said a lot of what she was saying was not true. She didn’t want to listen and when Bligh asked her to give one example of the lies she was saying Bligh had told she couldn’t, instead started shouting at her about ‘you city people that don’t know nothing, coming up here telling us what to do’ etc
    Seems to like the media attention, with her stunts and limos too.
    [Cape York activists gatecrash Wilderness party]
    from article
    [“It is not so much about conservation. We are all for conservation but the bottom line is, there was no consent. The was no community engagement,” she said.]
    This was one of the things refuted by Bligh on Q&A when she said $74,000 had been spent over 6mths on consulting with the community

    Why the need for the stretch limos anyway? All show if you ask me.
    [But Wilderness Society member Anna Christie was not moved by the Cape York Aborigines’ message.

    “I am aware of the dispute between the Aboriginal people and the environmental movement up there particularly, but I have to say environmental sustainability comes first,” she said.

    Ms Christie says she has no sympathy for their argument that they want to be able to develop their land.

    They may not have won any friends on the night, but as the Cape York Aborigines climbed into the stretch limousines they hired for the occasion, they were claiming a victory.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/29/2639368.htm

  27. I was pleased for Judith that she was able to see her mob elected – it made a bright spot in her life. And she was like a mother hen for William about anyone blogging on the cricket.

  28. Polyquats mentioned Q&A twitter so I read it today – lots of tweets calling for Tanya Major to stop the hysterics and emotional outbursts. They didn’t do her any good – probably what Tony Jones had anticipated and thought would make good viewing.

    But it was difficult and embarrassing to watch – I think even Anna Bligh felt uncomfortable for Tanya.

    What’s with the limo hire!!

  36. I echo everyone eelse’s sentiments about Judith as well 🙁

    Re Tanya Major, she cites Noel Pearson as her Mentor – her latest outburst in similar to his modus operandi and does Inidigenous Australia a great dis-service.

  41. [Tanya Major, she cites Noel Pearson as her Mentor – her latest outburst in similar to his modus operandi and does Inidigenous Australia a great dis-service.]
    I don’t understand what she wants. Does she want indigenous people to have a veto over any activity that uses the rivers? Or is it that she doesn’t think any of the planning processes should apply to indigenous developments? Or is it both?

  42. Psephos – apparently the A-Gs report is now with McClelland – may be released next week.

    Haven’t heard about the AFP report yet.

  46. Ron was an intelligent and inciteful, if rabid, contributor here, and Ozpoll is is equally knowledgeable.

    No disrespect intended to either of them.

    But I have the doubt, always the doubt ….

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