Newspoll: 57-43

From Peter Brent at Mumble comes news that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 – up from 55-45 last time – with Labor’s primary vote on 46 per cent (up three), the Coalition on 38 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down two). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister rating has hit a new low of 16 per cent (down three), to Kevin Rudd’s 66 per cent (up two). Also featured is a question on the timing of an emissions trading scheme which finds 45 per cent believe the government should delay its legislation until “learning what other countries commit to at the Copenhagen climate conference in December”, compared with 41 per cent who believe legislation should proceed now. The Australian argues that the latter measure amounts to a 20 per cent drop in support for unilateral action since last September. However, the alternative answer in the earlier poll proposed that the scheme should proceed “only if other countries also introduce such schemes”, suggesting a longer delay than the less-than-five-months proposed by its counterpart in the current poll, and placing greater weight on the possibility a scheme might not proceed at all.

UPDATE 2: Peter Brent at Mumble has complete responses on the ETS questions.


• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on which party is better for handling various issues, which finds the Liberals have gone backwards since June 1; the government’s handling of relations with various countries; how safe respondents would feel visiting various countries; and Australia’s top security threat. More from Possum.

• The normally arcane topic of electoral reform has gone mainstream over the course of the past day’s news cycle, albeit in the questionable guise of optional voting rights for 16-year-olds. Special Minister of State Joe Ludwig has said the issue will be raised in the second of the government’s two green papers on electoral reform due later this year, the first of which dealt with campaign funding and expenditure issues and was published last December. The Greens are understandably enthusiastic, the Liberals equally understandably less so. Ben Raue spoke in favour on ABC News Radio earlier today, and further comments at The Tally Room.

• Advocates for retaining the existing Royal Adelaide Hospital site are rumoured to be seeking the requisite number of signatures (only 150 under the relatively lax provisions of the South Australian Electoral Act) to register their own political party in time for next year’s state election. Labor might like to recall that the two surprise defeats that cost their Western Australian counterparts government last year, Mount Lawley and Morley, were respectively in close and reasonably close proximity of Royal Perth Hospital, where a similar controversy was unfolding. Equivalent electorates in South Australia might be Adelaide (margin 10.2 per cent, but traditionally a swinging seat) and Norwood (4.2 per cent).

AAP reports that Labor is seeking a candidate with “green credentials” – a “Kerryn Phelps-style figure”, to be precise – to take on Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth.

• After being cleared last week on a rape charge, Victorian Northern Metropolitan Labor MLC Theo Theophanous has made life easier for his party by announcing he will quit politics at next year’s election.

• The Geelong Advertiser reports that two candidates have emerged for Liberal preselection in South Barwon, which Labor’s Michael Crutchfield gained in the 2002 landslide and retained by 2.4 per cent in 2006, despite hostile press from the aforementioned Advertiser. The candidates are Ron Humphrey, who lost his Surf Coast Shire Council seat at last year’s elections and was an unsuccessful contestant for preselection in 2006, and Andrew Katos, who represents Deakin ward on Greater Geelong City Council.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee is conducting an inquiry into last year’s Kororoit by-election, after the Electoral Commission’s report expressed concern that no action could be taken against an ALP pamphlet which claimed a vote for independent candidate Les Twentyman was “a vote for the Liberals”. For what it’s worth, I have my doubts as to whether it’s feasible or desirable to regulate election rhetoric in the manner proposed.

• The Launceston Examiner reports that school teacher Rob Soward has lost Labor’s game of musical chairs in Bass, where seven candidates were chasing six positions on the ticket for next year’s state election. The lucky winners were incumbent Michelle O’Byrne, former member Kathryn Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean and North Tasmanian Development consultant Michelle Cripps.

• Legendary Clerk of the Senate Harry Evans, retiring after 40 years, reviews the evolution of parliament during his tenure in an article for Crikey.

• A self-explanatory new book entitled Australia: The State of Democracy, edited by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin for the Democratic Audit of Australia, is now available through Federation Press. The introduction can be read here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. you idiot, Dario!

    Reminds me of the folklore name of the Gaudrian, UK. Worthy paper, but..

    such strangulated prose, rather like mine, I suspect. As indicated by Frank, some time ago. Star Wars or somefink.

    And, polyquats, laud help me if I have been misled by the media. In fact I had a look at 9’s website, no mention.

  2. [Geez, how long ago does that feel now.]
    They should’ve dropped Hussey, moved Johnson to 7 and played Clark at 9.

  3. I found Ron much more inciteful than insightful, I must say. He certainly incited me.

    The Guardian was the first paper on Fleet Street in invest in computerised typsetting, which led to a proliferation of typos until they ironed the bugs out of the system. Private Eye ran a weekly column of Guardian bloopers, and christened them The Grauniad, a name which stuck.

  4. [And, polyquats, laud help me if I have been misled by the media. In fact I had a look at 9’s website, no mention.]

    Neither on Adelaide Now, nor the ABC and Yahoo7, but I would not be surprised if it’s only being mentioned by Nine because of her long association with the network via A Current Affair.

  5. Crikey – I had a phone call about 1/2 hr ago from SA friends who live up the road and they told me about it. Heard it or saw it on their news there and rang just after you mentioned it here.

  6. vera @1076 Posted

    The issue being pushed almost hysterically with no foundation by Tanya Major

    I was almost finished a response when one blog with interesting info crashed my firefox.

    Currently, seems DM is in serious financial trouble: “Laguna to go under the Hammer?”

    ONE of Australia’s most controversial developers, David Marriner, is expected to launch an eleventh hour bid to keep the spectacular Laguna Quays, 50km south of Airlie Beach.

    Mackay City Council has threatened to auction the resort over $2 million in unpaid rates while the Australian Tax Office is investigating a number of companies associated with the resort with a view to winding them up.

    The ATO is simultaneously chasing $5.5m in unpaid taxes from another of his companies, Princess Theatre Pty Ltd, an umbrella group including five of Melbourne’s most prestigious theatres …

    Try Googling David Marriner Laguna Keys airport problems protests and ignore last couple of days’ meja reports. There’s enough there, from old articles in The Age to blogs, from Howard’s 2nd term to today … through secret deals, public protests, Council refusals, State refusals … But Iseekgolf’s blog probably explains why he’s making a big deal of it now.

    This bloke thinks he’s still in Joh’s & Russ Hinze’s Queensland, with a government that can’t wait to meet his demands re airports & whatever … His secret deals re his airport, with Councillors who didn’t have the right to deal, go back to the beginning of the decade. He wants to build his airport & close down the existing ones, he goes ahead & builds it, then raises hell when everyone from irate locals to the government says “No!”

    Back in the old days, DM would have gotten his way & to hell with Proserpine, locals & their opinions – Joh could always gerrymander them away. Maybe DM hoped the LNP would do a Joh & Russ for him, and Anna ruined that!

  7. [OzPol – is Marriner the bloke that Tanya Major thinks has been hard done by?]
    No, he is the guy who said companies need lobbyists and have to pay QLD Labor hundreds of thousands if they are to have any chance of getting government contracts.

  8. I just want to agree with the Bludgers about JB. She was a truly inspirational lady, whose life was a living hell from which she never escaped. To maintain her humanity and courage while living a nightmare showed how humble people often contain greatness.

    May she rest in peace . 🙁

    I’ll collect all your thoughts for her on a card to go with a white rose wreath.

  9. Fulvio Sammut @ 1084 Posted

    Ron brushed up his grammar, bought a dictionary and spell checker, and came back as Ozpoll tragic.

    Nyaah! I’m not Ron. Before Possum, PB etc moved here, I used to post on several of them occasionally – more than occasionally around the election – but from other computers as well, and not all with the same ID. When Y’all moved to Crikey, & political life livened up (Luved utegate!) I needed one consistent ID & chose what one mob of students called me in a former life. It’s a family trait; was before 1859 when a couple made it into the new parliament; we also did mayors , Fed Execs, ACTU reps, etc (& yes, we even have Libs & Greens) tho the current GenXs& Ys are more into careers, money, travel & must haves.

  10. Dio, that’s brilliant. Is there a way that I can contribute? I have a paypal account that I can use. If you are on paypal I can certainly send you a few dollars that way. If it is possible please email me. Mr Billbowie can send you my email.


  11. Belated I know, but wish to add that I thought Judith a real human, against all odds, trooper extraordinaire accolade to her passing.

  12. Am I the only one sad to see Saul Eslake move on from ANZ?

    He is moving on to a think tank. Hopefully Lateline still gets him on from time to time.

    Who else will provide us with boffinish acronyms such as when he called the 2nd stimulus package the T.R.A.P. (Technical Recession Avoidance Package)?

    I guess that old economista Chris Richardson will have to take over the role as Lateline’s silver haired big head.

  13. Thanks BH & Fulvio. When it comes to history, I’m beyond tragic.

    ShowsOn & BH: I may have the Tanya Major’s wrong rant – or wrong part of a rant. Seems, in her recent/current opinion, it’s impossible that anything about Queensland, Anna Bligh, The Cape, you name it could possibly not be worth a rant – the LNP possibly excepted. I watched only part of Q&A – can’t stand the smug … er… compere.

    Tried the cricket, lost 2 wickets in 2 balls, turned off. Turned on later, Oz doing well … for about 2 balls & then …. I promise not to watch it in real time again!

  14. Labor’s commitment to withdraw our military from Iraq is one of the two most important reasons I supported Rudd. However, the great relief I would feel today is undermined by the sadness of our troop escalation for that other insane civil war in Afghanistan.

    Fighting against the Pashtun nation (including the Taliban) who make up 40% of the Afghan population in order to prop up Kabul’s corrupt government of Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek ethnic groups will only end when the Pashtun regain a share of the power. Or if we finally learn that we’ve got no business keeping our young men and women in harm’s way there just to bootlick the Yanks and NATO.

  15. [Seems, in her recent/current opinion, it’s impossible that anything about Queensland, Anna Bligh, The Cape, you name it could possibly not be worth a rant]
    She talked for perhaps 5 minutes about the issue on Q&A last night, yet I still don’t know what she wants.

    If she thinks Aboriginal communities should be able to pursue any development they like and have a veto over non-Aboriginal development, then she is in dreamland. She refused to accept that the laws are a genuine attempt by the government to balance the contradictory interests between preservation and economic development. She mentioned conservation once, then spent the rest of her time saying that there needs to be more development.

  16. I’ve just placed Judy Barnes, back-tracked a little, and remembered. Indeed a courageous, inspiring person; passionate but composed.

    And may there be no moaning of the bar,
    When I put out to sea.

    But such a tide as moving seems asleep,
    Too full for sound and foam,
    When that which drew from out the boundless deep
    Turns again home!

    (Alfred Tennyson)

  17. [Or if we finally learn that we’ve got no business keeping our young men and women in harm’s way there just to bootlick the Yanks and NATO.]
    Surely if we leave then the Taliban will take over again, and then it will be back to them blowing up schools just because girls attend them.

  18. Vale Judith. Rest in peace.

    I only saw a little of the personal tragedy which she endured. It takes real courage to live through such tragedy. I can only hope that she gained some enjoyment from her interactions here. As always, death puts things into perspective.

  19. [I cannot remember the last time Chris Richardson got an economic forecast correct.]
    He was one of the first to argue that the 2007 budget would require massive interest rate increases in order to curb inflation.

  20. I’m very sad to hear about Judith. I only knew her for a bit but she was insightful, polite and funny. And also obviously very strong to deal with what she had to.

  21. This is a copy of my e-mail to Crikey Whitey.

    [I was disturbed to see your post on PB saying that Judith had passed away.

    Do you know any details as to her death? It is a trajic loss to her family and all her PB friends who, like me came to develop a sincere fondness for Judy and her lively posts.

    I would appreciate anything you might be able ro advise me on regarding it and where we might be able to send a condolence card to.]

    Dio, if you are able to do so, could you please add my condolences to your card.

  22. I’m very sad to hear about Judith Barnes and my thoughts are with her family and her friends.

    Thank you, Diogenes, for thinking of white roses for her.


  23. Wkat is “tabled”?

    Unsually, an Auditor’s report is tabled afte QT. Albo: ” I presenet the report of the Auditor-General…”

    in every case, before the report is tabled, the affected parties have a right of reply and that reply is recorded in the published reply.

    What the “offended” parties say or do not say is a good indicadion of the wenght of the Auditor’s conclusions.

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