Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey (the accompanying spiel says telephone, but I believe this is a mistake) was conducted over the previous two weekends, and it shows no change worth mentioning on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57.5-42.5. Both major parties have gained on the primary vote, Labor up 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent and the Coalition up 2.5 per cent to 37.5 per cent. These gains are at the expense of the Greens, down from 11.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Other news:

• The numbers in Western Australia’s finely balanced Legislative Assembly have changed for the second time in as many months following North West MP Vince Catania’s shock defection from Labor to the Nationals. Labor now has 26 seats out of 59 after the double blow of the Catania defection and the Fremantle by-election, while the Nationals are up from four to five – the same as they had in the last parliament, before one-vote one-value was introduced (at which time they had one member in the upper house, compared with their current five). The Liberals remain on 24, with the Greens on one and three independents. The influence of the latter has accordingly diminished, as the governing parties are now only one short of a majority in their own right. Catania’s defection has inevitably been interpreted as a blow for Labor leader Eric Ripper and another triumph for all-conquering Nationals leader Brendon Grylls. Against the latter interpretation must be weighed the fact that the Nationals have chosen to associate themselves with a man responsible for one of the most grotesque acts of disloyalty in Australia’s recent political history.

• The big loser from the proposed Queensland federal electoral boundaries published yesterday is up-and-coming Liberal MP Peter Dutton, whose electorate of Dickson is set to exchange urban hinterland areas for a Labor-voting chunk of suburbia around Kallangur. Antony Green, who writes at length on the curse of Dickson, calculates that Dutton’s existing margin of 0.1 per cent has turned into a notional Labor margin of 1.3 per cent. Peter Lindsay’s Townsville-based seat of Herbert has also crossed the divide, from 0.2 per cent Liberal to 0.4 per cent Labor. The Courier-Mail reports that one early hopeful for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat slated to be called Wright (although AAP reports the name might suffer the same fate as it did the last time it was suggested) is Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, who attracted a fair bit of attention as the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and now hopes to get the nod from the Liberal National Party. Ban was more recently in the news when it emerged she had undergone an alarming sounding surgical procedure to increase the length of her legs.

• Former Peter Costello staffer Kelly O’Dwyer now looks all but certain to replace her old boss as Liberal candidate for Higgins after the withdrawal of her main rival, Tim Wilson. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that Wilson “is believed to have pulled out to maintain his focus on advocacy in free trade and climate change through the IPA”. Nominations close next week.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Philip Ruddock is “almost certain to be challenged for preselection for his safe seat of Berowra”. His likely challenger is former Young Liberals president Noel McCoy, with the local numbers believed to be evenly poised. Another source quoted by Coorey says McCoy might challenge Bill Heffernan’s Senate position if unsuccessful in Berowra. The Herald’s Mark Davis reports Heffernan’s position is in jeopardy in any case as he has earned the displeasure of the leadership of the “religious right”.

• Phillip Coorey further provides a list of possible candidates to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield in addition to the oft-mentioned Arthur Sinodinos and Tom Switzer: Julian Leeser, Paul Fletcher and David Coleman.

• The West Australian reports that Tangney MP Dennis Jensen’s pleas to today’s Liberal Party state council meeting for his preselection defeat by Glenn Piggott to be overturned “will fall on deaf ears”, and that he is likely to run as an independent. UPDATE: The West Australian reports that the state council has in fact decided to hear submissions from each of the three candidates (which interestingly keeps Libby Lyons in the loop) over the coming weeks before reaching a final decision.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports that Mia Handshin, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt at the 2007 federal election, is a shoo-in to contest the seat again if she wishes to do so, having locked in the support of Senator and Right faction powerbroker Don Farrell. Handshin says she is “still very carefully considering”. The front-runner for Labor preselection in Boothby is Annabel Digance, a former nurse and member of the SA Water Board.

• Labor’s member for Ivanhoe in Victoria, Craig Langdon, has been defeated for preselection by Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and step-son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. Langdon apparently finished one vote behind his Labor Unity colleague after the votes of the party’s Public Office Selection Committee were added to those from local branches, the latter of which I’m told favoured Langdon 71 votes to 46.

• Following the blunt dismissal of a rape charge against him in Melbourne Magistrates Court, it remains unclear if Victorian Labor MP Theo Theophanous will seek to retain preselection for his upper house region of Northern Metropolitan. Not surprisingly, The Age reports that “senior party figures – including supporters of Mr Theophanous – hope he decides to quit politics and give Mr Brumby ‘clear air’ in the lead-up to next year’s election”. Nonetheless, Theophanous has re-nominated for his position. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the fight to replace Theophanous is between “forces aligned with federal Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, who want Treasury official Vasko Nastevski, and those aligned with federal parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten, who want plumbers’ union official Nathan Murphy”.

• Wallace further reports that John Brumby is moving to protect Eastern Metropolitan MLC Shaun Leane from Electrical Trades Union assistant secretary Howard Worthing. Worthing’s challenge is said to be supported by ETU secretary Dean Mighell, who was expelled from the ALP after emerging as a political liability in the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, along with a “small pocket of the Right”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that federal Liberal Hume MP Alby Schultz has “lost the battle to convince his party to field a candidate in the southeast NSW state seat of Monaro”. This follows an agreement to avoid three-cornered contests which the Liberals’ state executive signed off on last Friday, which also gives the Nationals free rein in the independent-held seats of Tamworth and Dubbo and Labor-held Bathurst. For their part, the Liberals will contest Water Minister Phil Costa’s marginal outer Sydney seat of Wollondilly and get the ninth position on the upper house ticket, which looks highly winnable on current form. The decision by the party’s state council to refer the matter to the executive was behind Schultz’s party-room altercation with Aston MP Chris Pearce.

UPDATE: CityBlue in comments notes that Jane Garrett has won the Labor preselection in Brunswick, as expected, and that Christine Campbell fended off a challenge from Joe Italiano in Pascoe Vale.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. [But you just get sick of banging your head on a brick wall with bureaucrats who are so stupid, short-sighted and obsessed with their own career that you just lose interest.]
    This sounds like a wonderful reason for a federal take over so that many of these bureaucrats get reassigned by the federal government to completely different jobs.

  4. [Promo for 7 News on the other hand (while I was watching Deal or no Deal) said new health report had pensioners in fear of losing their homes.]

    Hmm, the Perth edition had the Mark Reilly story and there was no mention of Pensioners losing homes, unless they had a local angle.

  5. [Promo for 7 News on the other hand (while I was watching Deal or no Deal) said new health report had pensioners in fear of losing their homes.]

    I read that today. Couldn’t work it out.

    [In a controversial move, the blueprint recommends considering accommodation bonds as part of a move to allow aged care providers to raise extra revenue.

    This has again raised the spectre of elderly people having to sell their family home in order to gain access to a high-care aged facility.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25839322-5006301,00.html

  6. [As usual, he does not miss.]
    [Not all of Labor’s marginal seat MPs are gum-chewing sluggards like Amanda Rishworth]
    ? She won a must win marginal seat, maybe the Liberals need some Amanda Rishworths of their own?

  7. Shows On,

    As you well know Elder mentioned Belinda Neal in the same sentence.

    Agree that Rishworth did well to win her marginal seat. Not sure how much she is setting the Federal parliament on fire atm.

    Perhaps you can enlighten us.

  8. [This has again raised the spectre of elderly people having to sell their family home in order to gain access to a high-care aged facility.]

    But isn’t that already the case if you want to move into a Nursing Home ?

  9. I didn’t watch 7 news to find out but had a look on their website and all I could find was Mark Reillys news report. Nothing there except,, wait for it…
    Malcolm in a leather apron feeling bunches of bananas LOL made my night 😀
    Well that and those Mighty Rabbitohs winning 😀

  10. Victoria has a nurses-in-schools program (which I think might be a result of a policy I once wrote!). The nurses (mostly from the Community Health clinics) teach sex ed and provide confidential advice.

    Much better quality of teaching on these matters than we used to have, where sex ed was usually just an add on in Year 7.

    As for ‘where can we get the extra nurses’, Diog, Victoria very successfully targetted those nurses who left the system years ago (whom you have also referred to), providing them with retraining and other incentives.

    BTW, back on the board of my local hospital (which is actually a number of hospitals and aged care facilities operating under the one umbrella) so I’ll be pontificating on matters to do with health as if I know what I’m talking about.

  11. [This has again raised the spectre of elderly people having to sell their family home in order to gain access to a high-care aged facility.]
    Heaven forbid that we should spend the kid’s inheritance on caring for the parents.

  13. [As you well know Elder mentioned Belinda Neal in the same sentence.]
    I wasn’t making any reflection on his comments regarding Belinda Neal.
    [Agree that Rishworth did well to win her marginal seat. Not sure how much she is setting the Federal parliament on fire atm.]
    “gum-chewing sluggards” to me doesn’t seem to be simply a description of her parliamentary performance, it seems to be asserting that she is somehow stupid, which I find curious considering she is a psychologist.

  15. Vera,
    If you read the conditions for commenting on Rudd’s blog, it might become obvious. If you do try, you will probably be breached.

  16. Shows On,

    Oh come now. Let’s not get overly sensitive.

    Abbott’s a Rhode scholar. Turnbull is an extremely successful lawyer and businessman. There are other Libs that are PHDs and successes in other lifes.

    Doesn’t stop the riffraff on PB routinely calling them idiots and fools.

    Elder’s article is an opinion piece. Disregard the bits you don’t like.

  18. [Doesn’t stop the riffraff on PB routinely calling them idiots and fools.]
    Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck . . .

    There used to be a sign in our common room “A turkey with a degree is still a turkey”.

  19. Thank polyquats. This explains it, anything posted after 5pm is’nt processed until the next day. Blog didn’t start until 4.30pm
    [Moderation and publication of comments will take place during business hours, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm. While users may submit comments at any time, comments will only be processed and posted during business hours. We undertake to moderate all posts within 24 hours of receipt.]

  20. polyquats,

    That’s twice in one day that someone has quoted that at me.

    I must be going quackers.

  22. [Moderation and publication of comments will take place during business hours, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm. While users may submit comments at any time, comments will only be processed and posted during business hours. We undertake to moderate all posts within 24 hours of receipt.]

    If the Moderators were approving posts outside of working hours you would then get the predictable story about St Kev working his staff too hard etc.

  23. Gittins devastates Rudd:

    [It was a combination of the sensible and the self-serving, marred by its partisanship. Rudd nowhere acknowledges the role of his Liberal predecessors in pursuing the policies that left us so well placed in the global crisis.

    It was the Libs who formalised the Reserve Bank’s independence and put up with its politically inopportune rate rises.

    Rudd quotes the International Monetary Fund’s praise for our medium-term fiscal strategy, but fails to acknowledge that it was formulated by, and inherited from, his predecessors.

    He fails to admit that the relatively low and unconcerning levels of public debt in prospect are the product of his predecessors’ budget surpluses and zero net debt.

    The Libs also deserve credit for the good shape our banks are in. It was they who reformed our prudential supervision system, putting it in the hands of a single, well-armed regulator, and they who persisted with the Four Pillars policy that did so much to keep our banks out of trouble.

    The notion that the Libs could be fairly described as “neo-liberal free-market fundamentalists” is laughable.

    And yet Rudd boasts about the success of the Hawke-Keating governments’ micro-economic reforms and promises more reforms of his own. Micro-economic reform and neo-liberal mean the same thing. As an ideological warrior, this guy’s a phoney.

    …

    The best part of the essay should have been his “sustainable economic recovery strategy”: “Australia will need to work smarter and harder to achieve better national growth in a weaker global environment.” We therefore need to implement a “global competitiveness agenda” that “reinvigorates the drivers of productivity growth”.

    Ah, now you’re talking. “The reform needed to return to a higher productivity path is not easy,” but the Government has targeted five key areas. First is regulation and competition reform (Rudd’s reform agenda under the Council of Australian Governments; oh, that’s all.)

    Next is infrastructure (nothing new here), innovation (the National Broadband Network “will arguably be the single greatest multiplier of productivity growth”; I certainly hope it isn’t the best we can do), skills (nothing new) and tax reform (waiting for the Henry report).

    Then comes the “broader reform agenda”: retirement income policy (waiting for Henry), health and ageing (may do something in response to the imminent report) and climate change and water (nothing new).

    Oh dear; 18 months ago climate change was the greatest social, economic and moral challenge of the age, now it’s last on the reform list, lumped in with water.

    How Rudd’s enthusiasm wanes when decisions really do get tough.]

    http://business.theage.com.au/business/tough-talking-pm-is-all-spin-20090726-dxgo.html?page=-1

  25. [Elder’s article is an opinion piece. Disregard the bits you don’t like.]
    You can’t see the complete contradiction in it? On the one hand he thinks the Liberals need people like Tuckey cleaned out and replaced with young smart operators, then on the other hand he laments the fact Labor ran a 29 year old female psychologist in a must-win marginal seat that she won easily?
    [Shows On @ 499, that was just fantastic. Thank you .]
    When Voyager 1 took that photo it was ‘just’ 6 billion KM from Earth, it is now about 16.3 billion KM from Earth (travelling at about 17 KM/s relative to the sun), and will leave our solar system in about 2015. The nuclear power supply will keep it working until at least 2025.
    http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/weekly-reports/

  27. [Gittins devastates Rudd:]
    Wonderful, so now that Gittins has turned into your hitman, that means you must now support the Government’s stimulus package, which Gittins repeatedly defended:

    Here:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/rudd-stimulus-hits-the-sweet-spot-20090717-do7g.html
    Here:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/stimulus-strategy-sorted-down-to-a-t-20090529-bq7g.html
    Here:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/big-deficit-is-a-good-step-for-more-jobs-20090515-b61k.html
    Here:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/clashing-ideologies-behind-the-global-financial-crisis-20090315-8ywj.html
    Here:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/chomping-through-debt-mountain-20090308-8seh.html
    Here:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/stimulus-is-three-ts-and-sympathy-20090206-801i.html

  28. Andrew Elder is obviously another blogger who thinks ignorant personal abuse is (a) funny and (b) a substitute for intelligent comment. I happen to know Amanda Rishworth, and she is a very likeable, witty and intelligent person, and also a hardworking local member. She needs to be in a seat which has defeated every member who has ever held it, and usually after not long.

  29. ShowsOn,

    I did say he’s a Liberal leaning supporter. He might have his reasons for disliking Rishworth or it could be blind partisan hatred. I have no idea.

    However, I am sure Amanda has copped worse character assessments to date and would be totally unfazed.

    There is other stuff in the post which I’m sure you can enjoy given you are selective with your tolerance of personal criticism of politicians.

  30. [Oh yes I’m sure Rudd will be devastated. ]
    I can’t think of any economics writer that has defended the Government’s stimulus policies as much as Gittins. So G.P. recruiting Gittins as his economics hitman is quite amusing.

  31. No 630

    ShowsOn, unlike Labor supporters, I reserve the right to exercise independent thought, even if it differs to those who I support.

  33. ShowsOn, youve got it wrong. Dont you realise that commentators opinions only count when they are criticising Rudd. Please lift your gamr

  34. GP,

    So are you a Wilson Tuckey, a Tony Abbott or a Dean Jensen sort of Liberal. They all seem to exercise independant thought from the rest of the Liberal Party.

  35. Kingston has the distinction of having elected four Liberal “oncers” – Handby (1949-51), Brownbill (1966-69), Jeanes (1996-98) and Richardson (2004-07). I can’t think of another seat that can match that.

  37. [ShowsOn, unlike Labor supporters, I reserve the right to exercise independent thought, even if it differs to those who I support.]
    It’s ridiculous to say no Labor supporters use independent judgement when many on this forum have attitudes that vary from the government’s positions.
    [Also, I’m not against stimulus, although I am against reckless cash splashes.]
    We appreciate that your views on stimulus have changed considerably since the start of the year. Initially you proposed that the government should do absolutely nothing, because – according to you – any government stimulus would ultimately just make a recession deeper and last longer. It is good to see you no longer hold that position, and all you really disagree on is the $900 payments (which of course is what stopped us from going into technical recession).

  42. [Tony Abbott.]
    But I thought you actually believe in climate change? Abbott is on The 7:30 Report tonight claiming that there isn’t a scientific consensus, even though 300 scientists from around the world all signed off on the IPCC report! Is there another scientific report where 300 scientists all agreed on the exactly the same text? If that doesn’t count as consensus, then no such thing exists, so we may as well all go back to living in caves.

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