Newspoll: 57-43

From Peter Brent at Mumble comes news that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 – up from 55-45 last time – with Labor’s primary vote on 46 per cent (up three), the Coalition on 38 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down two). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian reports Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred prime minister rating has hit a new low of 16 per cent (down three), to Kevin Rudd’s 66 per cent (up two). Also featured is a question on the timing of an emissions trading scheme which finds 45 per cent believe the government should delay its legislation until “learning what other countries commit to at the Copenhagen climate conference in December”, compared with 41 per cent who believe legislation should proceed now. The Australian argues that the latter measure amounts to a 20 per cent drop in support for unilateral action since last September. However, the alternative answer in the earlier poll proposed that the scheme should proceed “only if other countries also introduce such schemes”, suggesting a longer delay than the less-than-five-months proposed by its counterpart in the current poll, and placing greater weight on the possibility a scheme might not proceed at all.

UPDATE 2: Peter Brent at Mumble has complete responses on the ETS questions.

Elsewhere:

• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on which party is better for handling various issues, which finds the Liberals have gone backwards since June 1; the government’s handling of relations with various countries; how safe respondents would feel visiting various countries; and Australia’s top security threat. More from Possum.

• The normally arcane topic of electoral reform has gone mainstream over the course of the past day’s news cycle, albeit in the questionable guise of optional voting rights for 16-year-olds. Special Minister of State Joe Ludwig has said the issue will be raised in the second of the government’s two green papers on electoral reform due later this year, the first of which dealt with campaign funding and expenditure issues and was published last December. The Greens are understandably enthusiastic, the Liberals equally understandably less so. Ben Raue spoke in favour on ABC News Radio earlier today, and further comments at The Tally Room.

• Advocates for retaining the existing Royal Adelaide Hospital site are rumoured to be seeking the requisite number of signatures (only 150 under the relatively lax provisions of the South Australian Electoral Act) to register their own political party in time for next year’s state election. Labor might like to recall that the two surprise defeats that cost their Western Australian counterparts government last year, Mount Lawley and Morley, were respectively in close and reasonably close proximity of Royal Perth Hospital, where a similar controversy was unfolding. Equivalent electorates in South Australia might be Adelaide (margin 10.2 per cent, but traditionally a swinging seat) and Norwood (4.2 per cent).

• AAP reports that Labor is seeking a candidate with “green credentials” – a “Kerryn Phelps-style figure”, to be precise – to take on Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth.

• After being cleared last week on a rape charge, Victorian Northern Metropolitan Labor MLC Theo Theophanous has made life easier for his party by announcing he will quit politics at next year’s election.

• The Geelong Advertiser reports that two candidates have emerged for Liberal preselection in South Barwon, which Labor’s Michael Crutchfield gained in the 2002 landslide and retained by 2.4 per cent in 2006, despite hostile press from the aforementioned Advertiser. The candidates are Ron Humphrey, who lost his Surf Coast Shire Council seat at last year’s elections and was an unsuccessful contestant for preselection in 2006, and Andrew Katos, who represents Deakin ward on Greater Geelong City Council.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee is conducting an inquiry into last year’s Kororoit by-election, after the Electoral Commission’s report expressed concern that no action could be taken against an ALP pamphlet which claimed a vote for independent candidate Les Twentyman was “a vote for the Liberals”. For what it’s worth, I have my doubts as to whether it’s feasible or desirable to regulate election rhetoric in the manner proposed.

• The Launceston Examiner reports that school teacher Rob Soward has lost Labor’s game of musical chairs in Bass, where seven candidates were chasing six positions on the ticket for next year’s state election. The lucky winners were incumbent Michelle O’Byrne, former member Kathryn Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean and North Tasmanian Development consultant Michelle Cripps.

• Legendary Clerk of the Senate Harry Evans, retiring after 40 years, reviews the evolution of parliament during his tenure in an article for Crikey.

• A self-explanatory new book entitled Australia: The State of Democracy, edited by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin for the Democratic Audit of Australia, is now available through Federation Press. The introduction can be read here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

Comments Page 2 of 23
1 2 3 … 23

  1. No 43

    Abbott is completely correct on the issue of pension ages. We need to be serious on the spiralling cost of welfare in this country.

  2. [Abbott is completely correct on the issue of pension ages. We need to be serious on the spiralling cost of welfare in this country.]
    OK, I propose that the semi-public health insurance industry stop receiving welfare handouts from tax payers.

  6. [Abbott is completely correct on the issue of pension ages. We need to be serious on the spiralling cost of welfare in this country.]

    Is that what you said when Rudd raised it to 67?

  7. Fantastic, Frank, You not only found it but could post it. Me and himself indoors are inclined to shriek this on occasions such as on the occasion of the defeat of the *opponents*. We’re a bit sad about this.

  10. No 56

    Yes. In fact, I criticised Rudd for couching his plan as a “tough” decision, when it’s something that won’t occur for 10 years.

  15. HSO,

    You come here for a serious discussion and all the Libs want to do is take their clothers off.

    Maybe they need to create a Liberal swmsuit calendar. Bronny Bishop in neck to ankle suit. Joe Hockey doing a bomb off the the Harbour Bridge. Malcolm Turnbull diving off the Gap hole.

  16. [Yes. In fact, I criticised Rudd for couching his plan as a “tough” decision,]
    The federal government increasing the Medicare levy by 0.75% in order to fund a universal dental care scheme would be a tough decision. Unfortunately Turnbull opposed it today without even knowing the details.

  18. [ Bronny Bishop in neck to ankle suit. Joe Hockey doing a bomb off the the Harbour Bridge. Malcolm Turnbull diving off the Gap hole.]

    Barnaby frolicking in some sheepdip,Tuckey doing backstroke in the local sewer,Heffernan diving into a pit of bile…..

  23. [The federal government increasing the Medicare levy by 0.75% in order to fund a universal dental care scheme would be a tough decision. Unfortunately Turnbull opposed it today without even knowing the details]

    Could an alternative funding source/s be found.

    eg
    increase GST
    PPP dental clinics
    some form of state tax

    just wondering?

  26. [just wondering?]
    Of course. In fact most money for health is just taken out of general revenue because the Medicare levy and surcharge have become completely inadequate compared to the increasing costs of health.

    But surely a major reform of the system would want to both rein in costs, and provide a firmer funding basis, i.e. one that grows directly as employment and incomes grow. The easiest way to do that is to increase the Medicare levy a bit, rather than relying purely on income and other taxes.

  27. [The easiest way to do that is to increase the Medicare levy a bit, rather than relying purely on income and other taxes.]

    I thought one of the problms with the levy was higher income peoples tax minimisation activities,thereby disproportionately placing the burden on the less well off.

    (as a percentage of their income).

    A tax ,say on high sugar products/drinks would be similair to cigs, and would have ‘deterrent effect’

  28. [A tax ,say on high sugar products/drinks would be similair to cigs, and would have ‘deterrent effect’]
    But wouldn’t this just add complication by adding a tax onto the GST?

    The Medicare Levy would be pretty hard to evade because by definition, everyone pays it.

  30. [The Medicare Levy would be pretty hard to evade because by definition, everyone pays it.]

    People on the DSP and other benefits don’t pay the Medicare Levy, I know I don’t.

  31. 47

    The Medicare levy is a tax paid on income tax, over a certain threshold, that is subject to normal income tax. I believe that old age pensions and other such welfare payments are not taxed. The pensioners will be some of the main beneficiaries of a proper scheme. Bring on Medicare`s extension to dentistry.

  32. [But wouldn’t this just add complication by adding a tax onto the GST?]

    I was more thinking of the cigs and alcohol type impost.
    ie a user pays system.

  33. 78

    People who don`t pay any tax, earn under certain thresholds (increased by the current government after Senate argy-bargy) or have private health insurance don`t pay the Medicare levy. The Medicare levy is Howard scheme to push the middle classes into private health insurance and should be scrapped.

  34. I guess I should’ve qualified by saying all people who are employed pay the Medicare levy. Some commonwealth payments are taxable, such as Youth Allowance.

  36. Sugar, salt, various oils and fat products as well as some other over-consumed foods should be taxes with excises like alcohol, tobacco and various fuels are.

  37. [The Medicare levy is Howard scheme to push the middle classes into private health insurance and should be scrapped.]
    I think you are referring to the Medicare Levy surcharge.

    Everyone who has earned taxable income pays the Medicare Levy of 1.5%. Some people earn so little income that their offsets cancel out both the income tax and the Medicare Levy. However, everyone who is employed pays the Medicare Levy.

    This is what makes Medicare a universal system, everyone pays, so everyone gets coverage. 1.5% of a low income works out to be less dollars than 1.5% of a high income, but everyone pays the same percentage.

    People who earn more than $75,000 for an individual, or $150,000 for a couple that don’t have private health insurance must pay the Medicare Levy Surcharge which is another 1% on top of the 1.5%.

  40. A “Woe is Me Story by Mrs Catania about being a “Political widow”, which is quite disingeneous as she is not the first, nor last Poltical Spouse to deal with this.

    [Mrs Ramsay Catania was particularly offended by Mr Ripper’s accusations that her husband did not spend enough time in his electorate.

    She was “basically a single mother” because her husband was away so much with work commitments. The couple, who will celebrate their first wedding anniversary tomorrow, have homes in Carnarvon and East Victoria Park.

    “When Parliament’s sitting, he is in Perth but the hours are very unfriendly so by the time he gets home, Nicholas is in bed and I’m in bed,” she said.

    “When Parliament is sitting, he’s in Perth but we don’t see him. When Parliament’s not sitting, he’s in the electorate. We travel with him as much as we can and as much as is feasible.”]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=146&ContentID=157978

  41. [er, no]
    That isn’t totally right, but think of the 30% private health insurance rebate, effectively what that does is give people who have private health insurance some of their Medicare levy back. Which in my opinion is wrong. People should be free to get private health insurance if they like, but they shouldn’t be able to opt out of paying the Medicare levy.

  44. Silly Laborites. Turnbull is not about to be booted out, there is no alternative, he will lead the coalition to defeat at the next election.

  45. [but think of the 30% private health insurance rebate, effectively what that does is give people who have private health insurance some of their Medicare levy back. Which in my opinion is wrong]

    [I thought one of the problms with the levy was higher income peoples tax minimisation activities,thereby disproportionately placing the burden on the less well off.]

    The levy needs to be better defined, and not open to abuse.

  46. [Silly Laborites. Turnbull is not about to be booted out, there is no alternative, he will lead the coalition to defeat at the next election.]

    Shhshh Bob

    The rest of us are talking about real world problems
    🙂

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 23
1 2 3 … 23