Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey (the accompanying spiel says telephone, but I believe this is a mistake) was conducted over the previous two weekends, and it shows no change worth mentioning on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57.5-42.5. Both major parties have gained on the primary vote, Labor up 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent and the Coalition up 2.5 per cent to 37.5 per cent. These gains are at the expense of the Greens, down from 11.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Other news:

• The numbers in Western Australia’s finely balanced Legislative Assembly have changed for the second time in as many months following North West MP Vince Catania’s shock defection from Labor to the Nationals. Labor now has 26 seats out of 59 after the double blow of the Catania defection and the Fremantle by-election, while the Nationals are up from four to five – the same as they had in the last parliament, before one-vote one-value was introduced (at which time they had one member in the upper house, compared with their current five). The Liberals remain on 24, with the Greens on one and three independents. The influence of the latter has accordingly diminished, as the governing parties are now only one short of a majority in their own right. Catania’s defection has inevitably been interpreted as a blow for Labor leader Eric Ripper and another triumph for all-conquering Nationals leader Brendon Grylls. Against the latter interpretation must be weighed the fact that the Nationals have chosen to associate themselves with a man responsible for one of the most grotesque acts of disloyalty in Australia’s recent political history.

• The big loser from the proposed Queensland federal electoral boundaries published yesterday is up-and-coming Liberal MP Peter Dutton, whose electorate of Dickson is set to exchange urban hinterland areas for a Labor-voting chunk of suburbia around Kallangur. Antony Green, who writes at length on the curse of Dickson, calculates that Dutton’s existing margin of 0.1 per cent has turned into a notional Labor margin of 1.3 per cent. Peter Lindsay’s Townsville-based seat of Herbert has also crossed the divide, from 0.2 per cent Liberal to 0.4 per cent Labor. The Courier-Mail reports that one early hopeful for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat slated to be called Wright (although AAP reports the name might suffer the same fate as it did the last time it was suggested) is Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, who attracted a fair bit of attention as the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and now hopes to get the nod from the Liberal National Party. Ban was more recently in the news when it emerged she had undergone an alarming sounding surgical procedure to increase the length of her legs.

• Former Peter Costello staffer Kelly O’Dwyer now looks all but certain to replace her old boss as Liberal candidate for Higgins after the withdrawal of her main rival, Tim Wilson. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that Wilson “is believed to have pulled out to maintain his focus on advocacy in free trade and climate change through the IPA”. Nominations close next week.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Philip Ruddock is “almost certain to be challenged for preselection for his safe seat of Berowra”. His likely challenger is former Young Liberals president Noel McCoy, with the local numbers believed to be evenly poised. Another source quoted by Coorey says McCoy might challenge Bill Heffernan’s Senate position if unsuccessful in Berowra. The Herald’s Mark Davis reports Heffernan’s position is in jeopardy in any case as he has earned the displeasure of the leadership of the “religious right”.

• Phillip Coorey further provides a list of possible candidates to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield in addition to the oft-mentioned Arthur Sinodinos and Tom Switzer: Julian Leeser, Paul Fletcher and David Coleman.

• The West Australian reports that Tangney MP Dennis Jensen’s pleas to today’s Liberal Party state council meeting for his preselection defeat by Glenn Piggott to be overturned “will fall on deaf ears”, and that he is likely to run as an independent. UPDATE: The West Australian reports that the state council has in fact decided to hear submissions from each of the three candidates (which interestingly keeps Libby Lyons in the loop) over the coming weeks before reaching a final decision.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports that Mia Handshin, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt at the 2007 federal election, is a shoo-in to contest the seat again if she wishes to do so, having locked in the support of Senator and Right faction powerbroker Don Farrell. Handshin says she is “still very carefully considering”. The front-runner for Labor preselection in Boothby is Annabel Digance, a former nurse and member of the SA Water Board.

• Labor’s member for Ivanhoe in Victoria, Craig Langdon, has been defeated for preselection by Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and step-son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. Langdon apparently finished one vote behind his Labor Unity colleague after the votes of the party’s Public Office Selection Committee were added to those from local branches, the latter of which I’m told favoured Langdon 71 votes to 46.

• Following the blunt dismissal of a rape charge against him in Melbourne Magistrates Court, it remains unclear if Victorian Labor MP Theo Theophanous will seek to retain preselection for his upper house region of Northern Metropolitan. Not surprisingly, The Age reports that “senior party figures – including supporters of Mr Theophanous – hope he decides to quit politics and give Mr Brumby ‘clear air’ in the lead-up to next year’s election”. Nonetheless, Theophanous has re-nominated for his position. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the fight to replace Theophanous is between “forces aligned with federal Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, who want Treasury official Vasko Nastevski, and those aligned with federal parliamentary secretary Bill Shorten, who want plumbers’ union official Nathan Murphy”.

• Wallace further reports that John Brumby is moving to protect Eastern Metropolitan MLC Shaun Leane from Electrical Trades Union assistant secretary Howard Worthing. Worthing’s challenge is said to be supported by ETU secretary Dean Mighell, who was expelled from the ALP after emerging as a political liability in the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, along with a “small pocket of the Right”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that federal Liberal Hume MP Alby Schultz has “lost the battle to convince his party to field a candidate in the southeast NSW state seat of Monaro”. This follows an agreement to avoid three-cornered contests which the Liberals’ state executive signed off on last Friday, which also gives the Nationals free rein in the independent-held seats of Tamworth and Dubbo and Labor-held Bathurst. For their part, the Liberals will contest Water Minister Phil Costa’s marginal outer Sydney seat of Wollondilly and get the ninth position on the upper house ticket, which looks highly winnable on current form. The decision by the party’s state council to refer the matter to the executive was behind Schultz’s party-room altercation with Aston MP Chris Pearce.

UPDATE: CityBlue in comments notes that Jane Garrett has won the Labor preselection in Brunswick, as expected, and that Christine Campbell fended off a challenge from Joe Italiano in Pascoe Vale.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

646 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Dario isnt it amazing how the libs have opposed the health reform before seeing the government’s response or the details of the recommendations. they are on automatic pilot set to “oppose”

    And ruawake, did any journalist bother a follow up question to Dutton: “what was wrong with the health system? what do you mean? what did the Howard government not do?”

  2. I did not have sex with that woman.

    [Woman rescued from playful dolphin – A woman was rescued freezing and exhausted from the sea off Mahia in the northern Hawke’s Bay yesterday, worn out by the playful antics of resident dolphin Moko.

    The woman, who did not want to be named, went into the water at about 4.30pm.

    She was wearing a wetsuit and knew Moko was waiting for company, but did not bargain on the dolphin wanting to play for so long. She ended up marooned on a buoy while Moko ran rings around her, swimming around and diving alongside her whenever she tried to move.]

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10586923

  5. Thanks ShowsOn @ 495. Great picture. Looong decades ago, when I was teaching in the Ipswich area, miners who found fossils in mud stone used to send them to the school for display – ferns, some more like maidenhair fern that that one. In that area, it was (according to the geologists who used to come & explain the fossils etc to the kids) volcanic heat via lava flows rather than earthquake pressure which formed the coal layers (inc the ferns). “Up the road a few miles” one could go down the mines and see preserved fossils. Many of the old miners were as good as the geologists at explaining things. Sadly, several of the (exhausted) mines are now flooded.

  6. [Dario isnt it amazing how the libs have opposed the health reform before seeing the government’s response or the details of the recommendations.]
    Health, like Climate Change, isn’t a Liberal issue. They are hopeless at it, and they can’t accept that a massive reform of the health system could involve a short term increase in funding or a less than one percent increase in the Medicare levy in order to secure bigger medium and long term savings. Like most short term oppositions, they are incredibly short sighted.

  7. The “boss” of the Dentist’s Union does not like Denticare. How predictable. He says they have a better solution – but could not say what it was. 🙁

  8. [Keep googling, Don @ 410 I told you the link was simplistic. Find out how volcanic activity + vegetation + mud/sediment + lava flows go together. Surely you’ve been through museums (or books/ on-line etc) with pictures of perfectly carbonised ferns & other vegetation etc and wondered why, since swamps naturally rot all vegetation into peat these survived. Why are some carbonised intact? Swamps do not create coal all by themselves, they need help.

    Like the “Carbon Cycle” (of which quite a few Greens profess ignorance, and about which others are abusively rude) Carbon metamorphic processes, used to be taught in schools – in fact, in primary school in the 1940s-50s when I attended & in high school. I checked with son (attended y1-12 late 70s-80s) and he could recite them. Either schools really have gone to the dogs in the last decade, or some people weren’t paying much attention in class.

    Schools also taught (& still teach) that one should examine all sides of an issue thoroughly before taking a stance – a basic principle of debating (since, as well as one’s own position, one has to know what the opposition will argue whilst preparing one’s rebuttal). And if you didn’t study this sort of thing at school, you weren’t being taught the curriculum fully; because it’s intrinsic]

    I can’t believe what I am reading.

    Has our education system gone so wrong?

    There is no link, none, nada, between vulcanism and coal formation.

    Vulcanism is primarily associated with plate tectonics. It is unrelated to coal formation.

    Coal forms when vegetation is carbonised in the absence of oxygen in swamps. There is no connection to vulcanism whatsoever.

    Your sources are flawed if you think that is the case.

    Have a look at any basic book on geology.

    If you don’t have access to a public library, here are some links:

    http://www.coalking.ca/industry/coal_formation.html

    http://www.planete-energies.com/content/coal/formation.html

    http://www.tutorvista.com/content/chemistry/chemistry-i/coal-petroleum/coal.php

    And your condescension and patronising attitude is amusing, when you are so ignorant.

  9. PS (for the doubters) Rich (usually red) decomposed basalt soils – including alluvial ones – are usually closely connected; hence the siting of England’s coal-fired pottery kilns. In places like Burslem & other pottery towns in N Staffordshire, Derbyshire etc, yeoman farmers literally dug red clay and the coal under the clay out of their yards (or illegally dug clay out of roads & road banks, hence “pothole”).

  10. So far the Rabble response to the Health enquiry has been to “verbal” St Kev about election promises. Tony Abbott has called for “local hospital boards”. Dutton has admitted that the hospital system had problems prior to the 2007 election.

    In Qld the LNP has called on Federal and State Labor to “fix” hospitals.

    The cherry on top is Turnbull’s flat rejection of a universal dental care scheme.

    Yet they wonder why they are staring down the barrel of losing 17 seats at the next election.

  12. Volcanism can certainly influence the coalification process. Coal formation demands a certain amount of heat/pressure (as with any lithification), which are provided by burial. Large lava flows can provide these.

    But simply looking at the enormous size of the world’s coal-bearing basins shows that it is no way essential to coal formation.

  13. I heard the Libs have been spruiking that Rudd promised to “fix” the health systems by 30/6/09 as an election promise.

    My recollection has always been that Rudd promised to work together with the States to try to fix the health systems. And if the States dont agree then Rudd will consider taking over.

  14. [And if the States dont agree then Rudd will consider taking over.]
    After holding a referendum. But the Liberals don’t mention that.

  15. [Volcanism can certainly influence the coalification process. Coal formation demands a certain amount of heat/pressure (as with any lithification), which are provided by burial. Large lava flows can provide these.]

    Burial is all that is required. Large lava flows are relatively rare, though they exist, for example, in the Indian deccan and, closer to home, there are the dolerite sills of Tasmania.

    Burial provides the pressure, and the increase in temperature as you go deeper into the earth provides any heat required.

    But vulcanism is definitely not required, and is usually not a factor of any kind.

    I’d be interested in any reliable sources you can dig up on this hypothesis. You say it can “certainly” influence the coalification process. What sources are you using?

  16. PS Don @ 508 See 505 above

    Thus, if a fine red soil be immediately above decomposing basalt, it may be denominated basaltic soil”

    http://books.google.com.au/books?id=IYpBAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA314&lpg=PA314&dq=red+decomposed+basalt+soils&source=bl&ots=XXs-kkqLj9&sig=aPrjCjhBkrqllKgVwkL7ridP8vI&hl=en&ei=4FxtSteDBNeBkQXGkpWqCw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6

    Basalt (pronounced /b??s??lt, ?beis??lt, ?bæs??lt/)[1][2] is a common extrusive volcanic rock. It is usually grey to black and fine-grained due to rapid cooling of lava at the surface of a planet. It may be porphyritic containing larger crystals in a fine matrix, or vesicular, or frothy scoria. Unweathered basalt is black or grey….

    On Earth, most basalt magmas have formed by decompression melting of the mantle.

    In floodplains, like the Ipswich area, basaltic soils are enriched with sediments (inc plant matter) so may not appear red (although one Ipswich coaling area isn’t called Redbank for nothing).

  17. [The only thing I know about Vulcanism is Mr Spock.]

    I feel with vulcanism ,we are going to go to places no man (or woman) has gone before.

  18. [Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull claimed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise.

    “Let’s be quite clear about this,” he said. “In 2007, Mr Rudd said to the Australian people he would fix the public hospital system by 30 June this year or he would take it over.

    “And he has done neither. He hasn’t fixed it. Things have gone backwards and he hasn’t taken it over.]

    Well done Malcolm – three “truth spins” in one statement. Things must be desperate. Get back in your debt truck – dill.

  19. The Laurie Oakes report on 9 news was most favourable to Rudd, had him saying that after consultation with public for the next 6 mths he will put it to the states and if they don’t agree there will be a vote on it at the next election.
    Promo for 7 News on the other hand (while I was watching Deal or no Deal) said new health report had pensioners in fear of losing their homes.

  20. don @ 515,

    Not disputing any of that, mate. I was supporting your viewpoint.

    If you’d included my last sentence in your blockquote that would have been more apparent…

  21. Gusface,

    Certainly on this forum (PollBludgers in Spaaaace).
    With regard to Spock, I preferred Eric Bana wearing a crabshell on his forehead, though…

  23. ozpol tragic:

    [In floodplains, like the Ipswich area, basaltic soils are enriched with sediments (inc plant matter) so may not appear red (although one Ipswich coaling area isn’t called Redbank for nothing).]

    Your point being? Red colouration of clay is usually from iron oxides. Clay for pottery is usually alluvial in origin.

    I await with interest your sources for your hypothesis of coal formation by vulcanism. Enquiring minds need to know.

  25. Kersebleptes:

    [If you’d included my last sentence in your blockquote that would have been more apparent…]

    Fair enough! 😉

  26. The Coalition’s response to the public & dental health issues (and most other issues) reminds me of the scattergun attacks that they threw up against Labor in the runup to the 2007 election.

    Like Brough’s Intervention (particularly its militarisation); like Andrews’ Hanif affair…

    If it doesn’t work, then do it harder.

  28. Thomas Paine,

    Ahh, one of the great classics!

    So soothing as well, while it talks us into insignificance.

    Mind you, the whole movie was not like that. Brilliant, but I still remember feeling like a stunned mullet when I came out of the Cinema all those years ago…

  29. ShowsOn:

    [Are there many extinct volcanoes in Australia?]

    Yes, there are lots.

    One near me in Armidale is Mount Warning. It was part of a 100 km wide shield volcano, and the original Mt Warning caldera was 30 Km wide.

    http://www.volcanolive.com/tweed.html

    Mount Eccles in southwestern Victoria last exploded about 8000 years ago.

  33. Socrates

    The private hospitals keep infection data but don’t publish them. It’s a source of much contention about having “league tables”.

    Unless there was a run with the same organism, no-one would really look at hospital procedures.

    Burnside had a problem in maternity 2 years ago which was widely reported but I haven’t heard anything recently, and no news is normally good news.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1930534.htm

  35. Diogenes,

    I have recently seen a larger version of your avatar image.
    All this time I thought you had a flower tucked behind your ear, and it’s actually the light on your hair!

    Please note, I am not mocking someone of Falcone’s stature. Or your good self, of course…

  36. WA Health Minister – who is a GP has two bob each way on the Reforms.

    [WA’s Health Minister Kim Hames says a report on the nation’s health care has the potential to revolutionise the whole system.

    The report by the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission proposes the Commonwealth take over funding of most services.

    It also recommends the establishment of a public dental system and a greater focus on preventative health.

    Dr Hames says he welcomes the recommendations but he remains opposed to the Federal Government taking over the running of WA hospitals.

    “What you’d get is some bureaucracy in Canberra putting up some state body to run the hospitals and the state government having no say in how that was done,” he said.

    Dr Hames says the State Government would fight any attempt to take over WA public hospitals, but the report has many good recommendations.

    “I think this report has the potential to revolutionise the way we deal with the whole health system.

    “I strongly disagree with any need for the Commonwealth to take over running of our public hospitals but I think there is a lot that we can work with in that report that is a positive move forward in the way we manage health care in Australia.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/27/2637910.htm

  39. This is a great page for those interested in the possibility of an Oz volcano waking from dormancy:

    http://home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/volcmap.html

    As I said earlier, most volcanic activity is a result of the movement of continental plates, in the region where one impinges on another, but there is another mechanism, the “hotspot”

    The classic “hotspot” is that underneath the Hawaiian Islands chain, responsible for the Hawaiian archipelago.

    These hotspots are the result of a plume of magma punching up through a continental plate, quite unrelated to continental margins. There is another Hawaiian island forming deep under the ocean to the (roughly) east of the present Hawaiian Islands.

    The interesting thing is that there is a hotspot in Oz, not nearly so strong as the Hawaiian one, but it’s all we’ve got.

    It is centred on the Victorian/Bass Strait area, and is responsible for the Mt Gambier volcano, which I think exploded around 4000 years ago from memory.

    But there are reasons to suspect that another volcano is forming under Bass Strait now, as Australia marches northward at around four centimetres a year, while the hotspot remains fixed.

  40. [Are there many extinct volcanoes]

    No such thing as extinct volcanoes anymore. Only matter of time. How long have you got.

    [at age 90, George is said to be in his sexual prime.]

    Vera, what about Rupe?

  41. Happy 70th for yesterday Mr Howard. I hope you have a long and healthy retirement. So you can reflect on the many wasted years you presided over. 🙁

  42. ruawake,

    JWH ceased reflecting at age twenty.

    Although maybe you could get him to consider whether he & Hyacinth really ARE hexing the Aussie cricket team…

  43. According to Ten News Perth WA Health Minister is threatening a High Court Challenge over moves by the Feds to take over the Running of Hospitals.

  46. Frank

    The WA Health Minister must be a dork – or he like the rest of the rabble has overlooked that St Kev is talking about a referendum.

    If the referendum gets passed it will amend the constitution – so go for it WA Health dill.

  47. I know it was done during WWII, but how much dispute was there at the Federal Govt’s takeover of income tax?

    It would have been a similarly large loss of relevance/power.

    Mind you, loss of hospitals would be such a relief. Wouldn’t it?

    Is the power worth all the crap to them?

  48. My brother’s birthday is the same as Howies. Mine is the same as Bob Hawkes. I reckon I got the better deal there .

  49. I had a closer look at the Health Reforms today. Firstly, I would like to object to the term “reform” on principle, we’ve had so many “reforms” which have gone backwards that the term is almost one of derision in health. Until the “Change” is measured and shown to have had a positive effect, it’s not a reform. But I digress…

    There are two really good suggestions in there;

    1. 15% more hospital beds. We talked about it last week but the biggest problem we have is lack of beds. Hospitals run very inefficiently at 99.9% occupancy. Just as well Rudd has sent Adam to SE Asia to start that nursing recruitment drive.
    2. Setting up elective surgery hospitals. The mix of elective and emergency cases means neither get done properly. Studies show that it’s much more efficient for turnover.

  50. I just love Dutton’s indignation about Rudd not taking over the hospital system right now – no wonder Dutton is in danger of losing his seat. He sounds a right dilberry.

    Bruce Hawker was right this afternoon when he told Spiers that the Govt. can’t negotiate anything (CC or health) with the Opposition because they are too busy spouting different positions.

    Has the dental bloke said what he wants yet. He’s probably talking to Turnbull to get a 100% subsidy on everything.

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