Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Other news:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of Cook are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison”. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates’ own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party’s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke – although this was “laughed off” by a “senior Right source”.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members – significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for Robertson.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party’s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year’s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (Kew), Helen Shardey (Caulfield) and Kim Wells (Scoresby). Landeryou also relates rumours about the possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher, the member for Brighton.

• Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former Geelong state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to Wannon; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. (UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)

• There was renewed talk this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of Keilor, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz’s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in Bundoora due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty’s departure from Northcote saw him stay put.

• The New South Wales Nationals’ annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an exciting plan in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

879 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  2. 50

    The Greens are not big on organised crime. The vast majority of this money would have been seized from rich organised criminals. The Greens policies however would be best at undermining this wing of organised crime.

  3. # 36:

    That behaviour typifies that appalling party. The ALP, rotten to the bone and hell bent on obtaining power at any cost. Truely sickening.

  4. [That behaviour typifies that appalling party. The ALP, rotten to the bone and hell bent on obtaining power at any cost. Truely sickening.]

    Even I think that’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read on PB. You’re always going to get abuses of power in the interests of staying in power. It hardly typifies most conduct by Labor, or Liberal for that matter. Hypocrisy definitely.

  5. [so everyone knows he’s talking crap when he says “Being an engineer…”.]

    What is so special being an “Engineer”?

    It’s just like saying i am a doctor, historian, politician, investment banker, car salesman, prophet, god etc.

    Just give a human being anytime.

  7. Dio the sad thing is all parties resort to factionalism…
    If there is one thing I dislike about politics it is factionalism because it brings out the worst in people and causes among other things branch stacking which occurs on both sides of politics.

    Factions are stupid, you’re on the same side but you’re not how stupid is that!

    Re: Iran elections
    – I hate to say I told you so 🙁

  8. I think we should elicit donations from the public, by spuriously claiming abject poverty, to keep Green members in their electorates.

    Oh wait, we’ve just done that.

  9. Yes, Glen, I can’t believe how many Labor supporters have been on this site claiming their mate Ahmadinejad was going to win fair and square …

  10. [What is so special being an “Engineer”? ]

    As an engineer myself, it should give you enough of an education to realise that you aren’t an expert on climate change 😉

  13. Patrick

    The hypocrisy is the Labor supporters who complained about the Regional Rorts program who are silent now.

    I’m not excusing the behaviour, I’m saying that it doesn’t mean everything Labor or Liberals do is tarnished by this example.

  14. Fielding WAS having a blinder on Insiders this morning. It’s true, that if the amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere has increased over the last decade, yet in that time the planet has cooled, it is reasonable to conclude that carbon is not the cause of global warming. In fact it may be argued that the planet is not warming at all. A decade is a long enough period in any trend.

    However, before you CC proponents start to go ballistic, Fielding did contradict himself when he admitted that GW was happening but carbon emissions may not be the cause.

  16. [It’s true, that if the amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere has increased over the last decade, yet in that time the planet has cooled, it is reasonable to conclude that carbon is not the cause of global warming. In fact it may be argued that the planet is not warming at all. A decade is a long enough period in any trend.]

    Well, I won’t go ballistic, but basically that’s a load of tosh

  18. Centre

    Here’s a nice 8 minute youtube showing that the ‘global warming stopped ten years ago’ argument is a crock.

  20. Dio even when the ‘reformist’ Khatami won he wasnt a reformer whatsoever…

    The real power lies with the Mullahs…very sad for Iran.

  21. This “global cooling” crap makes me so angry I could do someone a serious violence if I wasn’t such a mild-mannered person.

    Warming trend has not been reversed
    David Karoly
    April 29, 2008
    The Australian
    THE opinion piece by Phil Chapman (“Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh”, Opinion, April 22) warns of an approaching ice age but contains a number of factual errors, misleading statements and incorrect conclusions.

    Chapman reports global average temperature cooled by 0.7C in 2007 and says: “If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.”

    It is true that global data sets show a pronounced cooling from January2007 to January 2008 of slightly less than 0.7C. It is an error to state, as Chapman does, that this is unprecedented, as similar dramatic falls occurred from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974. It should also be noted that the global average temperature has warmed substantially, by about 0.3C from January 2008 to March 2008. In addition, the annual average temperature for 2007 was within 0.1C of the average temperature in 2006 and 2005; no dramatic cooling there.

    So what caused this rapid cooling during 2007, and also from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974? What was common to all those periods? In each case, the common factor was a rapid change from El Nino to La Nina conditions, from warm temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to cold temperatures in the same region, which has a significant effect on global climate patterns and global average temperature. La Nina is associated with below-normal global average temperature, and because of its influence, 2008 is likely to be about 0.3C cooler than the average of the previous few years.

    Chapman did not consider La Nina as a cause of the cooling in 2007 and instead linked it to the minimum in the 11-year cycle in sunspot numbers: “The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday.”

    I don’t know where these sunspot numbers came from but they are in error. The best source of data for present sunspot numbers is the World Data Centre for Solar Terrestrial Physics at the National Geophysical Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. According to it, the average number of sunspots a day last January was 3.4, followed by 2.1 in February and 9.3 in March. The minimum was in October2007.

    So, are variations in global average temperature directly related to sunspot numbers on a monthly, annual or decadal timescale?

    Certainly not on a monthly timescale and the effect, if any, on a year-to-year timescale is very small, as can be found by correlating the variations of global average temperature on monthly or annual timescales with the sunspot numbers. Any relationship between sunspot numbers and global average temperatures is much, much smaller than the clear relationship between inter-annual variations of equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperatures and global average temperatures, showing the effect of the El Nino-La Nina cycle.

    While those errors are bad enough, the main flaw in Chapman’s opinion is trying to infer long-term climate trends from short-term (one year) variations of global temperature. It is well known (among climate scientists) that there are large inter-annual variations of global temperature caused by a number of factors, including El Nino, big volcanic eruptions, or just the chaotic variability of the climate system. It is not possible to make conclusions about long-term climate trends from inter-annual climate variations. Many lines of evidence support the conclusion reached last year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”, referring to changes over the past 100 years. Even when we consider only the global average temperature during La Nina episodes, such as the present cool period, we find that we are experiencing the warmest global temperature of any strong La Nina episode in the past 100 years, again showing clear long-term global warming.

    Most of the increase in global average temperature over the past 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This long-term increase in global average temperature will continue throughout the 21st century because of further increases in greenhouse gases. Yes, there will be year-to-year natural climate variations, with some colder years, but the long-term warming trend will continue.

    An ice age is definitely not going to occur in the 21st century. Instead, we will all need to make very large reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases if we are to minimise dangerous anthropogenic climate change.

    David Karoly is a professor in the University of Melbourne’s school of earth sciences and a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.

  23. On the subject of Essendon, I think that it is a future target for the Greens to overtake the Libs and fight Labor. I think that it has a large middle class left vote that is winnable by the Greens at some point in the future.

  25. [it is reasonable to conclude that carbon is not the cause of global warming.]

    It’s only “reasonable” if you have absolutely no understanding of science.

    [As an engineer myself, it should give you enough of an education to realise that you aren’t an expert on climate change]

    Depends what kind of engineer. Mechanical, civil and aeronautical engineers probably don’t know much about climate change, but environmental engineers do a fair amount of environmental science including atmospheric chemistry and the dynamics relating to the environment.

    On that note, anyone know what kind of engineer Fielding is?

  26. From his website:

    After finishing high school, Steve did a Bachelor of Engineering degree at RMIT University which he completed in 1983. He then started work at Hewlett Packard where he met Susan, who also worked there.

    Steve later moved into management and executive roles with NEC and Siemens, and completed a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) at Monash University in 1992.

    Later that year Steve and his family moved to Wellington in New Zealand where he took up an executive role with Telecom NZ. They returned to Australia in 1995. Steve worked with United Energy and then Yellow Pages. For the last five years, he has been with one of Victoria’s largest superannuation funds, Vision Super (formerly Local Authority Super).

  28. Centre

    There’s no point sending it to Fielding. If he’s able to dismiss evolution as a theory in favour of creationism, he’s hardly going to be persuaded by any rational arguent on global warming apart from the Earth exploding in a fireball and it will be kind of to late by then. And even then he’d be thinking it was Plimer’s volcanos playing up.

  29. [Depends what kind of engineer.

    environmental engineers do a fair amount of environmental science including atmospheric chemistry and the dynamics relating to the environment.]

    They’re not ‘real’ engineers 😉

  30. [FFA will officially launch its 2018/22 bid on Sunday at Parliament House in Canberra but, with England claiming football superstar David Beckham as an ambassador and the USA naming California state Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to its bid committee board, Australia will hang its hopes on a truck driver and indigenous children.

    “Our bid is for all Australians and we would like to see all Australians joining the bid,” said FFA CEO Ben Buckley in a statement. “We’d be delighted to welcome celebrities and well-known Australians to join the bid but our secret weapon is football fans, players, and everyone who just enjoys sport and would like to see Australia prosper.”]

    http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/australia/ffa-to-unveil-secret-weapon-192317

    Come Play. Support Australia’s World Cup Bid. Yes, we can.

    http://www.australia2018-2022.com.au/

  35. [Australia’s World Cup Bid. Yes, we can.]

    I doubt “we” can, but I certainly hope “we” don’t. Why would they play the World Cup in a country where soccer isn’t even the second most popular football code, and is mostly played as an excuse to re-enact the Balkan Wars in the grandstand?

  36. Diogs, Fielding is irrelevant and is as weak as tissue paper. If the Greens and X supported Labor then he would cave in like a house of cards 😉

  37. Tom, why do you keep asking me what I think of your posts? You know what I think. I think you live in a political fantasy land. Do you have some deep-seated need to be ridiculed and humiliated? If so I’m happy to help: Tom, you’re an idiot.

  38. [and is mostly played as an excuse to re-enact the Balkan Wars in the grandstand?]

    Herr Doktor, go back to your Canberra hole. Obviously, you Labor Masters dont agree with you.

  40. Tom, why do you keep asking me what I think of your posts?]

    Herr Doktor, I agree with you. Your opinion is not worth anything.

  41. 58: And even better, blame someone else for Green poor judgement…

    “Senator Milne has told ABC 1’s Insiders her colleague was forced into a corner by Forestry Tasmania.
    “It was not simply a fundraising ploy, and it wasn’t Bob who raised the spectre of bankruptcy,” she said.
    “It was Forestry Tasmania’s legal letter to Senator Brown, saying that he had to pay by the end of the month and threatening the bankruptcy procedures.”

    A few points for that spinner of deception, Milne.
    a) Forestry Tas didn’t force Bob into a corner, he willingly donned the dunce cap and went there himself.
    b) Bob has been aware of the courts ruling re reimbursement for about a year now.
    c) As I understand it (and I may be wrong) Forestry Tas can’t “threaten bankruptcy” they can take further legal action to recover their money. It’s up to Bob to file for bankruptcy and a more principled Senator would have done so.

    Green propaganda hits the very real wall of the law. And folds.

  42. I think you live in a political fantasy land if you think that the Greens are not going to get bigger. At the last state election they got 10% and the most recent state Newspoll had them at 15%. Gonwyn Pike should be worried.

  43. The only relevant parties on CC are Labor and Liberal, neither is going to give the Greens what they desire.

    The Greens want to fight the next election on CC. It will be fought on the economy.

    Labor and Liberal will sort it out within the next year. The Greens will be attacked as job destroying eco-purists by both of these parties.

  44. I think (as I’ve said before) that the Nats, the Greens, Xenophon and Fielding will all vote against the CPRS bill. What a united front that is! The Libs will probably vote against it at the first presentation, but when it comes later in the year Turnbull will crack and pass the bill. Some of his Senators will cross the floor, but we only need seven Libs to vote with Labor to pass it, and we will get that. Turnbull knows that if he gives Rudd a DD trigger on this issue, Rudd will use it, and that would be end of Turnbull.

  45. Up to a point Joel. Forrestry Tasmania could have applied to have Brown declared bancrupt, although he certainly also had the option of applying himself.

    I must acknowledge that having Milne as the next best thing to Brown in the Green parliamentry party would be a wonderful inducement for any Green supporter to contribute to keep him there.

  46. 93

    The Greens will attack the big parties as the job destroying puppets of the fossil fuel lobby the are. The Greens will go particularly strong on this in Melbourne, Sydney and Grayndler to try and move a position further up the order of vote getters.

  47. I am not going to side against Bob Brown. I think he’s a top bloke and a decent human being. However, we can still enjoy the Greens’ loony policies 😀

    Not supporting the CPRS in the belief that they can persuade other nations to cut their emissions by between 25% – 40% is cuckoo stuff.

  48. [c) As I understand it (and I may be wrong) Forestry Tas can’t “threaten bankruptcy” they can take further legal action to recover their money.]

    Whatever legal action they would have taken would have amounted to bankruptcy, at least in regards to Brown’s Senate seat.

    I will take the words of the Clerk of the Senate, who was responding directly to what was in the letter by Forestry Tasmania over yours. =)

  50. [The Greens will attack the big parties as the job destroying puppets of the fossil fuel lobby the are.]

    Who cares? This will gain no traction at all.

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