Essential Research: 56-44

Labor’s two-party lead from Essential Research is up slightly following last week’s dive, from 55-45 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on the financial state of the companies respondents work for, future spending plans, confidence in the economy, “concern over job situation”, government regulation of the financial sector and whether an election will be justified if the “opposition refuses to pass” emissions tradding scheme legislation. Interestingly, the response to the latter question is 33 per cent yes and 37 per cent no, compared with 41 per cent and 29 per cent in April.

• The talk of the town this week is Section 44 (iii) of the Constitution, which provides that any person who is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Such designation could shortly apply to Bob Brown, who has been advised by Forestry Tasmania he faces bankruptcy proceedings if he does not come good on an order to pay $239,368 costs stemming from a failed bid to stop logging in Tasmania’s Wielangta forests. With offers of support flooding in from sources including Dick Smith, one suspects he’ll keep the wolf from the door. Ken Jeffreys of Forestry Tasmania describes Brown’s appeal as a “public holiday, slow-news-day media stunt”, while Bronwyn Bishop queries the Greens’ determination that the matter is Brown’s problem rather than theirs.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Craig Langdon, the state Labor member for Ivanhoe, faces a preselection challenge from by Labor Unity colleague Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. A text message from Langdon to local party members accuses Carbines of disregarding his offer to vacate the seat for him at the election after next. Landeryou blames the episoode on moves the prohibit political staffers from serving as councillors in the wake of the Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank Council, foreseeing further such action from “a tribe of angry, politically very well connected and shafted staffer-councillors who have been told to choose between their day jobs and their passion of politics and community service”.

• The ABC reports Scott Bacon, 32-year-old son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, is seeking preselection in Denison for next year’s state election. Bacon is an economist and adviser to Energy and Resources Minister David Llewellyn.

• Poll Bludger regular Oz has started a blog devoted to New South Wales state politics, which is the kind of thing we should have more of. Do visit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,752 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44”

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  1. How do you trust the NSW Greens if you can’t trust the Vegetanle Greens if you can’t trust Bob Brown?

    In trust we hope?

  2. [So the NSW Greens do not have to follow any policy adopted by the Federal Greens. ]

    Sounds like the NSW Greens are behaving like the WA Greens were before they became part of the Australian Greens – a law unto themselves – yet they have the gall to attack the way the ALP is run.

  3. What exactly are we watching unfold? Lee Rhiannon has been an MP for years and one of the most high profile spokespersons. In that period The Greens have seen growth in membership, parliamentary representation and votes. Communist scaremongering is hardly new, and it didn’t work in the past so I’m not sure why you expect it to work in the future.

    Of course that’s on the presumption you think rationally or logically, of which there is little evidence.

  4. [So the NSW Greens do not have to follow any policy adopted by the Federal Greens.]

    No State Greens parliamentarian has to follow the policies adopted by the Federal party. This is made explicit in the parts of the constitution you name, but refuse to quote.

  5. Oz

    When did the Greens last hold a Senate seat in NSW? Why are they even bothering to discuss Senate candidates in NSW?

    When the Green vote at the next Federal election declines what next?

  6. Oz

    On closer inspection, you are correct. It seems NSW Greens are bound by party policy. That is even worse. Sounds like the ALP. 😉

  7. [On closer inspection, you are correct. It seems NSW Greens are bound by party policy. That is even worse. Sounds like the ALP. ]

    Wonder if they also suffer the same consequences if they decide to cross the floor ?

  8. Frank

    The non-existant NSW Senator could not croos the floor and remain a member of the Greens, as Tasmanian could, a South Australian could, even a Western Australian could.

    But a mythical NSW Senator could not. Its a farce – why have a constitution that does not apply to all States?

  9. [When did the Greens last hold a Senate seat in NSW?]

    2007?

    [Wonder if they also suffer the same consequences if they decide to cross the floor ?]

    I don’t think there’s anything binding any Greens to policy on threat of expulsion.

    It’s funny that ruawake was claiming that The Greens weren’t actually a real party a few weeks ago because that was the case, but now he’s discovered it’s the other way he finds problems as well. =D

  10. Oz

    Who is the Green Senator from NSW? Poor Kerry 😉

    I said the Greens are a grouping of independents – not a party. 😛

  11. Yep I agree – malaria was almost wiped out, DDT was banned, malaria parasite bounces back. Even the WHO have changed their mind and recommend its limited use.

    DDT was not banned for anti-malaria use. It was banned for agricultural use in part because overuse led to the evolution of insect resistance.

  12. Oz @ 1688

    Thanks for the link. Informative article. Psephos’ lack of response in 1692 to my specific question regarding smh article says it all. His ‘opinion’ has been consigned to the wastepaper bin.

  13. Call me an Old Softy, but (after plonkingly resisting for months and months) I just watched Baz’s Australia for the first time, on a big home theatre 14 foot Cinemascope screen in glorious Technicolor and Blu-Ray’s exquisite detail…. and it was F_A_B_U_L_O_U_S.

    Good on yer Baz, Nicole and Hugh. A real heart renderer. Soppy, over the top, Indiana Jones meets Crocodile Dundee, cute kids, great drunks, David Gulpilil perfect as always, the baddest baddies you’ve ever seen, I laughed and I cried etc. etc…. great film entertainment.

  14. [I don’t think anyone in The Greens is going to boast about the strength of their youth wing.]

    Isn’t the whole purpose of a Youth Wing is to ensure that you continue to retain and increase member numbers as the oldies drop off the perch ? If it is such a state secret, why even bother having one in the first place ?

  15. The Greens will be discouraged by the dismal turnout at today’s rallies. There is no real pressure on Rudd to move to the left on the climate issue. This increases the likelihood of a deal with Turnbull to get the bill through the Senate before Copenhagen.

  16. And in Perth they only had several hundred attend – VERY poor showing for the Greens – or was the weather in Perth so cold that most people were at home trying to keep warm ?

    [Several hundred people turned out to support a climate rally in Perth today as part of a national call to embrace renewable energy and scrap the Federal Government’s emissions trading scheme.

    Thousands marched in similar protest actions in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney and Wollongong today.

    The rallies are part of an Australia-wide bid to create new green jobs, scrap the emissions trading scheme, protect Australia’s forests and ban nuclear energy.

    Today’s colourful lunchtime rally in Forrest Chase included information stalls, music and banners, along with passionate speeches from WA Greens senator Rachel Siewert and Greens MP for Fremantle Adele Carles, along with The Wilderness Society WA’s Peter Robertson and the Anti-Nuclear Alliance of WA’s Kate Vallentine.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=147927

  17. [The Greens will be discouraged by the dismal turnout at today’s rallies. There is no real pressure on Rudd to move to the left on the climate issue. This increases the likelihood of a deal with Turnbull to get the bill through the Senate before Copenhagen.]

    Oh and I didn’t see or hear any publicty for this rally prior to the event either – their PR Budget must have only extended to the Party Faithful.

  18. Political de-centralization is not a bad thing or something that needs to be “defended”. It is about grass-roots democracy and having a say in your own state of affairs without intruding into others. Local, direct action is a more worthy goal than “democratic-centralism” (sic) and having big-wigs overturning policy made by the rank and file as has been a common theme throughout history in some other parties.
    Lee Rhiannon has proved herself in the field and will make a fine senator.

  19. Political de-centralization is not a bad thing or something that needs to be “defended”. It is about grass-roots democracy and having a say in your own state of affairs without intruding into others. Local, direct action is a more worthy goal than “democratic-centralism” (sic) and having big-wigs overturning policy made by the rank and file as has been a common theme throughout history in some other parties.
    Lee Rhiannon has proved herself in the field and will make a fine senator.

  20. I just saw the footage of the Perth Rally on ABC Perth News – VERY poor turnout, I don’t think they even got a 100 people in Forrest Place. And I love how they had signs saying Greens = Jobs, when what they propose will result in the exact opposite.

  21. I started to read Dutton’s article, but when he said that the Libs would win the next election I didn’t bother further. Of course he couldn’t say anything else, which is why politicians should not try to be commentators.

  22. SOCIO-ECONOMIC factors are the major cause of violence, gangs etc.
    Religion convinces people of their views and produces passion: this can be for good such as charity and anti-faschist movements or for bad such as violence. Nevertheless religion itself is not a major cause of gang troubles (although tribalism between different religions may be). Whako cults may support violence but no mainstream religion if properly interpreted does so.

    What does the fact that the NSW Police have something along the lines of a “middle-east crime squad” tell us? Is it a beat up by the cops wanting scape goats so as to increase their powers and a MSM always keen to villify or is dividing the police forces into different groups each tasked with preventing crime within a different ethnicity a very practical form of administeration?

  23. Adam says:
    [Of course he couldn’t say anything else, which is why politicians should not try to be commentators.]
    Yeah good point. Didn’t think he could be that fool-hardy.

  24. [What does the fact that the NSW Police have something along the lines of a “middle-east crime squad” tell us? Is it a beat up by the cops wanting scape goats so as to increase their powers and a MSM always keen to villify or is dividing the police forces into different groups each tasked with preventing crime within a different ethnicity a very practical form of administeration?]

    Or maybe it may be a case of having a squad wqith officers trained to deal with the specific cultural sensitivites of that community, just as in WA there is the “Asian Squad” which deals in issues spefic to the Asian Community, plus the various Aboriginal Liasion Officers, plus squads for Gay & Lesbians ?

  25. [What does the fact that the NSW Police have something along the lines of a “middle-east crime squad” tell us? Is it a beat up by the cops wanting scape goats so as to increase their powers and a MSM always keen to villify or is dividing the police forces into different groups each tasked with preventing crime within a different ethnicity a very practical form of administeration?]

    I agree that the police should not openly identify units or operations as being targeted at particular ethnic groups. But saying that is not the same thing as denying that there is a problem with a particular pattern of criminal behaviour among a minority (I assume) of Lebanese Muslim male youth in Sydney, because clearly there is.

    [Whako cults may support violence but no mainstream religion if properly interpreted does so.]

    That may be so, but Sheikh Hilaly and some other leading figures in the Sydney Muslim community deserve a good deal of blame for the ghetto mentality that has deleveloped among sections of Sydney Muslim youth and also for their attitudes to non-Muslim women.

  26. [I wonder if Psephos has met anyone from Sydney’s ethnic or Muslim community that he’s such an expert on.]

    Firstly, yes I have, but secondly, what a truly idiotic comment. I’m reminded of the late, great Stanley Uys, for many years South African ambassador to Australia, who used to tell critics of apartheid that they had no right to comment if they hadn’t been to South Africa.

  27. No one is suggesting you don’t have a right to comment, calm down.

    Your sweeping and unfounded generalisations would be dealt with after some time living in these communities. It’s been demonstrated time and time again by various posters that nothing you say is backed up by the figures yet that never stops you from acting as though it’s irrefutable fact.

  28. [Your sweeping and unfounded generalisations would be dealt with after some time living in these communities. It’s been demonstrated time and time again by various posters that nothing you say is backed up by the figures yet that never stops you from acting as though it’s irrefutable fact.]

    And yours are ? 🙂

    Just saying, you know – people in Glass Houses etc.

  29. I say:
    [What does the fact that the NSW Police have something along the lines of a “middle-east crime squad” tell us? Is it a beat up by the cops wanting scape goats so as to increase their powers and a MSM always keen to villify or is dividing the police forces into different groups each tasked with preventing crime within a different ethnicity a very practical form of administeration?]
    Frank Calabrese says:
    [Or maybe it may be a case of having a squad wqith officers trained to deal with the specific cultural sensitivites of that community, just as in WA there is the “Asian Squad” which deals in issues spefic to the Asian Community, plus the various Aboriginal Liasion Officers, plus squads for Gay & Lesbians ?]
    So would you say it’s a bit of both then?

  30. I agree with Psephos 1731 on Lebanese Muslim male youths (in crime gangs) being a problem in Sydney. I don’t think it is racist to point out this problem; it is a fact. Sayng it does not suggest that all Lebanese migrants are a problem, or all muslim migrants are a problem, in Sydney or elsewhere. Most of the muslim community in Sydney suffers as a result of this group I suspect, just as a Vietnamese friend of mine speaks with regret of Vietnamese drug gangs and the damage they do to the image of the rest of the vietnamese community.

    To illustrate that there is a particular problem with this group in Sydney – consider Melbourne. There is at least as large an imigrant population, including a large muslim community, but not the same problem. Conversely there is a significant problem with gangs of young males of other nationalities in Melbourne.

  31. To further back up Psephos’s comments, ther is a good Victorian study on ethnicity and crime:
    http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/ethnicity-crime/ethnic-intro.pdf

    The report makes the good point that, overall, crime rates of most immigant groups are lower than for Australian born residents. Howver there are exceptions. Two groups have markedly higher imprisonent rates for drug crimes – Vietnamese and Cambodian. There are three immigrant groups with higher than average crime rates generally – Turkish, Lebanese and New Zealanders. There is one group with a markedly higher rate of violent crime – Fijians.

  32. The problem is not the fact that there’s higher crime amongst certain ethnic groups, I’ve stated that’s the case previously.

    The problem is that Psephos will explicitly differentiate between the ethnic groups based on their religion and the suggest that the determinant is the religion. I don’t think this has any statistical basis, and when I asked him to provide information on the alleged numerous “Muslim rape gangs” I got nothing.

  33. Marx says:
    [How, then, to heal the anti-capitalistic cancer of the colonies? If men were willing, at a blow, to turn all the soil from public into private property, they would destroy certainly the root of the evil, but also — the colonies. The trick is how to kill two birds with one stone. Let the Government put upon the virgin soil an artificial price, independent of the law of supply and demand, a price that compels the immigrant to work a long time for wages before he can earn enough money to buy land, and turn himself into an independent peasant]
    For my fellow South Australians here is Karl Marx’s opinion on the colonization of our fine state. He also says how he reckons Wakefield was influenced by the colonization of the US and Western Australia.
    http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/ch33.htm

  34. [ When did the Greens last hold a Senate seat in NSW?

    2007?]

    Funny thing is, Nettle was elected on a primary of 4%. She failed to be re-elected on a primary of 8%. Ahh, the bizarre machinations of preferences.

  35. [I started to read Dutton’s article, but when he said that the Libs would win the next election I didn’t bother further. Of course he couldn’t say anything else, which is why politicians should not try to be commentators.]

    Well MPs of both parties do need to act like they’ll win the next election, they don’t have much if they don’t have confidence. If they gain seats at the next election, they’ll be happy.

  36. [ One of the reasons why the Socialist Alliance has failed so badly to revive communism as a political force is that all the old comms with any brains have joined the Greens, where they know their superior discipline will enable them to manipulate the naive hippies. The same thing happened with the Nuclear Disarmament Party after 1984, but Garrett refused to be manipulated and walked out. ]

    Garrett, and also Jo Vallentine (the NDP candidate who actually got elected). Remember where she ended up a few years later, and your argument goes to bits. 😉

  37. [On closer inspection, you are correct. It seems NSW Greens are bound by party policy. That is even worse. Sounds like the ALP.]

    To be fair to Labor, one has to understand how Labor came about and the presence of the other parties at the time, as well as what the party in it’s originality actually stood for, to understand and appreciate the tightly binding party line.

  38. bob

    the ‘tightly binding party line’ only applies to MPs, AFTER they have had a chance to put their view to caucus.

    It’s a common misapprehension (even amongst Labor members and party staffers) that the pledge candidates sign on preselection requires them to toe the party line.

    It doesn’t – it clearly says that, if elected, the candidate will be bound by any decision made by caucus in which they have played a part (wording’s not right but that’s the gist).

    So a candidate is free, as they should be, to argue that, if elected, they will work to change a certain party policy.

    And the ‘party line’ is certainly not binding on anyone who is not an MP.

    As I’ve said before, the theory is that if you can’t convince a roomful of people who have much the same ideas and vision as you have that your argument is correct, chances are that it isn’t.

    I’ve been involved in more campaigns than I can count, written media releases for all of them, been the local ALP spokesperson, worked for a Labor MP, fronted the Premier and President with strong criticisms, spoken as an ALP delegate in many forums and in each case have (on occasion) put forward views which were not the party line. I’ve never ever been pulled up on any occasion by anyone, let alone threatened with disciplinary action.

    The only time any threat was made was by a local MP when I didn’t do what they wanted. It was purely a personal spat but the MP invoked party platform as the reason why I should be toeing the line. I had the overwhelming support of the Party administration, and the MP was ordered to apologise to me.

    So, as someone who is as involved in the party as it is possible to be without (presently) drawing a wage, my personal experience says that, for the average member, there is no tightly binding party line.

  39. Christine milne & fielding on insiders yawn

    plus the poison dewalf mine – yawn again

    Julia did well earlier in her interview with laurie oaks

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