Newspoll: 55-45

Breaking news: Newspoll has Labor’s lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. Since you all know about it by now, a link will suffice (although I will observe that Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings seem to have bottomed out). Here’s a first: Essential Research has the same result as Newspoll, with Labor’s lead plunging from 59-41 to 55-45. Further questions focus on the parties’ capacity to handle various issues, emissions trading schemes and climate change, and perceptions of politicians’ honesty (better than you might think).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,843 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  2. [And so did Michael Organ the Greens Federal Member for Cunningham, and guess what – he LOST !!!!.]

    He was elected on half the primary vote the Greens got.

  3. [A personal attack is calling something that someone is not. “Tofu brigade” is a literary creation used as an insult. Are you honestly denying that you’re pro-Labor anti-Green, or denying that you have no real experience in comparison to William Bowe and Antony Green?]

    Oh dear, I’ve upset the poor little tofu eater – It is quite acceptable in this blog for people to personally attack ALP people, but to respond in kind to the precious scared Greens is a NATIONAL CRIME.

    Talk about Hypocricy.

    And as for Generic Heffalump – You just decribed yourself.

  5. [He was elected on half the primary vote the Greens got.]

    But the fact remains that despite having incumbancy which you are saying Adele will have – he STILOL lost – having half a primary vote is no excuse – he was a Flash in the pan protest victor – just like Adele will be.

  6. GP,

    Perhaps Frank’s got hold of Wilson’s smoting stick and using that to make a cacophony of political sense.

  7. [And so did Michael Organ the Greens Federal Member for Cunningham, and guess what – he LOST !!!!.]

    Not to mention I suspect “real” commentators such as William Bowe and Antony Green wouldn’t have rated Organ’s chances of retaining the seat as high then, unlike their predictions for Adele and the Greens next election. It was a lucky series of two independent 10% candidates and preference flows that got the Greens over the line.

    Bottom line, Adele got double the first prefs than the Cunningham by-election.

    Second bottom line, exactly why should anyone listen to you over William Bowe and Antony Green’s combined opinion that the Greens have a good chance of retaining the seat? Because you’re a pro-Labor anti-Green ameteur poster on Pollbludger? Is that your claim to knowledgeability?

    And no, there’s no personal attack in there, there’s no name calling, just honest truth.

  9. “Hack” implies minimal capacity for independent or critical thought. It implies lack of autonomy beyond the intellectual boundaries preset by the party. It therefore implies narrow-mindedness, lack of vision and lack of empathy.

    Usually, a hack’s job is to do the bidding of other, more deeply indoctrinated – or disillusioned yet supine – hacks. Hacks who work for non-hacks are always on the lookout for new employment as confronting a life without the comforts of hackness is too stressful and demanding …

  10. [Second bottom line, exactly why should anyone listen to you over William Bowe and Antony Green’s combined opinion that the Greens have a good chance of retaining the seat? Because you’re a pro-Labor anti-Green ameteur poster on Pollbludger? Is that your claim to knowledgeability?]

    So my opinions don’t count because they don’t fit into the Tofu Brigade’s Mantra.

    So they spout one thing about Demopcracy but when they justifiably get pulled down a peg or two, they go personal on the POSTER.

    What double standards.

  12. [Now the consensus is that they’re all geniuses.]

    LOL. There isn’t a single politician who would even remotely be a genius in Oz.

    And if you were looking for a group of people from a particular occupation with the best talent and brains to run the country, party hacks and union thugs would rate very lowly.

  13. [Bottom line, Adele got double the first prefs than the Cunningham by-election.]

    Because there was NO LIBERAL CANDIDATE !!!!

    Geez, even Blind Freddy could see where those lost LIberal Votes went.

  14. [So my opinions don’t count because they don’t fit into the Tofu Brigade’s Mantra.

    So they spout one thing about Demopcracy but when they justifiably get pulled down a peg or two, they go personal on the POSTER.

    What double standards.]

    All i’m saying is, why should we believe the analysis of the Greens chances in Freo from a pro-Labor anti-Green ameteur Pollbludger poster, over William Bowe and Antony Green? Why? Because it’s your opinion? You have a right to your opinion, but I also have the right to question what you base your analysis on considering you’re just a pro-Labor anti-Green ameteur Pollbludger poster.

  16. [“Hack” implies minimal capacity for independent or critical thought. It implies lack of autonomy beyond the intellectual boundaries preset by the party. It therefore implies narrow-mindedness, lack of vision and lack of empathy.]
    Well I can’t see how this definition could apply to Arbib, he thought the party should have a new leader, so he did something about it to make that thought bubble a reality.

    To me hack means someone more interested in their own personal interests rather than the benefit of the party and country as a whole. For example, Peter Costello refusing to take the opposition leadership after an election loss, even though opinion polls suggested he was the most popular candidate with the public.

  17. [Because there was NO LIBERAL CANDIDATE !!!!

    Geez, even Blind Freddy could see where those lost LIberal Votes went.]

    The Greens only got a swing of 16% I believe. One independent got 13% and another independent got 10% – the 13% one was a Liberal-leaning independent.

  18. * Hack” implies minimal capacity for independent or critical thought. – yes

    * It implies lack of autonomy beyond the intellectual boundaries preset by the party. – yes

    * It therefore implies narrow-mindedness, lack of vision and lack of empathy. – yes

    * Usually, a hack’s job is to do the bidding of other, more deeply indoctrinated – or disillusioned yet supine – hacks. – yes

    * Hacks who work for non-hacks are always on the lookout for new employment as confronting a life without the comforts of hackness is too stressful and demanding … – Yes

    Westie, i qualify. yes, i am a 100% HACK.

  19. [All i’m saying is, why should we believe the analysis of the Greens chances in Freo from a pro-Labor anti-Green ameteur Pollbludger poster, over William Bowe and Antony Green? Why? Because it’s your opinion? You have a right to your opinion, but I also have the right to question what you base your analysis on considering you’re just a pro-Labor anti-Green ameteur Pollbludger poster.]

    In that case, NOBODY can prdict what the result would be as decreed by the Tofu Brigade.

    And yet the Tofu Brigade consider it appropriate, indeed a badge of honour to PERONALLY attack ANYBODY who dares questions their moral supiority.

    No wonder MAINSTREAM Australia will NOT elect such a shallow and vain bunch of political opportunists of the highest order.

  21. ‘verballing’ means what exactly?

    I thought it meant stating that someone had said something when they had not done so, as in, ‘Putting words in someone’s mouth.’

    Now I see that several bludgers are using ‘verballing’ to mean something like punching someone with words.

    Does anyone actually really know what ‘verballing’ means?

  24. [What’s Frank got against tofu?]

    Oz, you beat to it. i love tofu. the best Tofu are made in Flemington, Sydney.

    😆

  26. [Now I see that several bludgers are using ‘verballing’ to mean something like punching someone with words.]
    “Verballing” is something G.P. accuses people of when he doesn’t have evidence to back up his claims.
    [What’s Frank got against tofu?]
    Apparently it is a food only eaten by supporters of the Greens.

  27. [What’s Frank got against tofu?]

    Well that’s what Vegetarian Greens eat don’t they ? It is a DESCRIPTION of your STEREOTYPICAL Greens supporter.

    And before you start crying croccodile tears, we ALP’ers are always referred to as Union Hacks,. which we let go through to the keeper, but the Green supporters cry fouldl over.

    I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of the moral supiority of the Greens- that is all.

    But it seems I’ve hit a few raw nerves haven’t I.

  28. [Because there was NO LIBERAL CANDIDATE !!!!

    Geez, even Blind Freddy could see where those lost LIberal Votes went.]

    And let’s not forget, the Liberal candidate got 30% at the last state election, and Labor on 38%. With incumbency, it is likely the Greens will win on preferences. Antony Green and William Bowe agree, you, who is unknown to the psephology world, don’t. Boo hoo.

  29. Frank, try frying 1cm thick slices in sesame oil with a few generous splashes of soya sauce.

    (You’ll join the Brigade lickety-split.)

  30. [I never said anything was wrong with Arbib. Read my posts and stop constructing strawmen for once.]
    Fair enough. So there isn’t anything wrong with Arbib. He could be a good minister and deserves a go to find out.

  32. Chris Graham, National Indigenous Times editor, quoted in Crikey today:

    ‘In politics you can justify almost anything. But being an Aboriginal member of the Labor or Liberal Party is no longer one of them.

    At least, that’s the case in the Northern Territory, and it’s all thanks to Marion Scrymgour, the former NT Deputy Chief Minister who yesterday walked away from the Labor Party and, in the process, changed the face of black politics in this country forever.

    Scrymgour will now serve out her term as an Independent for the seat of Arafura. And there’s not a damn thing Labor, infamous for drowning “rats” that desert the sinking ship, can do about it.

    Until yesterday, Labor held 13 of the NT parliament’s 25 seats, the minimum number to govern in its own right. Today, it must negotiate with one of two independents to retain power: Gerry Wood, a former deputy speaker of parliament who was screwed out of the job by Labor, and, of course, Marion Scrymgour.

    In politics, you reap what you sow. Scrymgour’s desertion has left NT Labor Chief Minister Paul Henderson so powerless, so impotent that this morning he was reduced to issuing a flapping press release headlined, “STRONG STABLE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES”.

    Sure it does. Just not in the NT. Up there, government is paralysed. Pure and simple. And note to Paul: writing the headline in capitals doesn’t make it any more convincing.

    Scrymgour by all reports is taking no comfort in her “betrayal”. It has been a gut-wrenching, distressing period of her life. Regardless, it’s being celebrated around black Australia. Press releases are pouring in from black institutions all over the nation offering their support and admiration. I’ve never even heard of some of the organisations.

    Scrymgour’s resignation came about two months too late. As Minister for Education, she presided over the axing of bi-lingual education in NT schools, a no-brainer policy which has outraged Aboriginal people around the country. A wealth of international research shows that it’s vital young Aboriginal children learn in both their native tongue and English. But that’s another story for another day.

    The issue at hand here is the latest Labor treachery that tipped Scrymgour over the edge — her party’s recently announced “Homelands policy”.’

  33. [In that case, NOBODY can prdict what the result would be as decreed by the Tofu Brigade.]

    Then stop predicting!

    Antony Green and William Bowe has far more cred individually, and even more combined, than you. Why should anyone listen to you who is unknown in the psephologist world? Green and Bowe are respected, they say the Greens will retain it, so until then the reasonable person would lean to the side of the Greens retaining it, and all will be revealed at the next election. 😀

  34. My inside gossip is that Faulkner will not be replaced – ie no Special Minister for State. The next person to get a promotion will be Combet. The Defence Secretary had better start updating his resume.

  35. [And let’s not forget, the Liberal candidate got 30% at the last state election, and Labor on 38%. With incumbency, it is likely the Greens will win on preferences. Antony Green and William Bowe agree, you, who is unknown to the psephology world, don’t. Boo hoo.]

    And if the Liberals decide NOOT to preference the Greens ?

    [you, who is unknown to the psephology world, don’t. Boo hoo.]

    So it’s ok for William and Antony to be the be and end all of phesphology then, and not the average mug voter.

    Now I’ve heard everything from the Tofu Brigade – Only Green Supporters are permitted to make prediuctions on Poll results.

  38. [United Nation Pan Asia Japanese Tohu Salad

    1.Japanese Silky Tohu – 2 tubes, slice to require thickness.
    2. Cabagges – dice very fine
    3. Carrot – dice very fine
    4. Bonito shave – available where japanese stuffs are sold – as garnish
    5. Chinese diced pork – as garnish
    6. Indonesian fried onion – as garnish

    Salad dressing:

    1. One tea spoon of japanese Wasabi paste
    2. 4 table spoons of Indonesian sweet soya sauce
    3. 4 table spoons of Japanese bonito soya sauce- available where japanese stuffs are sold
    4. 1 table spoon of japanese sesame salad dressing – available where japanese stuffs are sold
    5. 2 table spoons of extra virgin olive oil

    Mix them thoroughly. add extra wasabi to have more bite. Arrange diced cabbage and carrot as bed, put sliced tohu on top and pour salad dressing. Add the garnishes on top.]

    Never accuse me of not feeding you effing bludgers. This is MY recipe.

  40. [Green and Bowe are respected, they say the Greens will retain it, so until then the reasonable person would lean to the side of the Greens retaining it, and all will be revealed at the next election.]
    Wasn’t the Cunningham by-election result the result of a protest vote against the Labor candidate? She had been parachuted in via Labor H.Q., rather than pre-selected at the local level?

    Everyone expected that seat to go back to Labor at the election. Fremantle is a different story, the Labor candidate was a popular local personality.

  41. [Then stop predicting!

    Antony Green and William Bowe has far more cred individually, and even more combined, than you. Why should anyone listen to you who is unknown in the psephologist world? Green and Bowe are respected, they say the Greens will retain it, so until then the reasonable person would lean to the side of the Greens retaining it, and all will be revealed at the next election. 😀 ]

    And if they’re WRONG ?

    Stifling political debate – courtesy of the Tofu Brigade.

    And I thought the Libs were masters of the Art.

  43. [And if the Liberals decide NOOT to preference the Greens ?]

    Surely you wouldn’t accept Liberal preferences?

    You’ve virtually called the Greens evil right-wing lunatics for doing so. Though I’m not sure what the point of that is. Votes don’t belong to parties, they belong to people.

  44. [Surely you wouldn’t accept Liberal preferences?

    You’ve virtually called the Greens evil right-wing lunatics for doing so. Though I’m not sure what the point of that is. Votes don’t belong to parties, they belong to people.]

    The Libs and Labor have previously done preference deals before – to put One Nation LAST.

    But the Tofu Brigade would rather be pure of heart.

  45. Trying out my looking glass:

    Within the next 10 years in NT politics, there may be an Indigenous Party which will have the balance of power.

    Within 50 years it is likely to rule the Northern Territory in its own right.

  46. [Stifling political debate – courtesy of the Tofu Brigade.]
    Explain how that post constituted “stifling political debate”? Did Bob have your internet connection cut off temporarily?

  47. Australia Defence Association executive director Neil James seems to have no doubt that tjhe Rudd Government will be easily returned at the next election.

    This could easily be classified as an “own goal” by Turnbull’s Libs.

    [“This bloke’s knowledge of defence matters is deep and extensive and that’s no doubt why the prime minister has chosen him because it would be hard to parachute someone else in with no background in defence matters.”

    Mr James said the only downside could be if Senator Faulkner chose to retire at the next election, thus requiring the prime minister to find another defence minister.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/defence-analysts-welcome-faulkner-appointment-20090605-by75.html

  48. [And if the Liberals decide NOOT to preference the Greens ?]

    They will.

    [So it’s ok for William and Antony to be the be and end all of phesphology then, and not the average mug voter.

    Now I’ve heard everything from the Tofu Brigade – Only Green Supporters are permitted to make prediuctions on Poll results.]

    Thats right, completely ignore what I said. I clearly said that you have a right to your opinion but why should anyone believe it over Antony Green and William Bowe? Everyone in the psephology world knows them. Who are you exactly?

  49. [And if they’re WRONG ? ]

    And if you’re wrong? No reputation lost, because you have none. Antony and William do.

  50. SO

    It’s getting like Sarah Palin now isn’t it? Remember her saying that the press criticising her was an attack on freedom of speech and they should be banned from disagreeing with her.

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