Newspoll: 55-45

Breaking news: Newspoll has Labor’s lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. Since you all know about it by now, a link will suffice (although I will observe that Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings seem to have bottomed out). Here’s a first: Essential Research has the same result as Newspoll, with Labor’s lead plunging from 59-41 to 55-45. Further questions focus on the parties’ capacity to handle various issues, emissions trading schemes and climate change, and perceptions of politicians’ honesty (better than you might think).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,843 thoughts on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. The Opposition claims it has more dirt on former defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon, after he stood down yesterday following a series of scandals.

    The man who led the charge against the former defence minister, Western Australian Senator David Johnston, has told ABC News Radio that he has more to dish up.

    “There are a few more shots, and you’ll just have to wait and see what comes out,” he said.

    Senator Johnston says his source was not from the former minister’s office.

    “I have not been relying on anyone in his office talking to me directly,” he said.

    “I have been relying on the assistance of a number of people though, that are not within the [former

    minister’s staff.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/05/2590804.htm

  2. GG, quite so. If the Russell Hill Colonel Blimps didn’t like Fitzgibbon, they will soon detest Faulkner. He’s much nastier and ten times as smart.

    It’s hilarious how many heavy hitters Labor has as parliamentary secretaries or backbenchers, compared to the Liberals who don’t even have enough talent to come up with an electable shadow cabinet.

  3. Frank, keep dreaming, mate.

    News flash: we do not have a first-past-the-post electoral system.

    If the Liberals run a candidate in Fremantle, Carles will get their preferences, and she will win.

    I’ve upset the Tofu Brigade AGAIN for stating a political fact – and you’re dreraming if the Libs would’ve preferenced the Greens.

    Oh and yhou’re beloved Adele has finally spoken up since winning the vy-election.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/05/2589991.htm

  4. “I have been relying on the assistance of a number of people though, that are not within the [former

    minister’s staff.”]]
    Isn’t this an admission that they are in the department of defence?

  5. It wasn’t a miserable day. It was the day the people of Australia voted to save themselves and coming generations of employees from virtual serfdom. That’s your descendants, too. Rejoice!

  7. Ah, Adam. Albert Park. Just like Labor made a mess of their magnificent opportunity to win Mayo in 2008.

    Now, now, Rebecca, if you’re going to spar with me, you need to know what you’re talking about. Labor will never win Mayo no matter what we do, which is why we didn’t bother contesting the by-election. It was your seat to win and you didn’t, although I agree you did quite well, since the area is full rich greenies. Albert Park on the other hand is prime Green territory – I know because I lived there for 21 years. The Greens seriously wanted to win the by-election and gave themselves a fair chance of doing so. They failed because they picked a dud candidate and because they allowed their campaign to be distracted by Labor’s little provocations. Instead of campaigning on their own issues, they spent the campaign wailing about Labor’s dirty tactics. Even if our tactics were dirty (which I deny), it was an elementary campaign error to respond to them.

  8. What the hell is first class about Arbib?

    Seriously, I would genuinely like people to back up these claims that people like Arbib and Kelly are the greatest thing since sliced bread.

    It seems to be the fashion these days to say ex-high ranking union or Labor officials are brilliant and would be great ministers. It just looks like an attempt to appear clued in rather than a reflection on their actual qualities.

  9. While I believe Faulkner will be good for Defence, I am a bit sorry he is going.

    He has done a fantastic job cleaning up much of the sleaze that came to be regarded as normal under successive Howard/Costello Governments.

    In the beginning the Howard/Costello sleaze resulted in a steady drizzle of sackings and rightfully so. Then Howard realized that he was saddled with a bunch peppered with petty thieves so he ignored his own rules. No-one was sacked anymore. But everyone was allowed to pay back their takings when caught.

    A big thank you to Faulkner for a job well done and best wishes for Defence.

  11. Dave – in a rare even, the ABS responded to Minack and complete pwnd him.

    That was an extremely poor or lazy effort from Minack seemingly not even knowing the basic stuff that had been out there for years and, being scolded severely by the ABS.

    The Age is really sinking fast, low quality stuff sneaking in and ethics falling fast.

    They lowered themselves to use a xenophobia based campaign on JF and also decided they would help the Defence campaign to undermine JF.

    Lets hope that the new additions to Defence don’t stop with Faulkner.

  12. This is from the same party hacks that think Arbib and Shorten have talent. LOL

    And next year your party will have 21 members over the age of 64!

  13. Oz

    Arbib has had quite a few interesting jobs according to wiki.

    He’s worked at Sizzler (where he seems to have brought the union in to negotiate contracts for part-timers, which may have contributed to Sizzler’s demise). He’s also been a metal trades assistant, beach inspector and restaurant cook.

    But he’s basically a party hack.

  14. Funny thing is Frank, both Pollbludger’s William Bowe and ABC’s Antony Green say the Greens have a good chance of retaining the seat at the next election. I’ll believe them over biased pro-Labor anti-Green supporters with no real experience such as yourself.

  15. It seems to be the fashion these days to say ex-high ranking union or Labor officials are brilliant and would be great ministers.

    Doesn’t the fact Kelly served our country in Iraq give him some credit?
    What about the fact he has a Ph.D. in Law?
    Arbib helped make Rudd P.M., so I think that counts for soemthing.

  16. No 2715

    I’ll give credit to Kelly where it’s due. He does have qualifications.

    As for Arbib, what useless hack. He’s has about as much talent as Wilson Tuckey’s smoting stick.

  18. It seems to be the fashion these days to say are brilliant and would be great ministers.

    No, it seems to be the fashion to discount them because they are ex-high ranking union or Labor officials.

  19. If I were those toads somewhere in Defence I would have taken notice of what Rudd did to Telstra.

    And even more fearful is that after the election if Labor win the Senate would be amenable to further laws increasing the accountablility within Defence.

    Someone was obvioiusly were looking for the satisfaction of hurting JF but foolishly didn’t think of the consequences beyond that.

  20. If I’d been out till quarter to three
    Would you lock the door,
    Will you still need me, will you still feed me,
    When I’m sixty-four?

    The Australian people have resoundingly said NO! 😀

  21. Who will Rudd trust to replace Faulkner as Special Minister for Politics – oops State. I do not have a clue.

    But I bet Faulkner’s tenure as Defence Minister is temporary. He is there to do a job. He will spend 3-4 years sorting out the mess, then return to being Minister without portfolio.

  23. As for Arbib, what useless hack. He’s has about as much talent as Wilson Tuckey’s smoting stick.

    I don’t think party hackdom should automatically disqualify someone from being a politician.

  24. High-ranking union officials are job and business killers.

    Bob Hawke’s government was the best thing that ever happened to the Australian economy.

  25. I’m not discounting them, I’m wondering why they’re constantly touted as being some kind of incredible talent. It’s also often mentioned that “They’ve done a great job so far”.

  26. But he’s basically a party hack.

    That discounts him because? That means he hasn’t got a brain or ability because?

  28. He will spend 3-4 years sorting out the mess, then return to being Minister without portfolio.

    3-4 years in the same portfolio is a long time… Not quite temporary.

  29. Funny thing is Frank, both Pollbludger’s William Bowe and ABC’s Antony Green say the Greens have a good chance of retaining the seat at the next election. I’ll believe them over biased pro-Labor anti-Green supporters with no real experience such as yourself.

    And William predicted that Tagliaferri would narrowly win in the first place 🙂

    So even Sir William of the Bowe can be wrong.

    Oh and I love how the Tofu brgade resort to personal attacks 🙂 And the I’m using the Tofu Brigade as a Broad Term for Greens supporters and those swingers who swing towards them.

  30. What’s first-class about Arbib? Well, this critique of the Liberals’ handling of the economy for starters …

    During the Howard-Costello years and despite the rivers of gold from mining royalties, funding of Australia’s education system actually fell and the country is now recovering from having the second lowest education funding in the developed world.

    Under the Liberals, spending on health care dropped five per cent in real terms and, amazingly at a time when the country’s economy was expanding, our infrastructure spending went backwards.

    The respected BHP Billiton chairman Don Argus claims that Australia’s infrastructure capital stock to GDP ratio fell by a whopping 10 per cent over the past 12 years.

    Thanks to the Howard-Costello years, the Rudd Government would need to spend $103 billion on infrastructure to get spending back to where it was in the 1990s.

    By Mark Arbib, The Sunday Telegraph, 14 September 2008
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24340462-5007146,00.html

  31. 3-4 years in the same portfolio is a long time… Not quite temporary.

    Compared to the time spent in Parliament – it is not a long time. 😛

  32. What’s first-class about Arbib? Well, this critique of the Liberals’ handling of the economy for starters …

    There’s nothing in that article that hasn’t been said by almost everyone on this site many times.

  33. And William predicted that Tagliaferri would narrowly win in the first place

    So even Sir William of the Bowe can be wrong.

    Any commentator can be wrong. But the circumstances have changed now – the Greens and Adele have the power of incumbency. Antony and William are seasoned commentators. You’re just pro-Labor anti-Green with no real experience.

    Oh and I love how the Tofu brgade resort to personal attacks. And the I’m using the Tofu Brigade as a Broad Term for Greens supporters and those swingers who swing towards them.

    Pot, kettle etc.

  35. Before the election the consensus was that the Labor front bench was a lot of useless hacks. Now the consensus is that they’re all geniuses. Just more evidence of how the media (including blogmedia) is shallow and hunts in a pack. The truth is that it varies from very good to average, as do most government front benches.

    As to Arbib, none of you here know whether he has real talent or not, you’re just venting your respective party lines. The person who does know is Rudd, and he has promoted Arbib at the first opportunity and seems likely to promote him again soon. Draw your own conclusions.

  36. I’m wondering why they’re constantly touted as being some kind of incredible talent

    Because ONE thing political parties needs are some people that know how to keep the machinery of the party together. Such as so the National Executive of the Party, and the Parliamentary Party support the same policies.

    Arbib was instrumental in swinging most of the NSW Right behind Rudd as leader when Beazley’s media performances were slipping. I think we can say in retrospect that was a good call.

  38. Isn’t the opposite of temporary permanent? Why isn’t 3 to 4 years temporary?

    How long is a piece of string?

  39. You’re just pro-Labor anti-Green with no real experience.

    And you just justanswered your own question re PERSONAL attacks.

    Pot, kettle etc.

    Tofu Brigade is a BROLAD BRUSH reference.

    BIG Difference.

  40. Before the election the consensus was that the Labor front bench was a lot of useless hacks.

    I’m more interested in who Labor managed to get elected in 2007. Labor had far better candidates at that election.

  42. As to Arbib, none of you here know whether he has real talent or not, you’re just venting your respective party lines.

    Not really. People keep saying he’s really talented, is doing a good job and would be exellent in the ministry. I’m asking why.

    Apparently he’s got a brain. Well that’s something.

    Arbib was instrumental in swinging most of the NSW Right behind Rudd as leader when Beazley’s media performances were slipping.

    I’m aware of his power as a factional warlord. I’m not sure what this has to do with potential parliamentary responsibility.

  43. 2732 Oz – Ok, I give up. Tell me what is wrong with Arbib. You obviously have some information on him that says he is no good.

  44. Why isn’t 3 to 4 years temporary?

    In the context of how long ministers stay in respective portfolio’s is quite a long time. You have an annoying habit of taking personal offence to everything, relax.

  47. And you just justanswered your own question re PERSONAL attacks.

    A personal attack is calling something that someone is not. “Tofu brigade” is a literary creation used as an insult. Are you honestly denying that you’re pro-Labor anti-Green, or denying that you have no real experience in comparison to William Bowe and Antony Green?

    You’re in to the personal attacks. I’m just stating the truth. Maybe the truth hurts?

  49. But the circumstances have changed now – the Greens and Adele have the power of incumbency.

    And so did Michael Organ the Greens Federal Member for Cunningham, and guess what – he LOST !!!!.

    But the Tofu Brigade convienently omit that little detail 🙂

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