Itchy trigger fingers

Seems Morgan are having one of their occasional weeks off. Plenty of federal preselection action to report, as the parties prepare contingencies for a potential early election:

The Australian’s Michael Owen reports South Australian Labor is finalising its federal preselections, which “senior factional figures” link to a potential early election. Mia Handshin is keen to run again, either in a second tilt at Sturt or where Nicole Cornes failed in Boothby. Cornes herself has found an interesting new line of work as an industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, but is “unlikely to win preselection”. A “senior ALP figure” nonetheless claims she is a genuine future prospect. Owen also reckons Labor Senator Dana Wortley faces electoral oblivion through “moves to relegate her to an unwinnable third spot”, although it was from that unwinnable position that she actually won her seat in 2004.

• Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam has withdrawn from the contest to succeed Petrio Georgiou as Liberal candidate for Kooyong. He has thrown his support behind industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto, who looms as a threat to merchant banker Josh Frydenberg’s long-held designs on the seat. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports Pesutto also has the support of Ted Baillieu, who angered the Frydenberg camp by attending a function they “claim was to support Mr Pesutto”. Wallace also notes the June preselection will be “one of the first carried out under the Liberal Party’s new constitution, which empowers all eligible members within a seat to vote instead of only specially chosen delegates”. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews is told that “many of them … will be swinging votes with a history of supporting Baillieu/Petro or at least having a significant amount of affection for them or an in-built objection to the recruiting enthusiasms of Joshua”.

• Another interesting preselection for the Victorian Liberals looms in the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin, where two former members are hoping to make a comeback. One is Phil Barresi, who lost the seat to Labor’s Mike Symon in 2007. The other is Ken Aldred, whose eccentric reign extended from 1990 until his preselection defeat by Barresi in 1996. Aldred won a preselection ballot in Holt ahead of the 2007 election, but it was overturned by wiser heads in the party. Rounding out the field of known contenders is Deanna Ryall, a “local businesswoman”. Labor holds the seat with a margin of 1.4 per cent.

• New Queensland Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek foreshadows a more “flexible” approach than his predecessor in negotiating fixed four-year terms, improving the prospects for a referendum on the matter during the current term. Langbroek says it is not a priority, but Anna Bligh has apparently put the matter “on the agenda”. A referendum in 1991 for unfixed four-year terms was defeated with a 51.2 per cent no vote.

Antony Green on the slow death of the election night tally room:

The next South Australian election will be the first conducted without a tallyroom. Both Victoria and NSW have also decided not to hold tallyroms at state elections due in November 2010 and March 2011. These state decisions may yet play a part in deciding whether free to air broadcasters attend the next Federal tallyroom. There were serious noise problems in the tallyroom in 2007, Sky News already bases its coverage from studio, and hosting from a studio would save the ABC and other free-to-air broadcasters considerable amounts of money and allow greater use of studio technology.

• I am maintaining elsewhere progressively updated posts on two looming electoral events: the May 16 Fremantle by-election and May 2 Tasmanian upper house elections.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

759 comments on “Itchy trigger fingers”

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  1. The more problems we solve, the more we reduce the Big Problem to one thing: over-population.

    And there’s nothing we can do about that.

    Don’t agree, lock up the pope and educate the women would be a good start.

  2. Diogenes

    The nuclear industry is a package, for immediate deaths look no further than Russia. The deaths from lower exposure take some time. Lower doses are required to make you sterile, but your a doctor I’m sure you have listen to the warnings about exposure to x rays. Gamma rays are a lot more energetic and as a result require lower exposures to create similar problems.

  3. [Mathematically, today there are more people alive than have ever lived, in all of history. ]

    Um, the estimated total number of humans who have ever lived is something over 100 billion. The population today is 6.7 billion. Population is still increasing, but not exponentially – overall the rate of increase is slowing, so it will never reach the levels Diogenes suggests.

  4. [We’ve been generating nuclear waste for 50 years now. What harm has it done?

    I truly can’t be bothered listing them all:]

    Actually you haven’t listed any. None of those incidents involved nuclear waste. Given the number of nuclear power plants in the world, I am pleasantly surprised to see how few incidents there have been, and how trivial most of them have been. So thanks for that link.

  5. [I truly can’t be bothered listing them all:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civilian_nuclear_accidents%5D
    This entire list proposes fatalities for 1) those associated with Chernobyl and 1 person from the radiation effects of 3 Mile Island.

    One of the events listed is people dying on a Soviet submarine, but that doesn’t count as the nuclear power industry, that is military.
    [The biggest problem however is the loss of civil liberties required to run a nuclear industry. ]
    What? OK tomorrow, try to break into your nearest power station, and then come back and report what the security guards at the station do to your civil liberties.
    [The nuclear industry is a package, for immediate deaths look no further than Russia. The deaths from lower exposure take some time.]
    And then you’d have to take into account deaths caused by chest x-rays, or UV light, or airplane flights, or medical isotopes, or people living near hills.

  6. Will be interesting if the hold true to the…’..experienced reporters writing unbiased, long-form stories, analyses, and profiles..’

    [AOL to Launch Politics News Site
    AOL is jumping into news with both feet. Its latest venture is a site devoted to Washington, PoliticsDaily.com, that goes live Monday. “Most news outlets are a product in search of an audience. We have readers in search of a product,” says editor Melinda Henneberger. Hers will be unusual in the digital age: old school, experienced reporters writing unbiased, long-form stories, analyses, and profiles.]
    http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/4/25/aol-to-launch-politics-news-site.html

  7. [Why bother, most don’t even have security.]
    Prove it, break into one to show that your civil liberties aren’t curbed at regular power stations already operating.

  8. The reason for the “lol” was that I had to linked to an example of environmental damage caused by the so called “safe” storage of nuclear waste a mere few posts earlier.

  9. The question itself is a red herring as those asking it are proposing a far greater role for nuclear power in energy generation and thus a much larger amount of nuclear waste – increasing the chances for environmental and/or human damage.

  10. Also, from Wikipedia:

    “At Maxey Flat, a low-level radioactive waste facility located in Kentucky, containment trenches covered with dirt, instead of steel or cement, collapsed under heavy rainfall into the trenches and filled with water. The water that invaded the trenches became radioactive and had to be disposed of at the Maxey Flat facility itself. In other cases of radioactive waste accidents, lakes or ponds with radioactive waste accidentally overflowed into the rivers during exceptional storms.[citation needed] In Italy, several radioactive waste deposits let material flow into river water, thus contaminating water fit for domestic use.[48] In France, in the summer of 2008 numerous incidents happened;[49] in one, at the Areva plant in Tricastin, it was reported that during a draining operation liquid containing untreated uranium overflowed out of a faulty tank and about 75 kg of the radioactive material seeped into the ground and, from there, into two rivers nearby;[50]; in another case, over 100 staff were contaminated with low doses of radiation.[51]”

  11. Well Oz, if the number of nuclear power plants currently operating is x, and the number of deaths caused by waste from those plants is zero, as seems to be the case, then if the number of plants is increased by, let’s say, ten times, to x times 10, then the number of deaths will increase by a similar ratio, to zero times 10, which is, um, zero. QED?

  12. Oz

    I can’t find any reference in that to any illness let alone a death. Even if we have ten times as many nuclear power stations, the negligible number of deaths is still negligible.

  13. [The scientist appointed by the federal government to monitor the environmental impact of the Northern Territory’s Ranger uranium mine, Alan Hughes, confirmed at a March 12 Senate hearing that contaminated water was leaking into rock fissures beneath Kakadu National Park. Up to 100,000 litres of contaminated water from the mine tailings dam is escaping every day, said the March 13 Age. “There have been more than 150 leaks, spills and licence breaches at the Ranger uranium mine since it opened in 1981″, the Age reported.]

    Of course this may only affect aboriginals as Marlinga did so may not count.

    There were also other cases where good white folk, miners, were contaminated by radioactive water.

  14. Ignoring the hilarious logical and scientific premise of that post, there’s one more issue. “Harm” is not completely restricted to “human death”. If you think the death of a person is the worst, or only bad thing, that can be damaging to the environment then there’s little point on continuing with this discussion.

    To summarise, there’s three key flaws in your approach.

    1) You believe that the only measure of damage or harm is the number of human deaths.

    2) Following, you believe that since that’s the case, no damage has occurred.

    3) You don’t wish to accept that the increase in waste will increase the chance further incidents occurring. The probability is disconnected from past events. Just because there hadn’t been a death from plane crashes until 1908 did not mean that increasing the number of planes in the sky would result in that number remaining at zero.

  15. [Just because there hadn’t been a death from plane crashes until 1908 did not mean that increasing the number of planes in the sky would result in that number remaining at zero.]

    And you accuse me of hilarious logic?

    Obviously there were no plane crashes before there were planes. By contrast, we have had nuclear power plants since 1954, and there are now about 400 of them. The amount of harm they have caused, however defined, and even including Chernobyl, has been trivial, and certainly vastly less than that caused by coal-fired plants, even aside from CC.

  16. [Obviously there were no plane crashes before there were planes.]

    No crap, that’s why I picked the date of the first plane crash death and not the first plane flight.

    [certainly vastly less than that caused by coal-fired plants]

    I don’t recally anywhere ever suggesting that this wasn’t the case. But we aren’t talking about nuclear vs. coal. We’re talking about phasing out coal and discussing what to replace it with. Good try.

  17. Unless you can show us how renewables can produce the power we currently get by burning coal, then yes we are discussing coal v nuclear. Believe me, I would love to be persuaded on this point, but so far I’m not.

  18. [At Maxey Flat, a low-level radioactive waste facility located in Kentucky, containment trenches covered with dirt, instead of steel or cement, collapsed under heavy rainfall into the trenches and filled with water.]
    We have low level radiation stored in hospital basements around our entire country. Are you honestly suggesting that it is safer keeping low level radiation there, rather than in a dedicated and purpose built waste dump?
    [We’re talking about phasing out coal and discussing what to replace it with.]
    We don’t JUST need to REPLACE power sources, we actually need MORE POWER. By 2050 we will need DOUBLE the electricity generation we have now, EVEN IF we are able to improve efficiency by 10%

    So the need for using technologies such as nuclear is even GREATER than simply a need to SUBSTITUTE, we actually need ADDITIONAL sources of power far beyond what we are currently producing.

  19. [3) You don’t wish to accept that the increase in waste will increase the chance further incidents occurring. ]
    And you don’t wish to accept that if there is more nuclear power, there will be more investment into waste storage solutions because there will be more demand for such technologies.

  20. BTW, sloppy journalism as usual. The Pratt charges werent DROPPED the case was suspended by the prosecution due to his health. Big difference

  21. Oz, more people have died from war, famine, cigarettes and most probably alcohol related violence than have died from nuclear waste – at least on the available evidence. Your hysterical opposition to nuclear power is silly.

    The most well-known nuclear disaster was due to rank incompetence and poor technology. Any 21st century nuclear plant would be miles ahead in safety, technology and efficiency. Bring it on.

    This should not be taken as opposing renewable energy but we should not put all our eggs in one basket. There should be a mix of technologies. I, for one, support decentralising distribution and generation by having all houses be installed with solar panels for example.

  22. [This should not be taken as opposing renewable energy but we should not put all our eggs in one basket.]
    Even massive renewable advocates say AT BEST we would only be able to have about 40% of our energy generated by renewables by 2040. That leaves a massive gap that I think should be filled by nuclear and some gas, instead of coal.

  23. [Is Media Watch running a thing against Peter Popov, the huckster religious scammer?]
    Very interesting. But what’s it got to do with watching the media?

  24. [Very interesting. But what’s it got to do with watching the media?]
    Channel 9 runs is infomercials even though he is a proven scammer.

    Holmes argues that it shows a problem with regulation, if he is paying them to run the infomercial then it is an advert, but if he is donating the show to 9 who run it then it would be a programme that would be subject to the FACTS rules. Channel 9 refused to disclose to Media Watch if they are paid for the show.

  25. GP @ 579, let them put it in your back yard then.

    Oz isn’t the only one who doesn’t like it and I suggest those of you who do write your mp’s and volunteer your neighborhoods …..

  26. On environmental matters here in WA ….

    [
    Government and traditional owners sign off gas hub

    27th April 2009, 14:45 WST

    The Kimberley Land Council has signed off on an in-principle agreement to develop a liquefied natural gas precinct near Broome.

    In a ceremony at the James Price Point site, 60km north of the tourist centre, Federal Resources Minister Martin Ferguson joined Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett, Woodside chief Don Voelte and KLC chief executive officer Wayne Bergmann for the signing of the heads of agreement.

    Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett has said a number of important steps remained before the hub gained any final approval, and a full environmental impact assessment would not be completed until next year.

    Mr Barnett said the broad agreement marked the start of heritage, environmental and social impact studies within the James Price Point area.

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=138415
    ]

  27. [Oz isn’t the only one who doesn’t like it and I suggest those of you who do write your mp’s and volunteer your neighborhoods ]
    Only after you write and volunteer for a coal fired power station in your back yard.

  28. Ah, I see from the Media Watch website that he’s on Australian TV now.

    [In the UK, the Advertising Standards Authority banned Popoff’s infomercials two years ago.

    But in Australia, so far, the regulators have done nothing. ]

  29. Gee Tony Jones absolutely destroyed Plimer. Exposed him as no better then Andrew Bolt, and just out to sell books. Didn’t think Tony had it in him but he sure did his research.

  30. No 589

    Pilger is a bit of a fruit cake. If you watch his recent documentary “The War on Democracy” he essentially praises Hugo Chavez and spends the whole time bashing America. So much for journalistic integrity.

  31. Must admit to a skim over the nuclear issue. Not that I care, it ain’t going to happen…but…

    Did anyone mention the fact that even uranium will run out?

    I read a little time ago that as a resource it has about seventy years to run.

    Not a good look when one thinks of its real life.

  32. [If you watch his recent documentary “The War on Democracy” he essentially praises Hugo Chavez and spends the whole time bashing America.]
    I don’t know if we should call that a documentary. 😀 The guy is a nutcase, i mean he openly advocated that Iraqis should kill Australian soldiers. Enough said.
    [I read a little time ago that as a resource it has about seventy years to run.]
    This is untrue, generation IV breeder reactors breed more fuel than they use.

  33. Gosh o Gosh Sorry about that lengthy piece.

    Didn’t realise select and copy my email from Crikey The Publication, not me, would give us quite all that! And that is what was sent to my email box. Who needs to subscribe??

    My interest is the supposed Afghani’s letter and why and how was this weird rubbish sent to my email address?

    Crikey The Publication using info via The Pollbludger? Cannot imagine how other.

    Abuse of William, and me, if so.

    Ignore content after..

    ‘Quite possibly the country’s niftiest blog network’.

  34. ‘I read a little time ago that as a resource it has about seventy years to run.

    This is untrue, generation IV breeder reactors breed more fuel than they use’.

    WHAT?

  35. [Pilger is reminiscent of a male version of Germaine Greer. UnAustralian and repulsive.]

    GP, that comment tells us nothing about Greer or Pilger but plenty about GP.

  36. http://www.theage.com.au/national/mps-pay-rise-adds-insult-to-injury-20090427-akob.html?page=-1

    [LABOR and the Coalition have defended a $4700 increase in the electorate allowance for federal politicians, despite calls by crossbench senators to defer or scrap the rise due to the recession.

    Any part of the allowance not used on electorate expenses within the financial year can be kept by the MP, and is taxed as personal income.]

    I never knew that! I always thought it could only be used for costs on servicing the electorate only.

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