Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s lead moderating slightly to 61-39 from 63-37 in the previous two surveys. In other findings, 54 per cent approve of the government’s national broadband network, while 62 per cent think Australia’s economy “better than most countries” in the current global financial crisis. For this, equal credit is given to “the actions of the Rudd government – including the stimulus packages” and a well-regulated finance and banking sector. “The Howard government’s handling of the economy” ranks somewhat lower. Also featured are questions on potential budget measures, the role of human rights in international trade, and China’s human rights record.

What’s more:

• George Megalogenis of The Australian charts the rise of the centre left with reference to long-term Newspoll trends.

• Glenn Milne of The Australian has written a skeptically received article which speaks of plotting against Julie Bishop partly motivated by Senator Mathias Cormann’s designs on her blue-ribbon seat of Curtin. Andrew Bolt has published Cormann’s denial.

• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn advises the government to get hip by allowing voters to enrol online.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian notes the Victorian ALP is struggling to meet its affirmative action quota of 35 per cent female candidates in winnable seats, making it “almost imperative that a woman replaces a retiring woman, and that at least one in two of all retiring men are replaced by women”. While little action is expected ahead of the next federal election, speculation is said to surround the state seats of Craig Langdon (Ivanhoe), Peter Batchelor (Thomastown), Lynne Kosky (Altona) and John Pandazopoulos (Dandenong). More substantially, “former speaker Judy Maddigan has confirmed she will retire and she is expected to support former Labor staffer Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace her in the seat of Essendon”.

• Adelaide’s Independent Weekly reports on Malcolm Mackerras’s tip for next year’s state election: Labor to be comfortably returned, with the loss of only Norwood, Mawson and Light. The report notes something I had neglected to relate previously: SA Murray Irrigators Association chair Tim Whetstone was preselected in November as the Liberal candidate for Nationals MP Karlene Maywald’s seat of Chaffey, ahead of Citrus Growers of SA president Mark Chown and businessman Brian Barnett. Mackerras tips Whetstone to win.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a post on whether the federal parliament should be enlarged, with reference to international practice.

• Possum notes the cubic polynomial distribution of two-party electorate results, and its implications for interpreting marginal seat exit polls.

Courtesy of the April edition of the invaluable Democratic Audit Update:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will hold a “roundtable public hearing” on submissions to the green paper on campaign finance at Parliament House on Thursday, from 9.30am to 1pm.

• The Greens’ “parliamentary contract” with Labor’s minority government in the Australian Capital Territory is reviewed by Jenny Stewart in the Canberra Times.

• Brian Costar examines Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn’s demolition of the spurious justifications for the Howard government’s 2005 electoral “reforms” at Inside Story.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the electoral demise of the Australian Democrats by Cathy Madden.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,454 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

Comments Page 27 of 30
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  1. No 1296

    Adam, I agree. Now tell your friends that I’m not a racist for criticising a soft immigration policy.

  2. [On PerthNow yesterday, it was saying Barnett’s source was the WA Emergency Services and the Navy.]

    And yet he didn’t learn from Howard and Children Overboard. But then again, Libs never learn.

  5. Racists like GP can’t see that they’re racist. They’re the types that think aboriginals were lawless and nomadic 🙂

  6. [Now tell your friends that I’m not a racist for criticising a soft immigration policy.]

    It is not racist to advocate that Australia has a right to protect its borders against illegal immigration. I don’t accept that we have a “soft immigration policy.”

  7. No 1300

    GG, there is nothing disingenuous about it. Barnett sought advice, was given that advice and he relayed that advice. If it turns out that the advice was wrong, he can correct the record thereafter.

    The thing is, he looks infinitely more composed than Debus, who was at pains to avoid answering questions.

  9. No 1305

    There you go again Bob. At no time have I ever said that Aborigines are intrinsically inferior to Europeans or other races.

  10. [At no time have I ever said that Aborigines are intrinsically inferior to Europeans or other races.]

    All I said was that you claimed aboriginals are lawless and nomadic. Which you did.

    🙂

  12. Debus was at pains to avoid answering questions because that is the responsible thing to do given there are three official inquiries into the incident none of which are complete.

  14. I hardly doubt these people were genuine refugees the ones that are are still probably in Afghanistan or Pakistan who cannot afford to pay the people smugglers.

  16. No 1310

    And, you called me a racist (the definition being that you think one race is intrinsically inferior to another).

    But, given your inability to consult dictionaries, you are a waste of time.

  17. So Glen, people flee their country in boats because they have a reasonable standard of living at home and are in no danger. Does that ring true to you?

  18. [“In the latest in a stream of accounts from the Elysee Palace, Mr Sarkozy has been quoted as telling an all-party group of MPs that Mr Obama was inexperienced and indecisive.]

    GG, Is Sarkozy channeling the 3 Amigos of PB?

  19. GP, you are being very disingenuous here.
    [At no time have I ever said that Aborigines are intrinsically inferior to Europeans or other races.]
    You should go back and read the comments you wrote last night.
    You don’t have to say the Aborigines are intrinsically inferior to Europeans to be racist.
    Last night you were convinced that every thing about pre-invasion Aboriginal society was inferior to European society. You indicated that you thought this gave ‘us’ the right to tell them where and how to live now.
    You might not think you are racist, but your attidude leapt off the page at many of us who read your posts last night. It was a sickening display of ignorance, arrogance and yes, racism.

  20. Racists, Criminals, Cheats, Liars and yes even Politicians can be incredibly composed and sound perfectly reasonable when lying through their teeth.

    That is indeed a very high benchmark.

  21. GB they had the cash to come out here that means they werent poor.

    The people who are genuinely refugees are still languishing in Pakistani camps!

  23. 1310,

    bob1234 and GP,

    Good point 😉 ….. If “lawless and nomadic” aren’t descriptive adjectives meaning “intrinsically inferior” {GP’s words in both cases in “…” }, then give us another synonym for them, GP. Failing a specific synoym for “lawless and nomadic” from your fingers, a reasonable person would assume, in context, that you were complaining about Aborigines not being up to your standards, i.e “inferior” ….

  25. “A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it..”

    The definition of a refugee.

    Given that the vast majority of asylum seekers who arrive by boat are granted refugee status why are they a threat to our National Security?

  26. [GB they had the cash to come out here that means they werent poor]

    So you have to have $0 to your name to be a refugee? Good lord you live in a dreamland Glen…

  27. 1321
    Glen you should work in Immigration. We could save ourselves millions in Public Servants salaries whose job it is to find out exactly the information you already know on all these individuals.

  28. I don’t know what GP actually said, but it’s not racist to say that Aboriginal people were nomadic. Of course they were. “Lawless” would be factually incorrect. They had a very sophisticated system of laws – just not the same as western laws.

  29. GP,

    You seem to have swallowed a dictionary. Hasn’t worked though.

    You are like the three year old that likes to use big words because you like the sound of wind over your lips. You know, those fanning winds.

  30. [GB they had the cash to come out here that means they werent poor.]
    Then they had the money to wait and get on the plane like the majority of refugees.
    These cashed up, well bred people living with nothing to fear decided that a small boat in a dangerous ocean would be a nice way to travel.
    By the way Glen, did they get caught?

  31. No 1319

    Polyquats, it is indisputable that in all areas: art, language, science, civil development etc etc, Europeans had advanced beyond most of the rest of the world. That is not the same as saying that Europeans, by virtue of their race, are superior. And it is inherently wrong, offensive and obscene to suggest that I ever said that.

  33. Finns,

    I posted the story earlier.

    Of course, it would be interesting to know if Obama and the US have the postal address for France.

  35. [I don’t know what GP actually said, but it’s not racist to say that Aboriginal people were nomadic. Of course they were.]

    They don’t seem very nomadic to me.

  37. No 1334

    Thankyou Kevin Rudd for taking a stand. Now, will he put boat people in detention until their status can be properly determined?

  39. [Polyquats, it is indisputable that in all areas: art, language, science, civil development etc etc, Europeans had advanced beyond most of the rest of the world.]
    wtf?
    I call you racist, GP, and won’t back down. You should hear yourself!

  40. [1334 – So they shouldn’t bob?]

    Judge not lest ye be judged.

    Nobody should say that anybody else should “rot in hell”.

  41. [Now, will he put boat people in detention until their status can be properly determined?]
    Ever heard of Christmas Island?

  42. [Now, will he put boat people in detention until their status can be properly determined?]

    Labor were the ones to introduce mandatory detention.

  44. No 1339

    Polyquats, if I said the Amazonians were living primitive lifestyles and were far less advanced than Europeans, that is not racist, it is fact. However, European advancement is not due to some intrinsic biological superiority to other races.

  46. [PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd says people smugglers should “rot in hell”]

    I just saw the media conference on A-Pac and he said a number of times “rot in JAIL” not hell.

    Another example of the media spinning a certain angle to suit their aims.

  47. Bob, Rudd’s point, made in a colorful and headline-grabbing way, was that the focus should be on the smugglers not the asylum seekers. A very important change from the demonising of the past

  48. [They don’t seem very nomadic to me.]

    Those are not national boundaries, just general indications of language communities. Within those boundaries, most indigenous people moved around in an annual cycle dictated by climate, food sources and in some cases ritual requirements. They did not live in a fixed abode like agricultural people do. That’s what I mean by “nomadic.”

  50. A stand against people smugglers N.1337. No one doubts they should be incarcerated as the criminals they are

    People claiming refugee status should be treated with the respect and dignity circumstances allow, not used and abused for base political purposes.

    Show some humanity.

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