Some of the news that’s fit to print

It looked for a while as if Roy Morgan had returned to its weekly polling schedule, but that may have just been a short-term response to the stimulus package kerfuffle. In any event, there was no poll today. That being so, this week’s news nuggets will have to survive on their own:

• Alicia Bowie of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports on Labor aspirants for Macarthur, whose Liberal member Pat Farmer has long since stopped behaving like a man who cares if he gets re-elected. The narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007, local carpenter Nick Bleasdale, is again in the running, but faces competition from Camden councillor Greg Warren. However, “the ALP will wait until the new boundaries are decided late this year before selecting its candidates for local electorates”.

• Col Allison of the Hills News reports that David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive and staffer to John Howard – or as Allison would have it, “the ambitious Liberal Party stalwart lusting for a parliamentary career”, – has denied he will stand for preselection in Brendan Nelson’s seat of Bradfield. However, “insiders say he will try to win preselection for a State Liberal seat in the North-West at the May 2011 elections, upsetting the ambitions of other card-carrying right-wing conservatives, or even a sitting MP”. The seats mentioned are Riverstone, which is reasonably safe for Labor, and “even Baulkham Hills, in the unlikely event Wayne Merton, decides to step down”. Allison reports that Elliott “has the support of MLC David Clarke, controversial leader of the so-called Christian Right of the party and a back-room wheeler-dealer”, which is odd because he was put forward as the moderate candidate against Clarke protege Alex Hawke in Mitchell before the 2007 federal election.

• Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics reports that Michael Ferguson, defeated in Bass at the 2007 federal election, will run for the state seat at the March 2010 election.

• Matthew Franklin of The Australian reports that “Kevin Rudd has renewed his backing for four-year, fixed parliamentary terms but refused to criticise Queensland Premier Anna Bligh’s decision to call a state election six months before it was due”.

• Alex Mitchell in Crikey tells us we should “forget the nonsense written in The Australian about an early election being impossible”, because “the advance of Costello has spooked Labor which is now quietly preparing for an early election later this year”. We’ll see.

• There is a Queensland state election campaign in progress.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,256 comments on “Some of the news that’s fit to print”

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  3. It begins to look as though federal members for Bass only use the seat as a stepping stone into state politics: Sylvia Smith, Michelle O’Byrne, Michael Ferguson. What has become of Warwick Smith, by the way?

  4. [What has become of Warwick Smith, by the way?]
    He went into business. He was a delegate at the 20/20 summit too. He was in the innovation stream that Gillard led.

  6. ShowsOn from the last thread:

    A budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP doesn’t seem like such a big deal when you have zero debt, but when you currently have $11 trillion in debt and by 2013 comes around that will probably be more than $15 trillion, you have to wonder when the deficits are going to end.

  8. [“the advance of Costello has spooked Labor which is now quietly preparing for an early election later this year”. ]

    wtf??? Show me ONE (just one) poll that would give them any reason to be spooked?

  9. [you have to wonder when the deficits are going to end.]
    But the other side of the coin is if you try to cut the deficit too quickly, then you may just stop the recovery before it starts.

    Paul Krugman says this is exactly what happened in 1937. FDR managed to get the economy growing, with employment up (essentially because a heap of people were put on the federal payroll). Then in 1937 Republicans demanded he cut spending, and the result was growth slowed and unemployment started rising again.

    It doesn’t make sense to me to concentrate too much on the deficit until the economy is growing at 2 – 3% again.

  10. It is a joke isn’t it?
    The ALP being spooked by Costello. The journos can’t be that stupid, they must be spending too much time on the p*ss together and believing their own fantasy stories.

  12. [wtf??? Show me ONE (just one) poll that would give them any reason to be spooked?]
    That one that said Costello was the bigger cause of Liberal problems than Turnbull (60/40) would’ve spooked Costello.

  14. These inch fillers who insist on writing utter rubbish about Labor being ‘scared’ of Costello are such comedy. One wonders how they manage to keep themselves in employment, given the sheer volume of garbage that eminates from their fingertips. Not that they would care… the delusions would be so thorough that it must all seem like reality to them. Poor sods.

  17. [These inch fillers who insist on writing utter rubbish about Labor being ’scared’ of Costello are such comedy. One wonders how they manage to keep themselves in employment,]
    It’s just a sad fact that over the last 10 – 15 years or so, proper journalism has been taken over by opinion writing.

  18. [North 85* at lunch. I’d be bloody nervous if I was him.]

    Yes wouldn’t be eating too much (but I bet Hughes wishes he was feeling te same nerves!)

  19. If Krugman is satisfied then I will feel like there is some hope for them.

    ‘This budget looks very, very good.’ Krugman
    [On another front, it’s also heartening to see that the budget projects $645 billion in revenues from the sale of emission allowances. After years of denial and delay by its predecessor, the Obama administration is signaling that it’s ready to take on climate change.]
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/27/opinion/27krugman.html

  20. [It’s just a sad fact that over the last 10 – 15 years or so, proper journalism has been taken over by opinion writing.]

    Australian journalists no longer exist as far as I am concerned

  21. Grog

    I have lost all respect for you after that U2 comment. Forgive them for they know not what they do. 🙁

    A quick general question. Galaxy had Qld Labor as preferred manager in every category over the LNP in their poll this week EXCEPT Health. When was the last time Labor lost to the Libs on Health???

    (Mutters and shakes head ruefully)

  23. [It’s just a sad fact that over the last 10 – 15 years or so, proper journalism has been taken over by opinion writing.]

    The real sad fact is these opinion writers still call themselves journalists. I have no problems with someone writing opinion pieces, but please then don’t suggest you can also write objective researched articles. I don;t expect Philip Adams to be regarded as a journalist, and yet Janet A’s columns (for eg) get treated by The Oz at times like she has got some great scoop.

  25. Mmm, Macarthur. Could be very winnable or very unwinnable on the new boundaries, depending on where the commission decides to abolish a seat. Should the redistribution abolish a Sydney seat, then it’s possible that a sitting Labor MP would lay claim to Macarthur.

    I suspect Rivertstone will be eminently winnable for the NSW Libs the way the state Labor govt is travelling. They only need a 10% swing.

    Michael Ferguson is following the career path of Michelle O’Byrne…

    And yawn @ Alex Mitchell. What “advance”?

  28. [I have lost all respect for you after that U2 comment. Forgive them for they know not what they do. ]

    I’m used to it Dio!

    But I’ve been with them since I was 12, I can’t leave them now!

    Could’ve been worse I guess, when I was 12 I could have decided that Uncanny X-Men were to be my all time favourite band. 😆

  30. I’m surprised no one has mentioned Shannahan’s article today. Looks like he has been on the “Red Cordial” again.

    He has gotten so excited about the Coalition’s efforts to un-nerve Joel Fitzgibbon that he seems to have almost had an “Organism”.

    People must ensure they are seated in a secure chair to read this as personal injury could result from a fall whilst laughing uncontrollably.

    [Libs go hunting lame wildebeest]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25111814-7583,00.html

  31. Grog

    The Uncanny X-Men would have been better. At least you would have been forced to move on. When Obama chose U2 to play at his inauguration, I almost switched to backing Hillary to enact the Final Solution to the Obama Problem.

  32. [Paul Krugman says this is exactly what happened in 1937. FDR managed to get the economy growing, with employment up (essentially because a heap of people were put on the federal payroll). Then in 1937 Republicans demanded he cut spending, and the result was growth slowed and unemployment started rising again.]

    Yes, the “Roosevelt Recession”. Rather unfair to blame the Republicans however. FDR had just won a thumping re-election victory and the Democrats had lopsided majorities in both houses of Congress. It was FDR’s desire to repaire the budget balance, but he did so prematurely.

  35. [Yes wouldn’t be eating too much (but I bet Hughes wishes he was feeling te same nerves!)]
    Well Hughes can get another record – a pair on debut. I think Grahame Gooch has managed that.

  37. Mostly fair comment actually. Fitzgibbon may have been right on the facts of the matter but his defence was poor – he has been sick apparently. Once was the “$0 pauslip” was known to be bogus he should have stuck it right up Turnbull and Bishop, but he failed to do so.

  39. You would think some OO ‘journos’ would start to feel just a little embarrassed about continually and publically ‘self pleasuring’ themselves to satisfy the voyeuristic desires of a small group of the Howard faithful still committed to conservative political pornography.

    Libs go hunting…..lame wildebeest, could just as equally mean Bishop or Turnbull.

  40. [The simple fact is that Fitzgibbon’s poor parliamentary performance turned the political atmosphere and momentum in the Coalition’s favour just as the Rudd Government was expecting to further divide and demoralise the Opposition.]

    Oh geez Dennis. It’s a non-issue outside of parliament house. Momentum??? ffs. The LIbs came off the worst week they’ve had since the election, and because (as I do agree) Fitzgibbon had a bad day on Wednesday (but a good one on Thrusdya) he thins the LIbs are back in charge???

    Oh well, when you see a straw you might as well clutch it.

  42. Fitzgibbon was really not the same man i knew or the same parliamentary performer when he tried to defend himself in the House, him being ill probably would explain this…

    He should have made a bigger deal with the fact Bishop wouldnt table the document…that could have ended it then and there and constantly repeating the words of Senators in a committee just sounded weak…

    BTW Israel still dont have a government because Livni in having a hissy fit and wont come to the table with Bibi…

    btw GO NORTH!

  43. More Dennis:

    [Julia Gillard, the Government’s best parliamentary performer, made it a special mission to take on Pyne, who is her Opposition education counterpart, and tried to exploit Abbott’s disappointment at not being made manager of Opposition business and Pyne’s easily derided schoolboyish manner.

    It didn’t work because Pyne has already had everything thrown at him by his own South Australian Liberal colleagues and is immune to taunts, and because he diligently applied himself to parliamentary tactics. ]

    It did work, because nothing the SA Libs had thrown at Pyne had made front page news. Gillard’s attack didn. and he is now forever the minicng poodle.

    [On the back of all of that, Fitzgibbon was in the hot seat when the Coalition decided to shift parliamentary tactics and go wildebeest hunting. This is the political equivalent of being red in tooth and claw: a weak member of the herd or ministerial team is picked out, preyed upon until brought to its knees and then dispatched.]

    Yes if you stopped watching on Wednesday. On Thursday the wildebeest turned around around and showed everyone that the attackers were toothless.

  45. [I admitted that I bought their new album today (is playing as a write)]
    Today I bought:
    Peter Tosh – Boston 1976: Live & Dangerous
    Andrew Hill – Black Fire
    Ignacio Berroa – Codes

  46. [On Thursday the wildebeest turned around around and showed everyone that the attackers were toothless.]

    Well not really. It was better than Weds but still not very good. He should have buried them with the bogus payslip but he still looked hesitant and defensive. Snowdon was much better.

  47. [Libs go hunting…..lame wildebeest,]
    not to mention
    [Beating about bushes in the great Lib hunt]
    [Scene: A remnant of native bushland in the Shire. Enter right Mark Scott, managing director of the ABC, Tony Jones, compere of the program Q&A, and Senator Eric Abetz (Liberal, Tasmania). They are dressed like Steve Irwin (khaki shirts and shorts, hiking boots) and carry butterfly nets and binoculars.Abetz (who is being continually attacked by mosquitoes): Why (slaps himself) have you (slap) brought me here?

    Jones: We’re looking for Liberals, Eric. You asked us to, remember?

    Scott: To ensure balance on Tony’s show. An even-handed audience, Senator.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/beating-about-bushes-in-the-great-lib-hunt-20090226-8j22.html

  49. [Fitzgibbon was really not the same man i knew or the same parliamentary performer when he tried to defend himself in the House, him being ill probably would explain this…]

    I agree – on Wednesday he was really bad. (though others here thought otherwise, I acknowledge). But on Thursday he made Turnbull and Bishop look like they had over-played their hand when he showed them the pay slip.

    But to be honest I’ve never thought a great deal of Fitzgibbon.

    My tip is a reshuffle at the end of this year.

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