Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent‘s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,047 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. [Grog, I thought Underbelly last year was very overrated, just random violence, topless women and a few boring sex scenes.]

    Have to say I more enjoyed Cranford on the ABC last night than any show I’ve watched for a while. But then I am a literature junky 🙂

    I agree triton. I don’t think Turnbull was being cold hearted. There’s not much he can do at the moment except pledge support for the Govenrment’s actions etc.

    Mind you the Bondi Beach thing may not have been the best look PR wise…

  4. so according to Tuckey all those trees grew in the last year or so, what did he do when he was minister for forestry? regardless Grog, Turnbull should have been there offering emotional support, today is far too late, leaders should be leading.

  8. GG

    It’s all about jobs and the GFC package. The Ruddster is doing his best on them. The ETS has faded into the background. Voters are mainly interested in short-term fixes to their immediate problems.

  9. [What a cheesecake Rudd has become. They keep repeating that part where he tries to cry on the news.]

    And what a tool you have always been

  13. well today is playing politics Glen, yesterday instead of swanning it at Bondi would have been genuine concern, obviously one of his PR men has nudged him and said “the peasants are restless and feeling ignored by your august self”

  14. [Turnball just arrived in regional Victoria! – What! Without an invitation from Rudd! It’s shameless Glen!]

    Did i have something to do with that?

    #17 – [1. Where was he yesterday? No images of him whatsoever at the scene of the Vic bushfire, with the victims, words of comfort, shoulder to cry on etc etc. It will only reinforce his merchant banker image. Not good.]

  15. Diogs,

    You are probably right. Might add that talking to many apolitical people over the weekend the message was clear, Turnbull is an ahole for denying them their $950. Most people have already spent the money in their mind and they well know it’s Turnbull and the Libs that are holding it up.

    Turnbull has said he expected to take a hit in the polls. My only comment is, “Careful what you plan for, you just might get it!”

  18. Finn.
    Turnbull getting his nice clean designer shirt dirty in the heat, dirt, smoke and a grotty surviver crying on his shoulder—perish the thought.

  19. Ruddslide: debt, distortion, denial

    I’m not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but it’s seriously nasty. Actually nastier than anything GP could come up with. It’s mostly about the economic stimulus, but he has a go at the apology to Aboriginals last year as well. The moderation filter won’t let me type what I think of this fool.

  21. >>Liechtenstein has 2 conservative parties
    >>>they are in coalition against one lonely green member

    Not that much different to Oz really

  23. According to Wiki, the NSW Criminal Code defines murder as “reckless endangerment of human life” OR premediatation. Surely the scale of the present disaster merits the application of the former. The Adelaide Hills arsonist is to be sentenced this month, and will be an interesting point of comparison. What are the usual sentences for arson? Are the weather conditons extant at the time of the offence taken into consideration?

  24. I would have thought that the reason for Turnbull to be there (as for Rudd) is really about the information, experience and understanding that they can get from seeing the situation first hand. This would men not only greater understanding of the plight of victims, volunteers, workers and the public in the immediate aftermath, but also for future planning, funding, and management in the future. On that basis, all relevant ministers and shadow ministers should be on the scene at some stage over the next day or so. Turnbull should have been there yesterday.

    Except what is to be gained? He won’t be leader for much longer.

  25. #123
    I would think that the conditions at the time would determine the degree of recklessness, which could be important for that charge, but really all that should be necessary is to establish cause and effect. You lit a fire deliberately and this was the result.

  27. The weather conditions are taken into consideration in sentencing as the intent to cause damage is much more on a hot, windy day than in a thunderstorm.

  28. #121, Albert Ross

    [>>Liechtenstein has 2 conservative parties
    >>>they are in coalition against one lonely green member]

    AR, yes, the Liechtenstein election has been a fascinating one. But i have also been transfixed the “Cuttack Municipal Corporation” election, Cuttack is a major of municipal of the old Calcutta.

    The two major parties, BJP (The right wing Hindu Nationalist = The Libs/Nats?) and the Congress (rather leftie = ALP?) has been thumped by a relatively new, junior BJD (= The Greens?)

    [Cuttack, Feb. 8: The landslide victory of the BJD in the Cuttack Municipal Corporation elections has emboldened the party to claim the BJP bastion during seat-sharing ahead of the Assembly elections.

    “With the thumping victory, the demand is natural,” said Dharmananda Behera, the district president of BJD. BJD’s unexpected revival in the city, signalled by two-third majority in the civic body polls, has established party president and chief minister Naveen Patnaik’s political authority, besides making inroads into BJP’s vote base, said a senior party leader.

    For both BJP and Congress, this is the time to introspect what went wrong in the Cuttack polls. Known for a safe seat for the saffron party till yesterday, its three-time BJP MLA Samir Dey, also the state higher education minister, had to resign yesterday owning “moral responsibility” for the unusual defeat. BJP won just two seats out of 54 wards.]

    http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090209/jsp/nation/story_10504630.jsp

    Kinds like OZ, isn’t it.

  29. Any arsonist that gets caught by the police in Victoria at the moment is probably very lucky not to have been caught by almost anyone else in the area and used as a speed bump. Putting them in “protective custody” for a loooong time would enhance their life expectancy markedly.

    I reckon there are arguments in this kind of matter that regardless of why someone does this kind of thing, (and they would have to be nuts, maybe incompetent to be tried) the community needs to be protected from them once they are positively identified.

  30. JB

    Care to defend Rann on this one? Why should the taxpayer pay for ads promoting an unpopular decision by the Rann Government. It’s John Howard all over again.

    [Mr Parnell said the ads were not about informing the community.

    “They’ve been designed simply to push Labor Party policy on the Marjorie Jackson-Nelson Hospital and to attack the position of the Liberals,” he said.

    “It is outrageous that SA taxpayers are paying for this political spin.”]

    Ads promoting The Marj labelled blatant political propaganda
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25027562-5006301,00.html

  33. [However if we have struggled, the main things lots of people will think are “whatever Rudd did hasn’t worked” and “I seem to remember Turnbull being against Rudd’s plan at the time”. This second point will be reinforced by the Liberals at every opportunity.]
    What happens if when Rudd says, “But it would have been much worse had we done nothing or less.” People will credit Rudd with giving it his best shot. Also, this stimulus package won’t be the last. There will be other measures taken in the coming months.
    I wonder how negative people will be about the government when they see and hear about various infrastructure developments taking place and with job creation schemes happening etc.
    With most people’s disinterest in and poor knowledge of the political system
    Turnbull just maybe taking a short term hit for a future benefit that is pie in the sky.

  34. [Just when one has despaired of finding any intelligent life on Planet Liberal up pops Cory Bernardi a Liberal senator with sound arguments against Mad Maude Conroy’s internet firewall. But then SA is different.]
    He isn’t that smart, he doesn’t realise that the Queen is our Head of State.

    Senator Bob Brown just spoke to the condolence motion in the Senate, and DIDN’T mention climate change at all.

  35. [Just when one has despaired of finding any intelligent life on Planet Liberal up pops Cory Bernardi a Liberal senator with sound arguments against Mad Maude Conroy’s internet firewall. But then SA is different.]

    And which sound arguments would they be?

  37. Diogenes, a Premier/Prime Minister using taxpayer funds for political advertising? What a disgrace, it would never happen if the other side were in power!

    And pigs fly.

    Welcome to modern politics.

  38. [What a cheesecake Rudd has become. They keep repeating that part where he tries to cry on the news.]
    Of course had Howard done that it would have shown compassion on his part.
    The problem for conservatives is that they want people to believe Rudd is a mongrel. Showing emotion and helping out people doesn’t fit into that narrative so another tack has to be taken like this BS from Tab…, er Bree.

  39. Dio if it was an independant commentator i’d sit up and take notice but Parnell is just another pollie looking to make himself relevant and looking for a news spot. 🙂

  40. bob1234

    Both sides are equally bad on this and both are complete hypocrites.Mike Rann was endlessly squealing about it when he was in Opposition and now he’s all for it. When they start using taxpayers money to pay for political ads you know they are defending the indefensible, whether it’s SerfChoices or the Marj.

  43. Glen at #47
    “This isnt a national tragedy it is a Victorian one”

    Last time I looked Victoria was part of this nation.

    On other matters.

    Doesn’t this newspoll expose Shanahan as a blithering fool?

  44. Please Diogenes, don’t lower yourself to comparing harsh industrial relations laws with a new hospital, whatever the merits of it are.

  45. [Doesn’t this newspoll expose Shanahan as a blithering fool?]

    this latest outpouring is just complete twaddle,what really galls me is that people read his ravings as gospel.

  46. pmsl Dio, i bloody well knew i should have mounted my broomstick and come over there and beat you senseless with it last night!

  50. I note that some here were hoping for a bigger hit for the Libs in this poll. Hell, what is so small about a drop of 3% for the coalition and a gain of 5% for Labor? That is big.

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