The parliamentary year has ended with a striking result from Newspoll: Labor leads 59-41, up from 55-45 last fortnight, with Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 66 per cent (up three) to 19 per cent (down two). Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 70 per cent is one point shy of his previous best from April, while Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval have both gone five points in the wrong direction, to 47 per cent and 32 per cent (The Australian offers a graphic and a nifty preferred prime minister tracker showing figures back to early 2006). Nonetheless, the leadership ratings suggest voting intention would have been even worse for the Coalition if Brendan Nelson was still leader. Turnbull’s approval rating is still seven points higher than Nelson’s best result, and the 47 per cent gap on preferred prime minister is roughly equal to what Nelson managed when Rudd’s approval was in the mid-50s. Elsewhere:
• Essential Research also has Labor leading 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are questions on the performance of Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer, the relative popularity of Julia Gillard and Julie Bishop and “global terrorism and international unrest”.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper providing statistical details from every election since federation, along with a precis detailing the circumstances of each election.
• Sky News, Foxtel and Austar have announced that a public and political affairs television network called A-APAN, along the lines of the American C-SPAN, will be launched on January 20 next year. It will feature coverage of parliament and committee proceedings, industry meetings, and congressional and parliamentary coverage from the United States and the United Kingdom. It will be available on pay TV and digital free-to-air, the latter initially only in Sydney.
• Colin Barnett says the proposal for fixed terms in Western Australia will feature “a mechanism if there is some catastrophic behaviour of a government that you might be able to bring on a poll”. It will also provide for flexibility in the announcement of a date in either February or March, rather than fixing a precise date.
• Antony Green has weighed in on the recent criticism of New South Wales’ system of fixed four-year terms.
I find it hard to believe that 59/41 result. I’m not complaining, but I think it must be an outlier
Are we expecting any other polls out today? Morgan or whatever?
Yeah, BB, I noted it too, but I was prepared to forgive him that…
Boerwar @ 143 –
Heard part an interview on ABC local radio yesterday with an NZ journo about the murder of one of the Tampa refugees that the Kiwis, bless em, took in. He was an Afghani working hard driving a taxi to support his wife and kids. Very sad.
The telling part of the interview was the journo waxing lyrical for quite some time about how well the Tampa refugees have fitted into NZ society. Apparently they are very highly regarded.
Whether this poll is an outlier or note, even allowing for MOE, the worst the real result could be is around 56/44 TPP, which is still clearly up from the previous poll and the election. It confirms that the disunity and spoiling tactics have not worked. As I said, at least Turnbull has tried, but I can’t see how they can afford to retain Bishop on these figures. Gillard scores points off her every time.
That the Liberals have lost the will to lie (I mean spin) shows how demoralised they are. Even Gerard Henderson in the SMH this morning tried to dream up something on US politics, rather than face this reality.
fredn @ 148
Good link.
Looks very much like the leopard’s spots are rusted on.
Sharman Stone is disappointing in this. She has the smarts but has deliberately taken on Ruddock’s mantle. Sad.
The article also reinforces that the Liberal decent right and the Liberal crazy right still haven’t cottoned on to the fact that they have created a structural problem for the Liberal Party. In broad terms, it has gone Dry/right and vacated the centre. Even if they wanted to, they would have some great difficulty regaining the support of disaffected small L liberals and Wets. But they don’t seem to want to.
Boerwar I agree that the Libs have given up on the centre. With the Libs having picked a mob of newcomers like Alex Hawke, I don’t see much sign of renewal coming any time soon either. I’m not sure the incumbents are capable of renewal, with many of the moderates gone or going. As I said, Rud could be PM for along time, so I hope he moderates his hours and looks after himself.
MayoFeral @ 153
Interesting story.
As a nation, we have broad choices. We could welcome the truly desperate, hunted and bastardised people, help them fit in, provide good educate them and their children and house them. We could help them find jobs and support them with any difficulties they had with coping with life in a new country. Now, how would they respond? By thanking their lucky stars that there are some decent people around. They would be the most loyal, solid citizens you could find. This is exactly how millions of post-war migrants responded. What a boon for them, and what a boon for Australia – what drive, energy, inspiration, creativity and diversity they brought with them. Win/Win, big time. (I should point out that I am part of that great wave of post-war migration to Australia).
Or, we could vilify the truly desperate, we could separate them from the rest of society, we could bastardise them in ‘detention centres’ (concentration camps, gaols – what’s in a name?). We could make them hoon bait, we could make them feel unwelcome, despised. We could minimise support for them. Just to show them how much we truly despised them for wanting to join us, we could force them to learn who Bradman was. Howard really wasn’t a fifties man. He was a retro thirties Tory)
So, which is the appropriate long-term strategy for a nation which derives its energy and strength and flexibility from motivated people working together in diversity?
Why, short-term xenophobia -mongering for the sake of power.
The perpetrators deserve to spend the rest of their lives wondering why Australians are just not buying their filth any more.
Well at least Brenda and tip will have had a chuckle over their cornflakes this morning.
The fibs will now spend christmas plotting and cursing. Come around mid march if things don’t improve the knifes come out for turnbull and mesma.
And tip is still there waiting to be tapped on the shoulder. His prospects are looking better by the day, until you remember he too is damaged goods, yesterdays man and a shook.
Am looking forward to the 24 hour news cycle playing out – hearing on the radio even hour or so how badly the polls are going for the fibs. It is some consulation after 12 years of liar government.
Socrates @ 156
In the last thread I made some comments about the high turnover of staff in Rudd’s office. There is also some anxiety in this blog that Rudd may not last long. I share the concern, and believe strongly that it would be a pity if Rudd worked himself to death.
The staff turnover rate is high by normal management standards. The question is whether it is an artefact caused by an unknown but reasonable set of factors or whether it is because Rudd runs a toxic office.
I suspect, without knowing, that he works his staff into the ground – hence the high turnover. Some say, well, they know what they are getting into, they are paid well and they are eager wannabes who want to be in the PM’s office, so they should put up with the work rate. I disagree. It is never OK to create a situation with which competent staff can’t cope. I suspect that Rudd overworks himself and expects his staff to do the same thing. No proof. Just a hypothesis.
As a general comment, Prime Ministers, along with all bosses, are perfectly free to work themselves to death. They have the choice. This does not mean that they can choose to make the same decision for their staff.
I find it odd that the PPM figures have become the highlight of polls in the media recently. This morning the ABC radio news led with the Newspoll PPM result and mentioned the 2PP figures almost as an afterthought. If 59-41 doesn’t grab news editors’ attention then what will? In the end all that matters is the vote. The PPM is little more than a curiosity.
That’s for Kevin Rudd to be concerned about. I couldn’t care less about the ongoings of his personal office.
I dont think Rudd could work himself to death if Howard got up at 5am and went to bed at 12am everyday even working through meals for 11.5 years as a man in his 60s….
But you see Glen, it’s always quality over quantity that counts.
FS i was merely comparing the fact that both Howard and Rudd work themselves very hard…whether you think one is better or not has nothing to do with it.
Congratulations to the OO – golly that was hard to write!
I’m going to have to moderate my views on that August Organ. Mike Steketee has done a good demolition job in the OO on the Liberals’ xenophobic fear mongering at:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24747366-25072,00.html
Glen @ 162
Howard was certainly a very hard worker. No doubt about it. He also put a great deal of effort into keeping fit. He was also able to keep senior staff for long periods of time.
SNIP: See Article 8 of comment moderation guidelines.
Good comment Glen @ 164
Itep @ 161
Rudd should set the standard for other bosses. It does matter what he does. It is not his own business. Nothing that a PM does as part of his job, including how he runs his office, can be considered to be ‘His own business’.
Well there are 2 polls stating the same 2PP. So it does not look like an outlier poll.
Boerwar, your whole premise is based on speculation. A large number of the staff the would have left the office over the first year would’ve been transitional staff. Each ministerial office had a large number of transitional staff that were there for the first 6-8 months.
Personally I happen to know people who work for ministers who accept it is a tough job but enjoy the pay. Many of them are just working in the jobs as ways to pay off mortgages etc. If you can’t stand the heat of politics you should never enter it. It’s that simple.
My neighbour drove Rudd and Howard around when they were in Adelaide. He said Howard was much easier to get along with and was more relaxed and friendly. He said Rudd was extremely up-tight, frantically busy, unfriendly (but polite) and really tough on his staff.
Personally, I don’t care how they run their offices. It’s the outcomes that matter when you’re in as important a job as that.
But Dio you would think you would get better outcomes from being more relaxed and friendly than up-tight, frantically busy and unfriendly…
Maybe, maybe not. I’m sure we all know lots of successful people who aren’t so nice and friendly.
#172
I think many people thrive on being frantically busy. Nothing makes a day go faster than always being on the hop.
I note the Newspoll tables have a comparison for managing Australia’s economy, which shows Wayne Swan leading Julie Bishop 45 to 21 and previously at 18-20 April it showed Malcolm Turnbull had led Swan by 35 to 29. This would indicate that Turnbull had the better of Swan and now Bishop has lost that lead. However, this is not correct.
Both Galaxy and Newspoll asked the same question in May, and both had Swan leading Turnbull.
“Galaxy 19 May 2008
Some 36 per cent of voters believe Mr Swan would be the better economic manager over Liberal shadow treasurer Malcolm Turnbull, who rated 25 per cent.”
“Newspoll 20 May 2008
During the budget period, Mr Swan has overtaken Mr Turnbull on the question of who would make the better Treasurer, to lead by 40 per cent over Mr Turnbull’s 26 per cent.
Before the election, Peter Costello had an advantage over Mr Swan of more than two-to-one.
The Coalition has also lost its mantle as preferred economic manager to the Labor Government, with 52 per cent saying the Coalition could not deliver a better budget, to 29 per cent who said it could.”
Either it’s sloppy work or there’s an agenda at play. Either way it’s not correct.
I agree with Glen on the Rudd office staff thing. I don’t blame it all on Rudd, but the Qld public serice was not a pleasant place by 1995 and resentment among public servants was a factor in the government losing office. There is a domino effect of the long hours. Overworked staffers who don’t know the answer (is there any other kind? 🙂 ) then ring public servants up at the same ridiculous hours, or put unreasonable deadlines on them that mean they have to work the same sorts of times to comply. Only they aren’t paid huge salaries and don’t get any credit for it so it fast becomes quite unreasonable. So then there is a loss of expertise out of the agencies and the quality of information going back to the PM declines. Then they make poor decisions.
I agree Rudd is going (very) well, but I stand by my comment that, since he has a real opportunity to establish himself as a long term leader like Howard did, he or his senior staff should think about the way he manages people under him, and how they are treated, developed and retained. In this respect its better to be a Wellington than a Napoleon.
I think your clutching at straws with that one Glen, as ltep said it can cut both ways. From what I’ve seen, Rudds doing a great job. I’m sure Howard did a great job as well, although I didn’t like many of the things he was doing
Boerwoer,
My entirely subjective observations at barbies, the football, in business meetings and the like over many years is that it is those very people who we have taken in and their spawn are just as xenophobic and racist as any Anglo-Celt Ten Pounder or Currency.
What I’m saying is that it isn’t a one way street.
I think Rudd’s reputation for working hard is going to be very useful to him electorally. People are cynical about the motivations of most politicians, but they’ll be less cynical about Rudd. His work ethic has got a lot of press this year and must affect people’s impression of him.
Don’t bother watching the Sky Noos’ report on this poll. The message is it’s all to do with this massive handout, the opposition can’t do a thing about it now, it’s a good time for a PM to show his/her mettle, there’s a lag in the GFC’s effect on Australia and so could turn pear shaped for Labor next year but NO mention of the opposition’s short comings. Surprise, surprise.
The Australian today has anonymous Liberal frontbenchers very upset with Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership style and general way of doing business. They say he’s too close to Andrew Robb and his “small target” strategy is a cop out. Also, Xenophon is accusing the Liberals of “wasting his time” in the Senate by negotiating with him on amendments and then backing down to the government repeatedly.
Also from The Australian, the LNP in Queensland are apparently burdened with $1 million+ in debt brought over from the Liberal Party and have started a compulsory annual levy of $3000 on elected councillors and MP’s. These guys are unhappy and say that the levy is not in the LNP constitution.
[But Dio you would think you would get better outcomes from being more relaxed and friendly than up-tight, frantically busy and unfriendly…]
As ltep said, plenty of successful people are much more unpleasant than Rudd. Staffers are expendable. Colleagues aren’t and I think that is the more important thing which will determine Rudd’s longevity. I don’t know how his colleagues view him. Certainly any foibles he has will be forgiven while things are going well.
And Rudd doesn’t strike me as someone who would burn-out, but I could be wrong.
161 ltep – spot on and this poll shows that most people think just like you.
My only comment is that if you can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen. Transfer to another area. Get people in who can stand the heat, they’re out there.
Hell, unlike Sky Noos, even Dennis gets it.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24772007-17301,00.html
I actually thought Dennis was a bit harsh on Turnbull – see last chart:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/09/ouchpoll/
As much as Truffles might like to think the world revolves around him, sometimes it’s just not about him at all.
Ah, it doesn’t matter.
I don’t think anyone in the Liberal Party actually has the courage to launch a challenge. They’ll whine and moan to The Australian with the promise of anonymity but they’ll stick with Turnbull for some time yet.
It must be the “education revolution” and the government’s amazingly good handling of the economy.
[ As much as Truffles might like to think the world revolves around him, sometimes it’s just not about him at all. ]
About the only thing that is about him is the probability that he and mesma are unelectable.
Just cannot see the voters taking to either of them.
BTW I don’t think this goodwill / popularity wave will continue when in twelve months time potentially an extra several hundred thousand people will be out of work.
I agree that heaping the blame on Turnbull is silly and shortsighted, just as heaping the blame on Nelson was. Axeing Nelson and getting no lasting benefit in the polls *proves* that the bad polls were not Nelson’s fault. Mutatis mutandis, these bad polls are not Turnbull’s fault. These bad polls are RUDD’S fault. They reflect a POSITIVE judgement about Rudd, not a negative judgement about Turnbull. The fact is that the public likes Rudd and approves of the major actions of the Rudd government – the IR laws, the response to the GFC, action on climate change, money for schools, infrastructure, ending the Pacific solution, etc. They probably also think that Turnbull is not a bad bloke and would make an OK PM – but they prefer the one they’ve got, thanks very much. It follows from this that there isn’t much the Oppo can do except wait for the wheel to turn. If they think Turnbull is the best potential PM in their ranks – which he is – then they should stick with him. But of couse the media, with its constant money-driven hunger for conflict and “challenges”, won’t allow that. They will beat up another leadership crisis as soon as they can.
Adam if we hadnt of ditched Nelson the media wouldn’t have let up but by the same token now that the polls arent turning for Malcolm they’ll be just as bad…it’s lose lose as far as i can see for us in the short term.
190 – Adam, much of what you say is correct IMHO but don’t be too knd to Turnbull either. He is the leader of a party that looks and, by all accounts, is divided. A good leader doesn’t let that happen. A good leader unites a party.
knd = kind
It took one whole year for the OO to finally turn on the O:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24771996-601,00.html
One whole bloody year to state the bloody obvious!
Oh and glen at #39 serfchoices was about one thing only: cutting wages so that you could employ more workers you dolt! using that lovely third world logic, we could pay the kiddies $1 a day to work down the mines again, yay!
[ BTW I don’t think this goodwill / popularity wave will continue when in twelve months time potentially an extra several hundred thousand people will be out of work. ]
A lot of truth in that. Also a lot of people will have worked out even before they are reminded just how harsh life would have been under serf choices in a serious economic downturn and asking themselves WHY the fibs would want to do that to their fellow australians. It goes further – the fibs STILL have many in the parliament who STILL want serf choices brought back !
[ heaping the blame on Turnbull is silly and shortsighted, just as heaping the blame on Nelson was. ]
Agree with this too – BUT thats exactly what the fibs will do – Ain’t life grand 🙂
brenda is sitting there waiting for the right time to stick in knife. tip will spend his last breath trying to stop allbull from becoming PM. Then there are all the other very unhappy little vegemites anxious to blame someone, anyone and punish them.
At some stage they will also turn on little johnnie for trashing and burning the party.
The fibs do not do opposition well – and the coming years are not going to be an exception to that.
Mr Hat with all due respects you couldnt be more wrong, it was about ensuring unemployment stayed at record lows and making it easier for small business to employ people, if they had kept the no disadvantage test from the 1996 IR laws then there would have been nothing the Unions or the ALP could of said to criticise the laws…oh and Mr Hat the Fair Pay Commission raised minimum wages on more than one occasion so your argument that the laws ended up with people always losing money is misguided to say the least.
Gary, the reason the Coalition is divided is that, once they are out of government, the Nats can no longer rort the public till, so the only way they can keep the peasantry loyal is by taking cheap populist stands on hot-button issues and by differentiating themselves from the Libs, who can no longer bribe them into silence. The Libs would of course be much better off if the Nats – corrupt, reactionary and stupid as they are – could be made to disappear. Hence the Qld merger, a good idea if they can make it stick at the federal level.
Glen I really, really hope other fib supporters hold the same view as you on serf choices and try and run with it again. Please please, pretty please 🙂 What a hoot !
I am still laughing, nay praying that brough gets back and becomes fib leader.
Bring it on!