Newspoll: 59-41

The parliamentary year has ended with a striking result from Newspoll: Labor leads 59-41, up from 55-45 last fortnight, with Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 66 per cent (up three) to 19 per cent (down two). Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 70 per cent is one point shy of his previous best from April, while Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval have both gone five points in the wrong direction, to 47 per cent and 32 per cent (The Australian offers a graphic and a nifty preferred prime minister tracker showing figures back to early 2006). Nonetheless, the leadership ratings suggest voting intention would have been even worse for the Coalition if Brendan Nelson was still leader. Turnbull’s approval rating is still seven points higher than Nelson’s best result, and the 47 per cent gap on preferred prime minister is roughly equal to what Nelson managed when Rudd’s approval was in the mid-50s. Elsewhere:

• Essential Research also has Labor leading 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are questions on the performance of Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer, the relative popularity of Julia Gillard and Julie Bishop and “global terrorism and international unrest”.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper providing statistical details from every election since federation, along with a precis detailing the circumstances of each election.

• Sky News, Foxtel and Austar have announced that a public and political affairs television network called A-APAN, along the lines of the American C-SPAN, will be launched on January 20 next year. It will feature coverage of parliament and committee proceedings, industry meetings, and congressional and parliamentary coverage from the United States and the United Kingdom. It will be available on pay TV and digital free-to-air, the latter initially only in Sydney.

• Colin Barnett says the proposal for fixed terms in Western Australia will feature “a mechanism if there is some catastrophic behaviour of a government that you might be able to bring on a poll”. It will also provide for flexibility in the announcement of a date in either February or March, rather than fixing a precise date.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the recent criticism of New South Wales’ system of fixed four-year terms.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,313 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  2. harry
    Im more than happy to be educated about occams razor.(ive heard the term but have never delved into its meaning).

    but does it apply to snails 😉

  4. ShowsON

    “I am still on the thesis that FIRST TERM Labor governments tend to get a landslide win in their SECOND term.”

    This is a thread on FEDERAL politcs You made a foolish statement on Federal proved by hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton

    Now retrospectively you’re claiming you were refereing to State politcs …what on a Federal thread …not only irrelevantly …BUT history shows no correleation of State 2nd terms to Federal 2nd terms You reely ar an amateur politcal poster , and your 2nd excuse was worse than th first

  5. [Im more than happy to be educated about occams razor.(ive heard the term but have never delved into its meaning).]

    Basically, “keep it simple stupid”

  7. 59-41….It’s hardy a surprise though is it?… love him or hate him, Rudd’s gone about his business in a way that very, very few people in all honesty could have done, or would have done any different if they could. It’s a tough job but somebody’s gotta do it and the K-man has done it well

    Jesus, after a year of screaming and squirming, even the “wedges” got through

    Merry Christmas Kev… you earn’d it

    Don’t *mess* it up 😉

  10. Im more than happy to be educated about occams razor.(ive heard the term but have never delved into its meaning).

    Basically, “keep it simple stupid”

    No: Divide until simple and then concur.

  11. vera – 108

    Would you believe, I knew a guy who knew this guy who met a guy that painted something very similar to that on the Story Bridge maybe 22 years ago 😉

  12. [This is a thread on FEDERAL politcs You made a foolish statement on Federal proved by hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton]
    I’m not allowed to refer to state elections!? I didn’t know you had been made a moderator.
    […BUT history shows no correleation of State 2nd terms to Federal 2nd terms You reely ar an amateur politcal poster]
    Consider this isn’t the point I was making, I consider this more Ronning.
    [You reely ar an amateur politcal poster ]
    So why do you always respond to my posts?

  13. spam box I beleive,
    talking about Qld 22yrs ago, I have Rodney Rude joke book and some of his cracks about the Qld cops around that time are priceless

  14. Trying to educate you ShowsON that Hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton mean SECOND terms at Federal ar not a landslide as you implied , and we ar posting on a FEDERAL poll thread….and now that you claim you were referring to State history well remeber State history is also irelevant Now furthermore 2 years out from a poll showing hubris & talking lanslides is not wise either , but th warm feeling is OK

  15. [you claim you were referring to State history well remeber State history is also irelevant]
    Why is state history irrelevant if I am arguing that it is relevant?

    Do you think this stuff up yourself or do you use a random word generator?

  18. [Why is state history irrelevant if I am arguing that it is relevant?

    Do you think this stuff up yourself or do you use a random word generator?]

    Hahaha, it’s not worth it mate 😉

  19. 113 – ah memories (of deeds done by others of course) 😉 … It was a terrible(fantastic) time to be a youngish Queenslander

    Rodney R didn’t know half of it 😉

  21. Ron,

    My random word generator says “Ron is right”.

    Is it correct, incorrect or a total confusion to the cut and paster pseudo intellectual who criticises witout substance.

  24. About time Newspoll put out their quarterly Queensland state polling too so we can see if a small ball hiding in the shadows can continue improving in the polls or will the tactic be an abject failure. The last poll was on the 24/9 so we will soon see if silence is golden for the Borg and his merry band of followers. Somehow, I think he will be flushed out of hiding well before the next election.

  29. How soon before Turnball is knifed in the back?
    Nothing beats a dysfunctional Liberal Party Opposition LOL
    Last week’s disaster in parliament must have hurt them badly HA HA

  32. Well GG , you’re last man standing …so thanks for #121

    Now can you explain a pseudo intellectual professing love of footy , and barracking for both teams in a 2 team town

  34. evan14 @129 – as Socrates suggested earlier (I think he s/he’s gone beddy byes) Bishop will be the first to feel the steel, I reckon Turnbull won’t get spiked till we are closer to the next election, tip wont forget he’s cohones this time round (and then he’ll be slaughtered by the smiling assassian schoolboy, the ruddy Ruddster).

  38. [one piece of evidence that Howard or any Minister created workchoices to reduce the pay of people? You cannot!]

    McFarlane, Industry Minister, August 05:
    “We’ve got to ensure that industrial relations reform continues so we have the labour prices of New Zealand,”

    I’m pretty sure this didn’t mean they wanted to fight for better wages and conditions for NZers..

  40. No use supplying 1/2 th relevant quote and losing its context

    “The final figure will be set after an international meeting on climate change in Copenhagen late next year, when the intentions of the rest of the world will be better known.”

  42. Ok, I’ll say it. I have to. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.

    For the first time in his illustrious career as a sycophant Dennis Shanahan has written an entirely objective political article completely devoid of spin.

    The Liberal Party has finally broken his heart and spirit.

    Now back to eating the twenty seven hats I commited myself to.

  43. Tsk, tsk, Sharman Stone. First lesson of being in Opposition: losers do not get to re-write history.

    ‘Humane’? (see below, from Liberal Party Web Site).

    Whacking kids into detention; whacking asylum seekers into detention for years in the most bizarre arrangements and then being forced to release 90% of them because they were actually genuine refugees; Lying and vilifying the desperate and the powerless – for ‘throwing children overboard’; shared responsibility for drowning a boat load of women and children in SIEV X…

    No, Sharman Stone, not ‘humane’. Pure bastardry.

    The only lesson learned by the bastards who perpetrated all this is that electorally it worked some of the time. Turnbull and Stone have the potential to be reasonably decent people. They should stay well away from replicating this loathesome filth.

    Stone could make a good start by stopping the lies about ‘humane’.

    http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=2259

    “The Coalition dealt with the problem humanely and decisively. We brought people smuggling to a halt with the introduction of Temporary protection visas, the excising of Australia’s 4000 or more northern islands as migration zones, and the Pacific solution of offshore processing of people’s claims for asylum, “Dr Stone said.

  44. A nice way for Labor to end out the year and certainly the Opposition deserve it after the shambles they’ve been has been well and truly demonstrated.

  45. Boerwar

    If the Liberals ever want to see my vote again they will face up to the Howard years and apologize, pretending things were not as they were will not work for me.

    Glen

    The Liberals need to shutup, stop pretending they can win the next election and try to get some decent members into the next parliament. They real issue is, can they attract people with two neurons to rub together, if they can’t they have to wait until the current crop of capable labor members get old and senile, and hope that the NSW mad right ( yes labor has the same problem) manage to destroy Labors future.

  47. But get this…

    shanahan’s clearly lost his cool and his last sentence is priceless:

    [This poll is the sort of thing at the end of the year that only brews more trouble among dissatisfied MPs, who realise they’ve been in Opposition for 12 long months.]

    A month is a year for the Libs, in Dennis’s mind. Poor dears. Almost makes me feel sorry for them.

  49. We were discussing the other day that the next fed election will be in a year and half only. That’s not that long to keep the momentum going. Once the kidies get their pressies, the polls should drift even further apart

  50. With tongue in cheek I suggest we get the abc to rerun the howard years – we might get the polls for the fib party to go even lower

    🙂

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