Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 59.5-40.5, up from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Primary votes are Labor 50.5 per cent (up 1.5), Coalition 35.5 (down 0.5) and Greens 7.5 (down 1). Elsewhere:

• The redistribution of Tasmania’s electoral boundaries has been finalised. Several amendments have been made from the original proposal, which you can read about here. Antony Green calculates the new boundaries have increased Labor’s margin in Braddon from 1.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while reducing it in Denison from 15.6 per cent to 15.3 per cent, Franklin from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent and Lyons from 8.8 per cent to 8.4 per cent. Bass remains at 1.0 per cent.

• A bill to introduce fixed terms was introduced to the Northern Territory parliament on Wednesday. David Bartlett says similar legislation will be introduced in Tasmania next year, confirming the next election will be held on March 20, 2010 and setting up an ongoing clash with South Australia’s elections (to Antony Green‘s dismay). I’ll have much more to say on fixed four-year terms next week.

• Tomorrow is Victorian local government election day, which in most cases means today is the last day for submission of postal votes. Read and comment about it here. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has council and ward map files for viewing in Google Earth.

• In Queensland, poll-driven decisions on water policy are being seen as a harbinger of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. [Seems Milne’s the only one left defending Julie.]

    In the Sunday Crimes, even Peter Van Onsolen was giving Julie a good old bollocking.

    Shame it’s only in the dead tree version.

  2. “In the Sunday Crimes, even Peter Van Onsolen was giving Julie a good old bollocking.”

    Abit cavalier with that last word there

  3. [The West played this one with a straight bat, reporting the story fairly and straight forwardly, and making its own views clear in a separate, mild, opinion piece. Everything as it should be.

    What stood out starkly was the difference with which this bunch of putrid hacks would have treated the same story if it had arisen while Labor was in power.

    We would have been treated to a tirade of anti Labor vitriol, a never ending parade of photographs of old ladies sporting black eyes as a result of assault, a call to arms to demonstrate outside Parliament House, innumerable interviews with faux indignant Liberal politicians and assorted right wing shock jocks, strident, shrieking demands for the return of the lash, and column feet, not inches devoted to explaining how Labor is soft on crime.]

    Fulvio, I noticed that – and not a peep from the Sunday Crimes, nor the evening TV news ether.

    I’m wondering how 6PR will cover it on Monday – pity Ratings Season has endend and Beaumont & Sattler are in Holiday mode.

  4. Good to see the Rudd Government’s latest Indigenous Affairs initiatives, and bravo Minister Macklin. If former Prime Minister Howard hadn’t been so intent on winning the culture wars, these are some of the initiatives he could have done so easily. It just wasn’t Howard’s way, so another half a generation of time was wasted. I must admit that my perceptions of Macklin, fairly low to start with, just keep on improving.

    The initiatives include turning 2000 CDEP ‘jobs’ into 2000 real jobs, extra funding for health and a big boost for Indigenous housing:,25197,24731194-5013404,00.html

  5. The Poison Dwarf dishes out the the bitchiness this morning in an (even for him) unusually nasty piece that basically says, “Labor made some mistakes, so we can’t can’t criticise Bishop.”

    TPD segues smoothly from Gillard – as in “Gillard introduced the computers for schools package without reckoning on the installation expenses” – to Rudd – as in “Rudd got the funding wrong when in Opposition, so what kind of recrod is that for a government?” – forgetting they were in Opposition at the time.

    Finally he calls anyone who criticises Bishop “stupid” for doing so, because everything bad that’s ever happened has been Rudd’s fault.

    Or something…

    As Phillip Coorey suggested this morning they have finally made the switch from “denial” to “anger”.

  6. Hmm, looks like Christmas stockings will be full of fear and loathing over in Liberal Parliamentary Party Land. Are the wheels starting to fall off? Is the prospect of at least another five years in the wildnerness finally starting to sink in? Is fear itself the one thing they should really be frightened of?

    Looks like Hockey and/or Robb, and/or maybe some others, did the big whinge job to Mitchell, or to some other OO paid person, on how Julie Bishop was useless because she hadn’t hurt the Government on the economy. The OO duly obliged with a hatchet job. What were the knifemeisters thinking? Put some pressure on Julie? Put some pressure on Turnbull? Very, very poor judgement.

    But hang on, Glen Milne thinks it is all a cruel misunderstanding because Julia and Julie have ‘equal status’ and people are incorrectly saying nice things about Julia and incorrectly saying nasty things about Julie. So the Labour Party should stop saying nice things about Julia and the Liberal Party should stop saying nasty things about Julie? Yep, that should work.

    OK, so Julie knows that she is for the highjump. Under extreme pressure, she has jumped the first hurdle to becoming a Pollbludger. Her counter-attack is that it is all the OO’s fault! But how can EVERYTHING on BOTH SIDES be the OO’s fault? It is just not logical. Julie Bishop also thinks that Peter van Onselen has ‘an unhealthy obsession with her.’ Cor, I’m looking forward to some-one fleshing out the details.

    Joe Hocky is mute, for a change. I’m sure that there is something in Shakespeare about that approach, but I’ve forgotten what it is. Turnbull says that he is full of confidence in Julie Bishop. Oh, oh, those are ‘Beware the Ides of December’ grindstone words. Dutton’s ‘Who me?’ is that he thinks Swan’s the one who will be a goner by Christmas. Nice try by Dutton, but it comes a bit hot on the heels of Christian Kerr’s piece on Dutton and the Young Turks. Timing looks a bit skew-whiff for Dutton to be doing a Pontius Pilate. But then again, the Young Turks and the Fuds Faction are probably not talking to each other much, so the Young Turks piece in the OO coming out a few days before the Bishop Hatchet Job piece in the OO might really have just have been a nasty coincidence. Dutton really may be innocent on the second one. Anyway, I wish they would all get themselves organised. Trying to figure out how the Credible Alternative Government makes decisions is like trying to sort out the Da Vinci Code.

    Julie Bishop should be completely glad about one thing: The Nat Fuds have nodded off and will not be bothering anyone for a while.

    That sort of leaves Robb as a possible suspect knifemeister. Nice chap, so it might not have been him. But he may have had some feelings about the matter and got a bit flustered when questioned about it by Grattan.

    ‘Andrew Robb, when asked whether he would like the Shadow Treasurer’s job said, “I’ve got a job which I’ve got my hands full on and I will stick with that.” ‘

  7. Phillip Coorey has managed to find some unhappy Liberal righties that are tired of Big Mal’s poor performance and the direction the party is heading in:

    “One backbencher rang in last week to demand why the press was not making more of the polls, the observation being that the Coalition was faring no better in the public opinion polls that it was under Brendan Nelson.

    A few are disgruntled with Turnbull’s style. One MP said he tends to cut people off in the party room and lecture them, more like a chief executive than a political leader. Howard at least let people speak before either ignoring them or biting their head off, he said.

    The main criticism concerns the policy direction in which the Coalition is travelling. The right, which for so long has had its way inside the Liberal Party, is struggling to cope. The MP who complained about the lack of movement in the polls believes the rush to embrace Labor policy and moderate causes is costing the Liberal Party its core constituency. “We’re not going to take voters from Labor by pretending to be Labor,” he said.”

  8. Milne sounds like he’s in love. And Marilyn Monroe was highly intelligent, certainly much smarter than the ditzy and shallow Bishop.

    [Especially when it concerns an attractive and intelligent blonde who challenges men by her very presence and who is all too easily written off as a Marilyn Monroe airhead.]

    And Hillary is SOS, with Jim Jones as NSA (the 4 star general not the reincarnation of the Jim Jones People’s Temple, but I’m sure there will be a lot of Kool-Aid jokes). Gates is staying on.

    I propose that Obama send Hillary to Mumbai and Pakistan to sort out the mess forthwith. I hear the Tal Mahal is a nice place to stay.

  9. China is in trouble as India blooms in Mumbai. cricket anyone?

    [China’s economy is expected to grow by 10 percent in 2009 despite the impact of the financial crisis and global economic downturn, a researcher with the country’s Cabinet said……. Zhang said his remarks were based on the country’s huge domestic consumption, and investment potentials; sufficient fund, technology, labor and social security, and the government’s gradually mature macro-economic control measures.]

    Diog, Hillary will be in beijing. she knows which side of the bread is buttered.

  10. Queensland Galaxy poll out in Curious Snail.

    [The poll of 800 Queensland voters, taken late last week, revealed Labor and the recently formed Liberal National Party are evenly poised on primary support at 41 per cent apiece.

    Ms Bligh would edge out the Lawrence Springborg-led LNP if an election were called now with the results showing Labor retains a knife-edge two-party-preferred lead of 51 per cent to 49.

    However to mirror this result at an election Labor would have to rely heavily on Green preferences with the minor party’s support growing to 10 per cent as environmental issues come the fore.],23739,24730633-3102,00.html

  11. Some good news on the internet safety front it would appear

    [Telling internet-savvy teenagers that someone claiming to be a kid may be a 40 year-old “creep” appears to be the key to teaching online safety.

    The Smart Online Safe Offline website – a federally-funded project – has had more than two million hits since its launch in October.

    Links to the website, which targets online threats such as predation, grooming, cyber bullying and identity theft, pops up on social networking sites such as MySpace.

    The message about the internet is getting through, the National Association for Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect says.

    “It is unique, it empowers kids by talking to them in their world and their language,” CEO Maree Faulkner said.

    The campaign showcased the potential of the power of digital marketing to drive highly positive change.

    The campaign can be viewed at]

  12. Despite the partisan rancour, at least one financial institution is seeing its first home owner saving accounts being picked up big time, despite them not even advertising it yet…,28323,24732132-5017313,00.html

    [But Members Equity has launched one of these accounts and says that so far, they are selling fast.

    “As a new product under the government’s deposit guarantee, they are proving especially popular with mums and dads,” Mr Beck says.

    “Mums and dads like them because they give money to their kids for the specific purpose of saving to buy a house.

    “Instead of giving their kids money in an ordinary account which can go on anything, they are moving savings into these accounts,” he says.

    Member’s Equity has not advertised its First Home Saver Accounts but in the first two weeks it has opened more than 200. ]

  13. We were talking about Internet censorship/ filtering before and the possible banning of Pro-Anorexic sites was mentioned as something to consider. I don’t agree with it myself but the debate is very topical and needs to be addressed. Newsweek has a good article on the sites. Well worth reading, esp for HSO.

  14. “Mums and Dads” eh – twice, even!
    Is there anything more suspicious than the invocation of the Ms&Ds to embrace something?
    Not surprisingly it’s always in the context of the Ms&Ds to invest (for there own/family’s betterment, of course).
    Nothing but pure altruism here.

  15. Courier Mail on-line Poll. Typical, why do they bother?


    15% (124 votes)
    68% (546 votes)
    9% (74 votes)
    One Nation
    2% (17 votes)
    4% (37 votes)
    Sum votes:
    Total votes: 798 votes so far]

  16. I think Glenn Milne’s piece must have gone to Bishop’s head. Maybe being described as a “blonde” who tends to frighten men who cross her path has caused a little girlish excitement in the dressmaker’s dummy that is our (actually their) Julie.

    Now she’s accusing Peter van Onselen of being “obsessed” with her. As are no doub all men who a frightened by her and who write she’s a “blonde” and that that description will do to temper criticism.

    Pies said on Insiders yesterday that he thought attacking Julie was ungentlemanly, picking on a woman and all that, don’t y’know? Now today Glen is setting her up as an Amazon, “who challenges men by her very presence.” Sheesh, I wish they’d make their minds up. Is Julie a shrinking violet too “naice” to hit back against all those nasty blokes who make fun of her? Or is she the Queen Bitch who intimidates and frightens those same blokes (and the horses too, I’d warrant, with those eyes doing their thing)?

    The World wonders…

    She claims no-one has said anything to her about her performance. They she would say that, wouldn’t she?

  17. Yeah, I thought that’s how they operate. Now confirmed.

    [Michael of Darra, I’ll see your 50:1 re the election date, and raise it to 100:1 that if LNP {{ just keep their mouth shut, let the media do the slog,}} the Beattie/Bligh era will come to a close, as Qlders realize that the vote is to vote ’em out, not in.}

    And this is a clever play on words.

    [“Ellen Pea” should start inspiring us} LNP!,23836,24730633-3102,00.html

  18. More good news,27753,24732518-31037,00.html

    [Company profits up despite crisis

    A STRONGER than expected jump in company profits in the September quarter shows business and the economy are holding up well despite the slowdown in global growth, economists said.

    Company gross operating profits, in current prices, rose 5.2 per cent in the quarter, seasonally adjusted, to be up 31.3 per cent over the year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

    Economists had expected operating profits to rise by 3.5 per cent in the quarter.

    ANZ economist Riki Polygenis said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would view the outcome as a sign that the domestic economy could avoid a recession.

    “I guess it can give them confidence the Australian economy can avoid a recession,” she said.

    “It shows the business sector overall remains in better financial shape in the latest period of market turbulence than we previously expected.”

    The ABS data also showed estimated business inventories, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, rising 0.7 per cent in the September quarter after rising 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

    The September quarter result was 4.1 per cent higher than a year ago.

    Economists were expecting an 0.7 per cent rise in the September quarter.

    Ms Polygenis said the strong company profit figure means gross domestic product data for the September quarter due on Wednesday may be higher than expected.

    It also reduces the chance of a 100 basis point interest rate cut by the RBA following its monthly board meeting tomorrow.

    “At the margin, it gives the Reserve Bank greater confidence the Australian economy is withstanding the slowdown abroad,” Ms Polygenis said.

    “The current market pricing for 100 basis points (rate cut) is still looking a little bit overtly optimistic.”

    A majority of the 18 economists surveyed by AAP last week expect the RBA to cut interest rates by 75 basis points, which would take the cash rate to 4.5 per cent for the first time since June 2002. ]

  19. “Pies said on Insiders yesterday that he thought attacking Julie was ungentlemanly, picking on a woman and all that, don’t y’know?”

    Hmmmm… Does anyone remember what Pies said when Heffernan and the Neanderals were attacking Julia Gillard with politically objective terms like “barren”? Hypocrite or idiot? I can’t decide on Milne.

  20. Ironbar defends Julie.

    [A Federal Opposition backbencher has blamed a number of Liberal MPs in the eastern states for speculation that there is pressure on Julie Bishop to stand down as Shadow Treasurer.

    A weekend newspaper reported some Opposition M-Ps are not satisfied with how Ms Bishop is performing.

    West Australian MP Wilson Tuckey says Ms Bishop is doing a fantastic job and has his full support.

    Mr Tuckey says he believes the media reports have been generated by Opposition MPs who want her portfolio.

    “I assume as is usual this campaign has been instigated by a couple of eastern state shadow ministers who think they could do a better job than she,” he said.

    “My advice to them, whom so ever they are, is to get in and prove to us they’re doing a good job in the responsibility they’ve got already.”]

  21. A story on a dramatic drop in the inflation rate last quarter:

    This can’t be right. The coalition is still worried about government spending and the deficit, which they say will feed inflation. Yet this story says that inflation is no longer a threat, just as Stevens, Henry, Rudd and Swan have claimed. Surely those four idiots can’t be right and the great genius, Our Malcom is… wrong?? No!!!

  22. [Surely those four idiots can’t be right and the great genius, Our Malcom is… wrong?? No!!!]
    Those questions about inflation in parliament last week were just stupid. They proved that the Liberals have no coherent argument at this stage of the political cycle.

    It is obvious that inflation will decline if economic growth slows, ESPECIALLY considering the fact petrol prices alone dropped by 20% in November!

  23. Whoever is working out the Liberal’s Talking Points at the moment is even worse than Nelson’s Talking Point expert. They are incoherent and can’t hit a barnyard door. All they seem to come across as is DESPERATE.

    Would it really kill them to come up with a policy?

  24. [Would it really kill them to come up with a policy?]
    I don’t think they need much policy at this stage, but they need to START MAKING SENSE.

  25. Mumbai terorists plan was to kill 5,000 They had weapons and ammo to kill 5,000

    Bush was originaly right about 9/11 …th threat of terrorism to all A new type of war , with terorist ultimately with chemical or nuke capacity Mumbai is another 9/11 , as was London , Madrid & Bali currently more die in World from other means than terorism , but thats only until terorists get reel weapons

    Thats for th peaceniks here why we Australia is in Afghanistan , where so many training camps ar Terrible that Indian got reliable CIA intell and didn’t act , got more of there own intell and still did not act Appeasement in histary has never succeeded , just made th maniacs stronger to ultimately inflict more deaths

    Nothing wrong with concurently addressing some of th causes either but in th Palestinians its blatantly obvious Nothing wrong either in sensably ‘supporting’ XCountries struggles with internal terrorist groups & perhaps Howard deserves a tick with Indonesia ‘dealings’ th World’s biggest muslim countries (whereas th US a big cross in dealing with Pakistan)

    So suppose Mumbai becomes yesterdays news , India does not act or learn and hopes th next terorist attack is in someones else’s backyard , th neocons foolishly call it a ‘war’ , th peaceniks preach love to all , th terrorists daily seek more powerful weapons , th underlying misery problams creating fertile ground ar not solved , our troops rightly risk there lives in Afghaniston , and glen Milnm can only worry about womans rights…. but only if they ar from th ‘right’ politcal Party

  26. Haha

    Whine asked Julia a dumb question – situation normal. While Julia was wiping the floor with him she also took a swipe at mesmerelda – something like getting one of the fibs to explain the concept of ratios.

    mesmerelda got up no good and was caught on camera with a hate filled twisted face, arm outreached across the table, clawed hand throwing across towards Julia.

    poor old mesmerelda, the penny then dropped about how it was going to look on the news tonight.

    priceless !

  27. Ron

    I agree with you that the terrorists need to be confronted. I’m not suggesting appeasement. But the point is to disentangle it from national level politics. The Pakistan terror groups have recently tried to target the Pakistan PM in a hotel in Karachi! So yes by all means lets see action, but no more invasions. The operation of these groups occurs despite or because of an inept/corrupt Pakistani government and defence force, which the US propped up for far too long.

    Of course the Indian response was inept. I understand Patil, the Indian Home Minister has already resigned/been sacked. There is a good discussion of Indian views here:

  28. Dario

    I have to agree with Dio on the pipeline. Yes it will save water but it also reallocates it. That does make the Murray Darling system worse off. They could have plugged the leaks without the new pipe, whose only purpose is to divert water.

  29. Ronster

    This looks pretty bad. Bush is sending Condi to India/Pakistan/Kashmir after the attacks. Condi has spoken to Bami about what to say and how to speak in sentences, which is all to the good. Obama wants to send a special envoy of his own, his top man, and it’s probably going to be Clinton. It’s great that he is going to use his SOS “pre-emptively”. Of course, it’s BILL Clinton he’s going to send NOT HILLARY Clinton. All bets are off!! Bill Clinton is the REAL SOS, NOT Hillary.


    So they’re going to block the existing pipeline because it’s losing too much water are they…

  30. Mesmerelda has lost the plot.

    [The apparent feud between beleaguered shadow treasurer Julie Bishop and high-profile political commentator Peter van Onselen descended further this morning, after the Member for Curtin labelled the respected author her “political stalker”.

    The political pressure on Ms Bishop and her performance heightened over the weekend, as she was forced to strongly defend her performance and lashed out at some of her more vocal critics.

    One of those was Mr van Onselen, who wrote a scathing column criticising Ms Bishop’s talking up of attendance at Harvard, and recounting her apparent plagiarism of a passage in a chapter of book he compiled.

    Speaking to the ABC this morning, Ms Bishop refused to directly answer whether she believe her position was secure – saying only she was committed to the role.

    But Ms Bishop was much more forthright in her opinions of Mr van Onselen, repeating her claim he had an “obsession” with her.

    “Well in fact this Edith Cowan University academic seems to have developed a rather unhealthy obsession about me,” Ms Bishop said.

    “This is just one of a whole series of interviews and articles he has written – I’m starting to feel like I have a political stalker.”]

  31. Further on the Victorian pipeline, it has been commented on by Dr Mike Young at Uni Adelaide, who has analysed the entire water balance in the Murray Darling System. See

    “But some of the project’s funding will also be spent on a pipeline to Melbourne which will be used to pump the city 75 billion litres of water.”

    “Professor Mike Young from the University of Adelaide says subsidising some parts of the system and not others will create an imbalance.

    MIKE YOUNG, UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE: And when people in Victoria get infrastructure subsidised then people in South Australia will lose out and everybody has to understand that when one person gets something for free, it comes at a cost to everybody else and that might not be to the benefit actually of the nation as a whole.”

    and he makes this further point:
    “MIKE YOUNG: A lot of the savings are what are called leakage and seepage. Leakage and seepage water goes through into the ground water and then flows back into the river. If we do modernise, then the obvious thing we need to do is put all those leakage and seepage savings back into the river.
    One hundred per cent of them. If you don’t do that then you’re actually cheating on the future and cheating on the future of the river.”

    So the Victorian pipeline does divert water from the Murray Darling basin, and none of the “savings” are being returned to the river. Tim Flannery has also criticised the plan.

  32. I think Julie Bishop is really feeling the heat. After asking Wayne Swan a question, some comment came from the other side and rather than ignore it and sit down she lingered there, looking for who’d said it. And earlier there was that strange clawing gesture at Julia Gillard. She looks angry.

  33. Amigo Ronnie,

    [India does not act or learn]

    the trouble with the Indian political system is the politicians are more interested in money and power, in that order, before anything else, including their own grandmother.

    If Obi threw his grandma under the bus, the Indian politicians would drive the bus.

  34. [f Obi threw his grandma under the bus, the Indian politicians would drive the bus.]

    That analogy is a bit in poor taste considering the recent death of Obama’s Grandmother, but we do get the drift.

  35. I still think tip is waiting to be drafted into the leadership.

    If polls continue to trend the wrong way for allbull come mid march 2009 he will under emmense pressure.

    And all the time the knives are out all around. Brenda is waiting to dish out payback as will allbull when he is dumped.

    little johnnie has left a great legacy

  36. Van Onselen has been shamed by Bishop’s fraudulent contribution to the (orgasmically-stimulating) collection of essays he edited, Liberals and Power: The Road Ahead. Also by Nelson’s “ghosted” contribution (largely written by Tom Switzer), and by the fact that, while his mug appears on the front cover, Turnbull, the current driver of whatever clapped-out jalopy the Liberal party is using to propel its way down The Road Ahead, declined to contribute at all.

    The good professor has his reputation to protect.

  37. OT ………. ,

    Does anyone know the brand name and model number of a good mobile phone for someone who doesn’t have fluid movement and motion in the hands and fingers? I’m interested in getting a phone for a rellie for Xmas. PB is my largest potential network of information ;-). Ideally, I’m looking for something with a (relative to a normal phone) larger keypad and/or distinct individual keys so it won’t be hard to press/use them. Eyesight is not a problem, just free movement and motion in the hands/fingers. Cheers and thanks in advance 🙂 URL if possible would be good so I can check it out and also it needs to NOT be tied to a specific network if possible. We’re trying to keep the family all on one network LOL …….

  38. Bless you Frank, I’ve clicked on that link and navigated through a few more pages and am now on a website for a company called Jitterbug ….. this looks like it will fit the bill and will now have to share the information with my husband. Good on you 🙂 🙂

  39. From Sky News: Essential Research has Julia Gillard leading Malcolm Turnbull 39% to 34% on who would make the better PM. On the same question Kevin Rudd leads Gillard 63% to 14%.

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