Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 59.5-40.5, up from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Primary votes are Labor 50.5 per cent (up 1.5), Coalition 35.5 (down 0.5) and Greens 7.5 (down 1). Elsewhere:

• The redistribution of Tasmania’s electoral boundaries has been finalised. Several amendments have been made from the original proposal, which you can read about here. Antony Green calculates the new boundaries have increased Labor’s margin in Braddon from 1.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while reducing it in Denison from 15.6 per cent to 15.3 per cent, Franklin from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent and Lyons from 8.8 per cent to 8.4 per cent. Bass remains at 1.0 per cent.

• A bill to introduce fixed terms was introduced to the Northern Territory parliament on Wednesday. David Bartlett says similar legislation will be introduced in Tasmania next year, confirming the next election will be held on March 20, 2010 and setting up an ongoing clash with South Australia’s elections (to Antony Green‘s dismay). I’ll have much more to say on fixed four-year terms next week.

• Tomorrow is Victorian local government election day, which in most cases means today is the last day for submission of postal votes. Read and comment about it here. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has council and ward map files for viewing in Google Earth.

• In Queensland, poll-driven decisions on water policy are being seen as a harbinger of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. Why did that South Australian Family First MLC not just say it in the Legislative Council under parliamentary privilege and not say it in a press conference?

  2. [Why is Kerrie Anne Walsh even worth a post here?? What has she ever done or reported of significance??]

    Good point!

    A gossip columnist that gossips about the “goings on” of Canberra and Sydney should not be worth talking about.

  3. Tom

    I should add that this is on the background of a continuing attack on the DPP, judiciary and lawyers in SA which has been led by Rann and Atkinson for populist reasons. We are TOUGH ON CRIME in SA! We don’t like all these do-gooders who talk about rehabilitation. We have a “Rack ’em and stack ’em” policy to our jails.

    The relationship between the Government and legal fraternity is so poisonous that Atkinson decided to give all the legal work for setting up the Marj Hospital (a $2B project) to Victorian firms without asking SA firms to tender.

  4. Watch out at those Christmas sales. In the US, a Wal-Mart employee was trampled to death at a sale. But even that didn’t stop the shoppers. Hopefully it’s an “Only in America” story.

    [Some shoppers who had seen the stampede said they were shocked. One of them, Kimberly Cribbs of Queens, said the crowd had acted like “savages.” Shoppers behaved badly even as the store was being cleared, she recalled.

    “When they were saying they had to leave, that an employee got killed, people were yelling, ‘I’ve been on line since yesterday morning,’ ” Ms. Cribbs told The Associated Press. “They kept shopping.” ]

    Wal-Mart Employee Trampled to Death

  5. Perhaps this provides an answer to GP about why unions should be allowed to visit workplaces where they have no members.

    [Wal-Mart has successfully resisted unionization of its employees. New York State’s largest grocery union, Local 1500 of the United Food and Commercial Workers, called the death of Mr. Damour “avoidable” and demanded investigations.

    “Where were the safety barriers?” said Bruce Both, the union president. “Where was security? How did store management not see dangerous numbers of customers barreling down on the store in such an unsafe manner? This is not just tragic; it rises to a level of blatant irresponsibility by Wal-Mart.”]

  6. Oh Dear after months of the Federal Opposition trying to talk Australia into a recession, now they tell us it is the Government that is doing exactly that.

    [The federal government is talking Australia into recession, the opposition says.

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has warned the budget may have to go into deficit if the deteriorating global economy impacts further on Australian growth.

    The economy is predicted to grow between one and two per cent next year.

    Liberal MP Andrew Robb said the government is irresponsibly talking the economy into recession.]

  7. [Liberal MP Andrew Robb said the government is irresponsibly talking the economy into recession.]

    Ahhhhh there you go! The government is irresponsibly talking us into a recession whereas the Liberals are doing it responsibly.

  8. The only people who are hanging out for a recession is the Liberal Party. There is certainly cheap points in it for them and they can blame Rudd for talking us into recession to boot. All this of course when the Liberals keep reminding us we are heading for a recession.

    Well I have got news for the Liberal Party, we are going to slow but where most of the world will be in recession, Australia is going to avoid a recession. All under the leadership of the Rudd/ Gillard/ Swan government. So the liberals should just sit there in silence in QT and take it all like adults. And if they feel like they are going to explode, good, all the better.

  9. The opposition is truly a basket case. They dont know if they are coming or going.
    If we avoid both a deficit and a recession, they should start planning for at least a few more terms of opposition. And even if we dont avoid both, they should still plan nevertheless!

  10. It seems that in the US the war on consumer confidence has delivered its first casualty.

    But seriously, breaking down doors, wild stampeding, wailing and jostling: these people are more desperate than a herd of futures traders!

  11. WB, as more and more people access the web via the mobile phone, either via the wireless or the G3, you should talk to your Crikey people about a mobile version of PB.

    Technically it should not be too difficult as SMH, Age, Oz, BBC, Youtube etc etc all have a mobile friendly version of their website. Businesswise, you also dont want to miss out on an emerging audience.


  12. [There’s still 2 years before the next election for both major parties to change tactics and messages a number of times.]
    That maybe so ltep but do you see the Libs ever supporting a deficit? I don’t. As I said anyone who believes the Libs can win the next election advocating major cuts to balance the budget needs their head read.

  13. They won’t advocate major cuts to balance the budget. They’ll use the small target strategy of not advocating cuts before, cutting after.

    But can a small target strategy work after only 3 years of opposition?

    Or if the economic situation is that dire, people may very well support some cuts?

  14. [They won’t advocate major cuts to balance the budget. They’ll use the small target strategy of not advocating cuts before, cutting after.]

    No, but they don’t have too. It’ll be the governments argument that the only way they can keep a precious surplus for surplus sake is by major cuts. And they’re going to have to respond.

    [Or if the economic situation is that dire, people may very well support some cuts?]

    Thanks to Howard, we’re too addicted to stuff we don’t need.

  15. Major/minor cuts, it will mean the same thing to the government. money taken away from om going programs, programs for stimulating the economy and promoting employment in tough times. Do you worry about a budget deficit or your job? Do you worry about a budget deficit or hospitals and education? A scare campaign for the taking.

  16. Just thinking, Insiders is probably a positive for Labor. It’s a place for the Libs and their cheer squads to gather and bitch and mislead and stamp their feet and abuse Ruddy every Sunday morning. Sort of therapy for them after another week of bad polling.
    The good thing for Labor is that they ain’t got much of an audience (perhaps a dozen or so pollbludgers) and while they (Libs) congregate at their own private club (ABC) they aren’t out in the real world causing mischief.

  17. The $Billion 6 who runs the Liberal National Party franchise in Queensland.

    [QUEENSLAND iron-ore magnate Clive Palmer has laid claim to the title of Australia’s richest man as the global financial crisis continues to reshape fortunes.

    He has lost about $500 million on paper since July, but told The Sunday Mail yesterday he still had assets of about $6 billion.

    That puts his wealth ahead of some of the biggest names in Australian business, whose fortunes have been eroded by the collapse on the stockmarket.

    Mr Palmer headed The Sunday Mail’s Queensland Top 100 Rich List revealed in August, and several others in the exclusive club have also managed to weather the storm, including internet entrepreneur Graeme Wood, gas developer Bob Bryan, coal magnate Ken Talbot and retail king John Van Lieshout].,23739,24726123-3102,00.html

  18. If we don’t go into recession, the Libs will ignore that and still find some way to label the Government as ‘irresponsible economic managers’. Unemployment will most certainly rise whether we hit recession or not, so that will be the likely focal point.

  19. Yes, as interest rates plunge, I just hear Turnbull now, “Unemployment will always be lower under a coalition government”. Good luck with that one

  20. [Dario, the ABS releases the September quarter figures on Wednesday]

    You can put 10 economists in a room and get 10 different answers. I don’t believe Colebatch or Martin any more than I believe the IMF.

  21. [Yes, as interest rates plunge, I just hear Turnbull now, “Unemployment will always be lower under a coalition government”. Good luck with that one]
    It would be pretty easy to counter that by saying that pay and conditions will be lower under a Coalition government.

  22. Clearly what will happen is as follows:

    1. If we go into recession it will be Rudd’s fault.

    2. If we grow slightly, keep our heads above water, say 1%, Rainmaker will say that under a Coalition government we would have done better, say 1.3%.

    Same old, same old: under the Libs you will always be better off. Completely unquantifiable, un-provable and totally without basis, but there you go…

    Write this one down. It will happen.

  23. This whole narrative is completely bogus and won’t run at all for the Libs. Everyone knows that this crisis had its origins in the failed policies of the Liberal Party’s ideological soul-mate, George W Bush. Everyone knows that Rudd is taking the correct and necessary steps, on the advice of the Treasury and the RBA, and with the support of virtually all economists. The same policies are being followed everywhere except Canada. Turnbull actually supported both of Rudd’s major measures (spending the surplus and the bank guarantee), no matter how much he is now trying to wriggle out of that support. The more Turnbull bloviates the bigger the hole he is digging himself into.

  24. KerryAnne Walsh is right but her sudden awakening appears to be partisan. KerryAnne has been around and her outrage is confected.
    But she is right.
    Question Time is supposed to be a significant element in accountable, democratic government. That is exactly what it is not. Regardless of who is in power, it is closer to the theatre of sound and fury, signifying nothing of substance, but everything about public positioning. It is about perceptions of who is a ‘winner’; who is cock o’the walk. Costello is a prime example of why question time matters – his reputation is almost solely based on his roostering at question time. He is not stupid. By avoiding shadow ministerial duties he has avoided the humiliations of being roostered. His parliamentary performance reputation remains more or less intact. The concomitant problem is that it reinforces perceptions of cowardice.

    Parliamentarians and party hacks out of power whinge incessantly about question time; quite rightly so. They are trying to have it put about that the Government of the day is ‘cheating’ in a contest. Parliamentarians and party hacks in power crow but not because they believe they are contributing to accountability in government. They crow because all they can see is that they are yesterday’s feather dusters, today’s roosters, and tomorrow’s feather dusters.

  25. [Costello is a prime example of why question time matters]

    To journalists perhaps. Everyone else knows he is just bluster, reflected in his polling numbers (or lack of them). A tiny fraction of voters watch QT, let alone the news!!!

  26. What is totally astonishing is that Walsh has repeatedly said that Costello is a great parliamentary performer. This when in government and with scripted lines to humiliate the opposition. Now with Cossie on the opposition backbenches, she wants QT to be changed – obviously to suit the oppositions needs.

    Do you think that if someone sat down with Walsh and calmly explained to her that she comes across as a blatant one-sided hypocrite, she would understand?

  27. [Do you think that if someone sat down with Walsh and calmly explained to her that she comes across as a blatant one-sided hypocrite, she would understand?]

    Ooh! I know this one!!!


  28. The way Walsh put herself up as an “expert” on the Indian terrorist matter was illustrative. A couple of days ago I’m sure she couldn’t have cared less for what happened in Mumbai, but today on Insiders she was offering (what I’m sure she reckons is) “sage” commentary. Now, we all have our ideas on terrorism in India, which we are entitled to possess, as Walsh is. It’s just that she gets to write hers up as if she’s been a student of Indian Affairs for thirty years, while the rest of us confine ourselve to pub talk.

    It was the same thing with the Indigenous Intervention: fat-arsed, city-bound hacks, more used to pigging out on red wine and Italian food in Leichhardt or Brunswick, who most likely have never mat a tribal kouri in their lives, suddenly became experts in indigenous affairs, and felt themselve able to offer profound endorsement of the Howard government’s policy on same. Total crap of course, complete balderdash, but there you go: when news is opinion everyone has to have one, and to appear to have held that opinion all their adult lives.

  29. I have to say I have been a bit dissappointed in a few journalists coverage of the Mumbai attack, though to be fair it was a confusing situation. The SMH had a photo of a terrorist on Saturday captioned as a “Deccan Mujahadeen”. There is no confirmation such a group even exists. Many commentators I read suggest it is just a front for Lashkar-e-Toiba. At best they should have said “claimed to be” or “unconfirmed”.

  30. The West Australian had a front page story on Saturday about the State Goverment adopting a policy of on the spot infringement notices for minor social offences, but including stealing and common assault among them. Nothing outrageous in the idea, the concept and reasoning behind it is clearly understandable,although treating any assault so apparently lightly would cause one at first blush to think.

    The West played this one with a straight bat, reporting the story fairly and straight forwardly, and making its own views clear in a separate, mild, opinion piece. Everything as it should be.

    What stood out starkly was the difference with which this bunch of putrid hacks would have treated the same story if it had arisen while Labor was in power.

    We would have been treated to a tirade of anti Labor vitriol, a never ending parade of photographs of old ladies sporting black eyes as a result of assault, a call to arms to demonstrate outside Parliament House, innumerable interviews with faux indignant Liberal politicians and assorted right wing shock jocks, strident, shrieking demands for the return of the lash, and column feet, not inches devoted to explaining how Labor is soft on crime.

    Stinking self serving hypocrites.

  31. Those conservatives arguing that NSW should not receive funding for hospitals etc from the Feds because they are a basket case are actually advocating penalising the average person in the NSW street for the sins of their government. Do they realise that that is the logical extention of their argument?

  32. Various topic blogs & coment on some Boewar appreciate you quoting extract from my #101 re P S reltions with MPs & agreeing with those fundamentals Second quote of your blog (unattributed) of course belongs to McArdle

    Nothing wrong with what he said either , democracy feeds on info flows providing it doesn’t cross governance reqiuirements when dealing with 3rd Partys Thats why I mentioned AWB scandal info Your mistake is to atribute to McArdle something he didn’t say , and nor will he say which is why his quote actualy was fine IF House Privelegges Committee finds he got briefing type notes he has big problams and so he should , but so far no evidense and doubt there is any

    This is just argy bargy State politcs , with somke info indicating a new airns hospital will be cheaper long term and quicker to build Govt’s probalm is th site Facts & benefits of actual issue (a hospital) as often occurs is clouded by both Partys politcs and MSN reporting McArdle’s comments (but not fully defined) and th reaction to them (making worst adverse assumptions) ar part of th politcal ‘game’…. a ‘game’ th public get very anoyed at with reason

  33. HoS Queston Time ?

    How many ‘left’ bloggers here religously watched HoR Q & A Time during John howards period ? How many “Bolt-ites right bloggers religously watched HoR Q & A Time during PM PK’s reign of word terror ?

    Rusted ons just luv Q & A ….its like a one horse race , your horse always wins Perhaps there’s some erotica in spanking oppositions who reely do not hav any recourse Exxceptions of course ar ‘gaffes’ or an incompatent Minister but those exseptions do not justify th present farce of “democratic” Q & A in fact most aussies see clips of it , and cringe (rightly)

    Recall PJ called it a vaudeville time for song and dance routine , and I’d add , where only th intelligent 1/2 of th audience see th humour

    IF one wants not erotica but accountability from Q & A it needs reform Perhaps throw out dorothy Dixers Perhaps throw out all Govt Questions (and hav ministes make “announsements” outside of Q & A) Perhaps limit answers to say a minute , allow one/two supplementary Questons (each limited to say a minute) Change Standing Orders to limit/prevent references to oppositions policys allegedy said for comparison purposes but reely a debating gold mine to smash a defenceless opposition WITHOUT often answering/justifying Govt position on an issue (leave th comparative snips to actual ‘debates’) where there snuck in anyway Perhaps require a Q & A over a week to need to include say 1/2 of Cabinet , rather than all Q’s to PM and th select few Perhaps revolutionaries do some sort of quid quo with Media so Q & A is published daily , most people worjk when Q & A is on and replays at nite conflict with sport or soapies (or sleep “etc”) , or perhaps on ABS at civalised hour Perhaps revolutionaries make speeker a non Party 3rd person appointment for a term , rather than an elected MP

    But don’t expect a bookie to lay bets on a one horse race , because when Libs do return to power you’ll be back to th sport or soapies (or sleep “etc”) ….some of which should never hav been forgone anyway

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