Morgan: 58.5-41.5

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 58.5-41.5 from 56.5-43.5 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 2.5 per cent on the primary vote to 49 per cent, the Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 8.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

655 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. The ABC is going to have a hard time tonight, deciding what to lead with on their TV news.

    Will it be “Rudd snubbed by Bush”?

    Or will it be “Rudd accorded honour in press conference venue”?

    Decisions, decisions… only 2 hours to go, boys and girls. You have to make up your mind.

  2. Imagine if Sarkozy was an aussie, the bludgers who pose as jurnos would be beside themselves lol.

    “French President Nicolas Sarkozy has taken digs at US President George W Bush in recent days, toning down his pro-American stance as Bush prepares to leave office.
    But ahead of tomorrow’s Group of 20 nations summit in Washington on the world financial crisis, Sarkozy repeatedly needled Bush over the Republican president’s handling of Russia’s war with Georgia in August and US economic policy.

    Sarkozy, who helped broker a ceasefire agreement that ended hostilities in Georgia, underscored his different approach from Bush on Thursday when he received a French foreign policy journal’s award for “political courage”.

    “When on August 8 someone had to leave for Moscow or Tbilisi, who defended human rights?” Sarkozy asked rhetorically, at a ceremony in the Elysee palace as he accepted the prize from Politique Internationale journal.

    “Was it the president of the United States who said ‘This is unacceptable’? Or was it France which kept up dialogue?,” between Russian and Georgian leaders, said Sarkozy, who currently holds the rotating EU presidency.

    “I remember the American president’s call the day before our departure for Moscow: ‘Don’t go there, they (the Russians) want to go to Tbilisi, they’re 40 kilometres away. Don’t go, (just) condemn it.’

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=666272

  6. Adam – Denial of the Bleeding Obvious( don’t get mad at me, you asked, I answered) 😉

    GP… normally dont get into these pedantic point thingys…. but you were indeed – a touch naughty there

  7. Spam Box, thanks.
    I don’t think there have been any recent sightings of Saddam at shopping malls, but I may be wrong.

    All these silly lefty lawyers etc should spend their time pursuing real criminals like Mugabe, the genocidal regime in Sudan and the Burmese junta. Howard is a just a washed-up politician.

  8. William
    any response to your call for RWB debate on this site.

    perhaps the silence means they are cowed by rudds achievements

    that or they are truly empty vessels

  9. [I don’t think there have been any recent sightings of Saddam at shopping malls, but I may be wrong.]

    Well nobody has come right out and denied it, so it must be true!

  11. [I don’t think there have been any recent sightings of Saddam at shopping malls,]

    I was at Abdul’s Exotic Lebanese Restaurant, Surry Hills, the other day and there was a guy sitting there who looked an awful lot like Gaddafi. Does that count?

    By the way their falafels are THE BEST. nd as for the dish they coyly call “Coriander Potato”, I have died and gone to heaven.

    (Have I committed an act of terrorism by saying this?)

  18. Your link is wrong, Judith, but it gave me another chance to read the OO’s plonking dismissal of other journalists (i.e. the one who got “drinks at Kirribilli” confused with “a diner party at Kirribilli” confused).

    Now that their own journos are calling i a “dinner party” is this the New Reality?

  21. [Will it be “Rudd snubbed by Bush”?]

    I hope they lead with that story, this issue is so close to many Australians.

    I hope that the libs continue pursuing it, they should pursue it right up to the next election, make it their main focus, it will get them many votes , many many many votes.

  24. 420. How do you call for them??

    Ta for the link Judith. The most pertinent part:

    [But while the body language looked bad, the long-term impact remains debatable.

    Mr Bush will hand over the keys to the White House in January, giving Mr Rudd a clean slate with new leader Barack Obama.

    Late tonight, Mr Rudd’s office noted he was the only G20 leader to be given the privilege of holding his press conference in the same venue as the summit.]

    Anyone recall Costello not being welcomed in US financial arenas despite his gaffe in 96? Exactly the caravan move on. Even more so when a new Pres comes to town. If Obama (or Hilary as Sec of state) comes to Australia before the next election will anyone seriously think this phone call leak has any political (or even diplomatic)longevity.

    But oh well, I guess Insiders will give it another run…

  28. I’m thinking the Liberals could have an ulterior motive for labouring (sic) this non-issue.

    What is the first thing Labor was going to say in response to the Liberals beating up “phonegate”?

    Labor would retaliate by reminding people of Johnny’s remarks of early 2007 connecting Obama & the Democratic Party with al-Qaeda.

    This response was entirely, utterly predictable.

    To the best of my knowledge the Liberals have never apologised for, or sought to distance themselves from, the insinuation cast by their esteemed hero.

    In the face of what must (have been) considerable pressure to do so, they have deliberately chosen not to.

    So do we assume they “own” the sentiment expressed by Howard? That they tacitly endorse what the rodent had to say?

    If so, then upon the election of Obama would be the perfect time to reignite expression of that sentiment.

    “The terrorist sympathiser has been elected. Let’s smear him with Howard’s comments.”

    To make that happen, all they had to do was beat up the nothing story of “phonegate”.

  29. I think that credits them with more strategic thinking than they are capable of. Shaun Carney is right – their strategy is simply to attack everything and oppose everything, regardless of logic and regardless of consequences.

  30. This is the agenda for the G20 summit. There is going to be another one in a few months when Obama becomes POTUS so I wouldn’t expect much more than motherhood statements from this one.

    The Ruddster did well by getting in on the ground floor with Obama.

    [World leaders prepared Friday to adopt an early warning system for financial calamities, a commitment to tougher accounting rules and other modest steps to try to prevent future crises like the one now threatening the livelihoods of billions of people around the globe.

    The leaders were on track to approve measures to make the world financial system more accountable to investors and more transparent to regulators, diplomatic sources said. To do so, the leaders were expected to endorse more effective accounting rules governing how companies value their assets, a weakness seen as partly responsible for the current financial crisis.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/14/world-leaders-move-toward_n_144021.html

  31. I wish I hadn’t brought up Abdul’s (cnr. Elizabath and Cleveland Sts., Surry Hills), because now I’ve got this craving for Lebbo food.

    I live in the “leafy North-West”, but on rare forays into Inner East climes, I always stop at Abdul’s and load up with three or four vegetarian mixed plates to take home put inthe freezer, and consume (the idea is, over three or four weeks, but I scoff them all in the first). It reminds me of my art student days. It still does… younger and happier days… Abdul’s is cheap! Filling! Totally scrumptious! I’m getting that “thing” already.

    Salty. Satisfying. Filling. Flavours upon flavours. Garlic. Humous. Tabouli that you could eat instead of a last cigarette at the firing squad. And “Coriander Potatoe”… the taste jowls are cramping at the thought. The saliva glands are… well… salivating, nay, gushing.

    Oh, it’s too horrible. As long as there’s an Abdul’s I’ll want to go on living.

  32. Remember the Tsunami Early Warning System (which of course was implemented after the Christmas Tsunami)? It looks like the G20 wants to bring in one for further GFCs. The potential to abuse your position politically or for financial gain if you were on that board would be enormous.

    [A new early warning system would look for signs of burgeoning problems like those in the U.S. housing market and related overuse of mortgage-backed securities. On Friday, the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the world’s financial firefighter, and the Financial Stability Forum, a group that includes central banks and major financial regulators, said they would cooperate on “early warning exercises” to detect vulnerabilities.

    Also, a new “college of supervisors” would gather global regulators tasked with scrutinizing the world’s largest financial institutions together to compare notes as they seek to spot excessive risk-taking.]

  33. Shanahan is of course fairly useless and produces at no better than high school quality stuff when he has to flag waving for the Liberal party and to undermining the Government in any way possible which, is fairly much most of the time now days. Pretty sad for what is supposed to be a major newspaper that this is what they allow to fill their pages.

    Then we know the OO is no longer anything to do with quality or credibility which it threw out the window when they decided to be Howard’s toy boys for a decade. The OO today is the culmination of what you get from 10 years debasing yourself to support Howard.

    Now it is simply a reflex action of the paper and its newly irrelevant journos – to support neocons and be anti-Labor, they salivate at the bang of the Liberal Party gong which Turnbull got his hands on. They are the Palin of newspapers, the culmination of long sickening morals.

    The problem Turnbull and the OO and the ABC have is working out which is the sock puppet. There are so many hands and fingers in wrong places they wont know if they are the touch-er or touch-ee. But it is all fairly gross and incestuous.

    The worst and most distasteful thing for the Murdoch media in all this is that when they supported Howard he at least had an ideology, they could at least say they were flag waving for some cause. Turnbull has no ideology and no reason to seek government except ‘must….get….power’.

    I wonder how much of their behaviour is from heavenly instruction and how much is from a systemic malaise within its journalists.

  36. Yep, as predicted they focussed on the Bush intro and didn’t mention Gordon Brown’s praise of him or that he would be getting the only press conference. Pretty standard ABC fare.

  37. Anyone see that stat on ABC news saying that the Northern Territory consumes the equivalent of 1600 cans of beer on average per person over 15 each year? Bloody amazing!

  38. […I don’t think there have been any recent sightings of Saddam at shopping malls,]

    That’s only 4 and a half cans a day.

    It’s hot up there, y’know.

  39. I try that again…

    [… Ithe equivalent of 1600 cans of beer on average per person over 15 each year]

    That’s only 4 and a half cans a day.

    It’s hot up there, y’know.

  41. Dario @ 436

    I was hoping we would all be wrong about the ABC………this is so frustrating, there has to be something that can be done about this outrageous reporting. I have complained about other stuff but it just gets a standard “fair and ……etc”.

  43. [I was hoping we would all be wrong about the ABC]

    I can understand them going with the ‘frosty’ greeting bit, but there was nothing about anything positive for Rudd, just matter of fact reporting apart from that. They seem to have no issues with putting spin on negative things for the Government at the moment, but when it comes to positives it is essentially non-existant.

  45. Four drinks in a session is now defined as binge drinking. At 4.5 drinks per head per day, Territorians are constantly on a binge. Imagine the number of brain cells peed down the drain every day. (Maybe that explains their recent near-miss with electing a conservative government).

  46. [Tanner on Insiders tommorrow. Hopefully we’ll get some sanity from the ABC for a change.]

    Unlikely.

    Watch Barry attempt to get Tanner to admit the budget’s going into deficit.

  48. Juliem, lol theres been reported sightings of UFO’S up that way and when the government shut it up during the hot summer months a rumour did the rounds that a spaceship had crashed we had our very own Roswell.

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