Morgan: 58.5-41.5

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 58.5-41.5 from 56.5-43.5 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 2.5 per cent on the primary vote to 49 per cent, the Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 8.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

655 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  2. Stephen Machett reviewing the Howard years says after you watch the first episode he doubts you’ll go on to watch the rest, he says the worst you’ll get is Costello being a bit snide, i’m grateful he’s saved me a boring evening.

  3. [ Stephen Machett reviewing the Howard years says after you watch the first episode he doubts you’ll go on to watch the rest, he says the worst you’ll get is Costello being a bit snide, i’m grateful he’s saved me a boring evening. ]

    Just what [ ” legacy”] did rodent leave ? what major contribution to the nations future ?
    What major projects ?

    The whole gig was about HIM saying in power, being a deputy sheriff and blocking smerk. When allbull gets on the nose of voters, where then for the party of “pig-iron” bob?

  5. When Turnbull has crashed and burned, the burnt and scarred survivors will have to do a few things to get back in power:
    1. get some coherent policies together.
    2. attack the government on the basis of policy differentiation rather than rank opportunism.
    3. get some semblance of integrity together (as opposed to simple power lust)
    4. start working as a bit of a team
    5. rehabilitate Howard.
    The 1 and 5 are why references to Howard, and discussions of his policies, his behaviour and his legacy, will retain serious live political currency. It is also why there are two reflexes at work amongst RWBers (1) don’t discuss him while the memories of him are hot, and (2) deny that any criticism of him is valid. Thus (a) they will never willingly raise Howard in discussion and (b) they will trot out all his old worn-out lies and spins. For example, if you are a RWBer, don’t talk about Howard’s role in the Iraq War. If his role is raised, then jump in and assert that he hasn’t been convicted in court. The latter is the very clever Windschuttle test to demonstrate that hardly any Aborigines got massacred. While lawyers naturally support the court test, there are far more rational tests than court convictions about whether Howard is a war criminal. It suits RWBers to have the discussion about the court test rather than have a more general assessment of the substantive issues about Howard’s personal contribution to death and mutilation of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and several million becoming displaced. Note the disjunct between those words and ‘convicted in court’. Clever people, the RWBers. A quick review of GP postings will demonstrate the patterns here.
    Any attempt to rehabilitate the lying and murderous Howard regime should be responded to with energy.

  6. Personally, I can’t think of anything worse than viewing “The Howard Years”. I’d rather gouge out my genitals with a blunt spoon, bite off an appendage. I think it would give me PTSD. ewwwww.
    Many thanks to the bludgers who fleshed out the arguments about the internet filter. I think I’ve got something of a handle on it now, though it seems to me human governance mechanisms always lag the tech. advances.
    I’m reminded of a time when microsurgery was being pioneered and standard procedure was to refer all potential recipients for an assessment as to whether or not the proposed procedure was warranted. One case lives in my memory; woman who had all of her 4 children removed for abuse and neglect, wanting a reversal of tubal ligation on account of her new relationship with a bloke recently released from prison for child sexual offences. I kid you not. I said nah.

  10. Re 448

    [
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
    Juliem, lol theres been reported sightings of UFO’S up that way and when the government shut it up during the hot summer months a rumour did the rounds that a spaceship had crashed we had our very own Roswell.
    ]

    Thanks for that …… only in Adelaide, eh? …… isn’t it possible that they are coming back to pick up one of their own to take him home, Mr. Nick Z? 😀

  11. JB@459

    Had a look at the answers on how to describe Howard in one word. Costello was very funny, without the least intention of being so.
    The odd thing was that no-one appeared to think that either ‘murderous’ or ‘lying’ described Howard in one word. Maybe they should have asked some relatives of dead Iraqis or some of the children who were supposed to have been thrown overboard – now there’s an angle for a journo looking for a fresh slant on the Howard regime.

  13. “I’d rather gouge out my genitals with a blunt spoon” LOL I have never heard that before. HSO work around the good parts or you might be there for a while =)

    Howard was interviewed on Agenda which will be screened at 2am and 9am in the morning. I wont bother watching. Apparently Howard criticises Rudd for referring to the GFC as the worst since the Great Depression. Well, hmm, it is Coco.

    Still so out of touch!

  15. [Dario – how terrible that you know the line is from Prince of Thieves. How terrible that I also know it..]

    Guilty as charged 🙂

    actually, it’s “why a spoon, cousin”, but no big deal

  16. Geez it sounds awful. Was going to watch it, but that clip was enough to send me running for the sick bag.

    And Fran Kelly is the one to put it together… gee, one is shocked.

  17. I almost couldn’t believe the superfluous appearance from bit-player Judith Troeth.

    I’d be interested in watching a The Rees Months documentary in a little bit, I’d imagine it’d certainly be more interesting than anything on the old fogey.

  19. Thanks, Judith. Had a look. Inclined to agree with you but will have a look anyway Monday night. From the promo’s on our ABC it looked much like a circle w*nk.

  20. Juliem, yup only in Adelaide, well errr Adelaide prides itself on being a bit different, see Mr.X, we are slightly eccentric here– in case you havnt noticed lol.

  24. The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    “amigo ronnie, hillary 4 potus, sorry wrong job. Hillary 4 sos. Still in amigo land”

    Yes its hers apparently if she wants it Awaiting our advices Also Billy may be a distraction running around th World with his entourage

  29. Well at least he didn’t salute him this time… imagine the furor that would cause!

    On the second (youtube video)… how incredibly awkward! Luckily they had an easy audience, you could almost hear the crickets chirping at the start…

  35. Actually, right from the inception of the supposed “reporting” of the phone call between Rudd and Bush., it’s now looking like a long running meme is to be advanced. i.e, the one advanced by Shaun Carney vs. those disparate memes now emerging in the MSM?

    Tomorrow I will post the latest glamour shot of the Shadow Treasurer.

  36. Well how many other world leaders have joked about Bush behind his back? It should NEVER have been reported in the paper in the first place. Frankly the MSM couldn’t give a stuff about our international relations with anybody, they just want to discredit the Labor Party.

    Before you neocons start getting a little too pleased, remember Rudd never called Bush a leader supported by the terrorists. I wonder what kind of greeting the Rodent would have received from Obama after his remarks, not in private mind you, but for the whole world to see?

    Still, seriously, the journos should stick their head down the toilet and give themseles a royal flush over this farce. I blame them.

  39. “It should NEVER have been reported in the paper in the first place.”

    Perhaps, but the story should never have been provided to the media by Rudd’s office either.

  40. The worst, utterly unforgivable aspect to our media is how they ape the OO – who in a totally brainless way THEY accept without question IS the national newspaper of RECORD no matter what the OO write or don’t write.

    Reporting the report in the OO then validates the original crap.

    When is OO reporting put under scrutiny by other msn ?

    The bunch of DOPES fool themselves that their role it to get to the bottom of what is going on, but then they sub-let their brains to whatever line the OO run with.

    WTF ??

  41. Generic Person

    Did read your detailed reply and you make some good points regarding Internet blocks I try to get Conroy out of th Debate & you remind me (correctly) he has passage of Comunications & th Proposal What I can say he is a liability to my argument as he’s very average at best both intelectualy and in characterising opponents , & yes probably will lead th issue into a dead end Would hav preferred Wong or Moxom in charge (all factions hav some duds)

    Agree Mr X and Fielding hav there own Agenda’s for additional moraly sensitive issues exclusions , none of which I’d support Both Senators ar an embarrassment to th Senate anyway

    My refernce to faith in senior Labor & Liberal politicians is solely in regard to them sensibly agreeing & setting th child porn criteria and standards/sites for exclusion , and certainly not in politicians technical knowhow We hav an independent Censorship Board which has generally Labor/liberal bipartisan support and accountability , and see a replica , and again based on th major Partys criteria , tink bipartisanship should not be a problem One can hav th minor partys in on it if unavoidable but would take no notice of there additional Agenda exclusions

    You mentioned th poor takeup rate of Howard’s desirable free filtering software to parents through NetAlert , only 130,000 people , true I’d put that down internet ignorance of Parents and apathy , but apathy not lack of desire Lots of desirable programs suffer that fate , and sometimes Governments hav to do what people reely should get off there behinds and do Hence mandatory overcomes both apathy & internet ignorance

    Generic Person you mentioned AFT bulking up Well I’m happy to hav additional funds into AFT AS WELL , so am not opposed to th AFT cyba unit However I do not share posters faith in much success there Whether its drug or most big time crime , our enforcement officers try but th Crims survive , easily So I do support AFT cyba expension but feel its not an alternative for viable success , only slight mitigation

    I was pleased you did not mention th over top Libertarian view of putting full onus on solely parents to prevent kids internet porn access and/or making a filter system optionol instead of mandatory , as some posters hav suggested I tink over th top Libertarians misunderstand that whilst th community may or may not query a cost impost or speed effects , th comminity I feel will not query a mandatory implementation despite some Libertarian’s ideas (because th public won’t wear an optional child porn access availability if given th choice of mandatory)

    What we may be critically down to Generic Person is th internet speed effects and functionality Whilst filter does not encompass P2P that’s not necessarily an impediment to severeley denting child porn Being able to getting around ISP-level filters & speed efects with filters in play ar th technical objections being put to a block & where we differ as to what can be achieved , and also perhaps more advansed search engines algorithms would assist as well Unfortunately many people including some posters hav joined th Debate and significantly on both sides , pushing additional Agendas , which ar reely completely outside of addressing a core social childrens abuse issue

  42. How do you know that the story was provided to the media by Rudds office in the first place ltep?

    After watching the replay of Lateline (Frank post 484) I reckon Abbott let it slip that Bush actually said it.

  43. ltep,

    You’ve done a good job of putting this “phonegate” issue in perspective over the past couple of weeks.

    Certainly I think it beggars belief to say that Rudd (or his office) weren’t behind the original story. If this were not the case, Rudd would surely have said so.

    On the other hand, as you’ve pointed out a few times, the whole thing has dragged on far too long and the Opposition have been crazy to keep at it quite as long as they have.

  45. These journalists are not ignorant of what is going on. They have a reasonable idea if something is BS, been adulterated or is a beat up. If they ape the OO they already know that it could be crap or it could be accurate, toss a coin. They don’t care. If it is wrong they can blame the source and, if they are wrong they couldn’t care anyway since they are all on the same anti-Labor track.

    This phone leak non-leak thing is typical of a trivial item being exaggerated and made into something when it was a boring bit of nothing. Mainly because the Murdoch media and the Liberal party are finding it hard to make ground against Labor. So it very quickly becomes a coordinated bit of work between the ABC, Murdoch journos and the Liberal party (once again).

    Just to get it into perspective if this was John Howard and the LNP you can guarantee that it would have become nothing or would have been beaten up into a positive for him. The decision on if a news item is important or not is not dependent on the merits of the event itself but entirely dependent up if it can be used as a Labor negative or not and can be morphed into an ongoing campaign.

    The ABC has become corrupt, the Murdoch media always a campaigner for the Liberal party in anyway that it can and the Liberal party willing to go down any path to win. ie Tampa, Baby Over board corruption and lies, the possible manslaughter of the SIEVX refugees.

    So anybody who thinks this current thing is important or kidding themselves are engaging in mock concern when they know that whole scheme of things it is below trivial.

  46. TP,

    Agree with you that phonegate is utterly trivial.

    Can’t agree that the ABC is “corrupt” or biased. Sure, they report Liberal Party talking points. They also report Labor Party talking points.

    Maybe the Murdoch media is biased (I wouldn’t know as I don’t partake). As has been pointed out a number of times, there isn’t a law that says you have to consume their offerings.

  48. Oh come on Dyno. Rudd turns around and says Bush didn’t know what he was talking about regarding the G20. Next thing you know its in the papers.

    Rudd or his office do not wright newspaper columns. As if Rudd wanted it publicly known that he thinks Bush is an idiot. GET REAL!

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