The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 58.5-41.5 from 56.5-43.5 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 2.5 per cent on the primary vote to 49 per cent, the Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 8.5 per cent.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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[ltep
A truly repellant personality, the Labor parties dreams would come true if Abbott were made leader]
All banter aside I give you much credit for your comment – particularly the first part.
onto new thread
Why would you commission Roy Morgan to do a poll when you can get a decent market research company like AC Nielsen or Newspoll?
No-one commissions his political polls, he just publishes them himself to draw attention to his market research business.
I’m intrigued as to why Morgan polls always have such a Labor bias, including his phone polls, compared with the other pollsters. Doesn’t Morgan himself lean to the right, in which case how does it happen?
Re Adams comment on Abbott:
He has real problems with women, and I doubt at his age he’ll ever get over them.
Roxon, Macklin and especially Gillard just rub their hands in glee at the thought of facing him.
Happy with the boys club; not at all happy in a modern democracy, or even a modern corporation these days.
I’d pay money to see him and Gail Kelly in the same room!
The problem with the libs leadership is that their little swinging voter group is the WA contingent – I don’t see the rusted-ons changing anytime soon.
No Bishop = no leadership.
In the same way that Palin revealed McCain’s ineptness, so too with Bishop and Turnbull.
I’m also going to give Mr Morgan a big congratulations on publishing a much more reasonable set of commentary points that bear some relationship to the actual polling:
[
“The leadership shown by the Rudd Government in rushing through a desperately needed stimulus package and also the RBA’s decisive interest rate cuts — down 2% since early September — have given electors increased confidence that Australia’s Government can lead the country through the “World Financial Crisis.”
“This weekend Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan are off to Washington to meet with world leaders in trying to find a solution to the problems afflicting world financial markets.
“It is a great opportunity for Australia to participate at the ‘top table.’ Rudd and Swan must make the case that increased international trade including free trade agreements is the way to overcome the present financial difficulties.
“It is important that Australia is a part of all negotiations going forward and Rudd and Swan must make the case to world leaders that our abundance of natural resources gives us a crucial role in determining a new world financial framework.”
]
Given the drivel that is normally served up this is a massive improvement, regardless of it’s headline grabbing potential or otherwise.
Well morgan has ruined the weekend for quite a few fibs.
Those who haven’t read this in the OO today its worth a chuckle
[When pissants of the world unite
Approbation was warm. Now we had an action signpost. But Piers remained inconsolable. “It’s the gloating that gets me down,” he moaned. “A leftie in the White House has made it New Year’s Eve for everybody I hate. And look at Sarkozy and Merkel and that lot. Rubbing their hands.”]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24646889-31501,00.html
[They come up with Nathan Rees as Premier and there’s no evidence he actually existed before.]
I must admit I thought that, too.
DA JA VU!!!!
I’ve lost count but this must be about the 100th poll with the ALP a long way in front.
I think for good reason for while the economy is looking shaky, at present the debate is not about what the Government has got worng or what the opposition would do but some small issue about who’s predictions are gloomier and did the PM have a chat with President Bush, interestingly we always knew when PM Howard had spoken to President Bush so what is the different.
I’m fast becoming bored with the narrow debate we are having, this country faces several very serious issues yet we have a Government doing just okay and an opposition that seems clueless.
wasn’t Morgan that had the most accurate poll on the eve of the nov 2007 election ?
Must of been a fluke.
Anyway the trend must be worrying for the LNP
So Malcolm Turnbull’s strategy of attacking Ken Henry and the G20 gaff seem to have failed. Time he discovered the main game of ideas rather than innuendo. I’m sick of him adding to the fear about the economy which is self-fulfilling.
the cane toad was at the Advertiser when dear old Bob Whitington was the head crime reporter, Bob became like a surrogate dad to me during the worse times of my life, before he died Bob would spend hours, cuppa in hand, telling me stories about the goings on at the Advertiser, what he said about the cane toad isnt printable, Bob was a rare thing–a journo with uncompromising principles, i dont think the cane toad has improved with age.
The reason we always knew Howard had spoken to Bush was he called a press conference before the leak could get to the papers and carried on like a puppy that just got it’s tummy rubbed.
Triton “Am I unreasonable in believing that a leak did occur?”
Yes and NO Triton , depends on th levels Has th alleged leak been internationaly pased around , yes , Does any World Leader care th moron Bush MAY hav had th mickey taken out of him , No , Would Bush hav been briefed that rudd was calling soecificaly about th G20 , yes , does that mean Bush would hav had to hav known what th G20 is in advanse of Rudds call , yes , Does that mean th Bush does not know about G20 occured in th phone call , impossible , would a dilomat savy PM make such a slip anyway , impossible , Was there any reason for ANY Labor or liberal PM to leak such an insult on a US POTUS , impossible , Has Rudd unamgigously denied it , yes , Will most voters believe rudd does not lie , yes , so th story is buried by many gravediggers angles
Could rudd or a lkientenant hav made a smart ar.se comment after th call saying Bush did not understand th diplomatic/econamic value of G20 in assisting th current markets crisis PRIVATELY BUT AFTER th call to his trusted captins , thats possible but its not relevant (except that mitchell was there & may may hav picked up those vibes in after dinner drinks vibes and then embellished , possible , but that just would mean after dinner drinks vibes will in future talk about cricket and no politcs and no future invitation to Chris Mitchel …but it still means th actual story is false n omatter which trail one goes down
Of course Overseas Leeders will follow one of these trails and also conclude th story is false ….but wish with a chuckle it reely was true
Rudd like all governemtns makes mistakes , including i tink th Managed Investment sector , but PhoneyGate is not one and has no where to go to so will dies , and will not even be in voterdss minds come 2010 electons and nor should it
Judith it amazes that toad is employable at all.
I’m sure he has made others employable with his columns of bile over the years. Sadly, he “reaches” (if that is the word) many working people who actually belief his rubbish. For fib-tv to give him a voice is truely beyond the pale.
If even half of the controversies detailed about him in Wikipedia are true he is no way in any position to pontificate to all and sundry the way he has over the years.
Still murdoch and others at limited news must know what low life piers is and that is exactly why they employ him. Says so much about yank murdoch.
duh thats …unemployable over the years
More drivel from Morgan, obviously. Interesting that Shanahan has admitted Bishop is a liability for the Libs. I agree.
Another great result (though not surprising), confirming the trend away from the Liberals. Labor is re-writing the book on government popularity, while all the Liberals, with no apparent idea of fronting as an attractive alternative, can only bitterly try to undermine the new and phenomenally popular government.
Turnbull’s days must surely be numbered if this trend continues. Another couple of results from different organisations confirming the trend and the numbers will be being counted. At this rate it’s only a matter of time before “leadership speculation” again dogs the Liberals.
Only this time it will be different because with Turnbull they fired the last remaining bullet in the chamber.
[Bob would spend hours, cuppa in hand, telling me stories]
Ahem, Bob has never held me in his hand!
Michael Pascoe gives the Nation a slap around the head and tells it to htfu.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/cop-a-dose-of-harden-up-20081114-66nl.html
GP, you’re back! 🙂
No 18
Cuppa, instead of positing an endless load of blather, perhaps you would elucidate your attack strategy if you were the leader of the opposition. As all we seem to get is that the opposition should merely be government lapdogs, never criticising, never asking questions and certainly never suggesting any incompetence.
“Labor is re-writing the book on government popularity, while all the Liberals, with no apparent idea of fronting as an attractive alternative, can only bitterly try to undermine the new and phenomenally popular government.”
Meaning it would be better to try and undermine an old and unpopular government?
GP – Its a call to sack her. Bolt agree on his hun blog.
The wolves are howling…..for allbull too.
I still say tip will be back…or more accurately attempt to be drafted
[perhaps you would elucidate your attack strategy if you were the leader of the opposition]
What, and help the Liberals? Now I know you’re not being serious.
No 24
[Now I know you’re not being serious.]
Now I know you have no argument, just facetious blather.
GP, you’re an admitted Liberal, here grasping about for ideas to help you out of the plight. Sorry, I will do nothing to aid the likes of you (Liberal). Call that facetious if it makes you feel better, but that’s the reality.
[Cuppa, instead of positing an endless load of blather, perhaps you would elucidate your attack strategy if you were the leader of the opposition.]
Why would ANYONE need to help anyone who is supposed to be as brilliant as allbull.
He has read the back of the corn flakes box he knows it all – just ask him.
tip to be drafted if allbull does not make traction by mid march 2009. After that the election is just too close. Much much policy work to be done
[Now I know you have no argument, just facetious blather.]
fibs turning nasty again when they don’t get their own way
[Meaning it would be better to try and undermine an old and unpopular government?]
The Opposition’s job isn’t to undermine the Government. It’s to keep them accountable and present an alternative.
By attacking the public service, going around in circles during Question Time, taking their lead from the media, having a complete lack of alternative policies, supporting the Government in passing legislation and then criticising it the next day they’re undermining themselves and they’re spitting in the face of the people who elected them.
I would start by apologising for WorkChoices and promising never to do anything remotely like it ever again. I would then admit that anthropogenic climate change is real and support the immediate introduction of a CPRS. I would agree that the GFC required immediate measures such as the bank guarantee and the stimulus package, and I would stop talking down confidence and trying to provoke a run on the funds. I would agree that the maintenance of the surplus requires revenue measures like the medicare levy, the luxury car tax and the alcopops tax, and stop obstructing them in the Senate. Then, after about three terms, I might have some expectation of being taken seriously.
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
Well, Adam has answered Yes to my question.
Well I’m sure the Opposition would love the Government to do everything they wanted them to do as well. Although I suspect even if that happened they’d find something to complain about.
GP,
They could try being reasonable.
The constant over-egging and nit-picking just makes them look stupid. Turnbull could quite reasonably say that we (the Libs) believe the government has made some errors, but this is a time of crisis so we won’t make big deal over it, oh and by the way just remember it was the Howard government that bequeathed the economy in such good shape that if we all pull together we’ll pull through far better than almost any other country. He would look statesmanlike in a crisis and he could use the time productively to lead a root and branch review of the Coalitions policies.
Instead you can see their desperation to clutch at any straw to try and score a point. It’s working as well for them now as Burkegate and Scoresgate worked for them last year. Now it’s even more counter-productive because people are worried about the economy and can see these charlatans talking it down.
They aren’t going to win the election 2 years out, but they’re making a damn good fist of losing it.
[Do you think the opposition should be a government lapdog?]
By pretending that the only options are “government laptop” and “careless, self-indulgent and dangerous BS” you’re showing who is actually intellectually incapacitated.
[Maybe I should be clearer for those here who are intellectually incapacitated. Do you think the opposition should be a government lapdog? Yes or no?]
There is a difference between being a lapdog and providing an alternative
[By attacking the public service, going around in circles during Question Time, taking their lead from the media, having a complete lack of alternative policies, supporting the Government in passing legislation and then criticising it the next day they’re undermining themselves and they’re spitting in the face of the people who elected them.]
Spot on OZ! And all the polling agrees with you.
Government laptop? Is that one that can only connect to government sponsored, kid-friendly websites?
[ Maybe I should be clearer for those here who are intellectually incapacitated. Do you think the opposition should be a government lapdog? Yes or no? ]
The public have answered this in every poll over 20 months.
I pray the fibs continue doing exactly what they are doing now and retain mesmerelda in her currently position.
The voters have the fibs number and continue to reject it
No 38
Oh dear, what a mess Conroy has himself in….
iiNet chief, Michael Malone, has labelled him the worst Communications minister in 15 years.
Well, golly, a lot of people label the Howard government as the worst ever.
[laptop]
Hah, I’m looking at potential laptops in another window.
*lapdog.
GP, I’m not sure whether Conroy is a whole lot worse than Richard “world’s biggest luddite’ Alston, who also had plans to censor the internet, including a plan to make email forwarding illegal.
Alston and Coonan hold the blue ribbon for incompetent do nothing teco ministers.
No 41
Really, obviously they must only entail the delicate petals reading this blog because the Australian people voted for Howard four times in a row.
No 44
Oh please dave. Under Conroy, we face the very real threat of total internet censorship a la China. Alston and Coonan did have a similar policy on the books but in a fit of sanity, abandoned it.
GP at 40
And there is a perfect example of the utter failure of Turnbull. You need to pick you battles, not just go in all guns blazing every day in the hope someone in the government gets hit by the shrapnel when you blow yourself up.
Instead of taking on the government over the GFC (when everyone wants it to be a politics free zone), attacking the RBA and Treasury (who have more public trust than any politician) or tossing on about who said what to whom after George called (which no one cares about) he is letting a gold plated opportunity pass.
If for the last few weeks he’d stood shoulder to shoulder with Rudd on the economy but belted Conroy every chance he got he’d be a mile in front of where he is today.
” Interesting that Shanahan has admitted Bishop is a liability for the Libs. I agree.”
bronwyn or julie?
“iiNet chief, Michael Malone, has labelled him the worst Communications minister in 15 years”
Who? Oh, a person with a conflict of interest.
There’s a reason you’ve been quiet lately GP 🙂
1998 he lost the popular vote
2001 Tampa, 9/11, Children Overboard
2004 “record low interest rates”