Presidential election minus two days

Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Washington 56.5 39.4 3322 11
Maine 56.6 40.3 2185 4
Minnesota 56.1 41.7 3270 10
Michigan 56.4 42.1 3232 17
New Mexico 57.1 43.0 3305 5
New Hampshire 55.0 41.7 3900 4
Iowa 54.2 41.4 3052 7
Wisconsin 53.4 42.1 3003 10
Colorado 54.9 44.5 3248 9
Pennsylvania 53.1 43.1 5479 21
Nevada 51.7 45.2 3168 5
Virginia 52.0 45.6 3382 13
Ohio 50.6 46.1 6490 20
Florida 50.0 46.6 5381 27
North Dakota 47.7 45.7 1706 3
Montana 48.7 47.4 3934 3
Missouri 49.9 48.6 3217 11
North Carolina 50.1 49.1 5582 15
Indiana 48.6 48.7 3834 11
Georgia 47.9 49.9 3248 15
West Virginia 44.0 54.1 3328 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 52.0 44.2 – 370 168

Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.

This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.

Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.

State Close
AEDT 		Electoral
Votes 		Cumulative
EV
Vermont 1100 3
Kentucky 1100 8
South Carolina 1100 8
Indiana 1100 11
Virginia 1100 13
Georgia 1100 15 58
West Virginia 1130 5
Ohio 1130 20 83
Delaware 1200 3
District Of Columbia 1200 3
Maine 1200 4
New Hampshire 1200 4
Mississippi 1200 6
Connecticut 1200 7
Oklahoma 1200 7
Alabama 1200 9
Maryland 1200 10
Missouri 1200 11
Tennessee 1200 11
Massachusetts 1200 12
New Jersey 1200 15
Illinois 1200 21
Pennsylvania 1200 21
Florida 1200 27 254
Arkansas 1230 6
North Carolina 1230 15 275
South Dakota 1300 3
Wyoming 1300 3
Rhode Island 1300 4
Nebraska 1300 5
New Mexico 1300 5
Kansas 1300 6
Colorado 1300 9
Louisiana 1300 9
Arizona 1300 10
Minnesota 1300 10
Wisconsin 1300 10
Michigan 1300 17
New York 1300 31
Texas 1300 34 431
Montana 1400 3
Nevada 1400 5
Utah 1400 5
Iowa 1400 7 451
North Dakota 1500 3
Hawaii 1500 4
Idaho 1500 4
Oregon 1500 7
Washington 1500 11
California 1500 55 535
Alaska 1700 3 538

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Presidential election minus two days”

Comments Page 2 of 12
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  1. Obama’s grandmother died of cancer today. And his Nevada Campaign Director also died today of a heart attack at 44. Both would have been so proud tomorrow. 🙁

  2. Drudge has the leaked spin from the Repugs on how to spin the exit polls favouring Obama (funnily enough they don’t mention that 1/3 of people have already voted disproportionately Dem and I’m not sure the exit polls will accurately pick this).

    It’s psephological GOLD otherwise. It’s skewed but has oodles of great information. The full analysis is linked.

    [Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

    1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

    2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

    3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

    4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

    5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

    Conclusions

    Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.

    It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.]

    http://www.drudgereport.com/flashmm.htm

  5. What would be one of the best things if Obama wins tomorrow?
    Seeing the looks on the faces of Matt Drudge, Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity etc

  6. [Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.]
    But the exit polls will be a skewed sample, because a lot of Demoracts have already voted.

  7. ltep

    From the article

    [As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.]

    There is a lot of talk that if they call the election early based on exit polls for Obama when he wins VA and OH (unless Diebold strikes again) that disillusioned GOP voters in NM, NV and CO won’t bother voting. It’s fair enough.

  9. Dio,

    [
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, November 4, 2008 at 9:02 am | Permalink
    Obama’s grandmother died of cancer today. And his Nevada Campaign Director also died today of a heart attack at 44. Both would have been so proud tomorrow.
    ]

    Hearing that, this seems extremely shallow

    [

    Get Breaking News Alerts

    never spam
    Share Print CommentsLeaving no potential avenue of attack unexplored, the Republican National Committee has decided to bash Barack Obama over his October visit to see his ailing grandmother in Hawaii.

    Of course the visit itself is not being criticized, but rather the way the campaign paid for the nominee’s unscheduled detour.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/rnc-hits-obama-for-visit_n_140553.html
    ]

    I don’t care why they are bloody whinging about it, the timing is extremely ordinary imho 🙁 🙁

    Hope all of the Repubs roast on the funeral pyre tomorrow ……………..

  12. “Well I don’t give a crap about of the issues, including the war, the economy, healing our divided changing, generational change, social issues, health or education but that guys grandmother died so I’ll vote for him”.

    I don’t think anyone that apathetic would bother waiting in a line to vote.

  13. How long before Palin accuses Obama’s grandma of deliberately dying the day before the election to swing the undecided and therefore infringing her Constitutional right to be the dumbest, most ignorant VP ever.

  14. Since yesterday, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia has all firmed for Obama on Intrade.

    As I suspected last night, Missouri has flipped back to Obama, but it is still very close. In fact that state could be the big mystery tomorrow.

  17. “I don’t think anyone that apathetic would bother waiting in a line to vote.”

    People get pretty irrational about death in my experience. Remember when every TV station took its programming off the air for 48 hours because some minor English royal died in a car crash?

  18. Ha Ha Ha …… 😀 …..

    We want to know about poll closing times? 😀 …… CNN have a countdown ticker on their screen right now … don’t know if CNN international will have it but CNN International (at present) have cut straight away to the CNN US feed ….. count down to when the first polls close 😉

  28. Dario,
    If you want a more bombastic live stream commentary: theyoungturks.com. Check it out right now with site owner and speaker Cenk talking.

  30. [ I’d just like to say that Doonesbury makes me feel like i’m not crazy. Him and John Stewart.

    WHERE DA WHITE WOMEN AT!?]

    That comment was the exact kind of thing that I love about Stewart. He’s being funny, yes. But he’s also pointing out that the fear of Obama is so effin ridiculous. It’s one thing to not like Obama because of policy or other candidates etc but its an entire other thing to be ‘scared’ that he may in fact be the personification of the dark reaches of the human brain.

    Stewart has an ability to make light of something that is quite depressing (i.e. people giving in to that fear). And I think that helps keep me sane.

  31. Julie,
    ‘Onya for my contest update.

    Your selection of MO for tiebreaker a couple weeks ago has turned out to be spot on. It flips on Intrade daily!

  33. [Stewart has an ability to make light of something that is quite depressing (i.e. people giving in to that fear). And I think that helps keep me sane.]
    I think the best comedy is also good social commentary. Stewart and Colbert are two of the best. Colbert’s roasting of President Bush is one of the best pieces of comedy, theatre, and political activism I’ve ever seen.

    Paul Keating once said when you change a government in Australia, you change the country. Well when you change the President of the United States, you change the world.

  34. Julie,

    I check almost every day; I just only post when I’ve got something worth saying. How about the tie-tie breaker being the time at which McCain goes on stage to concede (assuming he loses)? For myself, I’d guess he’d be wondering on stage at about 11:41pm EST (or 3:41pm AEDT).

  36. al, between you and simon …. if he wants to go wtih that that works for me, we’ll just see whose time is closer ….. back later, have kids home today, ACT has melbourne cup day as a holiday ….

  37. CNN just showed Obama speech live at rally, and he needed to wipe away tears speaking about his grandmother and her common sense. Can’t imagine how he must be feeling.

  40. A week ago the Palin campaign promised to release her medical records before election day. Now it’s the evening before, and she remains the only one of the four who did not release her records. If this was a Democratic candidate, the question is whether the media would be jumping on it, but they certainly are not jumping on it.

    On the positive side, the newspaper in Cheney’s home town in Wyoming (where he was the House of Reps member long ago) has ignored his “delighted” endorsement of McCain/Palin to endorse Obama. Over 50 newspapers nationwide which endorsed Bush in 2004 have switched to endorse Obama, and only 15 have gone the other way. Kerry barely beat bush in total newspaper endorsements, but Obama has beaten McCain by over 2 to 1 and in terms of total readership 3 to 1.

  42. [A week ago the Palin campaign promised to release her medical records before election day. Now it’s the evening before, and she remains the only one of the four who did not release her records.]
    They don’t want people to know she has no brain.

  44. Glen: you call Limbaugh and Hannity credible journalists?
    That is funny!
    But if you want to put your lot in with the dregs of the far right, go ahead!

  45. After Obama’s grandmother passed away, it just highlights how sick Limbaugh’s claim last week was that Obama was only going to Hawaii to try and make sure his “birth certificate” wouldn’t be released.

  46. I call them journalists, i only hope more journalists hold Obama to account better than they have in the past year.

    I would call Limbaugh Right wing, Hannity is Right win but not a looney Right winger and Bill is Right/Centre-Right.

    The sad thing is that these people have been the only ones essentially to stand up and criticise Obama for his failings because nobody else has.

  50. Glen

    Limbaugh, Hannity and O’Reilly aren’t journalists, they are pundits. Olbermann isn’t a journalist either. They just give their opinions. That’s not journalism.

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