Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Washington | 56.5 | 39.4 | 3322 | 11 | |
| Maine | 56.6 | 40.3 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 56.1 | 41.7 | 3270 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 56.4 | 42.1 | 3232 | 17 | |
| New Mexico | 57.1 | 43.0 | 3305 | 5 | |
| New Hampshire | 55.0 | 41.7 | 3900 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 54.2 | 41.4 | 3052 | 7 | |
| Wisconsin | 53.4 | 42.1 | 3003 | 10 | |
| Colorado | 54.9 | 44.5 | 3248 | 9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.1 | 43.1 | 5479 | 21 | |
| Nevada | 51.7 | 45.2 | 3168 | 5 | |
| Virginia | 52.0 | 45.6 | 3382 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 50.6 | 46.1 | 6490 | 20 | |
| Florida | 50.0 | 46.6 | 5381 | 27 | |
| North Dakota | 47.7 | 45.7 | 1706 | 3 | |
| Montana | 48.7 | 47.4 | 3934 | 3 | |
| Missouri | 49.9 | 48.6 | 3217 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 50.1 | 49.1 | 5582 | 15 | |
| Indiana | 48.6 | 48.7 | 3834 | 11 | |
| Georgia | 47.9 | 49.9 | 3248 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 44.0 | 54.1 | 3328 | 5 | |
| Others | – | – | – | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 52.0 | 44.2 | – | 370 | 168 |
Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.
This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.
Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.
| State | Close AEDT |
Electoral Votes |
Cumulative EV |
| Vermont | 1100 | 3 | |
| Kentucky | 1100 | 8 | |
| South Carolina | 1100 | 8 | |
| Indiana | 1100 | 11 | |
| Virginia | 1100 | 13 | |
| Georgia | 1100 | 15 | 58 |
| West Virginia | 1130 | 5 | |
| Ohio | 1130 | 20 | 83 |
| Delaware | 1200 | 3 | |
| District Of Columbia | 1200 | 3 | |
| Maine | 1200 | 4 | |
| New Hampshire | 1200 | 4 | |
| Mississippi | 1200 | 6 | |
| Connecticut | 1200 | 7 | |
| Oklahoma | 1200 | 7 | |
| Alabama | 1200 | 9 | |
| Maryland | 1200 | 10 | |
| Missouri | 1200 | 11 | |
| Tennessee | 1200 | 11 | |
| Massachusetts | 1200 | 12 | |
| New Jersey | 1200 | 15 | |
| Illinois | 1200 | 21 | |
| Pennsylvania | 1200 | 21 | |
| Florida | 1200 | 27 | 254 |
| Arkansas | 1230 | 6 | |
| North Carolina | 1230 | 15 | 275 |
| South Dakota | 1300 | 3 | |
| Wyoming | 1300 | 3 | |
| Rhode Island | 1300 | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 1300 | 5 | |
| New Mexico | 1300 | 5 | |
| Kansas | 1300 | 6 | |
| Colorado | 1300 | 9 | |
| Louisiana | 1300 | 9 | |
| Arizona | 1300 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 1300 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 1300 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 1300 | 17 | |
| New York | 1300 | 31 | |
| Texas | 1300 | 34 | 431 |
| Montana | 1400 | 3 | |
| Nevada | 1400 | 5 | |
| Utah | 1400 | 5 | |
| Iowa | 1400 | 7 | 451 |
| North Dakota | 1500 | 3 | |
| Hawaii | 1500 | 4 | |
| Idaho | 1500 | 4 | |
| Oregon | 1500 | 7 | |
| Washington | 1500 | 11 | |
| California | 1500 | 55 | 535 |
| Alaska | 1700 | 3 | 538 |
It’s religion Glen. It addles heads I tell you.
I hope the sycophantic left-wing bloggers in the US actually hold Obama to all the promises he’s made and don’t just capitulate and turn into apologists like their right-wing counterparts.
Oz, I do. Medical records are noone’s business but our own.
Of course they will Oz, you only need to read Australian political blogs to see the same thing happening.
Classic Red State Update Video
Red State Update: Obama’s Aunt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-TLRM1vUTY
Even they think Obama will win.
Bill O’Reilly is a journalist, he’s giving opinions nows though.
Glen
Being a critic of a popular adminstration does not make you influential. Ask all those cast out of the Whitehouse pressroom in the lead up to Iraq how influential they are.
Election eve in Chicago – every news story here is about the bloody election.
All the talk in Chicago is about Obama’s election night party, how much tickets cost and what you should do if you don’t have tickets.
There is virtually no talk of a McCain win atm, although every Democrat on TV is cautioning against complacency.
As an aside, last night, when I was driving back from New Hampshire to Boston, I saw McCain’s motorcade going to other way to address a rally in Peterborough. I’ve got to say – he has one huge motorcade – at least 20 vehicles plus the “Straight Talk Express” bus.
Everything in the US is bigger than Australia – politics included.
Juiliem
An eleventh hour update to EV guess:
353 – Obama to win VA,FL & NC but fall short of MO
Colorardo as the the first state over the 270 line
Do you have a summary of predictions floating around anywhere?
What do you mean? Do you mean they will hold him to account or turn into apologists?
I don’t think the left-wing bloggers in Australia are anywhere near in love with Labor as the “left” are with Obama in the US.
They will turn into apologists. Just wait and see. I beg to differ on your second sentence.
George W Bush thinks of HIMSELF as a prophet. That’s much worse.
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/11/michigan-electi.html
Can we even take this election seriously?
Why didn’t they publish the exact figures?
Were they out by 10%, or 0.1%?
For sure Glen, that’s the same “libral” US media that blew out of all proportion the importance of first, Rev. Wright, and then Bill Ayres, and third, Joe the Plumber.
And the same US media gave Sarah Palin an easy run with no press conferences and no release of medical records, and most particularly on the finding that she’d violated Alaska’s ethics statutes. No doubt they will not, for the next 4 years, be even slightly critical of Obama!
“Smears and marks” are what they Count Clerk said contribute to them being read differently every time.
I think going from a margin of 750 votes (25%) to 158 (4%) is fairly significant…
jj @ 90,
They’ve got more important things to deal with. Republicans are giving me ulcers today 🙁 ……
I wonder if the rumors about Trig are true and that is why she doesn’t want to release her medical records?
*County clerk.
There must be something going on for them to withold it
Which rumours? That Trig is actually her grandson?
I always thought it was a strange coincidence that that when that rumour started floating around, it was the very next day that Palin announced her daughter was pregnant.
108, got that no worries 🙂 …. see #88 the US thread JUST prior to this one. it has the list excepting about a half dozen or so changes in the last 24 hours.
worktorule, you made one heap of a big change 😉 …. glad to see you are “getting in sync with the news” 😀 …….
Juliem
Thought I’d better take a crack at the prediction game. So here goes
EVs Obama 319
The tipping state: Colorado
Missouri: No – will not go with the winner for just the second time in 100+ years. But just a handful of votes in it.
Oz @ 119,
While I don’t trade in rumors (if I get any piece of political news from a website that I don’t trust, I always try to verify it), take this as my .02 worth.
I don’t know how much time you’ve spent around females who’ve been pregnant in your life? I’m 47 and have had 4 kids over my adult life. I know from my own experience what a woman looks like at various stages of pregnancy, whether she is or is not carrying a lot of extra pregnancy weight. I saw a pic of Palin (when I was doing my own net research on this topic around the time of the RNC) that was taken, if the caption was accurate, when she was 7 months along. There is no WAY that was a picture of a 7 months pregnant woman. I was bigger than that when I was only 3 months along. Nicole was bigger than that when was 9 months along with Sunday Rose. Uh, no. Somethings rotten in Wasilla, Alaska.
Darn, got that in for you 🙂 ….. deadline for one and all for changes or entries, 10pm tonight …..
juliem,
Yep, I’ve been expected a narrowing for the last few weeks – can’t see anything like that happening now.
Still wondering about such factors as democrat strength on the ground, under sampling of the youth vote, early votes being locked away and not subject to any late swing and the potentual for capitulation from the republican voters.
Guess we’ll have to wait and see – can’t see any way home to McCain.
The second Troopergate report is due out any minute apparently… should be fun 🙂
ltep @ 110
I agree with you on both counts. If Howie did some of the things Rudd has done people here would have gone berserk. It’ll be the same in the US. Decent commentators like Glenn Greenwald won’t fall for it but most will.
On Palin and her medical records, there has to be something bad in there or she would have released them. If they said she’s fit and never had a problem, they would be out. My guess is that she has had a mental illness, most probably post-natal depression, which has fully resolved but she remembers what happened to Eagleton.
Strange that Fox aren’t chasing Palin’s medical records the way they have been chasing that tape which allegedly reveals Obama as an anti-semite.
This is the mob who have the gall to criticise other media outlets for taking sides. Hypocrites.
Obama now leads in Indiana, Montana and Missouri on my polling aggregates.
Palin cleared of wrongdoing by second troopergate report.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D947PVBG0&show_article=1
Is this the one she wrote with her own crayolas?
Bill O’Riely is a moron because he thinks everyone is entitled to their own truth. People that can’t differentiate opinions from truth are by definition moronic.
i saw that hollywood stars will commit suicide and there will be blood in the streets if Obama does not win tomorrow. hmmmm, is this democracy 2008 style and the chosen one? mandate from heaven to win?
My fellow black travelling companions from LA, who have pre-voted for Obama, still think there is no certainty. Like me, they also think Obama should be 15+, even at this late stage. Mr. Bradley is still awaiting with a baseball bat.
Diog, my Macchu Picchu message could still be right. dont count your chickens yet. cheers from Bariloche, the most beuatiful spot my eyes have seen so far in my travels.
Finns
G’day mate! Have you had that “Diogenes was right” T-shirt made up yet? Obama would be 15% plus up if he was running against Bush, Cheney or Rummie but McCain was the Repugs most electable candidate and they did well to choose him, just as Obama was the Dems most electable candidate and they did well to choose him.
It’s the one written by the Alaska Personnel Board – a few people hand selected by Palin and whose jobs rely upon Palin’s good favour.
Compare that to the bi-partisan legislative commission made up of people who are responsible to Palin, but the electors.
The normally mild-mannered Josh Marshall spat the dummy today on the subject of Sarah Palin. Made me laugh out loud, so I’ll share his assessment with youse:
Argentina is incredible, lucky guy.
Well now folks, here it is election day, and I hate to say it when you’ve all opened the champagne already, but it’s still close enough to go either way. These are Obama’s current leads: IA 13%, NM 8%, CO 7%, NV 6%, OH 5%, VA 5%, FL 4%, NC 2%. Obviously IA is safe for Obama, and NM probably so. He only needs one more, and CO and NV look pretty good. But in a country with voluntary voting, an antiquated and corrupt electoral system and a deep, hidden vein of racism, who can say how accurate these polls really are? I expect a late narrowing. Kindly recall that after all the abuse heaped on people who said last year there would be a narrowing, there was indeed a narrowing. Narrowing happens – when people are contemplating a shift to the left, some lose their nerve at the last minute. So Obama may well not carry FL or NC. It will then come down to CO, NV, OH and VA. Obama is ahead in all of them, but they are within the “range of loseability.”
My biggest gripe with the polls is how wildly divergent they’ve been. Yes they’ve all got Obama in front, and I still expect him to win, but they continue to fluctuate between 2-15 points up.
I don’t except the final result to be anything like the RCP prediction William has at the top.
jjulian1009
“That’s the same “libral” US media that blew out of all proportion the importance of first, Rev. Wright, and then Bill Ayres, and third, Joe the Plumber.”
Ahh Rev. Wright was Obamas pastor for 20 years, Bill Ayres was an aquaintence of Obama and Obama couldnt convince Joe that he’d be better off under his tax plan.
If you cannot criticise Obama on any of these then how can you?
For someone who listens to Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s sermons every Sunday and has a wife who says she was only proud to be an American when her husband was nominated and who felt…Obama is not your average American.
134 – How did Argentina ever spiral down to almost to a third world country is still a big puzzle, even to the locals. argentine beef is simply sensetional. there is nothing like it in OZ. Save your money to come to a hotel calleds Lhao Lhao here atBariloche, it? as close as to heaven you get on earth. better than swiss, norway and our friend at NZ.
I agree but Obama only has to win one of them. Even if you make each one 50/50, the chance of McCain winning all four is 16/1. I’ve gone with Obama winning CO, NV and VA with Diebold getting McCain over the line in OH (again).
Glen, I think Joe the Plumber is a dead horse. His name’s not Joe, he’s not a plumber, he doesn’t earn 250,000 a year, he’d be better off under Obama’s tax plan and he’s a proved liar.
The voters know all there is to know about Ayers and Wright, and they don’t much care. What are Ayers and Wright compared to Enron and $70bn to clean up Bush’s mess on Wall St? Bupkes.
concise view of each candidates policies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/04/john-mccain-barack-obama-policies
The odds on an electoral college win are stacked up McCain will need Florida, Ohio and to manage to win from way behind, CO, VA, NV and maybe NH to make up for New Mexico.
Obama is the clear favourite, McCain only if the narrowing continues and there is a Bradley effect.
How you can trust VA? CO and NV seem to more favourable to Obama then I expected earlier on, and with a 50/50 chance he’ll win one of them.
IMF.
His middle name is Joe.
Well if Obama is happy listening to anti-american, anti-white statements from Jeremiah Wright every Sunday and his wife was never proud of her country till now they are bloody important.
Diogenes, I probably agree, but I always try to remember that psephology is not an exact science, and particularly not in the US, where irrationalism reigns at so many levels.
Glen, not to the voters. You said the same thing last year about “union bosses”, remember?
The next someone mentions the “I’m an idiot pollster who can’t accept I made a mistake” effect I will hunt them down and throw their computer, tv and radio out the window. No coverage for you!
WE’RE COMIN’ BACK!