Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll of federal voting intention shows no change on Labor’s 57.5-42.5 two-party lead in the previous survey. Both parties are down 0.5 per cent on the primary vote since the previous face-to-face poll, Labor to 46 per cent and the Coalition to 36 per cent. Morgan also provides preferred leader ratings which show a substantial improvement for Kevin Rudd since the survey conducted three weeks ago, immediately after Malcolm Turnbull became Liberal leader. Rudd is up from 55 per cent to 62.5 per cent, while Turnbull is down from 30 per cent to 24 percent.

Other news:

• The Western Australian Liberal Party is apparently set to extend its dismal record on female representation following Deidre Willmott’s withdrawal from the race to fill the retiring Chris Ellison’s Senate vacancy. Willmott stood aside as candidate for Cottesloe before the state election to allow Colin Barnett to go back on his retirement plans and assume the party leadership. The party thus emerged from the election with two women in the lower house out of 24, both back-benchers in marginal seats. The West Australian (which made three passing references to the state of the Liberals’ female representation during the state election campaign, two of them favourable) reported earlier this week that Willmott withdrew from the Senate race after “internal discontent with her move surfaced following the Liberal Party’s State council meeting”. This prompted Willmott to say she believed it would be “difficult to get the level of support required”. Today’s Financial Review reports that the race is now between two state party office holders, senior vice-president Anthony Jarvis and treasurer Dean Smith, with the former starting favourite.

• Frequent Poll Bludger commenter and occasional Greens candidate Ben Raue has started an excellent new psephological blog called The Tally Room.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

241 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. My experience with these kind of programs is that they probably filmed for an hour, cut out any bloopers or silly questions and left in the good stuff.

  2. Oh Kochie… just turned into a mouthpiece of Turnbull.

    “What is treasury telling you? How bad is it?”

    STFU KOCHIE. Stick to magazine journalism on Sunrise.

  3. PM Rudd didn’t say anything new. Same sort of statements that he has been making in the media all last week. A friendly audience by the look of it. I’m not to sure if it will do any good, other than stop the natives from panicking too much. Will Turnbull demand of Ch 7 a right of reply.?

  4. I’ll say, Vera. I felt like throwing up after seeing the first minute or so.

    I’m still on a rush from Super Saturday v2. FEED ME ELECTIONS.

  5. “When governments intervene in free markets they need to make no more intervention than is absolutely necessary because you can have unintended consequences that are adverse.”

    Malcolm Bligh Turnbull.

    Put this away for later reference.

  6. i love the fact that Turnbull says things at the right time to sound totally things. He is obviously ignorant what world govts are doing. Now he souods like he doesnt want to fix the causes.

  7. I think his “unintended consequences” are stopping things like Gold by the Sacks making $4 billion profit short selling sub-prime loans. 🙁

  8. Put this away for later reference


    You can hardly blame a drowning man gasping for breath, however in this case, I think I will 😉

  9. “Rudd’s performance was extraordinary on the Channel 7: ‘minding your money, an audience with the PM’ program tonight. He was relaxed, comfortable and forthcoming. He focused on answering questions rather than reciting messages. The audience loved it. Performances like this will do Rudd and the government a lot of good. I guess it was filmed in Sydney because the anti-state government sentiment was huge. So was the antagonism towards excessive CEO salaries. It was particularly good that Rudd dealt with the audience directly without the intervention of a moderator.”

    Give Trevor Cook a boost at poor blogger hasn’t had a comment in yonks. 😉

  10. ruawake,

    Have to agree with your assessment. While watching the program I thought to myself that I could never imaging Howard exposing himself in such a vulnerable way.

    I thought that Rudd handled himself well and demonstrated a deal of confidence in his ability to pull it off.

    A few more exposures like this and it won’t matter what Turnbull or the MSM try to portray to assist the Coalitions’ standing with the electorate. The electorate will make up its own mind about Rudd and the competence, ability of the Government he leads.

    As it stands at the moment, it holds Rudd and Labor in fairly high esteem. The Coalition are going to have to step up their performance to a much higher level to make any inroads much at all into the confidence level that the ALP has with the electorate, Federally.

  11. [“When governments intervene in free markets they need to make no more intervention than is absolutely necessary because you can have unintended consequences that are adverse.”]

    This shows just how out of touch Turnbull is. This would be a comical statement if it wasn’t so serious and supposedly from an alternative government.

    He wants us to be careful in the free market intervention because?

    It might toss the world into a multi trillion dollar hole? Might ruin the finance system? Might cause a recession or even in the USA a depression?

    Hang on, didn’t that just happen?

    I view Turnbull with utter contempt now. The advice should have been the opposite. Don’t be too timid in fixing up the causes of the current world problems.

    Why would Turnbull come out and say such moronic stuff?

    1. Open mouth, need to say something, anything. The Homer Simpson method.
    2. Protect mates in the business so they can get their filled the same old way.
    3. Trying to show off to the Republicans and neocons in the Liberal party.

  12. Yep agreed – the program itself was stupid – how long were those freakin ad breaks? But Rudd was very at ease (nice crack about the Rabbitos). He was very good with the woman who was obviously very nervous.

    And it compares brilliantly with Turnbull’s Insiders spiel:
    [And Kevin Rudd has hyped up this crisis or this financial crisis by saying it’s a rolling national security crisis.]

    Hyped it up?? What panet is this guy on?

    plus this bull:
    [John Howard, were he Prime Minister today, would have given a ministerial statement in the Parliament and the Opposition leader would have then had the opportunity to respond. ]

    Noone ignored parliamentary conventions more than Howard. From memory he didn’t even make a ministerial statement on going to war in Iraq!

  13. Homer Turnbull.

    Mouth open, must say something.
    Brain help me.
    Interest rates are a fairy tale?
    No, Iv’e heard that one before somewhere.
    Ohhhhhh I need an intervention.
    Ahh thats it brain. Intervention care what not happen banks careful watch out didn’t mean that free.

    “When governments intervene in free markets they need to make no more intervention than is absolutely necessary because you can have unintended consequences that are adverse.”

    Give me 5 brain.

    [Lisa – Daaaad thats backwards.]


  14. Turnbull is not letting Liberal Party culture fade. He is continuing on with being a world class capital HYPOCRITE.

    IMHO, the cancer cell of this financial crisis originated from extravagant executive salaries. Not because of their greed to make as much money as possible so they could award themselves with obscene bonuses, but because they are paid in a way which rewards success or failure regardless.

    Don’t believe the spin that this problen can only be fixed globally or that if salaries are not obscene we risk losing the best people overseas. Absolute Garbage!

  15. The solution to the problem of paying executives obscene salaries with no real onus on them to perform (hell, I’d be taking golf days and three hour lunches and body messages as well if I was on guaranteed $10m regardless) is:

    – Any amount over 100 times the average yearly income should be taxed at 80 cents in the dollar.

    Now 100 times and at 80 cents in the dollar is real freakin generous, coming from me.

  16. Another way is to cap executive salaries at 30x whatever the lowest worker in the company gets paid.

    Let’s see who the Government copies, Centre!

  17. I’m tipping the next ACN poll to be a record result for Labor. Of course, considering that I was polled, my sample will help that to be the case. 🙂

  18. In the interest of his party and himself, what else would you expect Turnbull to say?

    Taking the best out of a bad pick, seems reasonable to me

  19. Sometimes governments do the right thing. The Opposition should support what it is or enhance it or say nothing. The desire to think up something negative to hopefully damage something correct is daft and deserves condemnation.

  20. A virtuoso performance from the Ruddster, very much in his element tonight!
    All those years of doing SUNRISE sure helped!
    Meanwhile the ABC continues to give us an overdose of Turnball, day after day! I’m tired of the national broadcaster being a mouthpiece for the Liberal Party.
    The funny thing is that commercial television is more even handed these days.

  21. It is a very funny article, more so because it touches reality.

    [Demand for a new investment bubble began months ago, when the subprime mortgage bubble burst and left the business world without a suitable source of pretend income. But as more and more time has passed with no substitute bubble forthcoming, investors have begun to fear that the worst-case scenario—an outcome known among economists as “real-world repercussions”—may be inevitable.

    “Every American family deserves a false sense of security,” said Chris Reppto, a risk analyst for Citigroup in New York. “Once we have a bubble to provide a fragile foundation, we can begin building pyramid scheme on top of pyramid scheme, and before we know it, the financial situation will return to normal.”]

  22. TP 216

    Turnbull’s comment is hypocritical at so many levels. Consider the following interventions in the free market the previous government considered perfectly OK:
    – tax penalties on people who chose not to have private health insurance
    – tax subsidies to industries like mining and farming (diesel fuel rebate)
    – permit employers to associate freely but employee organisations (unions) could not
    – increased deductions to encourage people to invest in superanuation (but the losses aren’t their fault!)

    There is no noble free market “philosophy” at work in all this. Its just a continuation of old style class warfare: rich vs poor. Help your friends, punish your enemies.

  23. TP 233
    Thats a great quote! It also underlies exactly why sometimes government has to step in. We have a huge bunch of baby-boomers frantically saving for their retirement but not enough genuine invetment beign done to match its value. Hence the existing assets get over valued. So if the market is not producing enough capital investment, government should do it. At themoment (thanksot Howards pork binge) there is too much consumption and not enough real long term capital investment.

  24. Thanks Listy, thats what I would have expected. I think Rudd and Swan (and even more so Tanner) have handled this quite well. The scare campaign coming from the opposition, in the midst of an obvious market panic, has been quite against the national interest.

    Of course, the fact that Rudd and Swan have gone up while the NSW bi-election results have been terrible shows that ther ecan be only one place ot put the blame for the latter. If Labor doesn’t put the broom throuhg the NSW organisation they have only themeselves to blame for the mess.

  25. Goodness, it looks as though another of kevin Rudd’s hair-brained schemes, pulled out of thin air without any consultation, seems to have been taken up by a number of very influential people from a number of important nations.

    [The first meeting of the newly-established International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament is to be held in Sydney on Monday.

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd proposed the ICNND in June after visiting Hiroshima in Japan, which had been devastated by a nuclear bomb at the end of the Second World War.

    Mr Rudd last month said the commission had a two-year mandate to reinvigorate the global debate on preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and for nuclear disarmament.]

    [A total of 13 commissioners have been announced, with most to attend the two-day meeting starting in Sydney.

    They include Ali Alatas from Indonesia, Alexei Arbatov from Russia, Jehangir Karamat from Pakistan, former US secretary of defence William Perry and China’s Wang Yingfan.]

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